TMG DraftZone 2013 NFL Draft Grades: AFC South

The Houston Texans were able to repeat as AFC South division champs in 2012, but the arrival of the 1st Overall pick in the 2012 Draft, Andrew Luck, put the Indianapolis Colts back on the map. Luck was everything he was advertised to be and even more. It looks like the AFC South is going to be a two team race for a long time. The Tennessee Titans are hoping that their first round pick in 2011, Jake Locker, can develop as well at the quarterback position and make the Titans a contender once again. The fourth team in the AFC South, Jacksonville, is not nearly as settled at quarterback as they would like to be. Blaine Gabbert was picked two spots after Locker, but he has the look of a journeyman signal caller. Chad Henne was brought in from Miami, but not many see him as the long term answer. I've been an advocate for the Jaguars bringing in Tim Tebow, but he needs to get a fair chance of winning the quarterback job instead of being the sideshow he was in New York with the Jets. I'd make the case right now that the best quarterback the Jaguars have is their 5th round pick this year, a player they selected to play running back, and that is Denard Robinson from Michigan. Any way you slice it, it could be a long year in Jacksonville. So here are the TMG DraftZone 2013 NFL Draft Grades for the AFC South, along with key selections and sleeper picks. Houston: B DeAndre Hopkins (WR) Sam Montgomery (DE) Hopkins is seen as the answer to giving Andre Johnson a running mate on the opposite side of the field, and if he can develop as teh Texans think he can, then it will open up the middle of the field even more for Arian Foster. The second round brought a tough, physical safety in D.J Swearinger, who should be able to make an impact right away in a secondary that still gives up too many yards. Montgomery fell down the draft boards after blurting out he took plays off in college, but he has the ability to be a very good edge rusher. With J.J. Watt on one side, Montgomery could be very effective for the Tecans. Indianapolis: B Hugh Thornton (G) Khaled Holmes (C) Bjoern Werner fell all the way to the Colts at #24, and he has a chance to thrive as the replacement to Dwight Freeney. Thornton was seen as a bit of a stretch pick, but the first priority for the Colts is to protect the franchise, and that is Andrew Luck. Thornton was the player the Colts pegged to do just that, and Holmes could eventually move into the center position. Holmes played most of last year injured, and even in the fourth round he will be a value pick. Jacksonville: B+ Luke Joeckel (T) Denard Robinson (QB) Whoever the Jaguars play at qaurterback, they will have the best player in the draft protecting his left side. Joeckel will be the anchor that the offensive line will build around, just as Jacksonville did when they were formed in 1995 when their very first pick was Tony Boselli. Johnathon Cyprien and Dwayne Gratz can form the foundation for a revamped secondary, and Ace Sanders is the speedy playmaker on the outside for the future. But it will be interesting to see if Robinson gets a chance to play quarterback. If he is seen as too small, then those critics should look at Russell Wilson. I watched Robinson play in college, and he isn't the prototypical quarterback, but he is a playmaker, and I would love to see him get a chance. Tennessee: B+ Justin Hunter (WR) Brian Schwenke (C) The Titans went to shore up their offensive line, and the found their man in Chance Warmack. They got the best guard in the draft, and for a protector for Locker and a road grater for Chris Johnson. Hunter will be a key pick. The Titans traded up to get him, and now Locker has an outside target to develop the passing game with. Blidi Wreh-Wilson was a value pick in Round 3, and Schwenke was as well in Round 4. Schwenke can team with Warmack to solidify the center of the offensive line for years to come.

TMG DraftZone Final Mock Draft for 2013

As I posted in my final DSA Player Rankings, I am putting out my final 2013 NFL Mock Draft. I'm heading on vacation and leaving the computer behind. Looking at the upcoming draft, about the only certainty is that nothing is for certain. Will Luke Joeckel go #1? Or will it be Eric Fisher, Sharrif Floyd, or Star Lotulelei. Will a quarterback even be selected in Round 1? Or will there be up to 5? This is a crazy year because you just don't know what is going to happen. I made a bold prediction earlier in the draft season that there will be 5 quarterbacks go in Round 1. And as you look down my Mock Draft, you will not find any at all. But that does not mean that I do not forsee any signal callers going on Thursday. Teams will trade up, and I can see Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Buffalo and possibly Arizona making the moves. It will be a long night for the pretty boys if Geno Snmith does not go in the Top 10. They may as well bring a deck of cards and start up a game of Texas Hold 'Em. They could be there a long time. So here is the Final NFL Mock Draft from the TMG DraftZone for 2013: 1) Kansas City Luke Joeckel 2) Jacksonville Dion Jordan 3) Oakland Sharrif Floyd 4) Philadelphia Lane Johnson 5) Detroit Eric Fisher 6) Cleveland Dee Milliner 7) Arizona Chance Warmack 8) Buffalo Tavon Austin 9) NY Jets Jarvis Jones 10) Tennessee Star Lotulelei 11) San Diego Jonathon Cooper 12) Miami Xavier Rhodes 13) Tampa Bay Ezekiel Ansah 14) Carolina Sheldon Richardson 15) New Orleans Barkevious Mingo 16) St. Louis Kenny Vaccaro 17) Pittsburgh Cordarrelle Patterson 18) Dallas Matt Elam 19) NY Giants Alec Ogletree 20) Chicago D.J. Fluker 21) Cincinnati Eric Reid 22) St. Louis Keenan Allen 23) Minnesota Sylvester Williams 24) Indianapolis Johnathon Hankins 25) Minnesota Manti Te'o 26) Green Bay Tyler Eifert 27) Houston Robert Woods 28) Denver Bjoern Werner 29) New England Desmond Trufant 30) Atlanta Cornelius Carradine 31) San Francisco Jonathon Cyprien 32) Baltimore Justin Hunter Tavon Austin is the most exciting playmaker in the draft, and I can easily see Buffalo making the pick to give Kevin Kolb another threat to go along with C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson. If the Bills pass, don't overlook Jerry Jones moving in front of St. Louis to take Austin. Tony Romo needs to start earning that big contract, and putting Austin in the slot with Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten would give the Cowboys the most exciting receiving corps in the NFL. I'm going to be putting my final mock draft selections on NFL.com in their Predict The Pick Contest. It will be interesting to see the winning scores against the last few years, when there were locks at the top of the draft every year. I'll be back with my team draft grades after the draft. Good luck to all of you in your mock drafts, and with the 1st Pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...(unless they trade down, of course).

The Backless TMG DraftZone Mock Draft

The 2013 NFL Draft is now jsut two weeks away. All the buzz is surrounding players on both sides of the ball down in the trenches, as Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Sharrif Floyd and Dion Jordan are looking to be the surest bets to go first overall to Kansas City. The Big Uglies are going to be filing out one by one to shake hands with Commissioner Goddell and bear hug him half to death, and at this point one has to wonder just how long the quarterbacks and running backs are going to be waiting in the wings to hear their names called. This edition of the TMG DraftZone is unique, as it may be one of the few mock drafts without a quarterback or running back in the top 32 picks. I made a bold prediction earlier in this draft season that there would be 5 quarterbacks taken in the first round. There might still be that many selected, but that will depend on how many teams are willing to trade back up into Round 1 and take a chance on their perceived franchise signal caller. Thinking back to 2005 with Aaron Rodgers and 2007 with Brady Quinn, I wonder just how far Geno Smith could drop if he goes past the New York Jets at #9, and how uncomfortable he will look the longer he stays in the Green Room at Radio City Music Hall. I believe Smith will go in the Top 10, and I also believe that Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib will go late in Round 1, but after that who really knows. But I'm pretty sure now that there will not be any running backs going in the first round. Eddie Lacy was seen as the back with the best chance to go in the Top 32, but after his workot today he will be lucky to go in the first half of Round 2. Lacy did not get to work out at the NFL Scouting Combine or at the Alabama Pro Day, and when he does get his chance at his personal workout today, he looks slow and out of shape. Not the proper way to impress your future employers. It is hard to believe that none of the first round draft picks are going to be taken from the two glamour positions of the NFL, but it might happen. So here is the Backless TMG DraftZone Mock Draft: 1) Kansas City--Luke Joeckel 2) Jacksonville--Dion Jordan 3) Oakland--Sharrif Floyd 4) Philadelphia--Dee Milliner 5) Detroit--Eric Fisher 6) Cleveland--Ezekiel Ansah 7) Arizona--Lane Johnson 8) Buffalo--Tavon Austin 9) NY Jets--Barkevious Mingo 10) Tennessee--Chance Warmack 11) San Diego--Jonathon Cooper 12) Miami--Xavier Rhodes 13) Tampa Bay--Bjoern Werner 14) Carolina--Sheldon Richardson 15) New Orleans--Jarvis Jones 16) St. Louis--Kenny Vaccaro 17) Pittsburgh--Alec Ogletree 18) Dallas--Star Lotulelei 19) NY Giants--Damontre Moore 20) Chicago--Cordarrelle Patterson 21) Cincinnati--D.J. Fluker 22) St. Louis--Keenan Allen 23) Minnesota--Justin Hunter 24) Indianapolis--Datone Jones 25) Minnesota--Sylvester Williams 26) Green Bay--Tyler Eifert 27) Houston--Matt Elam 28) Denver--Jesse Williams 29) New England--Robert Woods 30) Atlanta--Johnathon Hankins 31) San Francisco--Jonathon Cyprien 32) Baltimore--Eric Reid The lineman in the draft are going to be the story in two weeks on Draft Day. I have 19 offensive and defensive lineman combined going in Round 1. The Pretty Boys are representated well with 5 wide receivers and 1 tight end going in Round 1, and I have a feeling that Tavon Austin is going to be picked early. Austin is the most dynamic playmaker in the draft, and if he can go to Buffalo at #8 then Kevin Kolb will be one happy journeyman quarterback. The 2013 NFL Draft is in two weeks. Mock Drafts are flying around fast and furious. This is one year that just about anything could happen on Day 1. It's going to make for a fun and entertaining NFL Draft this year.

DSA Player Rankings 5.0--The Post Free Agnecy Edition

Greetings and Salutations to All. The TMG DraftZone is back after a brief hiatus. Too much work and not enough time to write is making your favorite NFL Draft Blogger a very worn out, very dull boy. But I've been able to accumulate the latest NFL Mock Draft data to compile The Post Free Agency DSA Player Rankings, Version 5.0 In the time since free agency started, what have we learned in regards to the 2013 NFL Draft? The more teams change their roster, the more their draft needs stay the same. Kansas City still needs a bookend tackle who can eventually replace Brandon Albert. Jacksonville still needs a pass rusher and a franchise quarterback. Oakland needs a defensive tackle, and just about everything else, including a quarterback. Just because they traded for Matt Flynn, are getting rid of Carson Palmer, and still have Terrelle Pyror on the roster don't count the Raiders out of the Geno Smith Sweepstakes. Flynn may be a change of direction, but if you keep changing your direction by turning the same way all the time, all you do is keep going in circles. The DSA Player Rankings 5.0 shows not a lot of movement at the top. Luke Joeckel is still the choice of mock drafts everywhere to go #1 Overall to Kansas City. The Jaguars need to get a pass rusher has moved Dion Jordan up to #2, Oakland still looks like the landing spot for Sharrif Floyd at #3, and Chip Kelly would love to have Eric Fisher anchoring his offensive line in Philadelphia, and Fisher is the pick of many to land with the Eagles with the fourth pick. One casualty of free agency appears to be Cordarrelle Patterson, who looked to be a lock to go no later than #12 to Miami, until the Dolphins went out and signed Mike Wallace. As Patterson falls seven spots, Tavon Austni rises seven as well. Patterson might still be targeted by Buffalo at #8, and Austin looks to be in the sights of St. Louis at #16, but this draft is truly shaping up to be one for The Big Uglies up front. No running backs look to go in Round 1, many see only 1 quarterback going in the first 32 picks (although I still see a major Panic In The Draft Room epidemic breaking out), and though as many as 4 receivers could go in round 1, none look to go in the first seven selections. This is going to be an interesting draft to say the least. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 5.0, the Post Free Agency Edition: 1) Luke Joeckel 1.70 2) Dion Jordan 3.90 3) Sharrif Floyd 4.10 4) Eric Fisher 4.20 5) Geno Smith 5.10 6) Dee Milliner 5.30 7) Lane Johnson 9.40 8) Ezekiel Ansah 9.90 9) Barkevious Mingo 11.00 10) Xavier Rhodes 11.90 11) Star Lotulelei 12.30 12) Chance Warmack 12.70 13) Jarvis Jones 14.10 14) Jonathon Cooper 14.40 15) Sheldon Richardson 15.10 16) Bjoern Werner 15.80 17) Cordarrelle Patterson 18.20 18) Tavon Austin 18.20 19) Kenny Vaccaro 18.40 20) Alec Ogletree 22.90 21) D.J. Fluker 24.20 22) Desmond Trufant 25.80 23) Datone Jones 26.90 24) Keenan Allen 27.40 25) Tyler Eifert 27.50 26) DeAndre Hopkins 29.60 27) Matt Barkley 29.70 28) Sylvester Williams 29.80 29) Manti Te'o 30.30 30) Matt Elam 31.00 31) Johnathon Hankins 31.40 32) Robert Woods 32.60 33) Cornelius Carradine 32.90 34) Arthur Brown 33.30 35) Jesse Williams 34.70 36) Eddie Lacy 34.70 37) Justin Hunter 34.90 38) Damontre Moore 35.30 39) Menelik Watson 35.60 40) Margus Hunt 35.60 41) Kevin Minter 35.60 42) Johnathon Banks 35.70 43) Kawann Short 36.90 44) Eric Reid 38.10 I listed the top 44 players on this edition of the DSA Player Rankings, because that is how many players are getting solid looks at going in Round 1. It doesn't look like there is going to be a Chandler Jones or Shea McClellan this year, a player who appears to come out of nowhere late to make his way up into the first round. But this draft is so deep that players who have been getting grades to go around #25 will be going late in Round 2. Eric Reid is at the end of the list at #44, but a very strong Pro Day at LSU will make him to be this years best candidate to surprise in Round 1. And every year there is one player whose stock falls so far all you hear is the Hollywood Wilhelm Scream and he disappears from sight. So to honor the player who looks to be the biggest faller on the draft boards, I'm going to name this the Da'Quan Bowers Stone Drop Award. Bowers went from the early presumptive #1 Overall Pick in 2011, until concerns about his knees dropped him all the way to Tampa Bay at #51 in the 2011 NFL Draft. The year's recepient is Damontre Moore, the defensive end from Texas A&M. When the first DSA Player Rankings were released, Moore was a solid #3. Then the NFL Scouting Combine happened. Moore showed a surprising lack of strength and speed, and his draft stock has increasingly dropped. DSA 2.0 had Moore 9th, 3.0 at 19th, 4.0 seemed to signal a halt at 20th, but the 5.0 DSA Player Rankings have Moore at #38. It does not appear that Moore will be rising up the ranks any time soon. With the depth of defensive lineman, why should a team take a flyer on a player who doesn't look to have the motivation to show teams that his performance at the Combnie is not the player they will be getting in the draft. Moore has the talent to be an impact pass rusher in the NFL, and if he plays with the chip on his shoulder to prove everyone wrong he will be just that. Let's hope for the team that takes Moore that that chip is there from Day 1. I'm sure the next DSA Player Rankings will be the Geno Smith Show. With all the quarterback moves taking place, the big mock draft debate will be who is going to take Smith and where. It's going to be an interesting 23 Days up until the 2013 NFL Draft.

How does your Mock Draft look now?

If it looks anything like my NCAA Tournament Bracket after Day 1, it's probably needs to find the nearest shredder. Free agency has been going full tilt for over a week now, and the moves that have been made are sure to have an impact on the first round of the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft. Kansas City looked to be in the market for a quarterback, wide reciever and tackle. But the Chiefs traded for Alex Smith to run the offense, re-signed Dwayne Bowe and picked up Donnie Avery to catch the ball, and placed the franchise tag on left tackle Brandon Albert. Kansas City is looking for a right tackle to bookend Albert, and to eventually replace him, and Luke Joeckel is still on their radar. One thing that Andy Reid might be looking for is a tradig partner for that top pick, since the Chiefs gave up their second rounder to San Francisco for Smith. But I don't see it happening. The draft is loaded with good players but not the superstars that past drafts have featured. Why would a team trade up to get a player and give up other picks when they can get another pick that is just as good? So for my money KC is still on the clock, and I see them selectnig from a group of Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Star Lotulelei and Sharif Floyd. It all depends on which side of the ball they want to upgrade at the top. Two teams that are looking for quarterbacks continue to be Arizona and Buffalo. Arizona signed Drew Stanton, but I don't think this is pleasing Larry Fitzgerald too terribly much. Now the Cardinals have Stanton, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley to compete for the starting job. My suggestion: get rid of all 4, and draft either Geno Smith or Matt Barkley and start fresh, just the same way new coach Bruce Arians did last year in Indianapolis with Andrew Luck. Now I am not saying that Smith or Barkley is anywhere near the level of Luck, but putting four bald tires on your car is not going to improve the overall performance. Time for a complete overhaul, and you have to start at quarterback. Buffalo did the opposite of Arizona. They just cut their starting quarterback. After giving Ryan Fitzpatrick a huge contract in 2011, they parted ways with Fitzpatrick and now the Bills are faced with a bit of a dilemna. Do they stay put at #8 and take whoever the Cardinals do not select, or do they trade up and leapfrog Arizona and get their man. This is going to be a classic example of Panic in the Draft Room. I don't see a move up to the top with Kansas City, but I would nto be surprised to see Jacksonville move down. The Jags need defensive help, and they can get that at #8 as well as #2, and the prospect of acquiring picks that they gave away to select Justin Blackmon has to be appealing to the Jaguars. Minnesota traded Percy Harvin and then signed Greg Jennings, so their need for a receiver is still there. Miami was a popular landing spot for Cordarrelle Patterson, but with the signing of Mike Wallace look for the Dolphins to go defensive with Xavier Rhodes to take over at cornerback, or Lane Johnson to replace former #1 Overall Pick Jake Long. If Ryan Tannehill is your future quarterback, you better have his backside covered with a franchise tackle. Johnson can fill the bill. And just today the news came out that Tampa Bay will trade a 1st and 2nd Round pick in 2014 to the NY Jets for Darrelle Revis. I have had the Bucs going cornerback in the first round and targeting Xavier Rhodes as well. One might think that with Revis on board that corner would not be a priority. I see that is can still be for Tampa. Revis is still rehabbing a torn ACL, and his status is still up in the air. But I have always been an advocate of having 2 shutdown corners and turning the pass rush loose. Want to get to the quarterback? It's a lot easier if he can't find an open receiver to throw the ball to. Putting Rhodes opposite Revis would create the Florida Keys. One island in line with another. Much has been said about Baltimore losing so many players on defense. Ray Lewis retires. Ed Reed is on his way to Houston. Paul Kruger signed as a free agent with Cleveland. Bernard Pollard is now a member of the Titans. But the Ravens have one of the best GMs in the league with Ozzie Newsome, so I don't see too many holes on the roster come training camp. Now the team that really has my head needing a good scratch is Cincinnati. The Bengals went into free agnecy with over $40 million in cap space, and what have they done-not much of anything. The placed the franchise tag on defensive end Michael Johnson, and re-signed Wallace Gilberry, Rey Maualuga, Mike Nugent, Clark Harris and Adam Jones. They have yet to sign a player from the open market, and have not struck a deal with Andre Smith to bring him back to play right tackle. This is what happens when your owner is also the GM, and the owner is a tightwad. Just about everyone will agree that the Bengals are ready to get over the hurdle, win in the playoffs and make a run at the Super Bowl. But when you have the cap space to improve your team and you don't, you shouldn't expect your team to improve. The talent is there in Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Geno Atkins, but apparently Brown is happy picking 21st every year, since that is the pick which goes to the team that makes the playoffs and has the worst record of those that lose in the divisional round. 2013 is the 3rd time in 4 years that Cincinnati has picked in that particular slot. There is still time to make some moves in free agency. Now it will be seen if the Bengals can make the moves they need to make a run through the playoffs. I will be putting together the Post-Free Agency DSA Player Rankings, and it will be interesting to see who has who going where now that the veterans have found their landing spots. It's five week until the 2013 NFL Draft. Let the mock draft roll on in.

2013 DSA Player Rankings 4.0--Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition

We are just over a week removed from the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine, and Pro Days are starting up at universities and colleges all across the nation. Free agancy begins in less than a week, and mock drafts are starting to reflect the moves already made and those that may be made. The players at the top of the mock drafts appear to be pretty much set, and those at the bottom half of Round 1 look like they could be listed in any order and no one would be surprised. I call this the Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, version 4.0. Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher are still in the top 2 slots, Dee Milliner and Dion Jordan are still #4 and #5 respectively, Ezekiel Ansah is #7 and Barkevious Mingo is #9. Geno Smith and Sharrif Floyd exchanged positions at #3 and #6, with Floyd moving up behind Joeckel and Fisher in the top three. The biggest move up in the top half was Jarvis Jones, now at #11, and the largest drop at the top was Bjoern Werner, falling six moer positions to #14. Looking at the top 18 players, there isn't that big of a talent gap among the group. A player like Kenny Vaccaro or Xavier Rhodes could easily move up to the top 10 if a team values their talent enough, and Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah could fall to the middle of Round 1 if they are seen as too raw or unpolished. But for now I do not see anyone making the jump up into the top group. The reason is that the gap between player ratings I mentioned in the previous DSA's is getting even larger. Vaccaro is stuck in the middle, but there is now a nearly 6 point gap between Jonathon Cooper at #17 and Keenan Allen at #19. The players at the bottom are bunched up ratings points wise. Less than 3 points separate six players from #20 to #25, and the last seven spots are less than 2 points apart. The biggest risers and fallers are found in the lower half. Sylvester Williams makes his first appearance at #27, and Sam Montgomery is back in at #34. Montgomery at the same position as the first DSA's this year, but his score is a full three points less. Arthur Brown also makes his first appearance, and he nearly surpassed Manti Te'o. If Te'o does not impress during his Pro Day at Notre Dame, look for the Heisman Trophy runner-up to start showing up in Round 2 of mock drafts everywhere. So here is the 2013 DSA Player Rankings 4.0--The Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition: 1) Luke Joeckel 1.40 2) Eric Fisher 4.30 3) Sharrif Floyd 4.70 4) Dee Milliner 5.00 5) Dion Jordan 5.10 6) Geno Smith 6.30 7) Ezekiel Ansah 8.40 8) Lane Johnson 10.60 9) Barkevious Mingo 10.70 10) Cordarrelle Patterson 11.90 11) Jarvis Jones 13.00 12) Star Lotulelei 13.10 13) Chance Warmack 13.30 14) Bjoern Werner 14.30 15) Xavier Rhodes 14.60 16) Sheldon Richardson 14.70 17) Jonathon Cooper 15.90 18) Kenny Vaccaro 18.30 19) Keenan Allen 21.40 20) Damontre Moore 22.70 21) Tyler Eifert 22.70 22) D.J. Fluker 23.80 23) Alec Ogletree 24.30 24) Desmond Trufant 25.40 25) Tavon Austin 25.50 26) Datone Jones 28.90 27) Sylvester Williams 29.30 28) Johnathon Hankins 30.40 29) DeAndre Hopkins 33.00 30) Kawann Short 33.40 31) Manti Te'o 33.50 32) Arthur Brown 33.90 33) Cornelius Carradine 34.30 34) Sam Montgomery 34.60 35) Matt Elam 34.90 In case you are wondering what has happened to Matt Barkley, of the ten mock drafts I compiled for this DSA, he was at #9 in one and out of the other 9. In fact, Tyler Wilson had a higher grade, as he was at #8 in one and out of the other 9 as well. The rumors coming out of the Scouting Combine about the Cardinals taking Barkley at #7 seem to be fading. I have made the bold prediction that 5 quarterbacks will be selected in the 1st Round, and right now I can say that there will need to be a severe case of Panic In The Draft Room for it to happen. Geno Smith looks to go in either the seventh, eighth, or ninth picks, and any other quarterbacks will most likely go at the bottom of Round 1 via teams trading up to get their quarterback of the future. Considering how deep and balanced this draft is, who goes where and when is not going to surprise me at all. So far, I have listed 56 players from various mock drafts that have gotten a first round grade. That is nearly enough to fill the first 2 rounds. I will say this: someone is really going to have to screw up their picks to get a draft grade below a C this year. Let the Pro Days commence, and let's see who is moving up and down for the next edition of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings.

2013 DSA Player Rankings 3.0 Post-Combine Edition

The 2013 NFL Scouting Combine has come and gone, and it is time for the DSA Palyer Rankings 3.0, the Post-Combine Edition. The players have done the drills, taken the tests, and interviewed until they are blue in the face. Now it is time to analyze the results of last weekend in Indianapolis. The players that have stood out the most, for better or worse, are also the ones that are taking the biggest hits on their mock draft ratings, and in the DSA Player Rankings. The biggest drop was from Johnathon Hankins, who many see as a player who should have stayed in college another year. Hankins is talented, and can be a premier run stopper, but he still needs some polishing. Hankins fell 12 spots, but he still looks to be a late first/early second round pick. The next three biggest drops came from players who either underperformed or didn't perform at all. In the previous DSA Player Rankings, Damontre Moore dropped from #3 to #9. Now Moore has dropped another 10 spots to #19. His on-field workouts were lackluster, and his showing in the weight room was less than stellar. Moore could still be a top 10 selection in the upcoming draft, but his pro day workout had better be impressive. Two players that did not work out and who are taking hits on their draft stack are Jarvis Jones and Star Lotulelei. Jones chose not to work out, but questions concerning his spinal stenosis have thrown up red flags about his long term health. But the biggest health concern came from Lotulelei. He was shown to have a circulation problem with a heart ventricle, and he did not get a chance to show teams that he is the dominant defensive tackle on the draft boards. Lotulelei fell 10 spots, and Jones fell nine. The biggest sideshow of the combine was Manti Te'o. He answered all the questions concerning his alleged girlfriend and the whole catfish hoax, but he failed to impress on the field. His 40 time of 4.82 was slower than expected, and he did not stand out from the pack. Coupled with his poor showing in the BCS Championship Game, his draft stock is going even further down. Te'o fell another 8 spots in the latest DSA Player Rankings. Perhaps the oddest drop belongs to Bjoern Werner. But his fall in the DSA's is indicitive of how wide open this draft is going to be. Werner fell 6 spots, but in 4 of the 10 mock drafts I used for this DSA Rankings he was listed at #2 on the boards to Jacksonville, and on antoher Werner was 3rd. But Werner was also placed at #18 three times and #19 once. The draft is loaded with a lot of very good players that could go anywhere in Round 1 or Round 2. This is very much a 15/35/55 Draft. The player that goes at #55 is going to be as good as the one at #35, and that player is going to be as good as the one at #15. The biggest movers up are, for the most part, at the top of the DSA's. Ezekiel Ansah gained 10 spots, and Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd gained 6 each. Eric Fisher moved up three spots to take over the 2nd slot, and Dee Milliner gained four spots to #4. Both players had excellent workouts, and it has shown in their placements at the top of mock drafts everywhere. Cornelius Carradine made the biggest jump of all, moving up into the top of the class to #27. His physical ability has teams intrigued, and between Carradine and Margus Hunt it will be fun to watch which one moves up the charts the fastest. Hunt looks to be the second coming of J.J. Watt-tall, athletic, with the ability to swat down passes and kicks with the greatest of ease. But he is a raw talent and teams see the potential. Hunt will be the biggest mover up the draft boards in the coming weeks. Luke Joeckel remains at the top of the DSA's, and with Alex Smith on his way to Kansas City, he looks to stay there a while. If the Chiefs re-sign Brandon Albert, they may look to a pass rusher. But for now the #1 pick of the draft looks to be the player who has been rated at the top of everyone's draft boards since Day 1, and Joeckel is the pick. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0, the Post Combine Edition: 1) Luke Joeckel 2.10 2) Eric Fisher 5.50 3) Geno Smith 5.50 4) Dee Milliner 5.80 5) Dion Jordan 7.60 6) Sharrif Floyd 8.10 7) Ezekiel Ansah 9.30 8) Bjoern Werner 9.60 9) Barkevious Mingo 9.60 10) Chance Warmack 11.30 11) Lane Johnson 12.00 12) Sheldon Richardson 13.10 13) Cordarrelle Patterson 13.60 14) Star Lotulelei 15.00 15) Jarvis Jones 16.00 16) Xavier Rhodes 17.20 17) Kenny Vaccaro 17.20 18) Jonathon Cooper 17.90 19) Damontre Moore 18.20 20) Keenan Allen 22.20 21) Tavon Austin 25.50 22) Matt Barkley 26.00 23) Tyler Eifert 26.10 24) D.J. Fluker 27.10 25) Desmond Trufant 28.00 26) Datone Jones 28.80 27) Cornelius Carradine 29.40 28) DeAndre Hopkins 29.90 29) Alec Ogletree 30.00 30) Kawann Short 30.20 31) Manti Te'o 31.20 32) Jesse Williams 31.30 33) Johnathon Hankins 32.00 34) Eddie Lacy 32.40 35) Johnathon Cyprien 32.50 36) Alex Okafor 33.70 37) Jonathon Banks 34.00 38) Matt Elam 34.40 One strange anomoly of this DSA is the big score gap in the middle of the rankings. Normally, a difference of 3 points between spots is a big gap. But from Damontre Moore at #19 to Tavon Austin at #21, there is a difference of nearly 8 points. Players are finding their way to spots all over the mock drafts. The rumors have Matt Barkley going to Arizona at #7, and there are those who say he won't go in the first round at all. Barkley has made his way up to #22, but the fact he was not in six of the 10 mock drafts that make up this DSA shows that there is a great difference of opinion concerning the draft. We are going to see a lot more in the weeks to come. The question now is 'Who is going to separate themselves at their Pro Day workouts?' In the next seven weeks before the 2013 NFL Draft, we are going to find out.

TMG DraftZone 2013 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

My first DSA Player Rankings showed a nearly even result as to who the #1 pick in the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft will be. Will Kansas City go with a quarterback, presumeably Geno Smith, or the top rated player in most eyes with tackle Luke Joeckel? With my first mock draft for 2013, and as I have stated previously, I believe that the player the Chiefs will take #1 is going to be Geno Smith. If that is the case, then Joeckel should go off the board next, but Jacksonville and Oakland need help on the defensive side of the ball, especially getting to the quarterback. So Philadelphia looks to get a gift and the left tackle they need with the 4th overall selection. Normally, I would only be releasing one or two mock drafts a year, but this isn't a normal year. No true standouts at the top of the draft and a host of good, solid talent that could very easily go anywhere in Round 1. I have also posted before that I believe 5 quarterbacks will go in the first round, and you will notice that I only have two listed. I look for the bottom of Round 1 to be dominated by trades on draft day, and since there is no way of guessing who will be trading with who I'll hold off guessing where the quarterbacks will be drafted. So here is the first TMG DraftZone mock draft for 2013: 1) Kansas City--Geno Smith (Quarterback) 2) Jacksonville--Jarvis Jones (Outside Linebacker) 3) Oakland--Damontre Moore (Defensive End) 4) Philadelphia--Luke Joeckel (Tackle) 5) Detroit--Dee Milliner (Cornerback) 6) Cleveland--Bjoern Werner (Defensive End) 7) Arizona--Eric Fisher (Tackle) 8) Buffalo--Tyler Wilson (Quarterback) 9) NY Jets--Barkevious Mingo (Defensive End) 10) Tennessee--Star Lotulelei (Defensive Tackle) 11) San Diego--Dion Jordan (Defensive End) 12) Miami--Cordarrelle Patterson (Wide Receiver) 13) Tampa Bay--Xavier Rhodes (Cornerback) 14) Carolina--Sheldon Richardson (Defensive Tackle) 15) New Orleans--Ezekiel Ansah (Defensive End) 16) St. Louis--Chance Warmack (Guard) 17) Pittsburgh--Kenny Vaccaro (Safety) 18) Dallas--Manti Te'o (Middle Linebacker) 19) NY Giants--Lane Johnson (Tackle) 20) Chicago--Jonathon Cooper (Guard) 21) Cincinnati--Sam Montgomery (Defensive End) 22) St. Louis--Keenan Allen (Wide Receiver) 23) Minnesota--Sharrif Floyd (Defensive Tackle) 24) Indianapolis--Johnathon Hankins (Defensive Tackle) 25) Seattle--Tavon Austin (Wide Receiver) 26) Green Bay--Eddie Lacy (Running Back) 27) Houston--Kevin Minter (Middle Linebacker) 28) Denver--Tyler Eifert (Tight End) 29) New England--Robert Woods (Wide Receiver) 30) Atlanta--Kawann Short (Defensive Tackle) 31) San Francisco--Matt Elam (Safety) 32) Baltimore--Barrett Jones (Center) One player I did not have in my mock draft was Alec Ogletree, the talented middle linebacker. His off the field problems continue this weekend, and a player with the talent to go in the top 10 looks to be falling a long way down the draft boards. A lot of people will tell you that to succeed in the NFL you need a quarterback and to get to the quarterback. I can see defense ruling the day at the draft. My mock draft has 18 defensive players going in Round 1, and of those 12 are lineman or linebackers whose job it is to get the quarterback and put him on the ground. Last year Seattle made quite a reach in Round 1 to get Bruce Irvin to do just that, and we will have to wait and see if a team will risk doing that this year. But there is a lot of talent to go around, and I for one will not be surprised to see a player that gets overlooked suddenly pop up out of nowhere to go in the first round. With the NFL Scouting Combine next week, the stage is there for a player to shine and move his way up. We shall see.

2013 DSA Player Rankings 1.0

I missed writing my TMG DraftZone blog, and it's time to make up for lost time, so to speak. I've been compiling mock draft data, and the information shows what I mentioned in my last entry. There are a lot of good, solid players, and it shows with the sheer number of players that people see as first round worthy. In the 10 mock drafts I used for the first installment of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, there were 55 players that were put in at least 1 mock draft. Somewhere along the line, there are going to be others that also get mentioned. Which means that the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft is going to be filled with players that have first round grades. What this year's draft lacks in star power it makes up for in volume. That lack of star power is revealed with only 15 players being mentioned in all 10 mock drafts I researched. Outside of Luke Joeckel, I'd have to classify the rest as a Safe Bet to Succeed rather than a Sure Fire Lock to Star in the NFL. But for me the most interesting mock draft picks concern the quarterbacks. Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon were only mentioned in 3 mocks, and Matt Barkley in just 1. But all three were put in the Top 10 of those mock drafts. That may be the strangest thing I've seen in all the years I've been doing this. Teams that seem to need a quarterback lead people to say that they need a quarterback, then the teams start believing that they really need a quarterback and they reach when they should be patient. It's going to be a fun draft season. Without me rambling on much more (I'll save that for later in this blog), here is the first installment of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings: 1) Luke Joeckel 3.10 2) Geno Smith 3.30 3) Damontre Moore 5.10 4) Bjoern Werner 5.60 5) Star Lotulelei 6.90 6) Dee Milliner 7.60 7) Jarvis Jones 7.90 8) Eric Fisher 9.00 9) Barkevious Mingo 9.90 10) Dion Jordan 11.60 11) Chance Warmack 13.50 12) Sheldon Richardson 15.50 13) Ezekiel Ansah 16.30 14) Lane Johnson 17.90 15) Kenny Vaccaro 18.20 16) Keenan Allen 19.40 17) Cordarrelle Patterson 20.60 18) Manti Te'o 21.30 19) Jonathon Cooper 21.60 20) Alec Ogletree 22.50 21) Sharrif Floyd 23.30 22) Xavier Rhodes 23.60 23) Johnathon Hankins 24.10 24) D.J. Fluker 26.90 25) Kevin Minter 27.20 26) Johnathon Banks 28.00 27) John Jenkins 28.40 28) Tyler Wilson 28.90 29) Tyler Eifert 29.00 30) Mike Glennon 29.80 31) Zack Ertz 30.00 32) Jesse Williams 30.30 33) Tavon Austin 31.40 34) Sam Montgomery 31.60 35) Eric Reid 31.60 It is going to be a draft heavily weighted to the defense. Of the 35 players I have listed with a first round DSA Player Ranking average, 21 are on the defensive side of the ball. The lack of pretty boy offensive skill players is also very evident. Three wide receivers, two tight ends and three quarterbacks. No running backs. The Big Uglies up front are going to be the featured players in 2013. Can the Pretty Boy Quarterbacks make inroads at the top of the draft? I get the feeling that come draft weekend in April, the quarterbacks are all that we will be hearing about. When I post the next DSA Player Rankings, let's see who the movers are and how much. It's going to be a fun draft season in 2013.

Round and Round the Mock Drafts Go

The TMG DraftZone is back after a brief hiatus. As much as I love writing about the NFL Draft and the mock draft industry that surrounds it, family and work have taken precedence lately. But after compiling my initial data for the 2013 NFL Draft there are a number of trends starting to emerge. It is pretty clear that the best player, the one with the most upside, and the one with the best chance at success in the NFL is the same player: Luke Joeckel. The top offensive tackle prospect out of Texas A&M looks to be the only player certain to go in the top 5 at this time. Kansas City needs him to anchor it's line, Jacksonville and Oakland could really use him to protect their quarterbacks, whoever they may end up playing at the position, and Philadelphia should thank the football gods if Joeckel falls to them at #4 overall. If for some reason Joeckel goes to #5, either Detroit will take him or someone will trade up to get him. I'll take that to the bank now. From what I have seen so far, the rest of the first round is up for grabs. I believe that Kansas City will take Geno Smith with the #1 overall pick. I've seen mock drafts with Joeckel there as well. I've also seen a mock draft with Tyler Wilson going #1. That is also the only mock draft that even has Wilson going in the first round. I've seen people put Mike Glennon in the top 10 to either Buffalo or the New York Jets. Or not in the first round at all. But Panic in the Draft Room will set in, and both will end up going in the first round. If they do not go early, the trade frenzy at the end of Round 1 will be off the charts. Teams like Arizona, Jacksonville, and the aforementioned Jets and Bills should be looking to get the best player available at the top of Round 1, then trading back up to get a quarterback. and I'm sure there will be a number of trading partners available. Can you picture the New England Patriots NOT making a deal? Or Baltimore. Teams that have a history of making deals and still getting the players they want. It's going to happen. I'm going to make my February Bold Prediction: Even though there are no superstar quarterbacks coming into the 2013 NFL Draft, there will be 5 quarterbacks taken in the First Round. Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. I see two of them going in the Top 10, and the other three going in the last 10 picks of the First Round. The reason teams will be making deals is that there is a depth of good, solid players throughout the draft. Players that the right team can pick in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds, sit for a while, get them acclimated to the NFL, and then become productive starters. I have started to see players projected to go in the top 5 in some Mock Drafts and in the second half of Round 1 as well. Players are all over the board, even more than usual. I'm sure there will be some settling in the mock draft process. There always is. The NFL Scouting Combine is less than 2 weeks away, followed by Pro Days at campuses all across the nation. The process should sort itself out, but this year is crazy enough that anything can happen. Welcome to the 2013 NFL Draft. Let the fun begin.

Movin' On Up

Every year, there is a player who starts out as perhaps a low 1st Round pick in mock drafts, but through his play in all-star games, the NFL Scouting Combine and draft workout Pro Days, as well as his play during his final college season, he moves up towards the top of the draft. Last year, Cleveland made sure they got Trent Richardson by trading up one spot to the 3rd pick, even though many were skeptical about drafting a running back that high in the draft. Luke Kuechly started out in the mocks in the middle of Round 1, then was taken #9 by Carolina. Both players proved their worth by producing outstanding seasons. In 2011, Tryon Smith was seen as the left tackle of the future by Dallas, and the Cowboys selected him #9, even though he was seen as a little raw. Von Miller moved all the way up to #2, and Denver now has one of the best outside linebackers in the game. In 2013, the one player who looks like he was going to be a mid to late first rounder but now he looks like a lock for the top 10 is Eric Fisher, the left tackle from Central Michigan. Fisher is working out this week for the Senior Bowl, and he has looked better than advertised. Big, strong, agile with very good footwork, if Fisher can keep his quarterbacks upright this weekend, has impressive workouts at the Combine and his pro day, Fisher will go in the top 10. But he also has three players to thank just a bit for his selection position. The first two are Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan. Matthews and Lewan were seen as the second and third best tackles behind Luke Joeckel, but both decided to stay in school for their senior seasons. As valuable as quarterbacks are, quality left tackles are just as much so. Adrian Peterson nearly broke the nearly 30 year old single season rushing record held by Eric Dickerson, and in the games I watched I saw a lot of Peterson running left. Right behind Matt Kalil, the Vikings first round pick from 2012 taken 4th overall. Chrisian Ponder may not be developing as quickly as some would like to see, but he made progress and Kalil protecting his blind side will help greatly. Fisher could be a target of Tennessee at #10 or Arizona at #7. Detroit might take a look at #5, but I have a hard time seeing the Lions passing on defensive help there, even at the cost of Matthew Stafford's protection. The third player who will help Fisher move up the draft boards is Joe Staley. Staley came from Central Michigan as well, and teams were leery of taking a smaller school tackle too high at that time. Staley fell all the way to #28 in 2007, but he now anchors the best offensive line in the NFL with San Francisco, is a consistent Pro Bowl pick, and is now getting ready to play in the Super Bowl. Because of his success, teams are more likely to take a look at the player and his ability, not where he played his college ball at. Now is the time for Eric Fisher to shine. The Senior Bowl is this weekend, and this is his opportunity to his move up to the top of the 2013 NFL Draft.

With the 1st pick of the 2013 NFL Draft

The Kansas City Chiefs select...well, if they could, the Chiefs would take any number of players (but that isn't going to happen). The 2012 season for Kansas City was bad enough. The the tragic events surrounding Javon Belcher made it a nightmare to forget. But the games went on, and now the Chiefs enter a new year with a new coach and a chance to make a fresh start. The first overall selection of the 2013 Draft will be an important part of that rebuilding project. New coaches coming in with the 1st pick have a tendency to take a quarterback that they see as the cornerstone they can build around. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. Cleveland and Houston were expansion teams, but the selection of Tim Couch and David Carr did not work out in either instance. Marvin Lewis brought in Carson Palmer to Cincinnati in 2003, and Year 3 brought a division title. But knee and elbow injuries to Palmer only led to one more division title the next five years. Jim Schwartz came to Detroit in 2009, drafted Matthew Stafford, and in their third year as well the Lions made the playoffs. But last year was a major setback in Detroit, and time will tell if coach and quarterback can get Detroit back on track. Perhaps the best new coach/high draft pick combinations to come in together with a team recently were Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia in 1999, and Mike Smith and Matt Ryan in Atlanta in 2008. Although McNabb went 2nd and Ryan went 3rd, I can guarantee you that the teams picking first both years wish they had those selections over to do again. Smith and Ryan are going to the NFC Championship game this weekend, and are in the playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years. Miami had the 1st pick in 2008, and even though Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, the Dolphins have one playoff appearance since then and their quarterback carousel took until 2012 before it finally landed on Ryan Tannehill. McNabb wasn't even the Browns' second choice in 1999. That would have been Akili Smith, who went 3rd to Cincinnati. Cleveland and Cincinnati watched their picks flame out within four seasons, while Reid and McNabb went to 5 NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. Which brings us to 2013. Reid is now coaching Kansas City, and has the 1st Overall selection of the draft. The Chiefs need a quarterback. Matt Cassell and Brady Quinn are not going to cut it. It seems pretty clear cut. Take a quarterback. One problem. This isn't 2012. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are not in the draft this year. Neither is Ryan Tannehill or Russell Wilson. The problem is that the quarterback class of 2013 is about as weak as it has been in recent memory. But I still see Kansas City taking a quarterback #1, and that player is Geno Smith. Even though his final year at West Virginia stalled out at the end after a blazing start, I believe Smith is the quarterback Reid is looking for. Very good size. Mobile and able to move in the pocket and run out of it as well. Good arm strength and very accurate. Doesn't that sound a lot like Donovan McNabb? I write about this every year, and 2013 is no different. Panic in the Draft Room. Teams that need a qaurterback make a reach for someone they could get later in the draft. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But one reason I see Smith going to Kansas City and benig a success is the personnel already there. The Chiefs may have only been 2-14, but they sent 5 players to the Pro Bowl. One of those players is someone Reid never had in Philadelphia, and that is Jamaal Charles. All those great teams the Eagles had never once put out a running back that was the main focus of the offense. Charles can take the pressure off of Smith much the same way that Adrian Peterson has in Minnesota with Christian Ponder. But it doesn't always work that way. Jake Locker in Tennessee and Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville have star backs ni Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew, but a combination of injuries, holdouts, and just plain lack of production has hindered the developments of the young signal callers. The Chiefs could play the waiting game on draft weekend. Take Luke Joeckel, the massive left tackle and the best prospect in the draft, and wait until Round 2 or perhaps trade up to get a quarterback. Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon could still be around. But I don't see it happening. Barring an unforeseen disaster at the Scouting Combine or at his pro day, Geno Smith is going first in the 2013 NFL Draft to the Kansas City Chiefs. I say this because I don't see Andy Reid starting the year with Matt Cassell or Brady Quinn as his starting quarterback. Smith and Reid are a very good match, and I see it happening in April at the 2013 NFL Draft.