DSA Player Rankings 6.0

After researching and researching mock drafts from just about any source I could find, I have accumulated 63 first round mock drafts and here are the final Draft Slot Average (DSA) Player Rankings:

1) Sam Bradford 1.65
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.19
3) Gerald McCoy 3.17
4) Russell Okung 3.86
5) Eric Berry 5.81
6) Bryan Bulaga 8.44
7) Trent Williams 9.76
8) Jimmy Clausen 10.06
9) Joe Haden 11.63
10) Rolando McClain 12.41
11) C.J. Spiller 12.94
12) Derrick Morgan 13.65
13) Dez Bryant 14.40
14) Dan Williams 15.19
15) Earl Thomas 16.11
16) Jason Pierre-Paul 16.40
17) Anthony Davis 17.98
18) Bruce Campbell 18.67
19) Brandon Graham 20.51
20) Mike Iupati 21.44
21) Sergio Kindle 22.24
22) Kyle Wilson 23.05
23) Taylor Mays 23.73
24) Jermaine Gresham 25.89
25) Maurkice Pouncey 26.05
26) Sean Weatherspoon 26.79
27) Jaerd Odrick 27.76
28) Ryan Mathews 28.33
29) Everson Griffen 28.54
30) Brian Price 29.84
31) Carlos Dunlap 30.17
32) Charles Brown 30.32

Jimmy Clausen had the biggest fall in the top of the DSA Rankings, going from 6th to 8th. Bryan Bulaga and Trent Williams both moved up a slot within the top ten. Ryan Mathews was the biggest gainer, going from 31st to 28th. Jared Odrick moved up two slots, going to 27th. Carlos Dunlap was the biggest loser in the final rankings, falling three spots to #31. I can't wait to see just how well the so-called experts are on average. As I have stated previously, I will be posting the final DSA's on the NFL.com Predict the Pick Challenge. I'll be joining the 2010 NFL Mock Draft Group, along with my own Mock Draft picks (listed as Sycamore88) If you have an entry on NFL.com good luck to you. Three days until the draft. I can't wait.

Changes to my Mock Draft

It could be a case of paralysis by analysis but I've made a couple of changes to my mock draft. I had Carlos Dunlap going to New England with the 22nd overall selection, but I have not heard any positive news and reports coming out from anyone concerning Dunlap. I believe that if Dunlap does fall to the second round, and if he performs to his potential, that someone is getting a steal.

In place of Dunlap I have the Patriots selection Jared Odrick with the 22nd pick. The more I read about him and look at his performance Odrick looks more and more like an excellent fit for New England. A tackle in college, he has the skill set to play end in a 3-4 scheme, with the quickness and burst to get to the quarterback.

With the 25th selection I have had Baltimore taking Jerry Hughes, but the more I look at the Ravens I can see them going offensive with the pick. The trade for Anquan Boldin, the signing of Donte Stallworth and the re-signing of Derrick Mason leads me to believe that they are not looking at the wide receiver position as much as some think. But they can use a tight end, with Todd Heap many years and injuries away from his last Pro Bowl season. The Bengals have had a long look at Jermaine Gresham at #21, but the tight end who is not only a tremendous pass catcher but who is regarded as the best blocking tight end in the draft is Rob Gronkowski, and I see the Ravens taking him at #25. Gronkowski would give Joe Flacco a big target, and provide blocking for Ray Rice. He should fit in well in Baltimore.

Unless there is another blockbuster trade (or 2), I believe that my Mock Draft is set, and is as follows:

1) St. Louis--Sam Bradford
2) Detroit--Ndamukong Suh
3) Tampa Bay--Gerald McCoy
4) Washington--Russell Okung
5) Kansas City--Eric Berry
6) Seattle--Bryan Bulaga
7) Cleveland--Joe Haden
8) Oakland--Bruce Campbell
9) Buffalo--Jimmy Clausen
10) Jacksonville--Derrick Morgan
11) Denver--Dez Bryant
12) Miami--Rolando McClain
13) San Francisco--Trent Williams
14) Seattle--C.J. Spiller
15) NY Giants--Dan Williams
16) Tennessee--Jason Pierre-Paul
17) San Francisco--Sergio Kindle
18) Pittsburgh--Mike Iupati
19) Atlanta--Brandon Graham
20) Houston--Kyle Wilson
21) Cincinnati--Jermaine Gresham
22) New England--Jared Odrick
23) Green Bay--Anthony Davis
24) Philadelphia--Earl Thomas
25) Baltimore--Rob Gronkowski
26) Arizona--Taylor Mays
27) Dallas--Charles Brown
28) San Diego--Ryan Mathews
29) NY Jets--Golden Tate
30) Minnesota--Devin McCourtey
31) Indianapolis--Brian Price
32) New Orleans--Sean Weatherspoon

6 days until the 2010 NFL Draft. I can't wait.

DSA Player Rankings 5.0

The DSA Player Rankings 5.0 are as solid at the top as you are going to get. The first 15 positions did not change. Byran Bulaga made the biggest advance, as he gained aver a half point on Jimmy Clausen. Clausen has been steadily falling ever since the Redskins traded for Donovan McNabb. At the lower half of the rankings the biggest movers have been Jared Odrick, Maurkice Pouncey and Charles Brown. All three players moved up two positions since the previous rankings, which shows how much teams are possibly looking for interior lineman to strengthen their offensive and defensive lines. The DSA Player Rankings 5.0 are as follows:

1) Sam Bradford 1.88
2) Ndamukong Suh 2.23
3) Gerald McCoy 3.09
4) Russell Okung 3.88
5) Eric Berry 5.65
6) Jimmy Clausen 8.40
7) Bryan Bulaga 8.88
8) Trent Williams 10.63
9) Joe Haden 11.42
10) Rolando McClain 12.28
11) Derrick Morgan 13.05
12) C.J. Spiller 13.33
13) Dez Bryant 13.95
14) Dan Williams 16.37
15) Anthony Davis 16.72
16) Earl Thomas 17.21
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 17.49
18) Bruce Campbell 18.93
19) Brandon Graham 21.37
20) Sergio Kindle 21.60
21) Mike Iupati 21.81
22) Kyle Wilson 22.86
23) Taylor Mays 22.91
24) Maurkice Pouncey 26.40
25) Jermaine Gresham 26.53
26) Sean Weatherspoon 27.47
27) Everson Griffen 28.14
28) Carlos Dunlap 28.23
29) Jared Odrick 28.49
30) Brian Price 28.72
31) Ryan Mathews 29.05
32) Charles Brown 30.67
33) Jerry Hughes 30.72
34) Demaryius Thomas 30.74


I have removed four players from the rankings, and next week I will post the final DSA Player Rankings, which will have only the top 32. I will put that list, as well as my mock draft, on NFL.com and their Predict The Pick Challenge. My mock draft is already posted. I still don't see many changes, if any, but with all the trade activity you never know.

Missing Pick

Every year I go on to NFL.com and enter in the Predict the Pick contest. No better way to put your money where your mock draft is. But I ran into a bit of a problem. I have Jerry Hughes going 25th overall to Baltimore, and for some reason he is not on the list of picks, which is supposed to cover the 64 best prospects in the draft. Jerry Hughes not one of the best 64 prospects? You have got to be kidding me.

Hughes has all the skills to be an outstanding outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, or a defensive end in a 4-3. A 2-time All American at TCU, he is rated above Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham and Everson Griffen on many draft boards. When I went to place my pick for Baltimore, I kept looking and looking and I never did spot Hughes. I thought maybe I was just too tired and worn out and I just didn't see his name on there, but I kept looking and looked again and he is not listed.

I still feel that Hughes is going to Baltimore, and I'm going to keep him in the 25th slot. Now if only NFL.com can add him on to the list of the 64 best prospects of the upcoming 2010 NFL Draft where he belongs.

A Mock Draft Redux?

I was going to post my latest Mock Draft, then it occurred to me. I can't see any changes I want to make at this time. There are some players I believe might swap spots, but for the most part what I believed before holds true for me now:

St. Louis will take Sam Bradford 1st overall, even more so after his Pro Day Workout.

Mike Shanahan feels the need to build a better offensive line is more important that taking Jimmy Clausen, since he has Jason Campbell as his quarterback and a below average line.

Seattle needs to rebuild their offensive line as well, and Bryan Bulaga is the best option at #6.

Cleveland need help at cornerback and on the line on both sides of the ball. Taking Joe Haden at #7 and selecting a quality lineman in the second round is their best option.

Oakland loves the athletic ability of Bruce Campbell enough to take him 8th overall, though they could easily take Trent Williams here as well.

Buffalo is going to do backflips when Jimmy Clausen falls to them at #9.

Denver will take Dez Bryant, because his athletic ability and the uncertainty of Brandon Marshall will make him too tough to pass on.

San Francisco gets their offensive tackle in Trent Williams, but if Oakland takes him then they will most likely take Anthony Davis or Campbell.

Pittsburgh gets some protection for Ben Roethlisberger by taking the most versatile offensive lineman in Mike Iupati.

Houston gets their replacement for Dunta Robinson by selecting Kyle Wilson.

Cincinnati beefs up their running game and gets a big target for Carson Palmer by taking Jermaine Gresham.

Philadelphia gets a safety that many see as the best in the class in Earl Thomas, but I wonder how many teams who were thinking about taking him will get scared off because of Thomas grabbing his hamstring at the end of his 40 yard dash during his pro day workout. If the Eagles get him at #24 it is going to be a steal.

Dallas is going to get a quality tackle in Charles Brown, even though he pulled up with a hamstring as well during his Pro Day 40 Yard Dash.

San Diego might take Terrence Cody to plug up the center of the defensive line, but I don't believe they see Darren Sproles as the full time back they need, and Ryan Mathews can fit the bill.

The New York Jets get another target for Mark Sanchez in taking Golden Tate.

New Orleans shores up their defense in getting Sean Weatherspoon with the final pick of the first round.

I'll be posting my final mock draft the week of the draft, but for now I don't see it changing much. But you never know.

The Un-Sexy Draft

Every year the NFL Draft seems to be defined by what you might call The Sexy Picks. Or even The Pretty Boys. You know exactly who I am referring to-the offensive skill players. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. You can even put tight ends in this group, as they seem to have the diva streak running through them at times, but any coach and quarterback can attest to their value to an offense. But it looks more and more like that the 2010 NFL Draft will be defined by The Big Uglies. The big guys up front on the offensive and defensive lines.

Since 2000, the fewest number of first round picks that were used on quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers was in 2008, when there were 7 picks, as well as 1 tight end. A breakdown of each year, the number of QBs, RBs and WRs, and the number of TEs is as follows:

YEAR QB,RB,WR TE

2009 11 1
2008 7 1
2007 10 1
2006 8 2
2005 12 1
2004 14 2
2003 9 1
2002 8 3
2001 10 1
2000 11 2


My first TMG DraftZone Mock Draft has 6 QB/RB/WR, and 1 TE. Sam Bradford to St. Louis, Jimmy Clausen to Buffalo, Dez Bryant to Denver, C.J. Spiller to Seattle, Ryan Mathews to San Diego, Golden Tate to the New York Jets, and Jermaine Gresham to Cincinnati. The first 4 are pretty much a lock to go in the first round. After that it's pretty much a crap shoot. Many posts have Demaryius Thomas going in the first round, as well as Jahvid Best and Arrelious Benn. But this is the draft for the big guys. And when you think about it, the success or failure of the draft class will be determined by the success or failure of Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen. You got to hand it to The Pretty Boys. They get all the spotlight, even if they are standing in the background.

DSA Player Rankings 2.0

The latest DSA Player Rankings are here, and it goes to show that some players pick up momentum and others fall out of favor. But the fallen are lead by the two players that seem to be dropping the fastest. Dez Bryant fell fro 8th to 13th, and Bruce Campbell went from 15th to 19th. The top of the DSA Rankings stayed the same for the first seven positions, and most mock drafts have those players going to the teams in the matching slots with the exception of Jimmy Clausen, who looks to be headed to Buffalo with the 9th over pick. But enough drafts have Clausen going to Washington at #4 to push his average higher. So here is the latest DSA Player Rankings:

1) Ndamukong Suh 1.77
2) Sam Bradford 2.73
3) Gerald McCoy 2.77
4) Russell Okung 4.14
5) Eric Berry 5.36
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.23
7) Joe Haden 10.32
8) Bryan Bulaga 10.77
9) Rolando McClain 12.00
10) Derrick Morgan 12.41
11) Trent Williams 12.68
12) C.J. Spiller 13.77
13) Dez Bryant 13.82
14) Anthony Davis 14.86
15) Dan Williams 16.82
16) Earl Thomas 17.32
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 18.41
18) Sergio Kindle 19.86
19) Bruce Campbell 20.77
20) Taylor Mays 21.95
21) Brandon Graham 22.95
22) Mike Iupati 23.18
23) Kyle Wilson 24.45
24) Brian Price 26.41
25) Carlos Dunlap 26.45
26) Everson Griffen 26.95
27) Jermaine Gresham 27.77
28) Maurkice Pouncey 27.86
29) Sean Weatherspoon 28.55
30) Jerry Hughes 28.95
31) Jared Odrick 29.32
32) Ryan Mathews 29.45
33) Golden Tate 29.64
34) Demaryius Thomas 29.82
35) Charles Brown 30.82
36) Arrelious Benn 31.91
37) Patrick Robinson 32.00
38) Devin McCourtey 33.18


Demayrius Thomas has worked onto the list as many see him moving up their boards, with Baltimore eyeing him at #25 to pair up with Anquan Boldin. One thing is certain though-there is a lot of depth in the draft at just about every position. Teams drafting late in the first round are going to get players who some people see as middle first rounders, and players looked at as late round picks are going to slide to the second round through no fault of their own. If a team is looking to draft the best player available they might not have enough time on the clock in Round 1 to make a decision.

Draft Slot Average (DSA) Player Rankings

With all of the Mock Drafts out there (including my own), it is time to reveal the very first TMG DraftZone Draft Slot Average, otherwise know as the DSA's. The first compilation had 19 players listed on all the mock drafts. That list is now down to just 16. So if you take what the draft experts are saying there are just 16 sure-fire 1st Round picks. That and a buck gets you a chicken sandwich at McDonald's.

But looking at the DSA's I can see the draft falling in line with very little variation. The top of the draft depends on whether or not the Rams take Sam Bradford, and the order of offensive tackles depends on the Raiders taking Bruce Campbell, Anthony Davis or Trent Williams with the 8th overall selection. The DSA's will get updated as more mock draft information rolls into the TMG DraftZone. So here is the player rankings and average draft slot as foretold by the DSA's:

1) Ndamukong Suh 1.71
2) Gerald McCoy 2.71
3) Sam Bradford 3.24
4) Russell Okung 4.12
5) Eric Berry 5.12
6) Jimmy Clausen 7.18
7) Joe Haden 9.42
8) Dez Bryant 11.53
9) Derrick Morgan 11.59
10) Bryan Bulaga 11.71
11) Rolando McClain 11.82
12) Trent Williams 13.18
13) Anthony Davis 14.71
14) C.J. Spiller 14.94
15) Bruce Campbell 17.12
16) Earl Thomas 17.82
17) Jason Pierre-Paul 18.00
18) Dan Williams 18.18
19) Sergio Kindle 20.88
20) Taylor Mays 22.24
21) Mike Iupati 22.76
22) Brandon Graham 23.94
23) Carlos Dunlap 24.88
24) Brian Price 25.88
25) Kyle Wilson 26.18
26) Everson Griffen 26.41
27) Jermaine Gresham 26.47
28) Jerry Hughes 27.35
29) Maurkice Pouncey 27.94
30) Golden Tate 28.41
31) Sean Weatherspoon 29.71
32) Ryan Mathews 30.35
33) Jared Odrick 30.88
34) Arrelious Benn 31.00
35) Charles Brown 31.82
36) Patrick Robinson 32.59
37) Devin McCourtey 33.24

The DSA's are computed using the average position of players in various mock drafts. If a player is not listed in the first round they are assigned a draft selection of 35, the 3rd pick of the 2nd Round. The way I see it, if a player is deemed good enough to be a first round selection, then if they are not listed in the first round they would probably go in the top of the 2nd Round. If that selection is a top 5 of the 2nd Round, the average of the top 5 picks is the 35th selection. As deep as the 2010 Draft is, it would not be surprising that any player seen as a first rounder could easily fall to Round 2. In 2009, Rey Maualuga was looked at as a mid first rounder, with many mock drafts having him going as high as #12. He fell all the way to #38, and played like a first round selection. It will be interesting to see who will be the player to fall out of Round 1 who goes out and proves everyone wrong.

TMG Draft Zone 2010 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

After much research, and consternation, it is time to post the TMG Draft Zone 2010 NFL Mock Draft 1.0.

Free Agency and trades have changed the needs of teams and shuffled the order of many other drafts already posted. Which is why it may be fashionable to have a mock draft as soon as college underclassmen declare, but not practical. I'll be tweaking my mock draft from time to time, but as soon as blogging and draft prognostication pay the bills I'll be able to change my mock draft every day.

This mock draft is very much contingent on whether Washington wants to rebuild it's offensive line with Russell Okung or take it's latest franchise quarterback in Jimmy Clausen. As much as Mike Shanahan would love to develop Clausen into the next John Elway, he also knows that he won in Denver with outstanding offensive line play. So here it is, the first TMG Draft Zone 2010 NFL Mock Draft:

1) St. Louis--Sam Bradford QB
2) Detroit--Ndamukong Suh DT
3) Tampa Bay--Gerald McCoy DT
4) Washington--Russell Okung OT
5) Kansas City--Eric Berry S
6) Seattle--Bryan Bulaga OT
7) Cleveland--Joe Haden CB
8) Oakland--Bruce Campbell OT
9) Buffalo--Jimmy Clausen QB
10) Jacksonville--Derrick Morgan DE
11) Denver--Dez Bryant WR
12) Miami--Rolando McClain ILB
13) San Francisco--Trent Williams OT
14) Seattle--C.J. Spiller RB
15) NY Giants--Dan Williams DT
16) Tennessee--Jason Pierre-Paul DE
17) San Francisco--Sergio Kindle OLB
18) Pittsburgh--Mike Iupati G
19) Atlanta--Brandon Graham DE
20) Houston--Kyle Wilson CB
21) Cincinnati--Jermaine Gresham TE
22) New England--Carlos Dunlap DE
23) Green Bay--Anthony Davis OT
24) Philadelphia--Earl Thomas S
25) Baltimore--Jerry Hughes OLB
26) Arizona--Taylor Mays S
27) Dallas--Charles Brown OT
28) San Diego--Ryan Mathews RB
29) NY Jets--Golden Tate WR
30) Minnesota--Devin McCourtey CB
31) Indianapolis--Brian Price DT
32) New Orleans--Sean Weatherspoon OLB

Looking at the draft there are 2 things that stand out. First, it is a draft for the guys in the trenches. I have 15 interior lineman, 4 linebackers and 1 tight end going in the first round. Second, it is a deep draft. Players like Maurkice Pouncey, Rodger Saffold, Vladimir Ducasse, Rob Gronkowski, Dorin Dickerson, Aaron Hernandez, Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn and Jahvid Best on offense, and Everson Griffen, Jared Odrick, Terrence Cody, Daryl Washington, Navarro Bowman, Brandon Spikes, Patrick Robinson, and Chad Jones on defense. There are going to be teams get great value with picks in the top of the 2nd Round. Because of this I foresee many teams wanting to trade down to stockpile picks, but will they find any takers. We shall see.