My views, opinions and research covering news, information, and commentary for the months leading up to the NFL Draft, along with post-draft perspectives on the winners and losers.
Showing posts with label DSA Player Rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DSA Player Rankings. Show all posts
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Defense Wins Championships
The Seattle Seahawks proved the old adage true tonight in putting a WWE-style smackdown on the Denver Broncos 43-8 to capture the Super Bowl. My prediction of a 3 point Denver win was off just a little (to say the least!), but I'm not sure too many people saw this coming. But I think it is safe to say that the rout was spotted about 12 seconds into the game when a botched snap led to a safety, and it was all downhill from there for Denver.
I can't help but think what this win for Seattle will do for the draft stock of defensive players going into the upcoming 2014 NFL Draft. Yes, having a franchise quarterback is important, don't get me wrong, but if you have a defense that can go facemask to facemask with the best in the game and completely shut them down like the Seahawks did then there are going to be a lot of teams rethink their draft plan and who they might take in May. After all, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
It was pointed out during the broadcast that the Seahawks defense was built from the back forward, and that is very much against the norm. A front four can get pressure on the quarterback if he doesn't have any one to throw to, and with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and friends in the secondary, it was nearly impossible all season for opponents of Seattle.
Looking at the top draft prospects, I can easily see Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, Justin Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard, Jason Varrett and all of the top secondary prospects moving up the draft boards for the next three months. And if I were scouting for an NFL team, I'd take a look at corners that can physically match up with receivers even though they may not have the speed one has usually coveted. If a corner can win the battle off the line of scrimmage, it is easier to keep coverage throughout the play. Who needs catch up speed if you are already blanketing the target.
With the season over, I'll start gathering my DSA Player Ranking data and putting out my own mock drafts. This is a time that I always look forward to, the time when hope springs eternal. Until that first bad draft pick for your team makes you yell out 'WHAT THE BLEEP WERE THEY THINKING!!!'
Sunday, April 21, 2013
DSA Player Rankings 6.0--2013 Final Edition
It is time for the final edition of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings for 2013. I normally post this the day of the draft, but this year I'm going on vacation and leaving my computer and research behind. There may be a surprise player move up, but I don't see the top of the draft changing much at all.
Geno Smith is the biggest drop at the top, falling four spots down to #9. With a clean bill of health, Star Lotulelei looks to be a near certain Top Ten pick, and he moved up 3 positions in the final DSA's. Tavon Austin is the premier playmaker on offense in the draft, and he jumped up 4 spots to #14. Safety is one position that is deep with very talented players, and I can see a run on the top players at the position come Thursday night. Kenny Vaccaro is the top rated safety at #17, but Matt Elam jumped 9 spots to #21, and Eric Reid and Jonathon Cyprien but made a huge move up the charts. Both players gained 16 positions in the DSA's, up to #28 and #29, respectively.
And it seems that the fall of Damontre Moore is nearly complete. Once seen as a possible #3 overall pick to Oakland, Moore was shut out of all the mock drafts I researched for the final DSA's. In all the time I've done this, I've never seen that happen. Moore might still get a surprise call in Round 1, but if not I do not see him lasting too long in Round 2. There is too much talent there for teams to pass him by for too long on Day 2.
So here is the final TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings for 2013:
1) Luke Joeckel 1.60
2) Dion Jordan 3.10
3) Eric Fisher 3.90
4) Sharrif Floyd 5.50
5) Dee Milliner 6.40
6) Lane Johnson 6.60
7) Ezekiel Ansah 7.20
8) Star Lotulelei 8.80
9) Geno Smith 11.30
10) Chance Warmack 11.30
11) Barkevious Mingo 11.80
12) Jonathon Cooper 12.30
13) Xavier Rhodes 13.80
14) Tavon Austin 14.30
15) Sheldon Richardson 14.80
16) Jarvis Jones 15.90
17) Kenny Vaccaro 16.60
18) Cordarrelle Patterson 20.50
19) D.J. Fluker 22.00
20) Alec Ogletree 22.60
21) Matt Elam 24.10
22) Bjoern Werner 24.30
23) Tyler Eifert 24.50
24) Sylvester Williams 24.50
25) Keenan Allen 25.90
26) Desmond Trufant 26.00
27) Manti Te'o 27.00
28) Eric Reid 30.10
29) Jonathon Cyprien 30.50
30) Cornelius Carradine 31.40
31) Datone Jones 31.40
32) Justin Hunter 31.40
33) Robert Woods 31.90
34) Menelik Watson 32.60
35) Kevin Minter 32.60
36) Zach Ertz 34.40
37) DeAndre Hopkins 34.50
38) Jamar Taylor 35.40
39) Margus Hunt 36.40
40) Eddie Lacy 36.80
41) D.J. Hayden 37.80
I look forward to the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft on Thursday. Without a sure fire lock at the top, is could very well be one that people will be debating for a long, long time.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
DSA Player Rankings 5.0--The Post Free Agnecy Edition
Greetings and Salutations to All. The TMG DraftZone is back after a brief hiatus. Too much work and not enough time to write is making your favorite NFL Draft Blogger a very worn out, very dull boy. But I've been able to accumulate the latest NFL Mock Draft data to compile The Post Free Agency DSA Player Rankings, Version 5.0
In the time since free agency started, what have we learned in regards to the 2013 NFL Draft? The more teams change their roster, the more their draft needs stay the same. Kansas City still needs a bookend tackle who can eventually replace Brandon Albert. Jacksonville still needs a pass rusher and a franchise quarterback. Oakland needs a defensive tackle, and just about everything else, including a quarterback. Just because they traded for Matt Flynn, are getting rid of Carson Palmer, and still have Terrelle Pyror on the roster don't count the Raiders out of the Geno Smith Sweepstakes. Flynn may be a change of direction, but if you keep changing your direction by turning the same way all the time, all you do is keep going in circles.
The DSA Player Rankings 5.0 shows not a lot of movement at the top. Luke Joeckel is still the choice of mock drafts everywhere to go #1 Overall to Kansas City. The Jaguars need to get a pass rusher has moved Dion Jordan up to #2, Oakland still looks like the landing spot for Sharrif Floyd at #3, and Chip Kelly would love to have Eric Fisher anchoring his offensive line in Philadelphia, and Fisher is the pick of many to land with the Eagles with the fourth pick. One casualty of free agency appears to be Cordarrelle Patterson, who looked to be a lock to go no later than #12 to Miami, until the Dolphins went out and signed Mike Wallace. As Patterson falls seven spots, Tavon Austni rises seven as well. Patterson might still be targeted by Buffalo at #8, and Austin looks to be in the sights of St. Louis at #16, but this draft is truly shaping up to be one for The Big Uglies up front. No running backs look to go in Round 1, many see only 1 quarterback going in the first 32 picks (although I still see a major Panic In The Draft Room epidemic breaking out), and though as many as 4 receivers could go in round 1, none look to go in the first seven selections. This is going to be an interesting draft to say the least. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 5.0, the Post Free Agency Edition:
1) Luke Joeckel 1.70
2) Dion Jordan 3.90
3) Sharrif Floyd 4.10
4) Eric Fisher 4.20
5) Geno Smith 5.10
6) Dee Milliner 5.30
7) Lane Johnson 9.40
8) Ezekiel Ansah 9.90
9) Barkevious Mingo 11.00
10) Xavier Rhodes 11.90
11) Star Lotulelei 12.30
12) Chance Warmack 12.70
13) Jarvis Jones 14.10
14) Jonathon Cooper 14.40
15) Sheldon Richardson 15.10
16) Bjoern Werner 15.80
17) Cordarrelle Patterson 18.20
18) Tavon Austin 18.20
19) Kenny Vaccaro 18.40
20) Alec Ogletree 22.90
21) D.J. Fluker 24.20
22) Desmond Trufant 25.80
23) Datone Jones 26.90
24) Keenan Allen 27.40
25) Tyler Eifert 27.50
26) DeAndre Hopkins 29.60
27) Matt Barkley 29.70
28) Sylvester Williams 29.80
29) Manti Te'o 30.30
30) Matt Elam 31.00
31) Johnathon Hankins 31.40
32) Robert Woods 32.60
33) Cornelius Carradine 32.90
34) Arthur Brown 33.30
35) Jesse Williams 34.70
36) Eddie Lacy 34.70
37) Justin Hunter 34.90
38) Damontre Moore 35.30
39) Menelik Watson 35.60
40) Margus Hunt 35.60
41) Kevin Minter 35.60
42) Johnathon Banks 35.70
43) Kawann Short 36.90
44) Eric Reid 38.10
I listed the top 44 players on this edition of the DSA Player Rankings, because that is how many players are getting solid looks at going in Round 1. It doesn't look like there is going to be a Chandler Jones or Shea McClellan this year, a player who appears to come out of nowhere late to make his way up into the first round. But this draft is so deep that players who have been getting grades to go around #25 will be going late in Round 2. Eric Reid is at the end of the list at #44, but a very strong Pro Day at LSU will make him to be this years best candidate to surprise in Round 1. And every year there is one player whose stock falls so far all you hear is the Hollywood Wilhelm Scream and he disappears from sight. So to honor the player who looks to be the biggest faller on the draft boards, I'm going to name this the Da'Quan Bowers Stone Drop Award. Bowers went from the early presumptive #1 Overall Pick in 2011, until concerns about his knees dropped him all the way to Tampa Bay at #51 in the 2011 NFL Draft. The year's recepient is Damontre Moore, the defensive end from Texas A&M.
When the first DSA Player Rankings were released, Moore was a solid #3. Then the NFL Scouting Combine happened. Moore showed a surprising lack of strength and speed, and his draft stock has increasingly dropped. DSA 2.0 had Moore 9th, 3.0 at 19th, 4.0 seemed to signal a halt at 20th, but the 5.0 DSA Player Rankings have Moore at #38. It does not appear that Moore will be rising up the ranks any time soon. With the depth of defensive lineman, why should a team take a flyer on a player who doesn't look to have the motivation to show teams that his performance at the Combnie is not the player they will be getting in the draft. Moore has the talent to be an impact pass rusher in the NFL, and if he plays with the chip on his shoulder to prove everyone wrong he will be just that. Let's hope for the team that takes Moore that that chip is there from Day 1.
I'm sure the next DSA Player Rankings will be the Geno Smith Show. With all the quarterback moves taking place, the big mock draft debate will be who is going to take Smith and where. It's going to be an interesting 23 Days up until the 2013 NFL Draft.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Prelude to Free Agent Feeding Frenzy
The start of the NFL's free agent signing period 'officially' starts tomorrow, and the frenzy to get players has already started. Agents have been able to talk to teams for three days now, so when 4 pm comes around and the deals can be made official, they should start to come fast and furious. But two trades today that were announced will have a huge impact on the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft.
The Baltimore Ravens pretty much told Anquan Boldin to stick it, and agreed to trade the wide receiver for what could amount to a cup of coffee in a 6th Round pick. Boldin is entering his 11th season in the NFL, but he is still a very productive receiver who, when on the field with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore, is going to give Colin Kaepernick one of the best receiving corps in the game. San Francisco was sitting at #31 and #34, and if they had any thoughts of taking a receiver at that point it's pretty much out the window. What will be interesting to see is what will happen to last year's first round pick in A.J. Jenkins. Jenkins was a non-factor the entire season, and if the 49ers feel that they can sign Boldin for a couple of more seasons without breaking the bank, San Francisco may just try to trade Jenkins and get back that sixth rounder. But with their load of picks still remaining, Jenkins may just find himself a casualty when roster cuts come around.
The other big trade that was announced has Percy Harvin going to Seattle for a first round and seventh round pick this year, and a pick next season. The deal is contingent on Harvin passing a physical, but if he gets the all clear the Seahawks will be getting a dynamic playmaker who is a significant upgrade to whoever they may have gotten at #25. Now Minnesota is most certainly going to be taking a wide receiver in the first round. The Vikings went into the off-season looking to add an outside threat to help quarterback Christian Ponder and take some of the load off of Adrian Peterson. Now Ponder doesn't have anyone his most dangerous weapon to throw to, and it will be seen if Minnesota takes not just one but maybe two receivers in Round 1. I believe that Cordarrelle Patterson and Keenan Allen will be off the board by the time Minnesota selects at #23, But if they could pick up the tandem of Tavon Austin and Justin Hunter it will be interesting to see how the Kiddie Korps develops over time for the Vikings.
I will be releasing the Post-Start of Free Agency DSA Player Rankings later in the week, and the signings and trades that will be announced starting tomorrow will start to round in to shape what teams will be looking to draft what players in next months 2013 NFL Draft. Let the feeding frenzy begin.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
2013 DSA Player Rankings 4.0--Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition
We are just over a week removed from the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine, and Pro Days are starting up at universities and colleges all across the nation. Free agancy begins in less than a week, and mock drafts are starting to reflect the moves already made and those that may be made. The players at the top of the mock drafts appear to be pretty much set, and those at the bottom half of Round 1 look like they could be listed in any order and no one would be surprised. I call this the Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, version 4.0.
Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher are still in the top 2 slots, Dee Milliner and Dion Jordan are still #4 and #5 respectively, Ezekiel Ansah is #7 and Barkevious Mingo is #9. Geno Smith and Sharrif Floyd exchanged positions at #3 and #6, with Floyd moving up behind Joeckel and Fisher in the top three. The biggest move up in the top half was Jarvis Jones, now at #11, and the largest drop at the top was Bjoern Werner, falling six moer positions to #14. Looking at the top 18 players, there isn't that big of a talent gap among the group. A player like Kenny Vaccaro or Xavier Rhodes could easily move up to the top 10 if a team values their talent enough, and Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah could fall to the middle of Round 1 if they are seen as too raw or unpolished. But for now I do not see anyone making the jump up into the top group.
The reason is that the gap between player ratings I mentioned in the previous DSA's is getting even larger. Vaccaro is stuck in the middle, but there is now a nearly 6 point gap between Jonathon Cooper at #17 and Keenan Allen at #19. The players at the bottom are bunched up ratings points wise. Less than 3 points separate six players from #20 to #25, and the last seven spots are less than 2 points apart.
The biggest risers and fallers are found in the lower half. Sylvester Williams makes his first appearance at #27, and Sam Montgomery is back in at #34. Montgomery at the same position as the first DSA's this year, but his score is a full three points less. Arthur Brown also makes his first appearance, and he nearly surpassed Manti Te'o. If Te'o does not impress during his Pro Day at Notre Dame, look for the Heisman Trophy runner-up to start showing up in Round 2 of mock drafts everywhere.
So here is the 2013 DSA Player Rankings 4.0--The Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition:
1) Luke Joeckel 1.40
2) Eric Fisher 4.30
3) Sharrif Floyd 4.70
4) Dee Milliner 5.00
5) Dion Jordan 5.10
6) Geno Smith 6.30
7) Ezekiel Ansah 8.40
8) Lane Johnson 10.60
9) Barkevious Mingo 10.70
10) Cordarrelle Patterson 11.90
11) Jarvis Jones 13.00
12) Star Lotulelei 13.10
13) Chance Warmack 13.30
14) Bjoern Werner 14.30
15) Xavier Rhodes 14.60
16) Sheldon Richardson 14.70
17) Jonathon Cooper 15.90
18) Kenny Vaccaro 18.30
19) Keenan Allen 21.40
20) Damontre Moore 22.70
21) Tyler Eifert 22.70
22) D.J. Fluker 23.80
23) Alec Ogletree 24.30
24) Desmond Trufant 25.40
25) Tavon Austin 25.50
26) Datone Jones 28.90
27) Sylvester Williams 29.30
28) Johnathon Hankins 30.40
29) DeAndre Hopkins 33.00
30) Kawann Short 33.40
31) Manti Te'o 33.50
32) Arthur Brown 33.90
33) Cornelius Carradine 34.30
34) Sam Montgomery 34.60
35) Matt Elam 34.90
In case you are wondering what has happened to Matt Barkley, of the ten mock drafts I compiled for this DSA, he was at #9 in one and out of the other 9. In fact, Tyler Wilson had a higher grade, as he was at #8 in one and out of the other 9 as well. The rumors coming out of the Scouting Combine about the Cardinals taking Barkley at #7 seem to be fading. I have made the bold prediction that 5 quarterbacks will be selected in the 1st Round, and right now I can say that there will need to be a severe case of Panic In The Draft Room for it to happen. Geno Smith looks to go in either the seventh, eighth, or ninth picks, and any other quarterbacks will most likely go at the bottom of Round 1 via teams trading up to get their quarterback of the future.
Considering how deep and balanced this draft is, who goes where and when is not going to surprise me at all. So far, I have listed 56 players from various mock drafts that have gotten a first round grade. That is nearly enough to fill the first 2 rounds. I will say this: someone is really going to have to screw up their picks to get a draft grade below a C this year. Let the Pro Days commence, and let's see who is moving up and down for the next edition of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
2013 DSA Player Rankings 3.0 Post-Combine Edition
The 2013 NFL Scouting Combine has come and gone, and it is time for the DSA Palyer Rankings 3.0, the Post-Combine Edition. The players have done the drills, taken the tests, and interviewed until they are blue in the face. Now it is time to analyze the results of last weekend in Indianapolis.
The players that have stood out the most, for better or worse, are also the ones that are taking the biggest hits on their mock draft ratings, and in the DSA Player Rankings. The biggest drop was from Johnathon Hankins, who many see as a player who should have stayed in college another year. Hankins is talented, and can be a premier run stopper, but he still needs some polishing. Hankins fell 12 spots, but he still looks to be a late first/early second round pick. The next three biggest drops came from players who either underperformed or didn't perform at all. In the previous DSA Player Rankings, Damontre Moore dropped from #3 to #9. Now Moore has dropped another 10 spots to #19. His on-field workouts were lackluster, and his showing in the weight room was less than stellar. Moore could still be a top 10 selection in the upcoming draft, but his pro day workout had better be impressive.
Two players that did not work out and who are taking hits on their draft stack are Jarvis Jones and Star Lotulelei. Jones chose not to work out, but questions concerning his spinal stenosis have thrown up red flags about his long term health. But the biggest health concern came from Lotulelei. He was shown to have a circulation problem with a heart ventricle, and he did not get a chance to show teams that he is the dominant defensive tackle on the draft boards. Lotulelei fell 10 spots, and Jones fell nine.
The biggest sideshow of the combine was Manti Te'o. He answered all the questions concerning his alleged girlfriend and the whole catfish hoax, but he failed to impress on the field. His 40 time of 4.82 was slower than expected, and he did not stand out from the pack. Coupled with his poor showing in the BCS Championship Game, his draft stock is going even further down. Te'o fell another 8 spots in the latest DSA Player Rankings.
Perhaps the oddest drop belongs to Bjoern Werner. But his fall in the DSA's is indicitive of how wide open this draft is going to be. Werner fell 6 spots, but in 4 of the 10 mock drafts I used for this DSA Rankings he was listed at #2 on the boards to Jacksonville, and on antoher Werner was 3rd. But Werner was also placed at #18 three times and #19 once. The draft is loaded with a lot of very good players that could go anywhere in Round 1 or Round 2. This is very much a 15/35/55 Draft. The player that goes at #55 is going to be as good as the one at #35, and that player is going to be as good as the one at #15.
The biggest movers up are, for the most part, at the top of the DSA's. Ezekiel Ansah gained 10 spots, and Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd gained 6 each. Eric Fisher moved up three spots to take over the 2nd slot, and Dee Milliner gained four spots to #4. Both players had excellent workouts, and it has shown in their placements at the top of mock drafts everywhere.
Cornelius Carradine made the biggest jump of all, moving up into the top of the class to #27. His physical ability has teams intrigued, and between Carradine and Margus Hunt it will be fun to watch which one moves up the charts the fastest. Hunt looks to be the second coming of J.J. Watt-tall, athletic, with the ability to swat down passes and kicks with the greatest of ease. But he is a raw talent and teams see the potential. Hunt will be the biggest mover up the draft boards in the coming weeks.
Luke Joeckel remains at the top of the DSA's, and with Alex Smith on his way to Kansas City, he looks to stay there a while. If the Chiefs re-sign Brandon Albert, they may look to a pass rusher. But for now the #1 pick of the draft looks to be the player who has been rated at the top of everyone's draft boards since Day 1, and Joeckel is the pick. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0, the Post Combine Edition:
1) Luke Joeckel 2.10
2) Eric Fisher 5.50
3) Geno Smith 5.50
4) Dee Milliner 5.80
5) Dion Jordan 7.60
6) Sharrif Floyd 8.10
7) Ezekiel Ansah 9.30
8) Bjoern Werner 9.60
9) Barkevious Mingo 9.60
10) Chance Warmack 11.30
11) Lane Johnson 12.00
12) Sheldon Richardson 13.10
13) Cordarrelle Patterson 13.60
14) Star Lotulelei 15.00
15) Jarvis Jones 16.00
16) Xavier Rhodes 17.20
17) Kenny Vaccaro 17.20
18) Jonathon Cooper 17.90
19) Damontre Moore 18.20
20) Keenan Allen 22.20
21) Tavon Austin 25.50
22) Matt Barkley 26.00
23) Tyler Eifert 26.10
24) D.J. Fluker 27.10
25) Desmond Trufant 28.00
26) Datone Jones 28.80
27) Cornelius Carradine 29.40
28) DeAndre Hopkins 29.90
29) Alec Ogletree 30.00
30) Kawann Short 30.20
31) Manti Te'o 31.20
32) Jesse Williams 31.30
33) Johnathon Hankins 32.00
34) Eddie Lacy 32.40
35) Johnathon Cyprien 32.50
36) Alex Okafor 33.70
37) Jonathon Banks 34.00
38) Matt Elam 34.40
One strange anomoly of this DSA is the big score gap in the middle of the rankings. Normally, a difference of 3 points between spots is a big gap. But from Damontre Moore at #19 to Tavon Austin at #21, there is a difference of nearly 8 points. Players are finding their way to spots all over the mock drafts. The rumors have Matt Barkley going to Arizona at #7, and there are those who say he won't go in the first round at all. Barkley has made his way up to #22, but the fact he was not in six of the 10 mock drafts that make up this DSA shows that there is a great difference of opinion concerning the draft. We are going to see a lot more in the weeks to come. The question now is 'Who is going to separate themselves at their Pro Day workouts?' In the next seven weeks before the 2013 NFL Draft, we are going to find out.
Friday, February 22, 2013
DSA Player Rankings 2.0
You can call this version of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings the Pre-Draft Combine Edition. The Annual NFL Draft Combine started today, and for many players it is wonderful opportunity to impress coaches and front office personnel as to why they should be selected by their teams and how high in the draft they should go.
I was very interested to see who the movers are in the latest DSA Player Rankings. Those who are getting to love from the mock drafters and those who are seen as being on the outs. The three biggest advances were Sharrif Floyd, who moved up nine spots to #12, and Floyd can very easily move up even more. He is getting very high draft slots, and quite a few are projecting the defensive tackle to go as high as #3 overall to Oakland. The next two players who made the biggest gains were Datone Jones and Kawann Short, both of whom were not even listed on the first DSA Player Rankings of 2013, but a little research showed that they each improved eight positions. I can see both moving up along with Floyd, and I can see Jones maknig a move into the top half of the first round.
The biggest drops came from two different players for different reasons. Big Drop #2 came from Manti Te'o, as questions concerning his off field behavior in his catfishing episode and, most importantly, his on field performance against Alabama in the BCS Championship Game, have many wondering how effective he will be as a pro. But the biggest drop came for Damontre Moore. Even though Moore was listed as the #3 overall pick in half of the mock drafts I sampled, he was listed at #21 in one and not in the first round in another. Moore is still in the top 10, but a drop of six spots came about due to those low draft slots. I can see Moore making his way back up to the top 5 in no time.
But the players who are not getting any love at all are the quarterbacks. Geno Smith fell one spot to #3, and not as many people are convinced that Kansas City will take the signal caller at the top. But Smith was the only quarterback in the top 32. I'm still convinced there will be a run on quarterbacks in Round 1, but it looks more and more it will be at the bottom of the draft through trades and teams moving up.
So here is the 2013 DSA Player Rankings 2.0, the Pre-Draft Combine Edition:
1) Luke Joeckel 2.50
2) Bjoern Werner 3.70
3) Geno Smith 4.80
4) Star Lotuleili 6.50
5) Eric Fisher 7.50
6) Jarvis Jones 7.60
7) Barkevious Mingo 8.60
8) Dee Milliner 9.30
9) Damontre Moore 10.20
10) Chance Warmack 10.40
11) Dion Jordan 11.80
12) Sharrif Floyd 13.50
13) Lane Johnson 14.70
14) Cordarrelle Patterson 15.10
15) Kenny Vaccaro 16.50
16) Sheldon Richardson 17.60
17) Ezekiel Ansah 18.20
18) Keenan Allen 18.50
19) Jonathon Cooper 22.90
20) Xavier Rhodes 23.00
21) Johnathon Hankins 23.90
22) Alec Ogletree 24.20
23) Manti Te'o 25.60
24) Kevin Minter 26.00
25) Desmond Trufant 27.50
26) Tavon Austin 28.00
27) D.J. Fluker 29.50
28) Johnathon Banks 30.40
29) Datone Jones 30.70
30) Kawann Short 31.00
31) Zach Ertz 31.70
32) Tyler Eifert 33.30
The NFL Draft Combine concludes on Sunday. I'll put up my Post-Draft Combine Edition of the DSA Player Rankings right afterwards. It will be interesting to see who has made the biggest and best impressions on the mock drafters with their performance this weekend ni Indianapolis.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
2013 DSA Player Rankings 1.0
I missed writing my TMG DraftZone blog, and it's time to make up for lost time, so to speak. I've been compiling mock draft data, and the information shows what I mentioned in my last entry. There are a lot of good, solid players, and it shows with the sheer number of players that people see as first round worthy.
In the 10 mock drafts I used for the first installment of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, there were 55 players that were put in at least 1 mock draft. Somewhere along the line, there are going to be others that also get mentioned. Which means that the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft is going to be filled with players that have first round grades. What this year's draft lacks in star power it makes up for in volume.
That lack of star power is revealed with only 15 players being mentioned in all 10 mock drafts I researched. Outside of Luke Joeckel, I'd have to classify the rest as a Safe Bet to Succeed rather than a Sure Fire Lock to Star in the NFL. But for me the most interesting mock draft picks concern the quarterbacks. Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon were only mentioned in 3 mocks, and Matt Barkley in just 1. But all three were put in the Top 10 of those mock drafts. That may be the strangest thing I've seen in all the years I've been doing this. Teams that seem to need a quarterback lead people to say that they need a quarterback, then the teams start believing that they really need a quarterback and they reach when they should be patient. It's going to be a fun draft season. Without me rambling on much more (I'll save that for later in this blog), here is the first installment of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings:
1) Luke Joeckel 3.10
2) Geno Smith 3.30
3) Damontre Moore 5.10
4) Bjoern Werner 5.60
5) Star Lotulelei 6.90
6) Dee Milliner 7.60
7) Jarvis Jones 7.90
8) Eric Fisher 9.00
9) Barkevious Mingo 9.90
10) Dion Jordan 11.60
11) Chance Warmack 13.50
12) Sheldon Richardson 15.50
13) Ezekiel Ansah 16.30
14) Lane Johnson 17.90
15) Kenny Vaccaro 18.20
16) Keenan Allen 19.40
17) Cordarrelle Patterson 20.60
18) Manti Te'o 21.30
19) Jonathon Cooper 21.60
20) Alec Ogletree 22.50
21) Sharrif Floyd 23.30
22) Xavier Rhodes 23.60
23) Johnathon Hankins 24.10
24) D.J. Fluker 26.90
25) Kevin Minter 27.20
26) Johnathon Banks 28.00
27) John Jenkins 28.40
28) Tyler Wilson 28.90
29) Tyler Eifert 29.00
30) Mike Glennon 29.80
31) Zack Ertz 30.00
32) Jesse Williams 30.30
33) Tavon Austin 31.40
34) Sam Montgomery 31.60
35) Eric Reid 31.60
It is going to be a draft heavily weighted to the defense. Of the 35 players I have listed with a first round DSA Player Ranking average, 21 are on the defensive side of the ball. The lack of pretty boy offensive skill players is also very evident. Three wide receivers, two tight ends and three quarterbacks. No running backs. The Big Uglies up front are going to be the featured players in 2013. Can the Pretty Boy Quarterbacks make inroads at the top of the draft? I get the feeling that come draft weekend in April, the quarterbacks are all that we will be hearing about. When I post the next DSA Player Rankings, let's see who the movers are and how much. It's going to be a fun draft season in 2013.
Monday, April 2, 2012
2012 DSA Player Rankings 2.0
Last year, Da'Quan Bowers had a free fall down through the draft boards that was pretty much unprecedented. He was seen as a possible #1 Overall pick, and because of injury concerns he would up going #51 to Tampa Bay. This year, Ryan Tannehill is the Reverse Bowers. When I tabulated the first DSA Player Rankings of 2012, Tannehill was at #20. A little too raw for a high first round pick, but talented enough for a selection late in the round. Then a combination of draft room panic and an excellent pro day has seen his stock shooting up to the top. Tannehill has risen 12 places to #8, and he could conceivably go higher the closer we get to the 2012 NFL Draft. But for now here is the 2012 DSA Player Rankings 2.0:
1) Andrew Luck 1.00
2) Robert Griffin 2.00
3) Matt Kalil 3.00
4) Morris Claiborne 5.30
5) Trent Richardson 5.40
6) Justin Blackmon 5.80
7) Quinton Coples 9.30
8) Ryan Tannehill 9.70
9) Riley Reiff 10.60
10) Melvin Ingram 10.90
11) Dontari Poe 11.20
12) David Decastro 12.60
13) Michael Floyd 14.30
14) Luke Kuechly 14.70
15) Jonathon Martin 17.70
16) Michael Brockers 17.90
17) Dre Kirkpatrick 18.90
18) Fletcher Cox 19.20
19) Courtney Upshaw 19.50
20) Cordy Glenn 21.60
21) Whitney Mercilus 22.00
22) Kendall Wright 22.30
23) Stephon Gilmore 22.40
24) Janoris Jenkins 23.00
25) Mark Barron 23.40
26) Mike Adams 26.20
27) Stephen Hill 27.40
28) Nick Perry 27.60
29) Devon Still 28.80
30) Dont'a Hightower 28.80
31) Jerel Worthy 30.80
32) Peter Konz 30.90
The player whose draft stock is going to be affected the most by the rise of Ryan Tannehill is going to be Trent Richardson. If Cleveland passes on him and selects Tannehill, and if Tampa Bay goes defense with Morris Claiborne, Richardson could fall all the way to Cincinnati at #17. But one thing I can say is that I'd hate to face a power running back with a chip on his shoulder simply because they didn't pick him in the draft. Richardson could very easily be that player, and the Bengals would be the very happy recipients of Cleveland going quarterback instead of running back. The 2012 NFL Draft is in 3 1/2 weeks. We shall see.
1) Andrew Luck 1.00
2) Robert Griffin 2.00
3) Matt Kalil 3.00
4) Morris Claiborne 5.30
5) Trent Richardson 5.40
6) Justin Blackmon 5.80
7) Quinton Coples 9.30
8) Ryan Tannehill 9.70
9) Riley Reiff 10.60
10) Melvin Ingram 10.90
11) Dontari Poe 11.20
12) David Decastro 12.60
13) Michael Floyd 14.30
14) Luke Kuechly 14.70
15) Jonathon Martin 17.70
16) Michael Brockers 17.90
17) Dre Kirkpatrick 18.90
18) Fletcher Cox 19.20
19) Courtney Upshaw 19.50
20) Cordy Glenn 21.60
21) Whitney Mercilus 22.00
22) Kendall Wright 22.30
23) Stephon Gilmore 22.40
24) Janoris Jenkins 23.00
25) Mark Barron 23.40
26) Mike Adams 26.20
27) Stephen Hill 27.40
28) Nick Perry 27.60
29) Devon Still 28.80
30) Dont'a Hightower 28.80
31) Jerel Worthy 30.80
32) Peter Konz 30.90
The player whose draft stock is going to be affected the most by the rise of Ryan Tannehill is going to be Trent Richardson. If Cleveland passes on him and selects Tannehill, and if Tampa Bay goes defense with Morris Claiborne, Richardson could fall all the way to Cincinnati at #17. But one thing I can say is that I'd hate to face a power running back with a chip on his shoulder simply because they didn't pick him in the draft. Richardson could very easily be that player, and the Bengals would be the very happy recipients of Cleveland going quarterback instead of running back. The 2012 NFL Draft is in 3 1/2 weeks. We shall see.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
2012 DSA Player Rankings 1.0
After working way too much at my bill paying job, it is finally time to put forth the first DSA Player Rankings for the 2012 NFL Draft. After collecting data from mock drafts of all kinds, there are a number of things that are as certain as you are going to see this early in any draft year:
Andrew Luck is going #1 Overall to the Indianapolis Colts. With the announcement today of Peyton Manning and the Colts parting ways, there is no doubt now that Luck will be the first player taken in the draft.
Robert Griffin III is going #2 Overall, but to whom no one is certain yet. The St. Louis Rams are openly shopping the pick, and who makes the deal will be influenced by who signs the newly free agented Manning. I see the Cleveland Browns trading up to take Griffin, not just because they want the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback but also because the Rams are targeting Justin Blackmon, the dynamic playmaking wide receiver, and going any further down the draft board than 4th puts Tampa Bay into play in possibly selecting Blackmon. The Rams had problems on the offensive line, but that was mostly due to injuries. With a healthy Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith to provide time for Sam Bradford, St. Louis sees Blackmon as this years' A.J. Green, and after seeing how well Green and Andy Dalton worked together in Cincinnati they can only hope for similar results in St. Louis.
Matt Kalil is going to Minnesota with the #3 Overall pick. Christian Ponder showed promise at the end of the 2011 season for the Vikings, and putting Kalil at left tackle will only make him better. Plus, with Adrian Peterson coming back from knee surgery, Minnesota will need the anchor on the left side to protect their young quarterback and to open holes for their all-pro running back.
There are players who are already widely ranging up and down the mock draft boards. Trent Richardson is as high as #4 and as low as #17. Riley Reiff can be found up at #6 and down at #29. Janoris Jenkins is listed at #9 in one mock draft and not even in the first round in two others. While the top of the draft is what I call an Ivory Soap Lock (99 44/100%), the rest of the first round looks to be as unpredictable as ever. So here is the 2012 DSA Player Rankings 1.0:
1) Andrew Luck 1.0
2) Robert Griffin III 2.0
3) Matt Kalil 3.0
4) Justin Blackmon 4.60
5) Morris Claiborne 5.10
6) Quinton Coples 8.00
7) Melvin Ingram 9.60
8) Trent Richardson 10.00
9) Riley Reiff 11.20
10) Courtney Upshaw 13.80
11) Luke Kuechly 14.10
12) David DeCastro 14.80
13) Dre Kirkpatrick 15.60
14) Jonathon Martin 16.00
15) Dontari Poe 16.30
16) Michael Floyd 16.40
17) Michael Brockers 17.90
18) Cordy Glenn 19.10
19) Nick Perry 20.00
20) Ryan Tannehill 20.40
21) Janoris Jenkins 21.10
22) Whitney Mercilus 21.40
23) Fletcher Cox 23.20
24) Devon Still 23.30
25) Mark Barron 24.70
26) Mike Adams 25.90
27) Kendall Wright 26.10
28) Peter Konz 29.50
29) Dont'a Hightower 30.20
30) Jerel Worthy 30.30
31) Zach Brown 30.30
32) Coby Fleener 31.10
33) Stephen Gilmore 31.80
34) Andre Branch 32.70
35) Stephen Hill 34.40
In the next few days, it will be interesting to see what happens to the draft stock of Ryan Tannehill. Where Peyton Manning lands and who trades for the second pick to take Robert Griffin III will determine where Tannehill might land. I see the Browns moving up to take Griffin, and Manning going to a team with a better chance to win now. In the top 10, that would be Miami more than any other team, and I'm starting to get that gut feeling that the team he will land at in San Francisco. Great defense, weapons on offense and one of the best offensive lines in the league. I currently have Tannehill going #6 to Washington, and if everything falls into place the Redskins may be his new home simply because they could not get the other quarterbacks they wanted.
The 2012 NFL Draft season is starting to warm up. I for one am looking forward to it.
Andrew Luck is going #1 Overall to the Indianapolis Colts. With the announcement today of Peyton Manning and the Colts parting ways, there is no doubt now that Luck will be the first player taken in the draft.
Robert Griffin III is going #2 Overall, but to whom no one is certain yet. The St. Louis Rams are openly shopping the pick, and who makes the deal will be influenced by who signs the newly free agented Manning. I see the Cleveland Browns trading up to take Griffin, not just because they want the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback but also because the Rams are targeting Justin Blackmon, the dynamic playmaking wide receiver, and going any further down the draft board than 4th puts Tampa Bay into play in possibly selecting Blackmon. The Rams had problems on the offensive line, but that was mostly due to injuries. With a healthy Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith to provide time for Sam Bradford, St. Louis sees Blackmon as this years' A.J. Green, and after seeing how well Green and Andy Dalton worked together in Cincinnati they can only hope for similar results in St. Louis.
Matt Kalil is going to Minnesota with the #3 Overall pick. Christian Ponder showed promise at the end of the 2011 season for the Vikings, and putting Kalil at left tackle will only make him better. Plus, with Adrian Peterson coming back from knee surgery, Minnesota will need the anchor on the left side to protect their young quarterback and to open holes for their all-pro running back.
There are players who are already widely ranging up and down the mock draft boards. Trent Richardson is as high as #4 and as low as #17. Riley Reiff can be found up at #6 and down at #29. Janoris Jenkins is listed at #9 in one mock draft and not even in the first round in two others. While the top of the draft is what I call an Ivory Soap Lock (99 44/100%), the rest of the first round looks to be as unpredictable as ever. So here is the 2012 DSA Player Rankings 1.0:
1) Andrew Luck 1.0
2) Robert Griffin III 2.0
3) Matt Kalil 3.0
4) Justin Blackmon 4.60
5) Morris Claiborne 5.10
6) Quinton Coples 8.00
7) Melvin Ingram 9.60
8) Trent Richardson 10.00
9) Riley Reiff 11.20
10) Courtney Upshaw 13.80
11) Luke Kuechly 14.10
12) David DeCastro 14.80
13) Dre Kirkpatrick 15.60
14) Jonathon Martin 16.00
15) Dontari Poe 16.30
16) Michael Floyd 16.40
17) Michael Brockers 17.90
18) Cordy Glenn 19.10
19) Nick Perry 20.00
20) Ryan Tannehill 20.40
21) Janoris Jenkins 21.10
22) Whitney Mercilus 21.40
23) Fletcher Cox 23.20
24) Devon Still 23.30
25) Mark Barron 24.70
26) Mike Adams 25.90
27) Kendall Wright 26.10
28) Peter Konz 29.50
29) Dont'a Hightower 30.20
30) Jerel Worthy 30.30
31) Zach Brown 30.30
32) Coby Fleener 31.10
33) Stephen Gilmore 31.80
34) Andre Branch 32.70
35) Stephen Hill 34.40
In the next few days, it will be interesting to see what happens to the draft stock of Ryan Tannehill. Where Peyton Manning lands and who trades for the second pick to take Robert Griffin III will determine where Tannehill might land. I see the Browns moving up to take Griffin, and Manning going to a team with a better chance to win now. In the top 10, that would be Miami more than any other team, and I'm starting to get that gut feeling that the team he will land at in San Francisco. Great defense, weapons on offense and one of the best offensive lines in the league. I currently have Tannehill going #6 to Washington, and if everything falls into place the Redskins may be his new home simply because they could not get the other quarterbacks they wanted.
The 2012 NFL Draft season is starting to warm up. I for one am looking forward to it.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
DSA Rankings 2.0
After the last round of pre-scouting combine Mock Drafts, I have put together the second Draft Slot Average Player Rankings for the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. The information was accumulated from Mock Drafts leading up to the NFL Scouting Combine, and does not reflect the workouts from this past week in Indianapolis. Considering the outstanding performances of Julio Jones, Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara and others, as well as the less than stellar workouts of Cam Newton, Cameron Heyward, Torrey Smith, and the evasive answers from Ryan Mallett (whose on-field workouts though may have been the best of any quarterback), Mock Drafts everywhere are sure to have a major shakeup. But here are the DSA Player Rankings 2.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 2.0 3-1-11
Da'Quan Bowers 1.70
Nick Fairley 3.50
A.J. Green 4.20
Patrick Peterson 4.30
Von Miller 5.60
Cam Newton 5.80
Marcel Dareus 6.00
Blaine Gabbert 7.00
Prince Amukamara 8.30
Robert Quinn 12.70
J.J, Watt 12.90
Julio Jones 14.00
Ryan Kerrigan 16.50
Cameron Jordan 17.10
Nate Solder 17.20
Mark Ingram 18.60
Adrian Clayborn 19.10
Tyron Smith 20.30
Aldon Smith 20.30
Akeem Ayers 20.30
Anthony Castanzo 21.90
Justin Houston 23.30
Gabe Carimi 24.40
Mike Pouncey 24.50
Jake Locker 25.10
Corey Liuget 25.10
Jimmy Smith 25.60
Cameron Heyward 27.10
Mikel Leshoure 30.50
Brandon Harris 30.80
Ryan Mallett 32.80
Jonathon Baldwin 32.90
Phil Taylor 34.00
Derek Sherrod 34.20
Stephen Paea 34.80
Allen Bailey 34.90
Titus Young 35.20
Torrey Smith 35.40
Kyle Rudolph 35.40
Muhammad Wilkerson 35.70
Benjamin Ijalana 36.70
Aaron Williams 37.20
Danny Watkins 37.80
Stefan Wisniewski 39.80
The biggest gainers were Mikel Leshoure and J.J. Watt, who moved up 9 and 8 places, respectively. The players who fell the most were Brandon Harris and Ryan Mallett, who dropped 8 spots each. Da'Quan Bowers took over the top spot from Nick Fairley, who had been a unanimous choice for the #1 overall selection. But after the Scouting Combine, there is sure to be an even bigger shuffling of players up and down the DSA Player Ranking boards. We shall see.
DSA Rankings 2.0 3-1-11
Da'Quan Bowers 1.70
Nick Fairley 3.50
A.J. Green 4.20
Patrick Peterson 4.30
Von Miller 5.60
Cam Newton 5.80
Marcel Dareus 6.00
Blaine Gabbert 7.00
Prince Amukamara 8.30
Robert Quinn 12.70
J.J, Watt 12.90
Julio Jones 14.00
Ryan Kerrigan 16.50
Cameron Jordan 17.10
Nate Solder 17.20
Mark Ingram 18.60
Adrian Clayborn 19.10
Tyron Smith 20.30
Aldon Smith 20.30
Akeem Ayers 20.30
Anthony Castanzo 21.90
Justin Houston 23.30
Gabe Carimi 24.40
Mike Pouncey 24.50
Jake Locker 25.10
Corey Liuget 25.10
Jimmy Smith 25.60
Cameron Heyward 27.10
Mikel Leshoure 30.50
Brandon Harris 30.80
Ryan Mallett 32.80
Jonathon Baldwin 32.90
Phil Taylor 34.00
Derek Sherrod 34.20
Stephen Paea 34.80
Allen Bailey 34.90
Titus Young 35.20
Torrey Smith 35.40
Kyle Rudolph 35.40
Muhammad Wilkerson 35.70
Benjamin Ijalana 36.70
Aaron Williams 37.20
Danny Watkins 37.80
Stefan Wisniewski 39.80
The biggest gainers were Mikel Leshoure and J.J. Watt, who moved up 9 and 8 places, respectively. The players who fell the most were Brandon Harris and Ryan Mallett, who dropped 8 spots each. Da'Quan Bowers took over the top spot from Nick Fairley, who had been a unanimous choice for the #1 overall selection. But after the Scouting Combine, there is sure to be an even bigger shuffling of players up and down the DSA Player Ranking boards. We shall see.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
2011 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
I have put together my first Mock Draft for the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. The first DSA Player Rankings had Nick Fairley as the unanimous #1 Overall Selection. The data gathered for the second round of DSA's has Fairley sharing time at the top with Da'Quan Bowers. I have already made a case for Bowers to go first, and that is where I have him at this time. So here is the first TMG DraftZone Mock Draft for 2011:
1) Carolina Da'Quan Bowers DE
2) Denver Patrick Peterson CB
3) Buffalo Cam Newton QB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Nick Fairley DT
6) Cleveland Prince Amukamara CB
7) San Francisco Blaine Gabbert QB
8) Tennessee Marcell Dareus DT
9) Dallas Von Miller LB
10) Washington Jake Locker QB
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota J.J. Watt DE
13) Detroit Nate Solder OT
14) St. Louis Julio Jones WR
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England Cameron Heyward DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE
21) Kansas City Justin Houston LB
22) Indianapolis Mike Pouncey OG
23) Philadelphia Akeem Ayers LB
24) New Orleans Tyron Smith OT
25) Seattle Jimmy Smith CB
26) Baltimore Brandon Harris CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Mikel Leshoure RB
29) Chicago Jonathon Baldwin WR
30) NY Jets Cameron Jordan DE
31) Pittsburgh Phil Taylor DT
32) Green Bay Gabe Carimi OT
Any mock draft will place players based on two main criteria: team need and gut instinct. I can see Buffalo taking Cam Newton at #3, and a lot of other draftniks are going in that direction. An exceptional workout at the NFL Scouting Combine might very well move him up to the top of the draft. I also think that Jake Locker will be moving up as well after the combine, and with the premium placed on quarterbacks, I see Washington taking him at #10.
One player that may seem to be a stretch is Kyle Rudolph at #27 to Atlanta. But as good as Tony Gonzalez has been, he won't play forever. Rudolph would make an exceptional target for Matt Ryan, and would eventually take over for the future Hall of Famer Gonzalez. Another player who for now might be a reach is Nate Solder at #13 to Detroit. But the Lions would not need to put him in the starting lineup right away, and with more polishing and seasoning he would be the protector for Matthew Stafford's blind side for years. The Lions need to protect their most valuable asset, and Solder could be the long term answer.
One player that got lost in the shuffle of a deep position is Cameron Jordan. The defensive end position is loaded, and I have 8 players at that position going in the first round. You could easily shuffle those players around (with the possible exception of Bowers), and you won't get an argument from anyone. Jordan could easily go in the top 15, and if he does fall down into the 20's, the team that is able to select him will be one that the post-draft experts will say had one of the best drafts of 2011.
The NFL Scouting Combine is underway, and this weekend will go a long way to determining which players will be moving up or down the boards of mock drafters everywhere. To what extent we shall see.
1) Carolina Da'Quan Bowers DE
2) Denver Patrick Peterson CB
3) Buffalo Cam Newton QB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Nick Fairley DT
6) Cleveland Prince Amukamara CB
7) San Francisco Blaine Gabbert QB
8) Tennessee Marcell Dareus DT
9) Dallas Von Miller LB
10) Washington Jake Locker QB
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota J.J. Watt DE
13) Detroit Nate Solder OT
14) St. Louis Julio Jones WR
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England Cameron Heyward DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE
21) Kansas City Justin Houston LB
22) Indianapolis Mike Pouncey OG
23) Philadelphia Akeem Ayers LB
24) New Orleans Tyron Smith OT
25) Seattle Jimmy Smith CB
26) Baltimore Brandon Harris CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Mikel Leshoure RB
29) Chicago Jonathon Baldwin WR
30) NY Jets Cameron Jordan DE
31) Pittsburgh Phil Taylor DT
32) Green Bay Gabe Carimi OT
Any mock draft will place players based on two main criteria: team need and gut instinct. I can see Buffalo taking Cam Newton at #3, and a lot of other draftniks are going in that direction. An exceptional workout at the NFL Scouting Combine might very well move him up to the top of the draft. I also think that Jake Locker will be moving up as well after the combine, and with the premium placed on quarterbacks, I see Washington taking him at #10.
One player that may seem to be a stretch is Kyle Rudolph at #27 to Atlanta. But as good as Tony Gonzalez has been, he won't play forever. Rudolph would make an exceptional target for Matt Ryan, and would eventually take over for the future Hall of Famer Gonzalez. Another player who for now might be a reach is Nate Solder at #13 to Detroit. But the Lions would not need to put him in the starting lineup right away, and with more polishing and seasoning he would be the protector for Matthew Stafford's blind side for years. The Lions need to protect their most valuable asset, and Solder could be the long term answer.
One player that got lost in the shuffle of a deep position is Cameron Jordan. The defensive end position is loaded, and I have 8 players at that position going in the first round. You could easily shuffle those players around (with the possible exception of Bowers), and you won't get an argument from anyone. Jordan could easily go in the top 15, and if he does fall down into the 20's, the team that is able to select him will be one that the post-draft experts will say had one of the best drafts of 2011.
The NFL Scouting Combine is underway, and this weekend will go a long way to determining which players will be moving up or down the boards of mock drafters everywhere. To what extent we shall see.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Early Returns
The first wave of Post-Super Bowl 2011 NFL Mock Drafts are starting to roll in, and here are some early observations from the Mock Draft information I have gathered so far:
Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.
Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.
Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.
Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.
There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.
Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.
There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.
I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.
Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.
Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.
Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.
Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.
There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.
Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.
There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.
I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Mock Drafts starting to roll
Mock Drafts for the 2011 NFL Draft have been coming out for a while now. Even back in November and December. But I've always been one to wait. Wait for the underclassmen to declare and wait for the Super Bowl so that the draft order is finalized. But today was the day that mock drafts became somewhat official, as Mel Kiper, Jr on ESPN and Charles Davis on NFL Network put out their first mock drafts.
My exclusive Draft Slot Average is based on player draft positions accumulated from many mock drafts, but that information will not be collected until after the Super Bowl. But it is interesting to see just how varied the early mocks are at this time.
The three most popular 1st Overall picks are A.J. Green, Nick Fairley, and Da'Quan Bowers. But I've seen Blaine Gabbert going first overall as well. Ryan Mallett going anywhere from 5th all the way down to 27th. Robert Quinn at 3rd overall down to the 25th pick. Stephen Paea from 8th to not even in the first round. The variations from one mock draft to another is unbelieveable. Which goes to show just how deep the draft is again this year.
In 2010, Sam Bradford was the solid choice to go #1 after his workout, and he moved into the top spot of my DSA player rankings with Ndamukong Suh the choice for second overall and Gerald McCoy third off the board. These choices held true, but in 2011 there looks to be such wide divisions in who will go where in the top 10 that I can see my DSA's going all over the board. So let the mock draft season begin, and I'll have my own posted the week after the Super Bowl and my first DSA rankings soon thereafter.
My exclusive Draft Slot Average is based on player draft positions accumulated from many mock drafts, but that information will not be collected until after the Super Bowl. But it is interesting to see just how varied the early mocks are at this time.
The three most popular 1st Overall picks are A.J. Green, Nick Fairley, and Da'Quan Bowers. But I've seen Blaine Gabbert going first overall as well. Ryan Mallett going anywhere from 5th all the way down to 27th. Robert Quinn at 3rd overall down to the 25th pick. Stephen Paea from 8th to not even in the first round. The variations from one mock draft to another is unbelieveable. Which goes to show just how deep the draft is again this year.
In 2010, Sam Bradford was the solid choice to go #1 after his workout, and he moved into the top spot of my DSA player rankings with Ndamukong Suh the choice for second overall and Gerald McCoy third off the board. These choices held true, but in 2011 there looks to be such wide divisions in who will go where in the top 10 that I can see my DSA's going all over the board. So let the mock draft season begin, and I'll have my own posted the week after the Super Bowl and my first DSA rankings soon thereafter.
Monday, April 19, 2010
DSA Player Rankings 6.0
After researching and researching mock drafts from just about any source I could find, I have accumulated 63 first round mock drafts and here are the final Draft Slot Average (DSA) Player Rankings:
1) Sam Bradford 1.65
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.19
3) Gerald McCoy 3.17
4) Russell Okung 3.86
5) Eric Berry 5.81
6) Bryan Bulaga 8.44
7) Trent Williams 9.76
8) Jimmy Clausen 10.06
9) Joe Haden 11.63
10) Rolando McClain 12.41
11) C.J. Spiller 12.94
12) Derrick Morgan 13.65
13) Dez Bryant 14.40
14) Dan Williams 15.19
15) Earl Thomas 16.11
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 16.40
17) Anthony Davis 17.98
18) Bruce Campbell 18.67
19) Brandon Graham 20.51
20) Mike Iupati 21.44
21) Sergio Kindle 22.24
22) Kyle Wilson 23.05
23) Taylor Mays 23.73
24) Jermaine Gresham 25.89
25) Maurkice Pouncey 26.05
26) Sean Weatherspoon 26.79
27) Jaerd Odrick 27.76
28) Ryan Mathews 28.33
29) Everson Griffen 28.54
30) Brian Price 29.84
31) Carlos Dunlap 30.17
32) Charles Brown 30.32
Jimmy Clausen had the biggest fall in the top of the DSA Rankings, going from 6th to 8th. Bryan Bulaga and Trent Williams both moved up a slot within the top ten. Ryan Mathews was the biggest gainer, going from 31st to 28th. Jared Odrick moved up two slots, going to 27th. Carlos Dunlap was the biggest loser in the final rankings, falling three spots to #31. I can't wait to see just how well the so-called experts are on average. As I have stated previously, I will be posting the final DSA's on the NFL.com Predict the Pick Challenge. I'll be joining the 2010 NFL Mock Draft Group, along with my own Mock Draft picks (listed as Sycamore88) If you have an entry on NFL.com good luck to you. Three days until the draft. I can't wait.
1) Sam Bradford 1.65
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.19
3) Gerald McCoy 3.17
4) Russell Okung 3.86
5) Eric Berry 5.81
6) Bryan Bulaga 8.44
7) Trent Williams 9.76
8) Jimmy Clausen 10.06
9) Joe Haden 11.63
10) Rolando McClain 12.41
11) C.J. Spiller 12.94
12) Derrick Morgan 13.65
13) Dez Bryant 14.40
14) Dan Williams 15.19
15) Earl Thomas 16.11
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 16.40
17) Anthony Davis 17.98
18) Bruce Campbell 18.67
19) Brandon Graham 20.51
20) Mike Iupati 21.44
21) Sergio Kindle 22.24
22) Kyle Wilson 23.05
23) Taylor Mays 23.73
24) Jermaine Gresham 25.89
25) Maurkice Pouncey 26.05
26) Sean Weatherspoon 26.79
27) Jaerd Odrick 27.76
28) Ryan Mathews 28.33
29) Everson Griffen 28.54
30) Brian Price 29.84
31) Carlos Dunlap 30.17
32) Charles Brown 30.32
Jimmy Clausen had the biggest fall in the top of the DSA Rankings, going from 6th to 8th. Bryan Bulaga and Trent Williams both moved up a slot within the top ten. Ryan Mathews was the biggest gainer, going from 31st to 28th. Jared Odrick moved up two slots, going to 27th. Carlos Dunlap was the biggest loser in the final rankings, falling three spots to #31. I can't wait to see just how well the so-called experts are on average. As I have stated previously, I will be posting the final DSA's on the NFL.com Predict the Pick Challenge. I'll be joining the 2010 NFL Mock Draft Group, along with my own Mock Draft picks (listed as Sycamore88) If you have an entry on NFL.com good luck to you. Three days until the draft. I can't wait.
Monday, April 12, 2010
DSA Player Rankings 5.0
The DSA Player Rankings 5.0 are as solid at the top as you are going to get. The first 15 positions did not change. Byran Bulaga made the biggest advance, as he gained aver a half point on Jimmy Clausen. Clausen has been steadily falling ever since the Redskins traded for Donovan McNabb. At the lower half of the rankings the biggest movers have been Jared Odrick, Maurkice Pouncey and Charles Brown. All three players moved up two positions since the previous rankings, which shows how much teams are possibly looking for interior lineman to strengthen their offensive and defensive lines. The DSA Player Rankings 5.0 are as follows:
1) Sam Bradford 1.88
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.23
3) Gerald McCoy 3.09
4) Russell Okung 3.88
5) Eric Berry 5.65
6) Jimmy Clausen 8.40
7) Bryan Bulaga 8.88
8) Trent Williams 10.63
9) Joe Haden 11.42
10) Rolando McClain 12.28
11) Derrick Morgan 13.05
12) C.J. Spiller 13.33
13) Dez Bryant 13.95
14) Dan Williams 16.37
15) Anthony Davis 16.72
16) Earl Thomas 17.21
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.49
18) Bruce Campbell 18.93
19) Brandon Graham 21.37
20) Sergio Kindle 21.60
21) Mike Iupati 21.81
22) Kyle Wilson 22.86
23) Taylor Mays 22.91
24) Maurkice Pouncey 26.40
25) Jermaine Gresham 26.53
26) Sean Weatherspoon 27.47
27) Everson Griffen 28.14
28) Carlos Dunlap 28.23
29) Jared Odrick 28.49
30) Brian Price 28.72
31) Ryan Mathews 29.05
32) Charles Brown 30.67
33) Jerry Hughes 30.72
34) Demaryius Thomas 30.74
I have removed four players from the rankings, and next week I will post the final DSA Player Rankings, which will have only the top 32. I will put that list, as well as my mock draft, on NFL.com and their Predict The Pick Challenge. My mock draft is already posted. I still don't see many changes, if any, but with all the trade activity you never know.
1) Sam Bradford 1.88
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.23
3) Gerald McCoy 3.09
4) Russell Okung 3.88
5) Eric Berry 5.65
6) Jimmy Clausen 8.40
7) Bryan Bulaga 8.88
8) Trent Williams 10.63
9) Joe Haden 11.42
10) Rolando McClain 12.28
11) Derrick Morgan 13.05
12) C.J. Spiller 13.33
13) Dez Bryant 13.95
14) Dan Williams 16.37
15) Anthony Davis 16.72
16) Earl Thomas 17.21
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.49
18) Bruce Campbell 18.93
19) Brandon Graham 21.37
20) Sergio Kindle 21.60
21) Mike Iupati 21.81
22) Kyle Wilson 22.86
23) Taylor Mays 22.91
24) Maurkice Pouncey 26.40
25) Jermaine Gresham 26.53
26) Sean Weatherspoon 27.47
27) Everson Griffen 28.14
28) Carlos Dunlap 28.23
29) Jared Odrick 28.49
30) Brian Price 28.72
31) Ryan Mathews 29.05
32) Charles Brown 30.67
33) Jerry Hughes 30.72
34) Demaryius Thomas 30.74
I have removed four players from the rankings, and next week I will post the final DSA Player Rankings, which will have only the top 32. I will put that list, as well as my mock draft, on NFL.com and their Predict The Pick Challenge. My mock draft is already posted. I still don't see many changes, if any, but with all the trade activity you never know.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
DSA Player Rankings 3.0
In the latest DSA Player Rankings, the value of offensive lineman is becoming more pronounced. Bryan Bulaga has moved up past Joe Haden to the seventh slot, and Trent Williams moves up two slots to the #9 position. A number of drafts placing Bruce Campbell eighth overall to Oakland has him gaining a spot, while Russell Okung and Anthony Davis hold onto their positions. That is 5 of the top 18 players in the draft being offensive tackles. It is going to pay to be one of the big guys up front in the 2010 NFL Draft. Here are the DSA Player Rankings, Version 3.0:
1) Ndamukong Suh 1.90
2) Sam Bradford 2.27
3) Gerald McCoy 2.90
4) Russell Okung 4.2
5) Eric Berry 5.63
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.27
7) Bryan Bulaga 10.17
8) Joe Haden 10.73
9) Trent Williams 11.57
10) Rolando McClain 12.23
11) Derrick Morgan 12.77
12) Dez Bryant 13.47
13) C.J. Spiller 14.03
14) Anthony Davis 15.7
15) Dan Williams 16.57
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.07
17) Earl Thomas 17.90
18) Bruce Campbell 18.17
19) Sergio Kindle 21.83
20) T-Brandon Graham 22.20
20) T-Taylor Mays 22.20
22) Mike Iupati 22.87
23) Kyle Wilson 23.93
24) Carlos Dunlap 26.73
25) Jermaine Gresham 27.03
26) Brian Price 27.27
27) Everson Griffen 27.40
28) Maurkice Pouncey 27.63
29) Sean Weatherspoon 28.63
30) Ryan Mathews 29.30
31) Jerry Hughes 29.60
32) Jared Odrick 29.70
33) Golden Tate 30.00
34) Charles Brown 30.20
35) Demaryius Thomas 31.00
36) Arrelious Benn 32.27
37) Patrick Robinson 32.63
38) Devin McCourtey 33.17
After his Pro Day Workout, Sam Bradford is going to be the consensus 1st Overall selection. He still ranks #2 Behind Ndamukong Suh because early drafts had him going fourth or lower, while Suh has been consistently in the top 2 or 3. The next DSA Player Rankings will most likely have Bradford at the top. It will be interesting to see if there will be any more big moves up or down the board.
1) Ndamukong Suh 1.90
2) Sam Bradford 2.27
3) Gerald McCoy 2.90
4) Russell Okung 4.2
5) Eric Berry 5.63
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.27
7) Bryan Bulaga 10.17
8) Joe Haden 10.73
9) Trent Williams 11.57
10) Rolando McClain 12.23
11) Derrick Morgan 12.77
12) Dez Bryant 13.47
13) C.J. Spiller 14.03
14) Anthony Davis 15.7
15) Dan Williams 16.57
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.07
17) Earl Thomas 17.90
18) Bruce Campbell 18.17
19) Sergio Kindle 21.83
20) T-Brandon Graham 22.20
20) T-Taylor Mays 22.20
22) Mike Iupati 22.87
23) Kyle Wilson 23.93
24) Carlos Dunlap 26.73
25) Jermaine Gresham 27.03
26) Brian Price 27.27
27) Everson Griffen 27.40
28) Maurkice Pouncey 27.63
29) Sean Weatherspoon 28.63
30) Ryan Mathews 29.30
31) Jerry Hughes 29.60
32) Jared Odrick 29.70
33) Golden Tate 30.00
34) Charles Brown 30.20
35) Demaryius Thomas 31.00
36) Arrelious Benn 32.27
37) Patrick Robinson 32.63
38) Devin McCourtey 33.17
After his Pro Day Workout, Sam Bradford is going to be the consensus 1st Overall selection. He still ranks #2 Behind Ndamukong Suh because early drafts had him going fourth or lower, while Suh has been consistently in the top 2 or 3. The next DSA Player Rankings will most likely have Bradford at the top. It will be interesting to see if there will be any more big moves up or down the board.
Friday, March 26, 2010
DSA Player Rankings 2.0
The latest DSA Player Rankings are here, and it goes to show that some players pick up momentum and others fall out of favor. But the fallen are lead by the two players that seem to be dropping the fastest. Dez Bryant fell fro 8th to 13th, and Bruce Campbell went from 15th to 19th. The top of the DSA Rankings stayed the same for the first seven positions, and most mock drafts have those players going to the teams in the matching slots with the exception of Jimmy Clausen, who looks to be headed to Buffalo with the 9th over pick. But enough drafts have Clausen going to Washington at #4 to push his average higher. So here is the latest DSA Player Rankings:
1) Ndamukong Suh 1.77
2) Sam Bradford 2.73
3) Gerald McCoy 2.77
4) Russell Okung 4.14
5) Eric Berry 5.36
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.23
7) Joe Haden 10.32
8) Bryan Bulaga 10.77
9) Rolando McClain 12.00
10) Derrick Morgan 12.41
11) Trent Williams 12.68
12) C.J. Spiller 13.77
13) Dez Bryant 13.82
14) Anthony Davis 14.86
15) Dan Williams 16.82
16) Earl Thomas 17.32
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 18.41
18) Sergio Kindle 19.86
19) Bruce Campbell 20.77
20) Taylor Mays 21.95
21) Brandon Graham 22.95
22) Mike Iupati 23.18
23) Kyle Wilson 24.45
24) Brian Price 26.41
25) Carlos Dunlap 26.45
26) Everson Griffen 26.95
27) Jermaine Gresham 27.77
28) Maurkice Pouncey 27.86
29) Sean Weatherspoon 28.55
30) Jerry Hughes 28.95
31) Jared Odrick 29.32
32) Ryan Mathews 29.45
33) Golden Tate 29.64
34) Demaryius Thomas 29.82
35) Charles Brown 30.82
36) Arrelious Benn 31.91
37) Patrick Robinson 32.00
38) Devin McCourtey 33.18
Demayrius Thomas has worked onto the list as many see him moving up their boards, with Baltimore eyeing him at #25 to pair up with Anquan Boldin. One thing is certain though-there is a lot of depth in the draft at just about every position. Teams drafting late in the first round are going to get players who some people see as middle first rounders, and players looked at as late round picks are going to slide to the second round through no fault of their own. If a team is looking to draft the best player available they might not have enough time on the clock in Round 1 to make a decision.
1) Ndamukong Suh 1.77
2) Sam Bradford 2.73
3) Gerald McCoy 2.77
4) Russell Okung 4.14
5) Eric Berry 5.36
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.23
7) Joe Haden 10.32
8) Bryan Bulaga 10.77
9) Rolando McClain 12.00
10) Derrick Morgan 12.41
11) Trent Williams 12.68
12) C.J. Spiller 13.77
13) Dez Bryant 13.82
14) Anthony Davis 14.86
15) Dan Williams 16.82
16) Earl Thomas 17.32
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 18.41
18) Sergio Kindle 19.86
19) Bruce Campbell 20.77
20) Taylor Mays 21.95
21) Brandon Graham 22.95
22) Mike Iupati 23.18
23) Kyle Wilson 24.45
24) Brian Price 26.41
25) Carlos Dunlap 26.45
26) Everson Griffen 26.95
27) Jermaine Gresham 27.77
28) Maurkice Pouncey 27.86
29) Sean Weatherspoon 28.55
30) Jerry Hughes 28.95
31) Jared Odrick 29.32
32) Ryan Mathews 29.45
33) Golden Tate 29.64
34) Demaryius Thomas 29.82
35) Charles Brown 30.82
36) Arrelious Benn 31.91
37) Patrick Robinson 32.00
38) Devin McCourtey 33.18
Demayrius Thomas has worked onto the list as many see him moving up their boards, with Baltimore eyeing him at #25 to pair up with Anquan Boldin. One thing is certain though-there is a lot of depth in the draft at just about every position. Teams drafting late in the first round are going to get players who some people see as middle first rounders, and players looked at as late round picks are going to slide to the second round through no fault of their own. If a team is looking to draft the best player available they might not have enough time on the clock in Round 1 to make a decision.
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