2013 DSA Player Rankings 1.0

I missed writing my TMG DraftZone blog, and it's time to make up for lost time, so to speak. I've been compiling mock draft data, and the information shows what I mentioned in my last entry. There are a lot of good, solid players, and it shows with the sheer number of players that people see as first round worthy. In the 10 mock drafts I used for the first installment of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, there were 55 players that were put in at least 1 mock draft. Somewhere along the line, there are going to be others that also get mentioned. Which means that the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft is going to be filled with players that have first round grades. What this year's draft lacks in star power it makes up for in volume. That lack of star power is revealed with only 15 players being mentioned in all 10 mock drafts I researched. Outside of Luke Joeckel, I'd have to classify the rest as a Safe Bet to Succeed rather than a Sure Fire Lock to Star in the NFL. But for me the most interesting mock draft picks concern the quarterbacks. Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon were only mentioned in 3 mocks, and Matt Barkley in just 1. But all three were put in the Top 10 of those mock drafts. That may be the strangest thing I've seen in all the years I've been doing this. Teams that seem to need a quarterback lead people to say that they need a quarterback, then the teams start believing that they really need a quarterback and they reach when they should be patient. It's going to be a fun draft season. Without me rambling on much more (I'll save that for later in this blog), here is the first installment of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings: 1) Luke Joeckel 3.10 2) Geno Smith 3.30 3) Damontre Moore 5.10 4) Bjoern Werner 5.60 5) Star Lotulelei 6.90 6) Dee Milliner 7.60 7) Jarvis Jones 7.90 8) Eric Fisher 9.00 9) Barkevious Mingo 9.90 10) Dion Jordan 11.60 11) Chance Warmack 13.50 12) Sheldon Richardson 15.50 13) Ezekiel Ansah 16.30 14) Lane Johnson 17.90 15) Kenny Vaccaro 18.20 16) Keenan Allen 19.40 17) Cordarrelle Patterson 20.60 18) Manti Te'o 21.30 19) Jonathon Cooper 21.60 20) Alec Ogletree 22.50 21) Sharrif Floyd 23.30 22) Xavier Rhodes 23.60 23) Johnathon Hankins 24.10 24) D.J. Fluker 26.90 25) Kevin Minter 27.20 26) Johnathon Banks 28.00 27) John Jenkins 28.40 28) Tyler Wilson 28.90 29) Tyler Eifert 29.00 30) Mike Glennon 29.80 31) Zack Ertz 30.00 32) Jesse Williams 30.30 33) Tavon Austin 31.40 34) Sam Montgomery 31.60 35) Eric Reid 31.60 It is going to be a draft heavily weighted to the defense. Of the 35 players I have listed with a first round DSA Player Ranking average, 21 are on the defensive side of the ball. The lack of pretty boy offensive skill players is also very evident. Three wide receivers, two tight ends and three quarterbacks. No running backs. The Big Uglies up front are going to be the featured players in 2013. Can the Pretty Boy Quarterbacks make inroads at the top of the draft? I get the feeling that come draft weekend in April, the quarterbacks are all that we will be hearing about. When I post the next DSA Player Rankings, let's see who the movers are and how much. It's going to be a fun draft season in 2013.

Round and Round the Mock Drafts Go

The TMG DraftZone is back after a brief hiatus. As much as I love writing about the NFL Draft and the mock draft industry that surrounds it, family and work have taken precedence lately. But after compiling my initial data for the 2013 NFL Draft there are a number of trends starting to emerge. It is pretty clear that the best player, the one with the most upside, and the one with the best chance at success in the NFL is the same player: Luke Joeckel. The top offensive tackle prospect out of Texas A&M looks to be the only player certain to go in the top 5 at this time. Kansas City needs him to anchor it's line, Jacksonville and Oakland could really use him to protect their quarterbacks, whoever they may end up playing at the position, and Philadelphia should thank the football gods if Joeckel falls to them at #4 overall. If for some reason Joeckel goes to #5, either Detroit will take him or someone will trade up to get him. I'll take that to the bank now. From what I have seen so far, the rest of the first round is up for grabs. I believe that Kansas City will take Geno Smith with the #1 overall pick. I've seen mock drafts with Joeckel there as well. I've also seen a mock draft with Tyler Wilson going #1. That is also the only mock draft that even has Wilson going in the first round. I've seen people put Mike Glennon in the top 10 to either Buffalo or the New York Jets. Or not in the first round at all. But Panic in the Draft Room will set in, and both will end up going in the first round. If they do not go early, the trade frenzy at the end of Round 1 will be off the charts. Teams like Arizona, Jacksonville, and the aforementioned Jets and Bills should be looking to get the best player available at the top of Round 1, then trading back up to get a quarterback. and I'm sure there will be a number of trading partners available. Can you picture the New England Patriots NOT making a deal? Or Baltimore. Teams that have a history of making deals and still getting the players they want. It's going to happen. I'm going to make my February Bold Prediction: Even though there are no superstar quarterbacks coming into the 2013 NFL Draft, there will be 5 quarterbacks taken in the First Round. Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. I see two of them going in the Top 10, and the other three going in the last 10 picks of the First Round. The reason teams will be making deals is that there is a depth of good, solid players throughout the draft. Players that the right team can pick in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds, sit for a while, get them acclimated to the NFL, and then become productive starters. I have started to see players projected to go in the top 5 in some Mock Drafts and in the second half of Round 1 as well. Players are all over the board, even more than usual. I'm sure there will be some settling in the mock draft process. There always is. The NFL Scouting Combine is less than 2 weeks away, followed by Pro Days at campuses all across the nation. The process should sort itself out, but this year is crazy enough that anything can happen. Welcome to the 2013 NFL Draft. Let the fun begin.

The Quarterback Carousel Goes Round And Round

The 2012 NFL regular season ended two days ago. Seven coaches and five general managers got the ax yesterday. It's amazing how much the NFL has become a quarterback driven league. Taking a look at everyone who got a pink slip, with the exception of Lovie Smith in Chicago, they have one thing in common: inconsistent to bad play at the quarterback position. Normally, my blog centers on the NFL Draft. But with the lack of superstars at the quarterback position coming into the draft, and the annual Panic In The Draft Room that occurs every year, what happens to the veterans at the position will impact which signal callers entering the league end up where they get selected. Kansas City holds the first selection, and they need a quarterback perhaps more than any one. Matt Cassell has not been the player in KC that he showed in New England during his one season in place of Tom Brady. Then again, that year he took over a team that had just gone 18-1, and he had Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. Cassell led the Chiefs to the playoffs in 2010, but he was supported by a strong running game and a strong defense. The pieces are in place, but Cassell has not been able to put the puzzle together. Brady Quinn stepped in late in the season after Cassell was injured, but Quinn has been a bust for three teams now, and his future is that of Terry Hanratty. A clipboard holding backup. Jacksonville has the second pick, and I believe they will start the dominoes when they trade for Tim Tebow. Shahid Khan wants him in Jacksonville, and even though everyone is telling him that Tebow is not the answer Khan knows that he will put people in the seats. At least for a few games. Tim Tebow is a great competitor, a winner, and a bad passer of the football. He deserves a fair chance to succeed on a team that wants him. And no matter what you say about Tebow the quarterback, he is better than Blaine Gabbert. Blaine Gabbert shows that teams will take a chance on a quarterback high in the draft these days. With the rookie salary cap in place, the big money isn't going to the unproven rookies as it once did. Missing on a high pick can still set a team back, but now they can cast them off earlier then before because the financial hit is not what it once was. So even though the talent at the quarterback position going into the 2013 NFL Draft is not anywhere near the top tier of past drafts, some team will take a chance on Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, or Tyler Wilson. But when the quarterback carousel finally stops, and the veterans finally find new homes, that may change. Teams are going to be looking at Michael Vick and Alex Smith, perhaps Matt Cassell or Carson Palmer. I would not be at all surprised to see Tony Romo or Mark Sanchez find new homes. I would be surprised even less if they were traded for each other in a straight up swap. Give each player a new home and a fresh start. Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy both may be on the way out of Cleveland with new ownership and a new coach coming in. Matt Flynn most likely won't want to sit behind Russell Wilson in Seattle, and may want out. Joe Flacco is a free agent, and after turning down a contract from Baltimore in the offseason, if the Ravens do not put the franchise tag on him, Flacco will be looking for a new team. But I do not see Flacco going anywhere except the bank. But one quarterback who will get a lot of interest from teams is the one player who has the least amount of experience on field, and that is Ryan Mallett of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is not going to retire any time soon, and Mallett has two years left on his rookie contract. Mallett fell to the third round in 2011 due to off field issues, but he has kept his nose clean under the tuteledge of Bill Belichick, and New England could very easily get a higher draft pick for Mallett than what they selected him with. Mallett has the talent, has had the opportunity to learn from the best in New England, and someone will give him a chance if the Patriots want to part ways. Teams will be looking for the next Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Russell Wilson. But I don't see the talent in the deep end of the pool this year. But as I have posted the past drafts, Panic In The Draft Room will set in, and the quarterbacks in this years draft will shoot up the boards. Just as they do every year.