2014 NFL Draft Grades: AFC South

The Indianapolis Colts ran away with the 2013 AFC South title, but the free fall of the Houston Texans from two time division champ to 14 game losing streak was painful to watch. The Texans got the prize of the 1st Overall Selection of the 2014 draft, and they grabbed the biggest prize on the board. Houston Texans: A Best Pick: Jadeveon Clowney Late Round Sleeper: Tom Savage Clowney is a supreme talent, and with everyone questioning his motivation I see him playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. At least until he signs his second contract. But the Texans hit all the high notes with their picks at the Top of the draft. Xavier Su'a-Filo will be an anchor on the interior of the offensive line. C.J. Fiedorowicz is a big target but he excels as a run blocker. One of the biggest steals of the draft was Louis Nix falling into the middle of the third round. Many thought the Texans would select a quarterback early, but getting Tom Savage on Day 3 could be their long term solution to a shaky quarterback problem. Indianapolis Colts: C Best Pick: Donte Moncrief Late Round Sleeper: Ulrick John The Colts did not have a first round pick, as theirs was traded to Cleveland for Trent Richardson. The success of this draft class will be tied in to how well Richardson performs for the Clots. They can only hope it will be better than last year. Jack Mewhort is a tough-minded offensive lineman who could move inside for the Colts. Donte Moncrief could be a long term replacement to Reggie Wayne. Late round sleeper Ulrick John could also find some playing time on the offensive line. Jacksonville Jaguars: A+ Best Pick: Blake Bortles Late Round Sleeper: Storm Johnson The Jaguars hit the jackpot in the 2014 NFL Draft. They got their franchise quarterback in Blake Bortles. They got two excellent receivers to replace Justin Blackmon when they selected Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in Round 2. They beefed up the offensive line with the picks of Brandon Linder and Luke Bowanko. The secondary got two talented prospects in Aaron Colvin and Telvin Smith, and the defense got a pass rusher in Chris Smith. The Jaguars final pick in the draft was Bortles teammate at Central Florida, Storm Johnson. Johnson could get a lot of reps in the backfield with the departure of Maurice Jones-Drew. Tennessee Titans: B Best Pick: Bishop Sankey Late Round Sleeper: Zach Mettenberger The Titans stuck to their Best Player Available philosophy and selected Taylor Lewan in Round 1. The Titans offensive line is deep but Lewan is too talented to have sit on the sidelines, and pairing him up with last years first rounder Chance Warmack will go a long way to aiding the development of Jake Locker. Second round pick Sankey looks to replace Chris Johnson in the starting backfield. DaQuan Jones will add depth to the defensive line. Getting Mettenberger late in the draft could be a top sleeper pick if Locker continues to struggle.

Twas The Night Before The NFL Draft

Twas The Night Before The NFL Draft And all around Radio City Music Hall The prospects began to gather Including Jadeveon Clowney and Johnny Football What many teams are looking for Is an offensive tackle to take There are plenty to choose from Including Cyrus, Greg, Taylor and Jake. Playmakers found on offense Must be more than looks The receivers are talented With Beckham, Benjamin, Lee and Cooks Teams are looking for hitters That can make the quarterback sack Attention will be paid To Anthony Barr, Ryan Shazier and Khalil Mack The big stoppers up front Have always been premium picks This year you have Aaron Donald Along with Tim Jernigan and Louis Nix. But at the top of the draft Fans will be on needles and pins To see if their team will select Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. As always fans will want A quarterback who is ready Is it going to be Bortles, Carr, or a QB named Teddy. As the league passes it around The field more and more Corners like Gilbert, Dennard, Fuller and Verrett Will be picked to lower the score. Safeties are becoming stars Because teams are not taking a flier When they can find players as good As Ward, Clinton-Dix and Pryor. The big tight ends will be picked Throughout the draft we know With talents such as Eric Ebron And a pass catcher named Amaro. Tomorrow night the Commish Will start the show off right I wish the players all the best And to all a good night.

TMG DraftZone Final DSA Player Rankings 2014

The 2014 NFL Draft is tomorrow. Finally. The extra two weeks this year has made it feel like an extra two months. But the time has come for Commissioner Roger Goddell to step up to the podium at Radio City Music Hall and make the announcement that the Houston Texans are on the clock. Mock Drafters have had their say, and the final DSA Player Rankings show that there is not much change in who looks to go where. But one thing it is showing is that what may be termed 'The Safe Pick' is coming back in vogue for 2014. Last year, offensive lineman went with three of the first four picks, and six of the top 11. Now this year, Taylor Lewan looks to be the safest pick garnering the most interest at the top of the draft. Lewan moved up 6 spots in the DSA Rankings, going from 14 to 8 in the Final Rankings. Eric Ebron could be considered the safest pick of the skill players at the top of the draft, and he moved up four positions to #9. The quarterbacks at the top, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles, fell 2 and 4 positions respectively as it is beginning to look like teams may take their top position prospects first, then trade back into the end of Round 1 to get the quarterback they want. But for the most part, there was very little movement in the Final DSA Player Rankings. The biggest riser was Kony Ealy, who moved up 8 positions to #20. But two rankings ago he was #21, so Ealy got back the positions he lost previously. Bradley Roby did the same thing, only in reverse. Roby fell seven spots to #28, which is where he was two rankings ago. Louis Nix fell seven spots to #30, which is far and away his lowest position in this years rankings. But the biggest overall fall was completed by Teddy Bridgewater. A horrendous pro day workout has led the one-time top quarterback prospect to fall from #2 in the first rankings, with a score of 3.00, to #3/3.40, then #11/11.40, and the fall was completed in the last two rankings at #17/17.70 and finally #22/24.40. Bridgewater is the leading candidate for the Stone Drop Award for 2014, but it could easily go to Manziel or Bortles, depending on which quarterback falls the furthest in the 2014 NFL Draft. But with the end of the 2014 Mock Draft Season now upon us, it is time to reveal the final TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings for 2014, with average score and position up or down from the previous rankings: 1) Jadeveon Clowney 1.20 0 2) Sammy Watkins 3.20 0 3) Greg Robinson 3.90 0 4) Khalil Mack 5.00 1 5) Jake Matthews 5.50 3 6) Johnny Manziel 6.80 -2 7) Mike Evans 7.40 0 8) Taylor Lewan 11.20 6 9) Eric Ebron 12.10 4 10) Blake Bortles 12.60 -4 11) Anthony Barr 12.90 0 12) Justin Gilbert 12.90 -3 13) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 13.10 -3 14) Aaron Donald 13.40 -2 15) Darqueze Dennard 16.40 0 16) Calvin Pryor 16.70 0 17) Zack Martin 17.00 1 18) Odell Beckham 18.40 2 19) C. J. Mosley 19.40 0 20) Kony Ealy 22.30 8 21) Brandin Cooks 22.80 1 22) Teddy Bridgewater 24.40 -5 23) Marqise Lee 24.80 2 24) Kyle Fuller 25.10 0 25) Ryan Shazier 25.90 1 26) Derek Carr 28.50 5 27) Tim Jernigan 28.60 0 28) Bradley Roby 28.70 -7 29) Ra'Shade Hageman 29.60 0 30) Louis Nix 29.90 -7 31) Dee Ford 30.10 2 32) Xavier Su'a-Filo 30.50 0 33) Jason Verrett 30.60 -3 34) Morgan Moses 32.00 1 35) Jimmie Ward 33.20 3 If you look at the previous DSA Player Rankings and the Final Rankings, you are going to see a lot of familiar names. 34 in fact. The only player to fall out of the DSA Rankings this time was Cyrus Kouandjio, who could easily go #28 to Carolina, a team in need of offensive line help. But draftniks see the top players being the ones that are most likely going in Round 1, and we will find out tomorrow night. I will be posting my Final Mock Draft right before the Round 1, and tonight I will have my annual Twas The Night Before The NFL Draft. It's been a long draft season, and like everyone else I am anxious to see The Commissh walk up the the podium. Let The 2014 NFL Draft Begin.

How the 2011 Draft Cured Panic In The Draft Room

For the longest time, many teams were hit with the same affliction this time of year. Panic In The Draft Room. It's a condition where the GM's and personnel people of NFL teams look at their depth chart and think 'We don't have a quarterback!' Since the free agency period has already started, and most good quarterbacks are under contract, the easiest cure is reaching for a quarterback in the NFL Draft. From 1998 to 2007, look how many first round quarterbacks didn't pan out. Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn. There were many more misses than hits at the position, and for the most part it can be attributed to overreaching at the position when you have too many other holes to fill. That's Panic In The Draft Room. The problem then lessened the next three years. 2008 brought Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, while 2009 featured Matthew Stafford at the top. That draft also had Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman in Round 1, and while they didn't work out in the long run, both had some success early before their team situation became toxic. 2010 had Sam Bradford at #1 Overall, and injuries have held him back but the jury is still out as to whether the Rams will pull the plug on Bradford. The other first round quarterback in 2010 was Tim Tebow. We all know how that turned out. But in those three seasons, the only real reaches were Sanchez and Tebow, both of who were traded up for to draft. It looked like Panic In The Draft Room had become dormant, at the very least. Then came the 2011 NFL Draft. Cam Newton was the presumptive #1 Pick for Carolina, and he turned out well for the Panthers. Other teams at the top that needed quarterbacks passed and selected the best player. Buffalo took Marcell Dareus. Cincinnati selected A.J. Green. Arizona picked Patrick Peterson. San Francisco took Aldon Smith. Then Panic reared it's ugly head. Tennessee shocked everyone by taking Jake Locker #8. Jacksonville traded up six spots to select Blaine Gabbert. Minnesota took the biggest leap and selected Christian Ponder at #12. You could feel the shockwaves hit the Draft Rooms, as Panic was back in town. Locker looked to be the possible #1 Overall Selection in 2010 if he had come out after his junior year. But he returned and had a subpar senior season at Washington, and all the flaws that were overlooked by his physical gifts were exposed for all too see. The only team that was a possiblity for Locker in Round 1 for 2011 looked to be his hometown Seattle Seahawks. But the Titans did away with those plans very early. Gabbert did not play in a pro style system, and didn't work out at the Combine. Playing on a bad Jacksonville team didn't help, but he was not ready to play in the NFL. And no one had Ponder going in Round 1. But the Vikings made the reach, and though Ponder took the team to the playoffs, it can be attributed to the play of Adrian Peterson more than Ponder. Teams that didn't reach in round 1 hit paydirt in Round 2. The Bengals paired up Green with Andy Dalton, and the 49ers got Colin Kaepernick with the next pick. All they have done is win. Dalton has started from Day 1 and led the Bengals to three straight playoff appearances. Kaepernick came off the bench in Year 2 and led the 49ers to the Super Bowl, and was a batted pass away from returning last season. The 2012 NFL Draft was loaded at the quarterback position. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went #1 and #2. Ryan Tannehill went #8 and he is starting to settle in to the position with Miami. Cleveland missed out on Brandon Weeden, but Seattle hit it big with Russell Wilson in Round 3. Weeden was a reach for his age more than anything, and Tannehill was lacking in experience. But even though Washington made a huge trade to get Griffin, it paid off with a division win that season. As for Luck, he is going to be one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL for many years to come. But 2012 saw the beginning of a dormant period for Panic In The Draft Room. I had boldly predicted that 5 quarterbacks would go in Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft, and only E.J. Manuel was selected. Teams looked at the quarterbacks and thought 'there are better players available, and we can get them later if we need to.' That is what happened. Geno Smith went for an early choice for #1 Overall to the second round. Mike Glennon fell to Round 3 and Matt Barkley fell all the way to Round 4. The 2014 NFL Draft season started out with some mock drafts having four quarterbacks going in the first eight picks, and I remember seeing one that had 4 of the first 5 picks being quarterbacks. But look now. Johnny Manziel may be the only one to go in the top 8 picks, and Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr are seen as possible trade up picks late in Round 1. The cure for Panic In The Draft Room is a heavy dose of a Deep Draft washed down with a little patience. But can you imagine what this draft would look like if Locker, Gabbert and Ponder had really panned out and made a big impact? Last year, there would have been at least three quarterbacks in Round 1, and even though they may not have played well, the prevailing thought would have been 'Let's give them some time' and the quarterbacks would be flying off the board early and often this year. But the three players taken in a five pick span in 2011 have been less than spectacular, and more than anything that has led to a cure for Panic In The Draft Room. Until next spring, that is.

TMG DraftZone 2014 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

When the 2014 NFL Draft season started, all the talk was 'Which quarterback will the Houston Texans take at #1 Overall?' Now it has become 'Which team is going to take a chance on a quarterback in the 1st Round?' But it makes me wonder just how certain a quarterback going first would be if it were not for the presence of Jadaveon Clowney at the top of everyone's draft boards. Clowney has moved to the top of my mock draft, even though I have touted Teddy Bridgewater since Day 1 to be that top pick. But it is beginning to look like Bridgewater will be the quarterback who drops the most this year. My last post was Trades To Be Made. If Bridgewater gets past Minnesota at #8, I wonder which team that passed on a quarterback at the top will make the trade to move up and get the one time potential top pick. In my mock draft, in regards to the teams looking to take a quarterback, I have Clowney going #1 to Houston, Blake Bortles #3 to Jacksonville, Sammy Watkins #4 to Cleveland, Jake Matthews #5 to Oakland, Mike Evans #7 to Tampa Bay, and Johnny Manziel #8 to Minnesota. From there it is a free fall down to Cleveland again at #26 to find a team looking to draft a quarterback. Arizona may be looking to find a future replacement for Carson Palmer, and the same for the Cincinnati Bengals with Andy Dalton, but if they take a quarterback I see it happening in Round 2, depending on the availability of A.J. McCarron, Zack Mettenberger, Derek Carr and Aaron Murray. So let's say that Bridgewater falls to the 20's on draft night. You are the Houston Texans. You just picked up Jadaveon Clowney. Now the quarterback you have taken a long look at is there for the taking, but you have to move up to the #21 to #25 positions to get him. What do you offer? You have the first pick in each round the rest of the way. #33 Overall would yield a very good player. Perhaps throw in your 4th and 5th Rounders as well. That might be pretty tempting. Or your 2nd Rounder this year and your #1 next year. A price to pay, but if the Texans make the playoffs that pick will be no sooner than #21 in 2015, and you keep the rest of your picks this year in a very deep class. Now you need a trading partner. Take a look at Kansas City. Andy Reid has a history of draft trades. And for now I have the Chiefs taking Xavier Su'a-Filo to shore up their offensive line. I have previously had KC taking a receiver at #23. In either case, they might be able to get a top player at either position at #33, and you can pick up an additional #1 next year. I can see the deal happening, but if Cleveland finds out and they want Bridgewater, there is going to be a very lucky team in that 21-25 range that will reap the reward of a draft day bidding war. Of course it could be that Bridgewater goes in the Top 8, but there are starting to be too many questions about him to make me think that will happen. But until the trades start to roll in, I'm going to put up my mock draft for where teams are drafting now, and who I think they will select. So here is the TMG DraftZone 2014 NFL Mock Draft 2.0: 1) Houston Jadaveon Clowney 2) St. Louis Greg Robinson 3) Jacksonville Blake Bortles 4) Cleveland Sammy Watkins 5) Oakland Jake Matthews 6) Atlanta Khalil Mack 7) Tampa Bay Mike Evans 8) Minnesota Johnny Manziel 9) Buffalo Eric Ebron 10) Detroit Justin Gilbert 11) Tennessee Anthony Barr 12) NY Giants Zach Martin 13) St. Louis Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 14) Chicago Tim Jernigan 15) Pittsburgh Calvin Pryor 16) Dallas Aaron Donald 17) Baltimore C.J. Mosley 18) NY Jets Marqise Lee 19) Miami Taylor Lewan 20) Arizona Cyrus Kouandjio 21) Green Bay Darqueze Dennard 22) Philadelphia Brandin Cooks 23) Kansas City Xavier Su'a-Filo 24) Cincinnati Ryan Shazier 25) San Diego Louis Nix 26) Cleveland Teddy Bridgewater 27) New Orleans Dee Ford 28) Carolina Allen Robinson 29) New England Kyle Fuller 30) San Francisco Kelvin Benjamin 31) Denver Bradley Roby 32) Seattle David Yankey If the schedule was not changed, the first day of the NFL Draft would be in 12 days. But we get an extra two weeks to analyze who will be going where, and the moves teams are making to get the players they want. The Houston Texans are on the clock. I can't wait for May 8th to see Commissioner Goddell to walk to the podium. It's going to be a great draft for the NFL in 2014.

Trades to be Made: 2014 Edition

Every year, there are plenty of draft trades that are made. It doesn't matter if it is the first round or the last, deals can make or break a team on Draft Weekend, and I am starting to get the feeling that in 2014 the wheeling and dealing, or the possibility of the big trade, is going to be in the forefront of the upcoming draft weekend. Start at the top this year. The Houston Texans need a quarterback. I still say that Teddy Bridgewater is going to be the best of the bunch in this years crop, but it looks like their top targets are Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. But the best player in the draft is Jadaveon Clowney, the freakishly talented defensive end. But Houston already has J.J. Watt, and their question is 'Do we tandem the pass rush with Watt and Clowney, or do we take the quarterback who will get us back to the playoffs?' If the Texans are dead set on a quarterback, they need to look for a trading partner who will break the bank for Clowney. St. Louis already has Chris Long and Robert Quinn, so they are set at defensive end. Then there is Jacksonville. I have already written about how Gus Bradley is looking to build the Jaguars much the same way he former team, the Seattle Seahawks, were built. Defense, power running game, and an intelligent quarterback who doesn't make mistakes that costs you game. If Clowney is there at #3, Jacksonville will take him. But how much do they want him? I wonder if they might consider a trade up to #1, and hold onto their second round pick this year to get a quarterback they want. A.J. McCarron, Derek Carr and Zach Mettenberger come to mind who Jacksonville could target with that pick. But as good as Clowney looks to be, the Jaguars need to fill a lot of holes, so I don't see them as a top candidate to trade. Cleveland has the 4th Overall Selection, but they also have #26, which they received for Trent Richardson last season. But Cleveland needs a quarterback and a playmaking receiver. I have them taking Sammy Watkins at #4 and Derek Carr at #26. But if Teddy Bridgewater falls past #8, and the Browns did not take a quarterback at #4, they could be in trade mode themselves to move up and get a quarterback they covet. Cleveland made a big deal three years ago with Atlanta do that the Falcons could draft Julio Jones, but this year I don't see the Browns moving up to get Clowney. The Oakland Raiders could use a player like Clowney. They could also use a player like Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Khalil Mack and Sammy Watkins. Translation: The Raiders need a lot of help, and trading away a boatload of draft picks for Clowney doesn't make a lot of sense. But these are the Raiders. So who really knows what they are going to do. As I mentioned earlier, Atlanta made a blockbuster deal three years ago to move up from #27 to #6 and take Julio Jones. The Falcons are in the sixth position this year, after a season of one injury after another cost them any chance of success. Would they pull the trigger on another blockbuster deal and move up to #1 and get Clowney? I don't see it happening. They need help on the offensive line, and with Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews they have 1 and 1A to choose from. If they have their eye on defense, Khalil Mack might still be there. Atlanta sacrificed number ones to get Jones back in 2011, and it cost them with lack of depth last year. I don't see it happening this year with the Falcons. If the Houston Texans can't move out of #1, and they take a quarterback, the trade focus will be on the St. Louis Rams, who also have the #13 pick this year. They made their own big trade two years ago and hoarded picks from the Washington Redskins in the Robert Griffin III deal. Jeff Fisher has taken those picks and started to rebuild the Rams into a winner. But they need help on the offensive line, and they can get either Robinson, Matthews or Taylor Lewan later in the Top 10 if they move down. Now all the Rams have to do is find a trading partner. With one of the deepest draft classes in memory, good luck with that. It is one month until the 2014 NFL Draft, and it will be interesting to see if The Big Trade is made before the draft, or if we have to wait until the Houston Texans are officially on the clock before it happens.

TMG Draft Zone 2014 Mock Draft 1.0

I've been so busy with other things in life that posting my first Mock Draft of 2014 has kept been getting put off. And now after The Scouting Combine and free agency, about all I can say is that you could take Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Jadaveon Clowney, Jake Matthews, Greg Robinson, Sammy Watkins and Khalil Mack, put their names in a hat, and draw out the first 8 blindly and not go wrong. I might just have to try it out and see what happens. In spite of his less than stellar showing at his pro day, I'm sticking with Bridgewater at the 1st Overall position. Bortles looked very good and Gus Bradley is going to have some sleepless nights wondering about the up and coming quarterback or the best player in the draft in Clowney. The Rams made a haul off of trading the pick that Washington made for Robert Griffin III, and I wonder if they feel like they can make a similar deal this time. They re-signed Roger Saffold after his deal with the Raiders fell through, and adding a bookend tackle would make life that much easier for Sam Bradford. Until the trade is made, I have the Rams taking the more athletic Robinson over the polished Matthews (for now). As for Matthews, I have him going 8th to Minnesota. The Vikings could use a franchise quarterback, but they re-signed Matt Cassell and have Christian Ponder as well. Say what you want about both quarterbacks, but they have both recently led teams to the playoffs. And how do you make an average signal caller better? Give him a great running back. The Vikings have the best in the game in Adrian Peterson. Give him targets to throw to. Minnesota has Corderrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph. Put a wall of an offensive line in front of him. Put Jake Matthews opposite Matt Kalil, and you have a tackle combination that most teams would love to have. Think this could work in Minnesota? Look what it did for Alex Smith in San Francisco. So here is the first mock draft from the TMG Draft Zone for 2014, with a 110% certainty to change in the next 2 months: 1) Houston Teddy Bridgewater 2) St. Louis Greg Robinson 3) Jacksonville Jadaveon Clowney 4) Cleveland Sammy Watkins 5) Oakland Blake Bortles 6) Atlanta Khalil Mack 7) Tampa Bay Justin Gilbert 8) Minnesota Jake Matthews 9) Buffalo Eric Ebron 10) Detroit Darqueze Dennard 11) Tennessee Anthony Barr 12) NY Giants Taylor Lewan 13) St. Louis Calvin Pryor 14) Chicago Louis Nix 15) Pittsburgh Ha'Sean Clinton Dix 16) Dallas C.J. Mosley 17) Baltimore Mike Evans 18) NY Jets Marqise Lee 19) Miami Zack Martin 20) Arizona Cyrus Kouandjio 21) Green Bay Jace Amaro 22) Philadelphia Jason Verrett 23) Kansas City Odell Beckham 24) Cincinnati Kyle Fuller 25) San Diego Tim Jernigan 26) Cleveland Johnny Manziel 27) New Orleans Ryan Shazier 28) Carolina Kelvin Benjamin 29) New England Aaron Donald 30) San Francisco Brandin Cooks 31) Denver Ra'Shade Hageman 32) Seattle Kony Ealy As you can see, I do not have Johnny Manziel going in the top 8 of the draft. I just feel that teams are going to get a little jittery in regards to Manziel, either the potential for injury for a running quarterback or that the risk won't match the reward. I do have Justin Gilbert going #7 to Tampa Bay as the replacement for Darrelle Revis. Buffalo needs some playmakers on offense, and Eric Ebron is too tempting to pass on at #9. Mike Evans would be a good choice for the Bills, but a physical monster like Ebron would be a great target for E.J. Manuel down the middle and in the red zone. However the first round of the draft falls out, there is talent aplenty from top to bottom. If you can find full 7 round mocks out there, or even just two rounders, look at the players in the 60's and 70's and you can probably make an argument that they could go in Round 1. I do know this: some GM is REALLY going to have to screw up his early picks to get a C grade or worse this year. But it always happens. I just wonder who it will be in 2014.

2014 DSA Player Rankings 2.0

The TMG Draft Zone has returned after a time on sick leave. I wasn't just under the weather. I was buried about 3 feet down before digging my way out. I was hoping to post the second DSA Player Rankings of 2014 right after the NFL Scouting Combine and before the start of free agency. But unable to do so, my mock draft research spans both events, so in a way it is an average of the Draft Slot Average. Jadaveon Clowney is once again a solid pick at #1 Overall, and the tide of the first quarterback to go has shifted from Teddy Bridgewater to Blake Bortles. But barely. The surprise among the quarterbacks is that Johnny Manziel is not feeling the love as he once did. Johnny Football dropped 4 spots down to #8, and in a way he has flipped positions with Greg Robinson. The athletic tackle, who wowed at the Combine, looks to be the first lineman to go off the boards instead of Jake Matthews. Robinson made a strong leap up 3 spots to #4, and is a mere three tenths of a point away from #2. Justin Gilbert also made a strong move, leaping 7 positions into the top 10 at #10. The top of the pack has started to separate from the rest, as there is already a nearly 3 point margin between #8 and #9. But the research I performed showed that the first round is getting to be a solid block of players. 20 players were listed in each mock draft I researched, 4 others were left out of one, and 4 others were left out of two of the mocks. Overall, there were 34 players who averaged 30 or better. Teams will be getting first round talent well into the third round of the draft this year. It's going to take a monumental screw-up for a team to get a bad grade on Draft Day this year. The biggest gainer was by far Aaron Donald, who jumped an incredible 17 positions. Odell Beckham was also a double digit gainer, moving up 10 spots. Justin Gilbert also made a strong move, leaping 7 positions into the top 10 at #10. Dropping hard were C.J. Mosley and Cyrus Kouandjio, who both fell 11 spots. I don't see Mosley staying down too long, but the concerns over the knee troubles of Kouandjio could cause him to be the winner of the Stone Drop Award of 2014, the player who started out the highest and who falls the farthest. Another candidate could be Kelvin Benjamin, the highest slotted player in the first DSA's who fell out completely the next time. Benjamin will not fall too far out of Round 2. He is too freakishly talented for someone to let him go too long, even if he has trouble catching the ball. So here is the 2nd 2014 DSA Player Rankings, with the average score and the positions gained or lost from the last DSA Rankings, and I promise to do better to keep my draft postings coming here to the TMG Draft Zone: 1) Jadaveon Clowney 2.10 0 2) Blake Bortles 3.10 1 3) Teddy Bridgewater 3.40 (1) 4) Greg Robinson 3.50 3 5) Sammy Watkins 5.00 0 6) Khalil Mack 6.20 2 7) Jake Matthews 7.90 (1) 8) Johnny Manziel 9.30 (4) 9) Anthony Barr 12.00 0 10) Justin Gilbert 13.00 7 11) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 13.40 3 12) Taylor Lewan 14.10 (1) 13) Mike Evans 14.40 0 14) Aaron Donald 15.70 17 15) Darqueze Dennard 15.70 (3) 16) Eric Ebron 16.50 (1) 17) Marquise Lee 19.10 (1) 18) Zack Martin 19.40 5 19) Calvin Pryor 19.70 3 20) Louis Nix 20.80 1 21) C.J. Mosley 21.60 (11) 22) Odell Beckham 22.20 10 23) Jason Varrett 24.60 5 24) Kony Ealy 25.10 0 25) Derek Carr 25.40 (7) 26) Tim Jernigan 25.90 0 27) Ra'Shade Hageman 27.00 (7) 28) Brandin Cooks 27.80 5 29) Kyle Fuller 27.80 5 30) Cyrus Kouandijo 28.90 (11) 31) Ryan Shazier 29.50 4 32) Bradley Roby 29.60 4 33) Xavier Su'a-Filo 29.70 4 34) Dee Ford 30.60 4

Measuring the Combine

The 2014 NFL Scouting Combine is underway in Indianapolis. The prospects have been weighed and measures, and they are now going through their on-field workouts. And for the first time, the biggest discussion concerning the quarterbacks has been the hand measurements. I have already posted about why I feel the Houston Texans should take Teddy Bridgewater with the 1st Overall Pick of the draft. Now there are concerns about the size of his hands and whether he can hold onto the ball and make accurate passes in bad weather. I get the feeling that analysts are trying to raise the bar on nit-picking in leading up to the draft. Don't get me wrong. I understand the concerns. If a quarterback has a bigger hand, they can hold on to the ball better, especially in colder weather. But don't they make gloves to help a quarterback do just that? Jim McMahon wore gloves back in 1985 for the Chicago Bears, and he said it helped him throw a better pass. So much that he even wore them in the Super Bowl indoors at the Superdome. So to me that is less of a concern. But if you want to see how well Bridgewater can handle bad weather, go back and take a look at his game film from his sophomore season at Louisville. Having watched the Cardinals play that season on their way to the Sugar Bowl, Bridgewater played in rain and even more rain in over half of the games that season. Bridgewater played exceptionally all season, and I have no doubts that he can handle the weather in the NFL. What does worry me about Bridgewater is that he will not be participating in on-field drills at The Combine. I'm watching the wide receivers work out now, and they are catching passes from Blake Bortles and A.J. McCarron. I have always been a foremost advocate of quarterbacks throwing in the receiver drills, as it shows just how quickly a passer can adapt to changing instructions and how well they can adjust to different receivers. But Johnny Manziel and Derek Carr are not throwing in these drills either, for what it's worth. When I see a a quarterback not throw at The Combine, I think back to Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. Newton did throw, and didn't look very good. Gabbert didn't throw at all, on the advice of his agent, just like Bridgewater, Manziel and Carr this year. But the teams saw the ability and desire of Newton to work on his game, and he threw much better at his Pro Day. It almost looked like Gabbert was trying to hide his flaws, and those have been exposed in his time with the Jaguars. If I were giving advice to a quarterback, I'd tell him to go out and throw as much as possible at The Combine, show how much and how readily you are wanting to learn, and to have fun. Go out and show that the size of your hands have no bearing on how well you can throw the ball. But most of all have fun and enjoy yourself. It's a job interview. Show your potential employers how much you enjoy playing football, and how much your chosen path means to you. It's tough to do that standing on the sidelines.

2014 DSA Player Rankings 1.0

It is time to reveal the first DSA Player Rankings from the TMG Draft Zone for 2014. Apologies for the delay in bringing the rankings to you as work has delayed my research in the past week. But I have been putting together the mock drafts, and the first DSA's of the year have proved that this year is going to be all about star power at the top of the draft. The Houston Texans have yet to tip their hand as to who they may take with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, and I do not suspect they will any time soon. So mock drafts everywhere have Houston taking any number of players at the top. The Texans need a quarterback, and you can find mocks with Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, or Johnny Manziel listed first. Or they could go for the best player in the draft, and you will also for Jadaveon Clowney rated at the top. But you will also find the three quarterbacks as far down as #8 to Minnesota, and Clowney no more then 5th to Oakland. Which is why Clowney leads the way in the first DSA Player Rankings of 2014. Sammy Watkins edged out Jake Matthews for the fifth slot, but they took very different paths to get there. Watkins can be found in just about any mock draft in the neighborhood of #5 to #7 for Tampa Bay. Matthews has as many postings at #2 to St. Louis as he does at #11 to Tennessee. The top 9 slots are rounded out by Greg Robinson, Khalil Mack, and Anthony Barr. It would not be much of a stretch to say, even this early in the process, that these nine players will be the first names called going down to Buffalo and their pick at #9. The one player would could easily find his way there is Derek Carr. Carr is #18, but 40% of the mock drafts I researched did not list him in the first round, and the others all had him at #8 to Minnesota. Carr certainly has to talent to compete with the top three QB's, and his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and pro day at Fresno State will go a long way to determining where he goes in the draft. I have already written about the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Clowney at #3, then getting their quarterback in Round 2. If Carr does get past the Vikings in Round 1, I wonder how frantic the phone lines will be in the Jags draft office to make a trade. I can picture the Cleveland Browns being a likely trading partner with the 26th Pick they acquired from Indianapolis. If the Browns take a QB at #4, they may want to add more draft picks to their already sizable stockpile this year. Jacksonville would be moving up nine spots, and sending their second rounder plus a couple of late round picks, or a higher pick next year, could very well net the Jaguars a top flight signal caller to build around this coming season. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 1.0, exclusive to the TMG Draft Zone, for the 2014 NFL Draft: 1) Jadaveon Clowney 2.60 2) Teddy Bridgewater 3.00 3) Blake Bortles 3.70 4) Johnny Manziel 3.70 5) Sammy Watkins 5.50 6) Jake Matthews 5.80 7) Greg Robinson 6.70 8) Khalil Mack 7.70 9) Anthony Barr 8.80 10) C.J. Mosley 13.00 11) Taylor Lewan 14.40 12) Darqueze Dennard 15.00 13) Mike Evans 15.70 14) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 16.10 15) Eric Ebron 16.60 16) Marquise Lee 17.40 17) Justin Gilbert 18.90 18) Derek Carr 19.10 19) Cyrus Kouandijo 20.00 20) Ra'Shade Hageman 22.30 21) Louis Nix 22.80 22) Calvin Pryor 23.60 23) Zack Martin 24.60 24) Kony Ealy 24.80 25) Kelvin Benjamin 24.90 26) Tim Jernigan 26.60 27) Jace Amaro 28.90 28) Jason Varrett 29.40 29) Stephon Tuitt 30.10 30) Allen Robinson 30.60 31) Aaron Donald 30.60 32) Odell Beckham 31.50 Three players I want to keep an eye on up to and just past the NFL Scouting Combine, and where they start to find themselves in mock drafts everywhere, and Eric Ebron, Kelvin Benjamin, and Calvin Pryor. Ebron and Benjamin are both physical marvels, but Ebron has the polish and Benjamin is a work in progress. But teams love to have big targets such as these 2, and I can see both moving up draft boards everywhere. As for Pryor, teams are really starting to go with the physical safeties to play the middle of the field, and though Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix has long been seen as the top player at that position, there are many who see Pryor as one with just as much talent as Clinton-Dix, and the value placed at the position recently could move him up to the middle of the first round, possible to St. Louis at #13. The NFL Scouting Combine is coming up in less than 3 weeks, and it will be interesting to see who is getting some buzz talk going before, and then who will be the biggest winner coming out of Indianapolis later this month.

Mock Draft Mode

The TMG Draft Zone had to take a break as I have been in the process of moving, and finding the time to write has been a bit on the difficult side lately. But now that I have just about everything in place once again, and with a week before the Super Bowl, it is just about time to get back into Mock Draft Mode here in the Draft Zone. As you all know, I do not put out my first mock draft until after the Super Bowl. I believe in getting the draft order set (unless there is a coin flip to determine a spot in the order) before trying to figure out who will be going where come draft time. But publishing mock drafts is now a year round business, and they have been coming fast and furious lately. The latest one I read has caused me to want to reveal who is going to be at the top of my first mock draft, and he will be at the top of all the mocks I put forth unless the Houston Texans go out and pick up a quarterback somewhere. I have seen Johnny Manziel listed at #1, along with Jadaveon Clowney, and just today I looked at a mock draft that had Blake Bortles going first overall. Houston needs a quarterback, and I will put Teddy Bridgewater in the top spot until the Texans make a deal to get a new signal caller in this off season, if they do at all. I have lived in the Louisville area the last 6 years, but that is not the reason I am putting Bridgewater at the top. He is by far the most pro ready quarterback with the fewest question marks going in to the draft, and he will be the best of the group down the road. I listened to a number of Louisville games on the radio, and I cannot tell you the number of times I heard the announcers complain that the Cardinals were running a boring offense. It was the type of offense where the quarterback took snaps from under center, handed the ball off to the running backs, ran play action passes, passed the ball from the pocket, where he used his mobility to makes plays outside the pocket in space to find an open receiver, and could run for first downs when no one was open. Does this sound familiar? It should. It is called a PRO OFFENSE. Bridgewater is not going to need to be schooled in how the pros run their offenses when he gets to the NFL. He has been running that system already. His accuracy from the pocket and on the move is tremendous. Can he make plays in the open field? Take a look at the last two plays against Cincinnati this year. He scrambled out and got a first down running backwards, then threw a touchdown pass from more than 30 yards as he was being pulled down to the ground to win the game. Some will say he played against inferior competition in conference play? Take a look at what he did against Florida in the Sugar Bowl and Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Others will point out that he is slight of frame. I'm sure that he is already on a training regiment that will get him more muscle, and no one should question his toughness after playing with a broken wrist in 2012 to clinch the Big East title and a BCS Bowl bid. But what I am looking to see out of Bridgewater at the NFL Scouting Combine is what he scores on the Wonderlic test. People I have talked to in Louisville who know Bridgewater say that he is one of the smartest, most intelligent people they have met. He graduated in 2 1/2 years while playing football, and his athletic ability on the field might even be surpassed by his intelligence level off the gridiron. There have been a number of quarterbacks taken high in the draft who failed miserably in the NFL, and too many of them did not have the prowess above the neck to match what they had below it. I'll be putting out my first mock draft next week, and you will see Teddy Bridgewater at the top. And unless the Houston Texans make a bold move to trade out of the top spot of go out and get another quarterback, you will be seeing Teddy at the top until the 2014 NFL Draft commences in May.

The Year of The Pretty Boys

It's getting to be that time of year. It's NFL Draft Season, and the TMG Draft Zone is back. If the 2013 NFL Draft was known for not having a sure fire star at the top, the 2014 Draft will be known for possibly having too many big names to choose from. Who will be going where, and who will be drafting them, will be discussed at length for the next 4 months. The 2013 NFL Draft will be known as The Year of The Big Uglies. The top seven selections were offensive or defensive lineman. The first skill player chosen was Tavon Austin by the St. Louis Rams, who engineered a trade with Buffalo to move up eight slots and take the dynamic playmaker. The New York Jets followed with cornerback Dee Milliner, then 4 of the next 5 players selected were lineman. Only one quarterback was selected in the first round, with Buffalo taking E.J. Manuel in the 16th slot with the pick they acquired from the Rams in the Austin trade. No running backs went in Round 1, though Giovanni Bernard and Eddie Lacy had big impacts for Cincinnati and Green Bay after going in Round 2. The 2014 NFL Draft will see no such dispersal of position players. It will be The Year of The Pretty Boys. The Quarterback Draft. I caught some grief for making a bold prediction last year that 5 quarterbacks would go in Round 1 of the draft, as the yearly Panic In The Draft Room would set in. Although only one was taken, 6 rookie quarterbacks wound up starting a game in 2013, so I do feel some vindication with my prediction. There was panic, it just waited to hit in season. This year the Panic In The Draft Room will hit long before draft night. It will hit a team hard and they are going to make a bold move up the boards to get the player they want. But this year, the teams that are truly in need of a quarterback are already at the top of the draft. It is going to come down to who REALLY WANTS their man. The quarterbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft are going to command much of the attention this year, and rightfully so. The top three at this time are Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Johnny Manziel. Bortles has the NFL prototype size and arm strentgh, Manziel can make plays all over the field, and Bridgewater combines the best of what NFL teams are looking for: accuracy, intelligence, leadership. It will not be a bold prediction to say that these three players will go in the top 5, and it would not be one either to add Derek Carr into the top 5 as well. The younger brother of former 1st Overall Pick David Carr matches up well with Bortles physically and many see him as having the best upside of all the top prospects. As good as these four players are looking right now, take a look at what you might call Tier 2 of the quarterbacks. A.J. McCarron, who won two national titles at Alabama. Tajh Boyd, who led Clemson to a Top 10 season and an Orange Bowl win. Zach Mettenberger and Aaron Murray are coming off of knee injuries, but both were considered Heisman candidates at the start of the season. both should be ready to go by the start of training camps. I have long said that teams picking at the top of the draft have just as important of a selection at the start of Round 2. There are first round talents there, and making the right choice can prove to be just as much of a windfall as the player taken in Round 1. Jacksonville did well in selecting Jonathon Cyprien, and Philadelphia got a steal at tight end with Zack Ertz. I wonder how many teams are going to look at the quarterbacks in the 2014 Draft, see a player who fits their needs and they can get in Round 2, and then take the player who is going to have the biggest impact right away in Round 1. Quarterbacks are going to rule the day in May, but if need a pass rusher or offensive line help as well as a quarterback, I wonder how many teams are going to make the bold move and take Jadaveon Clowney or Jake Matthews and then roll the dice on a quarterback later on in the draft. But in the NFL, you must have the right man at the quarterback position. So the Pretty Boys are going to fly off the draft board like never before. Can you imagine a talent like Clowney falling to Atlanta at #6, and then adding him to a team that fell hard last year due mostly to injuries on both sides of the ball but is just one year removed for the NFC Championship game? The Falcons can sit and wait, and like everyone else they are going to have four months to think it over.