Measuring the Combine

The 2014 NFL Scouting Combine is underway in Indianapolis. The prospects have been weighed and measures, and they are now going through their on-field workouts. And for the first time, the biggest discussion concerning the quarterbacks has been the hand measurements. I have already posted about why I feel the Houston Texans should take Teddy Bridgewater with the 1st Overall Pick of the draft. Now there are concerns about the size of his hands and whether he can hold onto the ball and make accurate passes in bad weather. I get the feeling that analysts are trying to raise the bar on nit-picking in leading up to the draft. Don't get me wrong. I understand the concerns. If a quarterback has a bigger hand, they can hold on to the ball better, especially in colder weather. But don't they make gloves to help a quarterback do just that? Jim McMahon wore gloves back in 1985 for the Chicago Bears, and he said it helped him throw a better pass. So much that he even wore them in the Super Bowl indoors at the Superdome. So to me that is less of a concern. But if you want to see how well Bridgewater can handle bad weather, go back and take a look at his game film from his sophomore season at Louisville. Having watched the Cardinals play that season on their way to the Sugar Bowl, Bridgewater played in rain and even more rain in over half of the games that season. Bridgewater played exceptionally all season, and I have no doubts that he can handle the weather in the NFL. What does worry me about Bridgewater is that he will not be participating in on-field drills at The Combine. I'm watching the wide receivers work out now, and they are catching passes from Blake Bortles and A.J. McCarron. I have always been a foremost advocate of quarterbacks throwing in the receiver drills, as it shows just how quickly a passer can adapt to changing instructions and how well they can adjust to different receivers. But Johnny Manziel and Derek Carr are not throwing in these drills either, for what it's worth. When I see a a quarterback not throw at The Combine, I think back to Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. Newton did throw, and didn't look very good. Gabbert didn't throw at all, on the advice of his agent, just like Bridgewater, Manziel and Carr this year. But the teams saw the ability and desire of Newton to work on his game, and he threw much better at his Pro Day. It almost looked like Gabbert was trying to hide his flaws, and those have been exposed in his time with the Jaguars. If I were giving advice to a quarterback, I'd tell him to go out and throw as much as possible at The Combine, show how much and how readily you are wanting to learn, and to have fun. Go out and show that the size of your hands have no bearing on how well you can throw the ball. But most of all have fun and enjoy yourself. It's a job interview. Show your potential employers how much you enjoy playing football, and how much your chosen path means to you. It's tough to do that standing on the sidelines.

2014 DSA Player Rankings 1.0

It is time to reveal the first DSA Player Rankings from the TMG Draft Zone for 2014. Apologies for the delay in bringing the rankings to you as work has delayed my research in the past week. But I have been putting together the mock drafts, and the first DSA's of the year have proved that this year is going to be all about star power at the top of the draft. The Houston Texans have yet to tip their hand as to who they may take with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, and I do not suspect they will any time soon. So mock drafts everywhere have Houston taking any number of players at the top. The Texans need a quarterback, and you can find mocks with Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, or Johnny Manziel listed first. Or they could go for the best player in the draft, and you will also for Jadaveon Clowney rated at the top. But you will also find the three quarterbacks as far down as #8 to Minnesota, and Clowney no more then 5th to Oakland. Which is why Clowney leads the way in the first DSA Player Rankings of 2014. Sammy Watkins edged out Jake Matthews for the fifth slot, but they took very different paths to get there. Watkins can be found in just about any mock draft in the neighborhood of #5 to #7 for Tampa Bay. Matthews has as many postings at #2 to St. Louis as he does at #11 to Tennessee. The top 9 slots are rounded out by Greg Robinson, Khalil Mack, and Anthony Barr. It would not be much of a stretch to say, even this early in the process, that these nine players will be the first names called going down to Buffalo and their pick at #9. The one player would could easily find his way there is Derek Carr. Carr is #18, but 40% of the mock drafts I researched did not list him in the first round, and the others all had him at #8 to Minnesota. Carr certainly has to talent to compete with the top three QB's, and his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and pro day at Fresno State will go a long way to determining where he goes in the draft. I have already written about the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Clowney at #3, then getting their quarterback in Round 2. If Carr does get past the Vikings in Round 1, I wonder how frantic the phone lines will be in the Jags draft office to make a trade. I can picture the Cleveland Browns being a likely trading partner with the 26th Pick they acquired from Indianapolis. If the Browns take a QB at #4, they may want to add more draft picks to their already sizable stockpile this year. Jacksonville would be moving up nine spots, and sending their second rounder plus a couple of late round picks, or a higher pick next year, could very well net the Jaguars a top flight signal caller to build around this coming season. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 1.0, exclusive to the TMG Draft Zone, for the 2014 NFL Draft: 1) Jadaveon Clowney 2.60 2) Teddy Bridgewater 3.00 3) Blake Bortles 3.70 4) Johnny Manziel 3.70 5) Sammy Watkins 5.50 6) Jake Matthews 5.80 7) Greg Robinson 6.70 8) Khalil Mack 7.70 9) Anthony Barr 8.80 10) C.J. Mosley 13.00 11) Taylor Lewan 14.40 12) Darqueze Dennard 15.00 13) Mike Evans 15.70 14) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 16.10 15) Eric Ebron 16.60 16) Marquise Lee 17.40 17) Justin Gilbert 18.90 18) Derek Carr 19.10 19) Cyrus Kouandijo 20.00 20) Ra'Shade Hageman 22.30 21) Louis Nix 22.80 22) Calvin Pryor 23.60 23) Zack Martin 24.60 24) Kony Ealy 24.80 25) Kelvin Benjamin 24.90 26) Tim Jernigan 26.60 27) Jace Amaro 28.90 28) Jason Varrett 29.40 29) Stephon Tuitt 30.10 30) Allen Robinson 30.60 31) Aaron Donald 30.60 32) Odell Beckham 31.50 Three players I want to keep an eye on up to and just past the NFL Scouting Combine, and where they start to find themselves in mock drafts everywhere, and Eric Ebron, Kelvin Benjamin, and Calvin Pryor. Ebron and Benjamin are both physical marvels, but Ebron has the polish and Benjamin is a work in progress. But teams love to have big targets such as these 2, and I can see both moving up draft boards everywhere. As for Pryor, teams are really starting to go with the physical safeties to play the middle of the field, and though Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix has long been seen as the top player at that position, there are many who see Pryor as one with just as much talent as Clinton-Dix, and the value placed at the position recently could move him up to the middle of the first round, possible to St. Louis at #13. The NFL Scouting Combine is coming up in less than 3 weeks, and it will be interesting to see who is getting some buzz talk going before, and then who will be the biggest winner coming out of Indianapolis later this month.

Mock Draft Mode

The TMG Draft Zone had to take a break as I have been in the process of moving, and finding the time to write has been a bit on the difficult side lately. But now that I have just about everything in place once again, and with a week before the Super Bowl, it is just about time to get back into Mock Draft Mode here in the Draft Zone. As you all know, I do not put out my first mock draft until after the Super Bowl. I believe in getting the draft order set (unless there is a coin flip to determine a spot in the order) before trying to figure out who will be going where come draft time. But publishing mock drafts is now a year round business, and they have been coming fast and furious lately. The latest one I read has caused me to want to reveal who is going to be at the top of my first mock draft, and he will be at the top of all the mocks I put forth unless the Houston Texans go out and pick up a quarterback somewhere. I have seen Johnny Manziel listed at #1, along with Jadaveon Clowney, and just today I looked at a mock draft that had Blake Bortles going first overall. Houston needs a quarterback, and I will put Teddy Bridgewater in the top spot until the Texans make a deal to get a new signal caller in this off season, if they do at all. I have lived in the Louisville area the last 6 years, but that is not the reason I am putting Bridgewater at the top. He is by far the most pro ready quarterback with the fewest question marks going in to the draft, and he will be the best of the group down the road. I listened to a number of Louisville games on the radio, and I cannot tell you the number of times I heard the announcers complain that the Cardinals were running a boring offense. It was the type of offense where the quarterback took snaps from under center, handed the ball off to the running backs, ran play action passes, passed the ball from the pocket, where he used his mobility to makes plays outside the pocket in space to find an open receiver, and could run for first downs when no one was open. Does this sound familiar? It should. It is called a PRO OFFENSE. Bridgewater is not going to need to be schooled in how the pros run their offenses when he gets to the NFL. He has been running that system already. His accuracy from the pocket and on the move is tremendous. Can he make plays in the open field? Take a look at the last two plays against Cincinnati this year. He scrambled out and got a first down running backwards, then threw a touchdown pass from more than 30 yards as he was being pulled down to the ground to win the game. Some will say he played against inferior competition in conference play? Take a look at what he did against Florida in the Sugar Bowl and Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Others will point out that he is slight of frame. I'm sure that he is already on a training regiment that will get him more muscle, and no one should question his toughness after playing with a broken wrist in 2012 to clinch the Big East title and a BCS Bowl bid. But what I am looking to see out of Bridgewater at the NFL Scouting Combine is what he scores on the Wonderlic test. People I have talked to in Louisville who know Bridgewater say that he is one of the smartest, most intelligent people they have met. He graduated in 2 1/2 years while playing football, and his athletic ability on the field might even be surpassed by his intelligence level off the gridiron. There have been a number of quarterbacks taken high in the draft who failed miserably in the NFL, and too many of them did not have the prowess above the neck to match what they had below it. I'll be putting out my first mock draft next week, and you will see Teddy Bridgewater at the top. And unless the Houston Texans make a bold move to trade out of the top spot of go out and get another quarterback, you will be seeing Teddy at the top until the 2014 NFL Draft commences in May.

The Year of The Pretty Boys

It's getting to be that time of year. It's NFL Draft Season, and the TMG Draft Zone is back. If the 2013 NFL Draft was known for not having a sure fire star at the top, the 2014 Draft will be known for possibly having too many big names to choose from. Who will be going where, and who will be drafting them, will be discussed at length for the next 4 months. The 2013 NFL Draft will be known as The Year of The Big Uglies. The top seven selections were offensive or defensive lineman. The first skill player chosen was Tavon Austin by the St. Louis Rams, who engineered a trade with Buffalo to move up eight slots and take the dynamic playmaker. The New York Jets followed with cornerback Dee Milliner, then 4 of the next 5 players selected were lineman. Only one quarterback was selected in the first round, with Buffalo taking E.J. Manuel in the 16th slot with the pick they acquired from the Rams in the Austin trade. No running backs went in Round 1, though Giovanni Bernard and Eddie Lacy had big impacts for Cincinnati and Green Bay after going in Round 2. The 2014 NFL Draft will see no such dispersal of position players. It will be The Year of The Pretty Boys. The Quarterback Draft. I caught some grief for making a bold prediction last year that 5 quarterbacks would go in Round 1 of the draft, as the yearly Panic In The Draft Room would set in. Although only one was taken, 6 rookie quarterbacks wound up starting a game in 2013, so I do feel some vindication with my prediction. There was panic, it just waited to hit in season. This year the Panic In The Draft Room will hit long before draft night. It will hit a team hard and they are going to make a bold move up the boards to get the player they want. But this year, the teams that are truly in need of a quarterback are already at the top of the draft. It is going to come down to who REALLY WANTS their man. The quarterbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft are going to command much of the attention this year, and rightfully so. The top three at this time are Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Johnny Manziel. Bortles has the NFL prototype size and arm strentgh, Manziel can make plays all over the field, and Bridgewater combines the best of what NFL teams are looking for: accuracy, intelligence, leadership. It will not be a bold prediction to say that these three players will go in the top 5, and it would not be one either to add Derek Carr into the top 5 as well. The younger brother of former 1st Overall Pick David Carr matches up well with Bortles physically and many see him as having the best upside of all the top prospects. As good as these four players are looking right now, take a look at what you might call Tier 2 of the quarterbacks. A.J. McCarron, who won two national titles at Alabama. Tajh Boyd, who led Clemson to a Top 10 season and an Orange Bowl win. Zach Mettenberger and Aaron Murray are coming off of knee injuries, but both were considered Heisman candidates at the start of the season. both should be ready to go by the start of training camps. I have long said that teams picking at the top of the draft have just as important of a selection at the start of Round 2. There are first round talents there, and making the right choice can prove to be just as much of a windfall as the player taken in Round 1. Jacksonville did well in selecting Jonathon Cyprien, and Philadelphia got a steal at tight end with Zack Ertz. I wonder how many teams are going to look at the quarterbacks in the 2014 Draft, see a player who fits their needs and they can get in Round 2, and then take the player who is going to have the biggest impact right away in Round 1. Quarterbacks are going to rule the day in May, but if need a pass rusher or offensive line help as well as a quarterback, I wonder how many teams are going to make the bold move and take Jadaveon Clowney or Jake Matthews and then roll the dice on a quarterback later on in the draft. But in the NFL, you must have the right man at the quarterback position. So the Pretty Boys are going to fly off the draft board like never before. Can you imagine a talent like Clowney falling to Atlanta at #6, and then adding him to a team that fell hard last year due mostly to injuries on both sides of the ball but is just one year removed for the NFC Championship game? The Falcons can sit and wait, and like everyone else they are going to have four months to think it over.