Showing posts with label Jake Locker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jake Locker. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
How the 2011 Draft Cured Panic In The Draft Room
For the longest time, many teams were hit with the same affliction this time of year. Panic In The Draft Room. It's a condition where the GM's and personnel people of NFL teams look at their depth chart and think 'We don't have a quarterback!' Since the free agency period has already started, and most good quarterbacks are under contract, the easiest cure is reaching for a quarterback in the NFL Draft. From 1998 to 2007, look how many first round quarterbacks didn't pan out. Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn. There were many more misses than hits at the position, and for the most part it can be attributed to overreaching at the position when you have too many other holes to fill. That's Panic In The Draft Room.
The problem then lessened the next three years. 2008 brought Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, while 2009 featured Matthew Stafford at the top. That draft also had Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman in Round 1, and while they didn't work out in the long run, both had some success early before their team situation became toxic. 2010 had Sam Bradford at #1 Overall, and injuries have held him back but the jury is still out as to whether the Rams will pull the plug on Bradford. The other first round quarterback in 2010 was Tim Tebow. We all know how that turned out.
But in those three seasons, the only real reaches were Sanchez and Tebow, both of who were traded up for to draft. It looked like Panic In The Draft Room had become dormant, at the very least. Then came the 2011 NFL Draft. Cam Newton was the presumptive #1 Pick for Carolina, and he turned out well for the Panthers. Other teams at the top that needed quarterbacks passed and selected the best player. Buffalo took Marcell Dareus. Cincinnati selected A.J. Green. Arizona picked Patrick Peterson. San Francisco took Aldon Smith. Then Panic reared it's ugly head.
Tennessee shocked everyone by taking Jake Locker #8. Jacksonville traded up six spots to select Blaine Gabbert. Minnesota took the biggest leap and selected Christian Ponder at #12. You could feel the shockwaves hit the Draft Rooms, as Panic was back in town.
Locker looked to be the possible #1 Overall Selection in 2010 if he had come out after his junior year. But he returned and had a subpar senior season at Washington, and all the flaws that were overlooked by his physical gifts were exposed for all too see. The only team that was a possiblity for Locker in Round 1 for 2011 looked to be his hometown Seattle Seahawks. But the Titans did away with those plans very early. Gabbert did not play in a pro style system, and didn't work out at the Combine. Playing on a bad Jacksonville team didn't help, but he was not ready to play in the NFL. And no one had Ponder going in Round 1. But the Vikings made the reach, and though Ponder took the team to the playoffs, it can be attributed to the play of Adrian Peterson more than Ponder.
Teams that didn't reach in round 1 hit paydirt in Round 2. The Bengals paired up Green with Andy Dalton, and the 49ers got Colin Kaepernick with the next pick. All they have done is win. Dalton has started from Day 1 and led the Bengals to three straight playoff appearances. Kaepernick came off the bench in Year 2 and led the 49ers to the Super Bowl, and was a batted pass away from returning last season.
The 2012 NFL Draft was loaded at the quarterback position. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went #1 and #2. Ryan Tannehill went #8 and he is starting to settle in to the position with Miami. Cleveland missed out on Brandon Weeden, but Seattle hit it big with Russell Wilson in Round 3. Weeden was a reach for his age more than anything, and Tannehill was lacking in experience. But even though Washington made a huge trade to get Griffin, it paid off with a division win that season. As for Luck, he is going to be one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL for many years to come.
But 2012 saw the beginning of a dormant period for Panic In The Draft Room. I had boldly predicted that 5 quarterbacks would go in Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft, and only E.J. Manuel was selected. Teams looked at the quarterbacks and thought 'there are better players available, and we can get them later if we need to.' That is what happened. Geno Smith went for an early choice for #1 Overall to the second round. Mike Glennon fell to Round 3 and Matt Barkley fell all the way to Round 4.
The 2014 NFL Draft season started out with some mock drafts having four quarterbacks going in the first eight picks, and I remember seeing one that had 4 of the first 5 picks being quarterbacks. But look now. Johnny Manziel may be the only one to go in the top 8 picks, and Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr are seen as possible trade up picks late in Round 1. The cure for Panic In The Draft Room is a heavy dose of a Deep Draft washed down with a little patience.
But can you imagine what this draft would look like if Locker, Gabbert and Ponder had really panned out and made a big impact? Last year, there would have been at least three quarterbacks in Round 1, and even though they may not have played well, the prevailing thought would have been 'Let's give them some time' and the quarterbacks would be flying off the board early and often this year. But the three players taken in a five pick span in 2011 have been less than spectacular, and more than anything that has led to a cure for Panic In The Draft Room.
Until next spring, that is.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Defining the Draft Class Part 1
Every NFL Draft class seems to be defined by the performance of the quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft. The 2011 Draft should not be any different. There were seven quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds. Each of them will get a chance to shine, either right away or down the road. How they play will determine whether this years class was stellar or lackluster.
There were four quarterbacks taken in the first twelve picks. It could be said that each one was picked out of a combination of need, panic and desperation. Cam Newton went #1 Overall to Carolina. The Panthers have two quarterbacks on their roster that they picked just last year in Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike. Matt Moore started the season as the starter, but ineffective play and injuries put him on the sideline. Clausen moved into the starting role and fared little better. Can Newton turn the tide in Carolina? If he has to play behind the same line as Moore and Clausen it will be difficult. But it could be said that Newton was taken first as the Panthers need a new face for the franchise. He will sell tickets and jerseys. He will make a 2-14 team the talk of the league. But he will need a better supporting cast and a transitional period to adapt to the NFL. One thing that not many have been talking about in regards to Newton. He is a winner. He won the JUCO National Title and NCAA Title the last two seasons. How will he handle losing? Will it be his fault or someone else's? If he starts to throw his teammates under the bus he will find a lonely locker room in Carolina.
Blaine Gabbert was seen by many as the best of the quarterback class going into the draft. But one had to wonder where he would land when Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Francisco all passed on the Missouri signal caller. I'm not sure what was more surprising: who passed on Gabbert, or who selected him. Jacksonville traded up to the #10 spot to take Gabbert. But with David Garrard under contract for a few more years, Gabbert will get a chance to sit and learn. Unless the Jaguars decide that they have seen enough average play out of Garrard and move Gabbert into the lineup. What I can envision is a similar scenario that Phillip Rivers faced in San Diego. When he was selected in 2004, Drew Brees was not putting up big numbers. But with the hot rookie commodity on the bench, Brees took his game and the Chargers to new heights. Rivers sat for two seasons. It did help his case that Brees suffered what was seen as a major shoulder injury and was a free agent. Rivers got the call in San Diego. Brees moved on to New Orleans. Now they are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If Garrard picks his game up it may be a while before Gabbert sees the light of day. But after two seasons Jacksonville may have to decide: the proven veteran, or the untested youngster. When Gabbert gets his chance will ultimately be decided by Garrard.
The other two quarterbacks selected in Round One were Jake Locker, taken #8 by Tennessee, and Christian Ponder, selected #12 by Minnesota. There are reaches in the first round of any draft, but not many brought about gasps of disbelief as these two. Locker has the athletic ability. Ponder is well suited to adjust to the pro game. But Locker has issues with accuracy, and Ponder has injury concerns. If they had been selected in either the late first or early second round there wouldn't be much talk about the picks. But both are going to teams with serious quarterback issues. Tennessee is parting ways with Vince Young. Minnesota has seen the last of Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Locker and Ponder will be starting from Day One. Their teams drafted them too high not too and, for the most part, they don't have a better option. But both quarterbacks have one thing in common. They are moving into a backfield that has a stellar running back. Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Without having to carry the full burden of the offense, it will make it easier to succeed. But not much. Locker and Ponder are going to find out how brightly the spotlight shines on the quarterback position. it's like no other position in all of sports. It defines the sport and the teams. And it will define the 2011 NFL Draft Class.
There were four quarterbacks taken in the first twelve picks. It could be said that each one was picked out of a combination of need, panic and desperation. Cam Newton went #1 Overall to Carolina. The Panthers have two quarterbacks on their roster that they picked just last year in Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike. Matt Moore started the season as the starter, but ineffective play and injuries put him on the sideline. Clausen moved into the starting role and fared little better. Can Newton turn the tide in Carolina? If he has to play behind the same line as Moore and Clausen it will be difficult. But it could be said that Newton was taken first as the Panthers need a new face for the franchise. He will sell tickets and jerseys. He will make a 2-14 team the talk of the league. But he will need a better supporting cast and a transitional period to adapt to the NFL. One thing that not many have been talking about in regards to Newton. He is a winner. He won the JUCO National Title and NCAA Title the last two seasons. How will he handle losing? Will it be his fault or someone else's? If he starts to throw his teammates under the bus he will find a lonely locker room in Carolina.
Blaine Gabbert was seen by many as the best of the quarterback class going into the draft. But one had to wonder where he would land when Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Francisco all passed on the Missouri signal caller. I'm not sure what was more surprising: who passed on Gabbert, or who selected him. Jacksonville traded up to the #10 spot to take Gabbert. But with David Garrard under contract for a few more years, Gabbert will get a chance to sit and learn. Unless the Jaguars decide that they have seen enough average play out of Garrard and move Gabbert into the lineup. What I can envision is a similar scenario that Phillip Rivers faced in San Diego. When he was selected in 2004, Drew Brees was not putting up big numbers. But with the hot rookie commodity on the bench, Brees took his game and the Chargers to new heights. Rivers sat for two seasons. It did help his case that Brees suffered what was seen as a major shoulder injury and was a free agent. Rivers got the call in San Diego. Brees moved on to New Orleans. Now they are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If Garrard picks his game up it may be a while before Gabbert sees the light of day. But after two seasons Jacksonville may have to decide: the proven veteran, or the untested youngster. When Gabbert gets his chance will ultimately be decided by Garrard.
The other two quarterbacks selected in Round One were Jake Locker, taken #8 by Tennessee, and Christian Ponder, selected #12 by Minnesota. There are reaches in the first round of any draft, but not many brought about gasps of disbelief as these two. Locker has the athletic ability. Ponder is well suited to adjust to the pro game. But Locker has issues with accuracy, and Ponder has injury concerns. If they had been selected in either the late first or early second round there wouldn't be much talk about the picks. But both are going to teams with serious quarterback issues. Tennessee is parting ways with Vince Young. Minnesota has seen the last of Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Locker and Ponder will be starting from Day One. Their teams drafted them too high not too and, for the most part, they don't have a better option. But both quarterbacks have one thing in common. They are moving into a backfield that has a stellar running back. Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Without having to carry the full burden of the offense, it will make it easier to succeed. But not much. Locker and Ponder are going to find out how brightly the spotlight shines on the quarterback position. it's like no other position in all of sports. It defines the sport and the teams. And it will define the 2011 NFL Draft Class.
Friday, May 6, 2011
AFC South Draft Grades: Tennessee Titans
The Vince Young era has come to an end in Tennessee, and the Titans made the first truly surprising move of the draft with the selection of Jake Locker at #8 overall. There is no doubting Locker's athletic ability, but his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. But he was the quarterback the Titans targeted, and they rolled the dice on the signal caller out of Washington.
Round Two brought a steal in Akeem Ayers, the linebacker from UCLA. Ayers was looked at being a mid to late first round pick by most draftniks, and to get him where they did was a boon for the Titans. Ayers should start right away at the outside linebacker position for Tennessee.
The third round brought Jurrell Casey, a defensive tackle from USC. Casey is a one gap penetrator who can work his way into the offensive backfield. He will need to bulk up to stop the run, but Tennessee has had a long line of quality defensive tackles and they should be able to develop his talent.
A late round sleeper looks to be Colin McCarthy, a middle linebacker from Miami. McCarthy is a physical, instinctive player who is versatile enough to play inside and outside.
Draft Grade: B+
Round Two brought a steal in Akeem Ayers, the linebacker from UCLA. Ayers was looked at being a mid to late first round pick by most draftniks, and to get him where they did was a boon for the Titans. Ayers should start right away at the outside linebacker position for Tennessee.
The third round brought Jurrell Casey, a defensive tackle from USC. Casey is a one gap penetrator who can work his way into the offensive backfield. He will need to bulk up to stop the run, but Tennessee has had a long line of quality defensive tackles and they should be able to develop his talent.
A late round sleeper looks to be Colin McCarthy, a middle linebacker from Miami. McCarthy is a physical, instinctive player who is versatile enough to play inside and outside.
Draft Grade: B+
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Picking My Jaw Up Off The Floor
The first round of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. All I can say is 'WOW.' As I posted previously, some teams had a bit of a panic attack and reached for quarterbacks. Cam Newton will most likely win more hearts and minds in Carolina than ballgames. Jake Locker has all the athletic ability in the world, and he is going to get thrown into the fire right away in Tennessee. Unless they go out and get a veteran quarterback when the lockout is officially lifted, Minnesota is going to have a competition for the starting spot between Joe Webb and Christian Ponder. Then there is Jacksonville. When I heard they had traded up to #10 with Washington, my first thought was 'they are going to get a premier pass rusher.' Instead, they drafted the backup to David Garrard with the selection of Blaine Gabbert.
Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.
Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.
If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.
The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.
As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!
Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.
Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.
If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.
The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.
As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!
Friday, April 22, 2011
Draft Trade Regrets and the Binary Stars
I wonder how much regret the Carolina Panthers have now concerning the draft day trade they made with New England last season. You know they would not admit to it, but there has to be some in there somewhere.
Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.
Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.
We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.
In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.
Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.
Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.
The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.
If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.
Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.
Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.
We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.
In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.
Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.
Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.
The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.
If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Draft Day Trade Scenarios
Every year, the one thing that stirs up mock drafts of everyone who puts prospects to teams are draft day trade. But in 2011, with the uncertainty hanging over the game due to the lockout, trades may be few and far between.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Franchising in the 2nd Round
Going into the NFL Draft, teams that don't already their franchise quarterback are on the lookout for one. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and is also the face of the franchise. Selecting the right player can put a franchise on the path to greatness. The wrong pick can set a team back for years.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 5.0
The 2011 NFL Draft is now two weeks away. Mock drafts are coming fast and furious. And this is the point of the process where the draftniks need to be seen, and the best way is to make the shocking pick. Last year, it was Tim Tebow. Just about everyone had Tebow going in round 2 or later, then the Florida quarterback started creeping up the mock draft boards. Tebow had his highest mock draft slot at #9 to Buffalo, and eventually he went to Denver at #25.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
I've been away for a while. Spring is here, work needs to be done and baseball is going full speed ahead. But I've been working on the next DSA Player Rankings for the 2011 NFL Draft, and I have also come out with my second mock draft. I know, I know. I said last year that you should make your picks and stick with them. But the research I've been putting into the draft this year has allowed me to come to the conclusion that because the draft is so deep, that teams have 5-10 players at the top of their boards.
In 2010, there were basically three players seen as having the potential to go #1 overall in the draft. They were Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy. Of all the mock drafts I accumulated leading up to the draft, they were the only 3 players that the draftniks had slotted at the top. This year, I have seen 7 players at the top of the mocks. And the player many see as the top prospect, Patrick Peterson, has not been placed at #1 overall. At least none that I have found.
So here is the TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, and I because of all the uncertainty, I will make one more mock draft the afternoon of Round 1. By then one might think the draft order would be a bit more settled. But you never know.
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Nick Fairley DT
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Patrick Peterson CB
7) San Francisco Prince Amukamara CB
8) Tennessee Von Miller LB
9) Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota Jake Locker QB
13) Detroit Tyron Smith OT
14) St. Louis J.J. Watt DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Cameron Jordan DE
17) New England Mike Pouncey OG
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Ryan Kerrigan DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Nate Solder OT
23) Philadelphia Brandon Harris CB
24) New Orleans Stephen Paea DT
25) Seattle Adrian Clayborn DE
26) Baltimore Cameron Heyward DE
27) Atlanta Torrey Smith WR
28) New England Corey Liuget DT
29) Chicago Gabe Carimi OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Martez Wilson LB
I believe a new regime in Carolina is going to bring a new quarterback. Cam Newton has one attribute in excess more so than Blaine Gabbert-Charisma. I have Da'Quan Bowers falling out of the top spot due to concerns or injuries. If he checks out and still falls down the first round, some team is going to reap the benefits greatly. If Patrick Peterson falls to Cleveland at #6, it is going to be very difficult to pass on the Browns defense for years to come, pairing Peterson with Joe Haden on the corners.
The biggest reach I have is Jake Locker at #12 to Minnesota, even though previously I had him going #10 to Washington. If the Vikings believe that Joe Webb or Tavaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback for the future, it could be bleak for the offense. Locker has the skill set to play in the NFL, and if he can get his accuracy under control, he will not be a reach at all at #12 for Minnesota.
One thing about this draft is certain. A team is really going to have to screw up in Round 1 to be labeled a loser. But you never know. There is always a team that believes a player such as Darrius Heyward-Bey is worthy of the seventh overall pick.
In 2010, there were basically three players seen as having the potential to go #1 overall in the draft. They were Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy. Of all the mock drafts I accumulated leading up to the draft, they were the only 3 players that the draftniks had slotted at the top. This year, I have seen 7 players at the top of the mocks. And the player many see as the top prospect, Patrick Peterson, has not been placed at #1 overall. At least none that I have found.
So here is the TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, and I because of all the uncertainty, I will make one more mock draft the afternoon of Round 1. By then one might think the draft order would be a bit more settled. But you never know.
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Nick Fairley DT
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Patrick Peterson CB
7) San Francisco Prince Amukamara CB
8) Tennessee Von Miller LB
9) Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota Jake Locker QB
13) Detroit Tyron Smith OT
14) St. Louis J.J. Watt DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Cameron Jordan DE
17) New England Mike Pouncey OG
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Ryan Kerrigan DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Nate Solder OT
23) Philadelphia Brandon Harris CB
24) New Orleans Stephen Paea DT
25) Seattle Adrian Clayborn DE
26) Baltimore Cameron Heyward DE
27) Atlanta Torrey Smith WR
28) New England Corey Liuget DT
29) Chicago Gabe Carimi OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Martez Wilson LB
I believe a new regime in Carolina is going to bring a new quarterback. Cam Newton has one attribute in excess more so than Blaine Gabbert-Charisma. I have Da'Quan Bowers falling out of the top spot due to concerns or injuries. If he checks out and still falls down the first round, some team is going to reap the benefits greatly. If Patrick Peterson falls to Cleveland at #6, it is going to be very difficult to pass on the Browns defense for years to come, pairing Peterson with Joe Haden on the corners.
The biggest reach I have is Jake Locker at #12 to Minnesota, even though previously I had him going #10 to Washington. If the Vikings believe that Joe Webb or Tavaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback for the future, it could be bleak for the offense. Locker has the skill set to play in the NFL, and if he can get his accuracy under control, he will not be a reach at all at #12 for Minnesota.
One thing about this draft is certain. A team is really going to have to screw up in Round 1 to be labeled a loser. But you never know. There is always a team that believes a player such as Darrius Heyward-Bey is worthy of the seventh overall pick.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Panic in the Draft Rooms
Now that Pro Days have kicked into high gear on campuses across the land, it is also the time of year that one word starts to creep into draft rooms of NFL teams. Panic.
The panic comes from teams not having a franchise quarterback. Plain and simple. When mock drafts started to be released even before the Super Bowl, Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton were seen as potential #5-#15 picks, with Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett late first or even second round picks. Their performances at the combine, one would think, didn't endear the top quarterbacks to many teams. Gabbert didn't throw. Newton couldn't hit water if he were standing on a pier. Mallett answered questions at his media interviews as if he were running for office. Locker had the best overall workout, but there are accuracy questions from his senior season that still linger. After all, what top of the draft quarterback goes into the second half of his bowl game before completing a pass?
Now Pro Days have begun. Quarterbacks can show off their wares to teams under controlled and scripted workouts. Throw to receivers they are familiar with. Work with coaches that know them and their routine. And the biggest benefit of all-NFL teams start to panic and tell themselves 'We need a quarterback. We need a quarterback. We need a quarterback.'
So the Post-Combine mock drafts that are coming out are more and more putting either Gabbert or Newton at the first overall pick of the Carolina Panthers, third to Buffalo, and fourth to Cincinnati. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee and Washington are also looking for quarterbacks within the top ten. So when panic sets in at NFL Drafts Rooms, quarterbacks rise to the top of the boards.
The player who is going to benefit the most may be Ryan Mallett. Character issues are still following him, but there is no denying his talent. Of the four top quarterbacks, he is by far the most pro ready. Played in a pro style/non-spread offense, and has the best arm. A team that cannot draft Gabbert, Newton or Locker is going to trade up into the first round and grab Mallett. Which means the team that drafts Mallett is going to have a very solid piece of the puzzle in place from the top of the first round and then select their quarterback. The question is: Which team is going to panic the least and wait for the draft to unfold? We shall see.
The panic comes from teams not having a franchise quarterback. Plain and simple. When mock drafts started to be released even before the Super Bowl, Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton were seen as potential #5-#15 picks, with Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett late first or even second round picks. Their performances at the combine, one would think, didn't endear the top quarterbacks to many teams. Gabbert didn't throw. Newton couldn't hit water if he were standing on a pier. Mallett answered questions at his media interviews as if he were running for office. Locker had the best overall workout, but there are accuracy questions from his senior season that still linger. After all, what top of the draft quarterback goes into the second half of his bowl game before completing a pass?
Now Pro Days have begun. Quarterbacks can show off their wares to teams under controlled and scripted workouts. Throw to receivers they are familiar with. Work with coaches that know them and their routine. And the biggest benefit of all-NFL teams start to panic and tell themselves 'We need a quarterback. We need a quarterback. We need a quarterback.'
So the Post-Combine mock drafts that are coming out are more and more putting either Gabbert or Newton at the first overall pick of the Carolina Panthers, third to Buffalo, and fourth to Cincinnati. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee and Washington are also looking for quarterbacks within the top ten. So when panic sets in at NFL Drafts Rooms, quarterbacks rise to the top of the boards.
The player who is going to benefit the most may be Ryan Mallett. Character issues are still following him, but there is no denying his talent. Of the four top quarterbacks, he is by far the most pro ready. Played in a pro style/non-spread offense, and has the best arm. A team that cannot draft Gabbert, Newton or Locker is going to trade up into the first round and grab Mallett. Which means the team that drafts Mallett is going to have a very solid piece of the puzzle in place from the top of the first round and then select their quarterback. The question is: Which team is going to panic the least and wait for the draft to unfold? We shall see.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
2011 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
I have put together my first Mock Draft for the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. The first DSA Player Rankings had Nick Fairley as the unanimous #1 Overall Selection. The data gathered for the second round of DSA's has Fairley sharing time at the top with Da'Quan Bowers. I have already made a case for Bowers to go first, and that is where I have him at this time. So here is the first TMG DraftZone Mock Draft for 2011:
1) Carolina Da'Quan Bowers DE
2) Denver Patrick Peterson CB
3) Buffalo Cam Newton QB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Nick Fairley DT
6) Cleveland Prince Amukamara CB
7) San Francisco Blaine Gabbert QB
8) Tennessee Marcell Dareus DT
9) Dallas Von Miller LB
10) Washington Jake Locker QB
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota J.J. Watt DE
13) Detroit Nate Solder OT
14) St. Louis Julio Jones WR
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England Cameron Heyward DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE
21) Kansas City Justin Houston LB
22) Indianapolis Mike Pouncey OG
23) Philadelphia Akeem Ayers LB
24) New Orleans Tyron Smith OT
25) Seattle Jimmy Smith CB
26) Baltimore Brandon Harris CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Mikel Leshoure RB
29) Chicago Jonathon Baldwin WR
30) NY Jets Cameron Jordan DE
31) Pittsburgh Phil Taylor DT
32) Green Bay Gabe Carimi OT
Any mock draft will place players based on two main criteria: team need and gut instinct. I can see Buffalo taking Cam Newton at #3, and a lot of other draftniks are going in that direction. An exceptional workout at the NFL Scouting Combine might very well move him up to the top of the draft. I also think that Jake Locker will be moving up as well after the combine, and with the premium placed on quarterbacks, I see Washington taking him at #10.
One player that may seem to be a stretch is Kyle Rudolph at #27 to Atlanta. But as good as Tony Gonzalez has been, he won't play forever. Rudolph would make an exceptional target for Matt Ryan, and would eventually take over for the future Hall of Famer Gonzalez. Another player who for now might be a reach is Nate Solder at #13 to Detroit. But the Lions would not need to put him in the starting lineup right away, and with more polishing and seasoning he would be the protector for Matthew Stafford's blind side for years. The Lions need to protect their most valuable asset, and Solder could be the long term answer.
One player that got lost in the shuffle of a deep position is Cameron Jordan. The defensive end position is loaded, and I have 8 players at that position going in the first round. You could easily shuffle those players around (with the possible exception of Bowers), and you won't get an argument from anyone. Jordan could easily go in the top 15, and if he does fall down into the 20's, the team that is able to select him will be one that the post-draft experts will say had one of the best drafts of 2011.
The NFL Scouting Combine is underway, and this weekend will go a long way to determining which players will be moving up or down the boards of mock drafters everywhere. To what extent we shall see.
1) Carolina Da'Quan Bowers DE
2) Denver Patrick Peterson CB
3) Buffalo Cam Newton QB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Nick Fairley DT
6) Cleveland Prince Amukamara CB
7) San Francisco Blaine Gabbert QB
8) Tennessee Marcell Dareus DT
9) Dallas Von Miller LB
10) Washington Jake Locker QB
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota J.J. Watt DE
13) Detroit Nate Solder OT
14) St. Louis Julio Jones WR
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England Cameron Heyward DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE
21) Kansas City Justin Houston LB
22) Indianapolis Mike Pouncey OG
23) Philadelphia Akeem Ayers LB
24) New Orleans Tyron Smith OT
25) Seattle Jimmy Smith CB
26) Baltimore Brandon Harris CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Mikel Leshoure RB
29) Chicago Jonathon Baldwin WR
30) NY Jets Cameron Jordan DE
31) Pittsburgh Phil Taylor DT
32) Green Bay Gabe Carimi OT
Any mock draft will place players based on two main criteria: team need and gut instinct. I can see Buffalo taking Cam Newton at #3, and a lot of other draftniks are going in that direction. An exceptional workout at the NFL Scouting Combine might very well move him up to the top of the draft. I also think that Jake Locker will be moving up as well after the combine, and with the premium placed on quarterbacks, I see Washington taking him at #10.
One player that may seem to be a stretch is Kyle Rudolph at #27 to Atlanta. But as good as Tony Gonzalez has been, he won't play forever. Rudolph would make an exceptional target for Matt Ryan, and would eventually take over for the future Hall of Famer Gonzalez. Another player who for now might be a reach is Nate Solder at #13 to Detroit. But the Lions would not need to put him in the starting lineup right away, and with more polishing and seasoning he would be the protector for Matthew Stafford's blind side for years. The Lions need to protect their most valuable asset, and Solder could be the long term answer.
One player that got lost in the shuffle of a deep position is Cameron Jordan. The defensive end position is loaded, and I have 8 players at that position going in the first round. You could easily shuffle those players around (with the possible exception of Bowers), and you won't get an argument from anyone. Jordan could easily go in the top 15, and if he does fall down into the 20's, the team that is able to select him will be one that the post-draft experts will say had one of the best drafts of 2011.
The NFL Scouting Combine is underway, and this weekend will go a long way to determining which players will be moving up or down the boards of mock drafters everywhere. To what extent we shall see.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
2011 DSA Player Rankings 1.0
With the 2011 NFL Draft approaching, it is time to release the first Draft Slot Average Players rankings. I have used the previous months to refine and rework the rankings system to better reflect players positions when they are not included in mock drafts.
Last year I used a score of 35 for any player who was not included in a mock draft, and discovered that the prospects were bunched up together in the rankings. This year I have made adjustments to the rankings system that I believe will better reflect the players positions. I will be releasing the DSA rankings after accumulating 10 mock drafts, and any player who is not included in any of those 10 will be given a score of 33 if left out of one, 34 if left out of 2, 35 if left out of 3, and so forth up to 41 for each of the nine drafts they are not listed in. So with the changes I have just outlined, here are the DSA Player Rankings 1.0 for 2011:
1) Nick Fairley 1.00
2) Da'Quan Bowers 2.70
3) Patrick Peterson 3.80
4) A.J. Green 4.60
5) Marcel Dareus 6.60
6) Von Miller 6.60
7) Blaine Gabbert 7.50
8) Cam Newton 8.50
9) Robert Quinn 8.60
10) Prince Amukamara 9.00
11) Cameron Jordan 12.80
12) Julio Jones 14.90
13) Aldon Smith 15.30
14) Nate Solder 16.20
15) Akeem Ayers 18.60
16) Ryan Kerrigan 19.10
17) Tyron Smith 20.60
18) Adrian Clayborn 21.20
19) J.J, Watt 21.40
20) Mark Ingram 21.50
21) Justin Houston 23.30
22) Brandon Harris 23.40
23) Ryan Mallett 24.50
24) Gabe Carimi 25.60
25) Corey Liuget 25.70
26) Anthony Castanzo 26.30
27) Mike Pouncey 26.30
28) Derek Sherrod 27.20
29) Jake Locker 29.10
30) Jimmy Smith 29.80
31) Cameron Heyward 31.10
32) Phil Taylor 31.90
33) Torrey Smith 32.00
34) Stephen Paea 32.20
35) Jonathon Baldwin 33.00
36) Muhammad Wilkerson 33.50
37) Titus Young 35.10
38) Mikel Leshoure 35.70
39) Aaron Williams 36.10
40) Danny Watkins 37.10
41) Christian Ballard 37.30
42) Allen Bailey 37.60
Nick Fairley has been a unanimous choice so far to be the #1 Overall Selection of the 2011 NFL Draft. Even last year there were many who couldn't decide between Sam Bradford, Ndamuknog Suh and Gerald McCoy. So in 2011 it looks like the Denver Broncos are the ones on the clock.
For me the two biggest surprises are Jake Locker and Cameron Heyward. Both players would have been easy Top 10 picks in 2010 if they had decided to come out early, with Locker possibly being the top pick of the draft. Of the ten mock drafts I have gathered so far, both Locker and Heyward were included in only 4 each. But with the NFL Scouting Combine coming up this week, a strong performance by Locker and Heyward could easily vault either player back in the good graces of draftniks everywhere.
Last year I used a score of 35 for any player who was not included in a mock draft, and discovered that the prospects were bunched up together in the rankings. This year I have made adjustments to the rankings system that I believe will better reflect the players positions. I will be releasing the DSA rankings after accumulating 10 mock drafts, and any player who is not included in any of those 10 will be given a score of 33 if left out of one, 34 if left out of 2, 35 if left out of 3, and so forth up to 41 for each of the nine drafts they are not listed in. So with the changes I have just outlined, here are the DSA Player Rankings 1.0 for 2011:
1) Nick Fairley 1.00
2) Da'Quan Bowers 2.70
3) Patrick Peterson 3.80
4) A.J. Green 4.60
5) Marcel Dareus 6.60
6) Von Miller 6.60
7) Blaine Gabbert 7.50
8) Cam Newton 8.50
9) Robert Quinn 8.60
10) Prince Amukamara 9.00
11) Cameron Jordan 12.80
12) Julio Jones 14.90
13) Aldon Smith 15.30
14) Nate Solder 16.20
15) Akeem Ayers 18.60
16) Ryan Kerrigan 19.10
17) Tyron Smith 20.60
18) Adrian Clayborn 21.20
19) J.J, Watt 21.40
20) Mark Ingram 21.50
21) Justin Houston 23.30
22) Brandon Harris 23.40
23) Ryan Mallett 24.50
24) Gabe Carimi 25.60
25) Corey Liuget 25.70
26) Anthony Castanzo 26.30
27) Mike Pouncey 26.30
28) Derek Sherrod 27.20
29) Jake Locker 29.10
30) Jimmy Smith 29.80
31) Cameron Heyward 31.10
32) Phil Taylor 31.90
33) Torrey Smith 32.00
34) Stephen Paea 32.20
35) Jonathon Baldwin 33.00
36) Muhammad Wilkerson 33.50
37) Titus Young 35.10
38) Mikel Leshoure 35.70
39) Aaron Williams 36.10
40) Danny Watkins 37.10
41) Christian Ballard 37.30
42) Allen Bailey 37.60
Nick Fairley has been a unanimous choice so far to be the #1 Overall Selection of the 2011 NFL Draft. Even last year there were many who couldn't decide between Sam Bradford, Ndamuknog Suh and Gerald McCoy. So in 2011 it looks like the Denver Broncos are the ones on the clock.
For me the two biggest surprises are Jake Locker and Cameron Heyward. Both players would have been easy Top 10 picks in 2010 if they had decided to come out early, with Locker possibly being the top pick of the draft. Of the ten mock drafts I have gathered so far, both Locker and Heyward were included in only 4 each. But with the NFL Scouting Combine coming up this week, a strong performance by Locker and Heyward could easily vault either player back in the good graces of draftniks everywhere.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Early Returns
The first wave of Post-Super Bowl 2011 NFL Mock Drafts are starting to roll in, and here are some early observations from the Mock Draft information I have gathered so far:
Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.
Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.
Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.
Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.
There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.
Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.
There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.
I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.
Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.
Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.
Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.
Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.
There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.
Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.
There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.
I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Senior Bowl Movers
All Star games at the professional level are, for the most part, offensive exhibitions where the objective is not so much to win as not get hurt. Baseball is the one exception. Pitchers can control the game like no other, and there does seem to be more pride for each league to win the game. The Senior Bowl for college football players is not just a game but a working job interview. It is a chance to impress the pro scouts, and more importantly, the NFL coaches in charge of each team.
This year, I noticed some players whose stock looked to rise and fall with their play on the field. The highest rated player going into the game was Von Miller, the linebacker from Texas A&M, and he played that way in the game. He was all over the field, making one tackle after another and even playing special teams. He could very well end up like Rolando McClain going into the draft from last season. McClain was seen as mid first round pick, but he wound up going 8th overall to Oakland. He started from Day 1 and looks to be the anchor of the Raiders defense for years to come. Miller was slotted by some experts in the 10th to 15th range, but he could very well jump inot the top 10 if he impresses at the NFL Scouting Combine as well.
Ryan Kerrigan was nearly unstoppable at Purdue coming off the edge, and had many comparing him to Chris Long. I don't believe anyone has him going 2nd overall, but his play in the Senior Bowl looked very much like Brandon Graham in 2010. Similar style of play, with a non-stop motor. Graham dominated the 2010 Senior Bowl, and his stock went through the roof. Philadelphia traded up to take him with the 13th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Kerrigan could go that high as well.
There were questions about Leonard Hankerson and his speed on the outside. I do believe that the best scouts will see past that and find a receiver who will have a solid career in the NFL. You can have all the speed you want at the receiver position (Darrius Heyward-Bey), but there will always be a place for a big receiver who can run a good route, find his way to the ball, and catch it when it comes his way. Hankerson was seen as a middle round selection, but I can see him going late 2nd down to middle 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Nate Solder was seen as the best or second best offensive tackle going into the Senior Bowl, and he has all the physical tools. But I saw a raw talent who missed blocks and played a bit too stiff at left tackle. If he gets thrown in right away in the pros his confidence could take a hit right away. If he is getting beat in the Senior Bowl, what is going to happen against the elite pass rushers in the NFL?
Then there is Jake Locker. He was seen as a possible #1 Overall Pick if had had come out early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He decided to stay in school and it has been all downhill since. No one questions his athletic ability, but consistency and accuracy are seen as the strikes against his development as an elite pro quarterback. He did very little to change the minds of draft experts. Locker was seen by many as going as high as #10 to Washington, but I'm beginning to believe that he may not get picked in the first round at all. It could be argued that Colin Kaepernick from Nevada played a better Senior Bowl than Locker. With the Cincinnati Bengals coaching both players in the Senior Bowl, and not having the Carson Palmer situation settled as of yet, it would be interesting to see which one of the 2 quarterbacks the Bengals might take with the third pick of the 2nd Round. My guess would be Locker. There is too much talent to pass up.
The draft hopefuls now look forward to the NFL Scouting Combine at the end of February in Indianapolis. With the Super Bowl a week away, draft season will soon be kicking into high gear. It looks to be a very deep draft once again, an dwith no clear cut #1 overall pick, it will be interesting to see just how many experts will be changing their mock drafts. We shall see.
This year, I noticed some players whose stock looked to rise and fall with their play on the field. The highest rated player going into the game was Von Miller, the linebacker from Texas A&M, and he played that way in the game. He was all over the field, making one tackle after another and even playing special teams. He could very well end up like Rolando McClain going into the draft from last season. McClain was seen as mid first round pick, but he wound up going 8th overall to Oakland. He started from Day 1 and looks to be the anchor of the Raiders defense for years to come. Miller was slotted by some experts in the 10th to 15th range, but he could very well jump inot the top 10 if he impresses at the NFL Scouting Combine as well.
Ryan Kerrigan was nearly unstoppable at Purdue coming off the edge, and had many comparing him to Chris Long. I don't believe anyone has him going 2nd overall, but his play in the Senior Bowl looked very much like Brandon Graham in 2010. Similar style of play, with a non-stop motor. Graham dominated the 2010 Senior Bowl, and his stock went through the roof. Philadelphia traded up to take him with the 13th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Kerrigan could go that high as well.
There were questions about Leonard Hankerson and his speed on the outside. I do believe that the best scouts will see past that and find a receiver who will have a solid career in the NFL. You can have all the speed you want at the receiver position (Darrius Heyward-Bey), but there will always be a place for a big receiver who can run a good route, find his way to the ball, and catch it when it comes his way. Hankerson was seen as a middle round selection, but I can see him going late 2nd down to middle 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Nate Solder was seen as the best or second best offensive tackle going into the Senior Bowl, and he has all the physical tools. But I saw a raw talent who missed blocks and played a bit too stiff at left tackle. If he gets thrown in right away in the pros his confidence could take a hit right away. If he is getting beat in the Senior Bowl, what is going to happen against the elite pass rushers in the NFL?
Then there is Jake Locker. He was seen as a possible #1 Overall Pick if had had come out early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He decided to stay in school and it has been all downhill since. No one questions his athletic ability, but consistency and accuracy are seen as the strikes against his development as an elite pro quarterback. He did very little to change the minds of draft experts. Locker was seen by many as going as high as #10 to Washington, but I'm beginning to believe that he may not get picked in the first round at all. It could be argued that Colin Kaepernick from Nevada played a better Senior Bowl than Locker. With the Cincinnati Bengals coaching both players in the Senior Bowl, and not having the Carson Palmer situation settled as of yet, it would be interesting to see which one of the 2 quarterbacks the Bengals might take with the third pick of the 2nd Round. My guess would be Locker. There is too much talent to pass up.
The draft hopefuls now look forward to the NFL Scouting Combine at the end of February in Indianapolis. With the Super Bowl a week away, draft season will soon be kicking into high gear. It looks to be a very deep draft once again, an dwith no clear cut #1 overall pick, it will be interesting to see just how many experts will be changing their mock drafts. We shall see.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Quarterbacks and more Quarterbacks
The NFL Playoffs are down to 4, with the New York Jets pulling off the upset at New England. If you look at the remaining teams, it shows how much teams value the quarterback position. Ben Roethlisberger is the old man of the group, coming into the league in 2004. He has won 2 Super Bowls, and is now making his fourth appearance in the AFC Championship Game. You can say what you want about his off-field problems, but Big Ben is the rock that the Steelers have built their foundation on. Remember all the talk at the beginning of the season about Pittsburgh trading Roethlisberger away because of all the problems and the bad light it put the franchise in? You don't hear much about that anymore, do you?
Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 with the thought that he would eventually replace Brett Favre. He sat and watched for three season, then Favre announced his retirement after the Packers loss in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers was made the starter, and when Favre announced he was coming back, the Packers did what many considered unthinkable and traded the Packer legend to the Jets. Rodgers has led the Packers to the playoffs the last two seasons, and was nearly perfect in a dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday. Packer fans may have felt the front office was out of their minds to trade Favre. I don't think too many feel that way now.
The Chicago Bears looked like they might be mortgaging their future a bit when they traded for Jay Cutler. The move left them with no picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft, and though he has ability to burn, Cutler had yet to prove himself a winner in Denver. His first season in Chicago saw Cutler getting intercepted at an alarming rate, and winding up on his backside just as often. But the arrival of Mike Martz has had a tremendous effect on Cutler, and this weekend he became the first quarterback to throw for 2 touchdowns and run for 2 in the same game since Otto Graham. He is now one game away from leading the Bears to the Super Bowl.
The New York Jets traded up with Cleveland to select Mark Sanchez with the 5th Overall selection of the 2009 NFL Draft. Combined with Coach Rex Ryan, they have given the Jets a swagger and confidence that the franchise has not had for years, and now they have won 4 road playoff games in their first two seasons. After getting handily beaten in December by the Patriots, the Jets went into Foxboro and knocked off the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. Now they are one game away from leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl since another quarterback with an excess of confidence, Joe Namath, led New York to victory in Super Bowl III.
Quarterback is the most important position in team sports. Next weekend, four quarterbacks that their teams have trusted with the keys to the franchise will try to drive them to the ultimate destination, the Super Bowl. With the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft, teams will be looking for find the quarterback that can lead their teams to the same destination. Will it be Ryan Mallett? Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, or Jake Locker? Or will it be a diamond in the rough like Tom Brady? Only time, and Lombardi Trophies, will tell the whole story.
Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 with the thought that he would eventually replace Brett Favre. He sat and watched for three season, then Favre announced his retirement after the Packers loss in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers was made the starter, and when Favre announced he was coming back, the Packers did what many considered unthinkable and traded the Packer legend to the Jets. Rodgers has led the Packers to the playoffs the last two seasons, and was nearly perfect in a dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday. Packer fans may have felt the front office was out of their minds to trade Favre. I don't think too many feel that way now.
The Chicago Bears looked like they might be mortgaging their future a bit when they traded for Jay Cutler. The move left them with no picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft, and though he has ability to burn, Cutler had yet to prove himself a winner in Denver. His first season in Chicago saw Cutler getting intercepted at an alarming rate, and winding up on his backside just as often. But the arrival of Mike Martz has had a tremendous effect on Cutler, and this weekend he became the first quarterback to throw for 2 touchdowns and run for 2 in the same game since Otto Graham. He is now one game away from leading the Bears to the Super Bowl.
The New York Jets traded up with Cleveland to select Mark Sanchez with the 5th Overall selection of the 2009 NFL Draft. Combined with Coach Rex Ryan, they have given the Jets a swagger and confidence that the franchise has not had for years, and now they have won 4 road playoff games in their first two seasons. After getting handily beaten in December by the Patriots, the Jets went into Foxboro and knocked off the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. Now they are one game away from leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl since another quarterback with an excess of confidence, Joe Namath, led New York to victory in Super Bowl III.
Quarterback is the most important position in team sports. Next weekend, four quarterbacks that their teams have trusted with the keys to the franchise will try to drive them to the ultimate destination, the Super Bowl. With the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft, teams will be looking for find the quarterback that can lead their teams to the same destination. Will it be Ryan Mallett? Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, or Jake Locker? Or will it be a diamond in the rough like Tom Brady? Only time, and Lombardi Trophies, will tell the whole story.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Carolina has no Luck at all
Andrew Luck has made his decision, and he is remaining at Stanford. The 2011 NFL Draft has lost it's brightest star, but there is still plenty of talented players on the board and yet to declare. Now the Carolina Panthers have a franchise altering decision to make. Do they use the 1st Overall Selection of the draft on a quarterback, or do they believe that Jimmy Clausen or Matt Moore is the answer and go in another direction.
The top four quarterbacks are Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. I believe that Carolina will see their two incumbents and say that they are better off with Clausen and Moore. So it looks like they may be headed to shoring up the defense.
When Carolina came off of a 1-15 season in 2001, their first draft pick the next year was Julius Peppers. Peppers was a freak at the defensive end position. Tall enough to play basketball in college, and strong and fast enough to consistently pressure quarterbacks in the NFL. He was the cornerstone of the Panthers defense that made it to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and earned the #2 Seed in the NFC after the 2008 season. But Peppers left for Chicago via free agency, and though Charles Johnson emerged as a pass rushing threat, the Panthers defense still ranked near the bottom of the league.
The NFL is a quarterback driven league. You need one to lead the offense, and you need to get to the other teams' quarterback to stop the opposition. If the Panthers do not get Johnson help on at the other end, he will face more and more double teams and his production will drop. So with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers select...Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end fro Clemson.
Bowers was all but unblockable last season at Clemson. 24 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. If he were paired with Johnson the Panthers would have a pass rushing duo that compares favorably to a younger version of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in Indianapolis. If Bowers can translate his success at Clemson to the NFL he coudl very easily be the taken at the top of the draft.
Carolina has 3 and a half months to determine if they player they are going to select will have the impact that Julius Peppers had 9 years ago. The right decision get them out of the cellar. The wrong decision keeps them on the clock for the 2012 NFL Draft. We shall see.
The top four quarterbacks are Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. I believe that Carolina will see their two incumbents and say that they are better off with Clausen and Moore. So it looks like they may be headed to shoring up the defense.
When Carolina came off of a 1-15 season in 2001, their first draft pick the next year was Julius Peppers. Peppers was a freak at the defensive end position. Tall enough to play basketball in college, and strong and fast enough to consistently pressure quarterbacks in the NFL. He was the cornerstone of the Panthers defense that made it to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and earned the #2 Seed in the NFC after the 2008 season. But Peppers left for Chicago via free agency, and though Charles Johnson emerged as a pass rushing threat, the Panthers defense still ranked near the bottom of the league.
The NFL is a quarterback driven league. You need one to lead the offense, and you need to get to the other teams' quarterback to stop the opposition. If the Panthers do not get Johnson help on at the other end, he will face more and more double teams and his production will drop. So with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers select...Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end fro Clemson.
Bowers was all but unblockable last season at Clemson. 24 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. If he were paired with Johnson the Panthers would have a pass rushing duo that compares favorably to a younger version of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in Indianapolis. If Bowers can translate his success at Clemson to the NFL he coudl very easily be the taken at the top of the draft.
Carolina has 3 and a half months to determine if they player they are going to select will have the impact that Julius Peppers had 9 years ago. The right decision get them out of the cellar. The wrong decision keeps them on the clock for the 2012 NFL Draft. We shall see.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
#1 With A Bullet
After his performance in the Orange Bowl, Andrew Luck all but cemented his status as the first overall selection in the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. Now there are two big questions surrounding the selection of Luck. Will Carolina hold onto the pick, and will Luck enter the draft.
Carolina has a lot of needs, as most 2-14 teams have, and the big question is do they believe in either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. There are a lot of teams that need a quarterback, and with the depth at the position this year they may feel that their future franchise quarterback can be found later in the first round. But Luck is as good of a quarterback prospect since Troy Aikman. Accurate, smart, and pro ready. But with Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton in this draft, the Panthers may decide that if someone offers a Ricky Williams blockbuster deal that it would be too good to pass up with all of their needs on both sides of the ball.
But what may be the bigger question is whether Luck will enter the draft at all. And there are three words that may determine his entry: Collective Bargaining Agreement. Luck is a sophomore eligible, so he has 2 years remaining in college if he decides to stay. The NFL and it's players association appear to be heading for a standoff, and there is a very good chance that a long lockout will ensue. If it looks like there may not be pro football next season, Luck may stay in school, where he knows that Stanford will suit up in 2011. The deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th. Luck has eleven days to make up his mind. He is living his own version of an old country song. Heads Carolina. Tails California. We shall see.
Carolina has a lot of needs, as most 2-14 teams have, and the big question is do they believe in either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. There are a lot of teams that need a quarterback, and with the depth at the position this year they may feel that their future franchise quarterback can be found later in the first round. But Luck is as good of a quarterback prospect since Troy Aikman. Accurate, smart, and pro ready. But with Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton in this draft, the Panthers may decide that if someone offers a Ricky Williams blockbuster deal that it would be too good to pass up with all of their needs on both sides of the ball.
But what may be the bigger question is whether Luck will enter the draft at all. And there are three words that may determine his entry: Collective Bargaining Agreement. Luck is a sophomore eligible, so he has 2 years remaining in college if he decides to stay. The NFL and it's players association appear to be heading for a standoff, and there is a very good chance that a long lockout will ensue. If it looks like there may not be pro football next season, Luck may stay in school, where he knows that Stanford will suit up in 2011. The deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th. Luck has eleven days to make up his mind. He is living his own version of an old country song. Heads Carolina. Tails California. We shall see.
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