End of the season

With their victory in the BCS Championship Game, Auburn claimed the National Title and capped an exciting season of college football. Now with 4 days until the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the 2011 NFL Draft the season for analyzing players and their draft prospects has begun.

For me, there are two players that dramatically increased their draft stock with their performance in the post-season bowl games. They are Nick Fairley, defensive tackle from Auburn, and Cameron Heyward, defensive end from Ohio State.

Fairley was seen as a top 5 pick if he decides to enter the draft, and after his performance against Oregon he is now seen as a possible 1st Overall selection. In the championship game he spent most of his time in the Ducks backfield. The best players bring their best games to the biggest stages, and Fairley was an unstoppable force. Now he is drawing comparisons to Ndamukong Suh, but I believe that is a bit premature. Suh was dominant enough in the 2009 season to be named the AP Player of the Year. He showed in his rookie season with the Detroit Lions that he will be one of the best defensive players for years to come in the NFL. Fairley can attain that same status if he can bring his best game to the next biggest stage, that being the NFL. But as of now he has not declared for the draft, so we will wait and see what his decision will be.

Whatever team Ryan Mallett winds up on, I imagine he is hoping that Heyward does not end up on a division rival. Heyward showed the speed and strength that coaches in the NFL covet greatly for a defensive end, and he was a disruptive force the entire game for the Buckeyes in their win against Arkansas. NFL offensive tackles are getting quicker and more mobile all the time, and a defensive end cannot rely on speed alone to get to the quarterback. Undersized defensive ends like Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey and Aaron Maybin have been top 11 draft picks in recent drafts, and can't make it on the field. I see Heyward as having the combination of size, speed and strength needed to play both end and tackle in the NFL, and his showing in the Sugar Bowl should help his draft stock rise. Many early mock drafts have Heyward gong in the mid to late 1st Round, but it would not be a stretch for him to jump up towards the top 10 if he has an excellent workout at the February NFL Scouting Combine.

I labeled the 2010 NFL Draft as The Year of The Big Uglies, due to the prominence of offensive and defensive lineman at the top of the draft. With the committment of Andrew Luck to stay at Stanford, and no quarterback looking to go higher than 7th to San Francisco, the 2011 NFL Draft is shaping up to be Big Uglies Part 2.

Draft Grades: Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have been trying to rebuild and regroup for so long a season where they win 2 games is looked upon as a major improvement. The reason for optimism lies in their quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and his favorite target, Calvin Johnson. There are still many holes to fill, and the Lions did a good job of doing just that.

Ndamukong Suh was the best player in the draft, and he looks to be a force in the middle if the defensive line for years to come. To give Stafford some help on offense Detroit traded up to select Jahvid Best at the end of the first round. Kevin Smith is coming off of knee surgery, and Best is an electric playmaker who can run and catch out of the backfield. But he is coming off of a serious concussion last season. Time will tell how much that is going to effect him.

The Lions also got a great value with cornerback Amari Spievey in the 3rd Round. He will be looked upon to help shore up the pass defense, and help give Suh time to pressure the quarterback.

Detroit had a chance to take Michael Oher in the 2009 NFL Draft, and some see the offensive line as a question mark. Detroit may have gotten a sleeper pick in Jason Fox, who should be able to step in to the lineup down the road.

Draft Grade: A-

Twas The Night Before The 2010 NFL Draft

It's the day before the 2010 NFL Draft,
And all through Radio City Music Hall
There are players on the rise
And those on the fall.

There is Jimmy Clausen
Who can throw and throw and throw.
But when Washington traded for McNabb
His slot moved low and low and low.

Bruce Campbell worked out so well
Everyone was impressed with his might.
But there isn't much tape of him blocking
On either the left side or the right.

Dez Bryant is as big of a receiver
That anyone has for a while.
But his times in the 40 at his Pro Day
Makes people think his time was for the mile.

Jason Pierre-Paul is a player with raw talent
And his draft slot should not slip.
If there is anyone who doubts his ability
They should see him do a back flip.

Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy are tackles
That are going to be drafted very high.
Choosing between the two of them is like picking between
Marisa Miller and Brooklyn Decker for the cover of SI.

Bulaga, Okung, and Williams are set
To block for a quarterback's blind side.
Waiting to see which one will go first
Will be a very wild ride.

Haden, Berry and Thomas play in the secondary
Where they can really cover and hit.
Cleveland is picking at number seven
And they see any one of the three as a perfect fit.

Pouncey and Iupati are the two best players
In the middle of the line who can really block.
The middle of the first round is where the teams
Who will take them will be on the clock.

The St. Louis Rams have the first pick
And will take the best player then can.
It looks like they are going to take Sam Bradford
And make him a very rich young man.

32 teams are going to make draft picks
Many will see as wrong or right.
Good luck with your mock drafts tomorrow
And to all a good night.

With the 5th Overall Selection, the Kansas City Chiefs...

...Have a lot of options to consider. I believe the first four picks are set. Sam Bradford to St. Louis, Ndamukong Suh to Detroit, Gerald McCoy to Tampa Bay, and Russell Okung to Washington. The wrench in the gears could be the Lions taking Okung, but I can't see them passing on a talent like Suh. The Redskins need a left tackle to block for Donovan McNabb. So that leaves the Chiefs on the clock at #5.

Kansas City seems to have more holes to fill than a block of Swiss cheese, and most of them are on defense. They could use the pick for a tackle, and with Bryan Bulaga and Trent Williams available I'm sure they are going to take a look. They have taken defensive lineman in the first round of the last 2 drafts, selecting Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Both players came in highly regarded, but seem to be out of place in a 3-4 defense. Dan Williams is the next defensive tackle on the boards after Suh and McCoy, and Derrick Morgan is the highest rated defensive end. Rolando McClain is the highest rated linebacker, but the fifth spot may be a bit too high for all three players. If the Chiefs need an impact player for their defense, then they will take the player many see as the best player in the draft in Eric Berry.

Berry reminds many of Ed Reed. A ball hawking playmaker, he is a hitter on run support and the type of player who will make teams think twice about going over the middle. He may be a bit undersized, but I can see him filling out in the pros and becoming a stronger player in run support. With the depth available in the draft, and two picks in the second round, Kansas City needs to take the best player available, and use their later picks to build the depth on the offensive and defensive lines.

If there is a shakeup at the top of the draft, teams may be looking to trade with Kansas City for the fifth pick. If Okung does go to Detroit, and Suh or McCoy falls to the fifth spot, it would not surprise me to see a blockbuster trade along the lines of the Jets moving up from #17 to #5 in 2009 to select Mark Sanchez. San Francisco could be a trading partner, with 2 first round selections and the 49th overall selection in the 2nd round. If Suh or McCoy fall to #5, do you think Mike Singletary would love to have either one of those tackles anchoring his defense? I believe he would. Kansas City has a lot of options available to them. It will be interesting to see which one they take.

DSA Player Rankings 4.0

The 4th DSA Player Rankings are out, and there is a definite separation at the top. Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Russell Okung and Eric Berry look are the clear choice for the Top 5 of all the mock drafts I have compiled for the latest DSA's, with Bradford moving into the top spot in place of Suh. Bryan Bulaga and Trent Williams are getting a lot of looks at the 4th Overall selection if Russell Okung goes to Detroit at #2. Bulaga is steadily gaining on Jimmy Clausen for the sixth slot in the DSA's because Clausen has dropped in many mock drafts after the Redskins traded for Donovan McNabb. Williams has moved up past Joe Haden for the 8th slot, as Haden has been tabbed for a mid-teen selection and Williams has been getting looks at the 4th slot.

The biggest mover up has been Sean Weatherspoon, moving up four spots from #29 to #25. No big moves down, but Dez Bryant has been on a downward slide ever since his Pro Day Workout. The DSA Player Rankings 4.0 are:

1) Sam Bradford 2.00
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.18
3) Gerald McCoy 3.11
4) Russell Okung 3.89
5) Eric Berry 5.68
6) Jimmy Clausen 8.16
7) Bryan Bulaga 9.26
8) Trent Williams 11.00
9) Joe Haden 11.03
10) Rolando McClain 12.21
11) Derrick Morgan 12.97
12) C.J. Spiller 13.45
13) Dez Bryant 14.21
14) Dan Williams 16.16
15) Anthony Davis 16.95
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.53
17) Earl Thomas 17.55
18) Bruce Campbell 18.24
19) Sergio Kindle 21.47
20) Brandon Graham 21.61
21) Mike Iupati 22.45
22) Taylor Mays 22.50
23) Kyle Wilson 23.05
24) Jermaine Gresham 26.66
25) Sean Weatherspoon 27.32
26) Maurkice Pouncey 27.37
27) Carlos Dunlap 27.47
28) Everson Griffen 27.89
29) Brian Price 28.03
30) Ryan Mathews 28.63
31) Jared Odrick 28.87
32) Jerry Hughes 30.42
33) Golden Tate 30.68
34) Charles Brown 31.11
35) Demaryius Thomas 31.13
36) Patrick Robinson 32.13
37) Devin McCourtey 32.37
38) Arrelious Benn 32.84

With two weeks until the 2010 NFL Draft, I can see Bryan Bulaga moving in front of Jimmy Clausen in the DSA's, but one thing is becoming certain: Sam Bradford is going 1st Overall to St. Louis. You can almost say that Detroit is on the clock. Let the deliberations and arguments as to who the Lions will select begin.

Shaking up and settling down at the top of the draft

Moves involving veteran quarterbacks are shaking up and settling down the top of many draft boards for the upcoming 2010 NFL Draft. With the St. Louis Rams releasing Marc Bulger, look for Sam Bradford to not only be the 1st Overall selection, but to be signed and sealed before the draft. He is scheduled to work out for the Rams three days before the draft, but I can't see any scenario at this time where they will not select him. The one thing St. Louis cannot afford is to have a long contract negotiation that leads to a holdout. Bradford may not be ready to start from Day 1, but his development will suffer if he is not in training camp from the start.

The trade for Donovan McNabb has the Washington Redskins looking to take Russell Okung with the 4th selection, but what if Detroit pulls a shocker and takes the top rated tackle with the second pick. If this happens then you are looking for a major shakeup at the top. Tampa Bay will take either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, and Washington has a decision to make. Take the next best tackle, either Bryan Bulaga or Trent Williams, or select Albert Haynesworth's new best friend and take the premier defensive tackle not selected by the Bucs. Can you imagine Haynesworth and either Suh or McCoy in the middle of the defensive line in Washington? With no pick at the top of the second round, and the draft being as deep as it is, it might be that Washington looks to trade down if they can get a pick in the 10-15 range of the first round and a package of picks later on.

The wheeling and dealing is starting to heat up in earnest. It looks to be an interesting two weeks leading up to the 2010 NFL Draft.

DSA Player Rankings 3.0

In the latest DSA Player Rankings, the value of offensive lineman is becoming more pronounced. Bryan Bulaga has moved up past Joe Haden to the seventh slot, and Trent Williams moves up two slots to the #9 position. A number of drafts placing Bruce Campbell eighth overall to Oakland has him gaining a spot, while Russell Okung and Anthony Davis hold onto their positions. That is 5 of the top 18 players in the draft being offensive tackles. It is going to pay to be one of the big guys up front in the 2010 NFL Draft. Here are the DSA Player Rankings, Version 3.0:

1) Ndamukong Suh 1.90
2) Sam Bradford 2.27
3) Gerald McCoy 2.90
4) Russell Okung 4.2
5) Eric Berry 5.63
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.27
7) Bryan Bulaga 10.17
8) Joe Haden 10.73
9) Trent Williams 11.57
10) Rolando McClain 12.23
11) Derrick Morgan 12.77
12) Dez Bryant 13.47
13) C.J. Spiller 14.03
14) Anthony Davis 15.7
15) Dan Williams 16.57
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.07
17) Earl Thomas 17.90
18) Bruce Campbell 18.17
19) Sergio Kindle 21.83
20) T-Brandon Graham 22.20
20) T-Taylor Mays 22.20
22) Mike Iupati 22.87
23) Kyle Wilson 23.93
24) Carlos Dunlap 26.73
25) Jermaine Gresham 27.03
26) Brian Price 27.27
27) Everson Griffen 27.40
28) Maurkice Pouncey 27.63
29) Sean Weatherspoon 28.63
30) Ryan Mathews 29.30
31) Jerry Hughes 29.60
32) Jared Odrick 29.70
33) Golden Tate 30.00
34) Charles Brown 30.20
35) Demaryius Thomas 31.00
36) Arrelious Benn 32.27
37) Patrick Robinson 32.63
38) Devin McCourtey 33.17


After his Pro Day Workout, Sam Bradford is going to be the consensus 1st Overall selection. He still ranks #2 Behind Ndamukong Suh because early drafts had him going fourth or lower, while Suh has been consistently in the top 2 or 3. The next DSA Player Rankings will most likely have Bradford at the top. It will be interesting to see if there will be any more big moves up or down the board.

Tampa Bay with the 3rd Overall Selection

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2009 had an interesting year, to say the least. They started out by nearly making the playoffs in 2008, then fired their coach in Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen, the man in charge of the front office. They ushered in the Raheem Morris by moving up in the draft to select Josh Freeman, then fired the offensive coordinator before the season started. Hoping to have Freeman learn from the bench with a veteran leading the team on the field resulted in a 3 win season. All three wins were directed by Freeman, who was rushed onto the field but held his own under difficult circumstances.

Now if there is one team that is looking to reap the rewards of a draft heavy at the top and deep through the first 2 rounds, it is Tampa Bay. They own the 3rd overall selection, the 35th and and 42nd as well, the latter they picked up from Chicago in the deal for Gaines Adams. Adams, the fourth overall selection in 2007, was a bust in Tampa, then tragically passed away after the '09 season following the trade to Chicago.

Tampa Bay was last in rush defense in 2009. Needing a premier defensive tackle to stop the run. How about Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy? If St. Louis selects Sam Bradford with the first pick, then either one of these tackles will be there waiting for them. If the Rams pull a surprise and don't go with Bradford, then both Suh and McCoy will most likely be gone. Alternatives. How about Eric Berry, the dynamic, game changing safety or Russell Okung, the top rated tackle to protect their franchise quarterback in Freeman. With either scenario, they look to improve immediately.

At #35, they should be able to find a quality wide receiver for Freeman to target and to compliment Kellen Winslow, Jr. Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas, and Arrelious Benn might all be available. Seven picks later, if the Bucs are looking for more offensive weapons, perhaps Jahvid Best could be waiting for them. But one pick I believe they might look at is Brandon Spikes, the middle linebacker from Florida. Once seen as a first rounder, he has fallen out of favor due to slow 40 times at the Florida Pro Day, but he has the football instincts you need from your middle linebacker, and putting him behind Suh or McCoy would shore up the run defense immensely.

The 2010 season for Tampa Bay depends on the development of Freeman, but with their selections in the first 2 rounds, and 10 picks overall, Tampa Bay looks to be able to pick up a number of building blocks to put together a winner once again.

The Detroit Lions-Here we go again!

The Detroit Lions have the 2nd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. You could say that judging by past history they are liable to take anyone here. But the Matt Millen days are over. The selection of Matthew Stafford 1st overall in 2009 seems to make one think that a bit of sanity is returning to Detroit.

It has been said that the NFL is a copycat league. Someone has a great new innovation, then everyone starts to use it. Come up with a plan to build a franchise, and others will try the same plan if it has been successful. Detroit had a chance in 2009 to do just that, and blew it right out the window.

For years Detroit has been the butt of draft jokes for who they took high in the first round. Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams. It seemed to be a never ending list of offensive skill players that did not work out. Then inspiration came in the form of the Atlanta Falcons in 2008.

There have been very few franchises in a state of disarray as Atlanta after the 2007 season. Their coach goes pig-sooey and takes off for Arkansas before the end of the season. Their quarterback ends up in Leavenworth after conviction on dog fighting charges. But a new coach and new general manager had a plan, and it worked to a T.

With the 3rd Pick, the Falcons select Matt Ryan. Their quarterback of the future and the face of the franchise. Then they trade up to the 21st slot and take Sam Baker, offensive tackle from USC. Many people saw this as a reach. Atlanta did not. They knew Ryan needed a blind side protector, and unless they wanted a repeat of what happened with David Carr in Houston they had to move up to grab Baker.

The plan worked perfectly. The addition of Michael Turner in free agency and the revitalization of Roddy White helped make Ryan a sensation from his first pass, a 62 yard touchdown. Atlanta finished 11-5 and made the playoffs as a wild card. Injuries slowed the Falcons in 2009, but they finished with the first back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history

Detroit had the opportunity to copy Atlanta, but got it half right. The selection of Stafford seems wise, but with the 20th selection Detroit opted for Brandon Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. Pettigrew has the tools to be a great tight end, but Oher showed in his rookie season that he is a great tackle now. Injuries to Stafford in his rookie season has many people wondering why they passed on Oher when he was there for the taking.

Detroit has a lot of holes on both sides of the ball. Now there are many who say they might take Russell Okung with the 2nd overall pick in 2010. Okung has all the tools to be a great left tackle for years to come, but with the depth of lineman on both sides of the ball I can't see them passing on either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy when they can get a tackle like Charles Brown, Vladimir Ducasse, Anthony Davis or Bruce Campbell at the top of the 2nd Round. In much the same way St. Louis needs to find the best pair of picks for their team, Detroit does as well. Talents such as Suh and McCoy don't come around often. Take the player you feel can stop the opponent the best, then take the tackle who can best protect Stafford. A Win/Win for Detroit, after too many years of Loss-Loss-Loss-Loss....

Mock Drafts Galore

Everywhere you look, someone has a mock draft. I'll have one soon enough. But there are two things I have noticed when looking at the drafts posted all over the Internet. Point #1, the top picks are the top picks, no matter where you look. Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy. They are the Top 3, and will most likely go in that order to St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa Bay. Point #2, the rest of the picks are scattered from the top to the bottom, and you are not likely to see agreement on who will go where.

So I had the idea to take all the information I could from mock draft everywhere and compile that info into what I hope is a useful tool. I call it the Draft Slot Average, or DSA. It's a simple concept. Take the positions that players are projected to go at, add them together and divide it by the number of drafts they are listed in. Simple enough in theory, and for a draftnik like myself it is like being in numbers heaven.

My first DSA list has 19 players listed on all the mock drafts I researched, and another 16 that were listed on at least 50% of the mocks. Of the 19 listed on all the drafts, Taylor Mays had the lowest average at 21.00. 5 players were graded at 21.00 or better of those on the remaining boards. Of those only Bruce Campbell had a DSA more than 1 full point better that Mays, and that is due to his outstanding workout at the Combine in Indianapolis. Before then many drafts did not even have him listed as a first rounder.

More research will be added to what I have already come up with and when I get the data I am looking for I'll be posting my Mock Draft based on the DSA scores. I'll put my Mock Draft up against anyone else. Let the Draft Games begin.