How the 2011 Draft Cured Panic In The Draft Room

For the longest time, many teams were hit with the same affliction this time of year. Panic In The Draft Room. It's a condition where the GM's and personnel people of NFL teams look at their depth chart and think 'We don't have a quarterback!' Since the free agency period has already started, and most good quarterbacks are under contract, the easiest cure is reaching for a quarterback in the NFL Draft. From 1998 to 2007, look how many first round quarterbacks didn't pan out. Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn. There were many more misses than hits at the position, and for the most part it can be attributed to overreaching at the position when you have too many other holes to fill. That's Panic In The Draft Room. The problem then lessened the next three years. 2008 brought Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, while 2009 featured Matthew Stafford at the top. That draft also had Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman in Round 1, and while they didn't work out in the long run, both had some success early before their team situation became toxic. 2010 had Sam Bradford at #1 Overall, and injuries have held him back but the jury is still out as to whether the Rams will pull the plug on Bradford. The other first round quarterback in 2010 was Tim Tebow. We all know how that turned out. But in those three seasons, the only real reaches were Sanchez and Tebow, both of who were traded up for to draft. It looked like Panic In The Draft Room had become dormant, at the very least. Then came the 2011 NFL Draft. Cam Newton was the presumptive #1 Pick for Carolina, and he turned out well for the Panthers. Other teams at the top that needed quarterbacks passed and selected the best player. Buffalo took Marcell Dareus. Cincinnati selected A.J. Green. Arizona picked Patrick Peterson. San Francisco took Aldon Smith. Then Panic reared it's ugly head. Tennessee shocked everyone by taking Jake Locker #8. Jacksonville traded up six spots to select Blaine Gabbert. Minnesota took the biggest leap and selected Christian Ponder at #12. You could feel the shockwaves hit the Draft Rooms, as Panic was back in town. Locker looked to be the possible #1 Overall Selection in 2010 if he had come out after his junior year. But he returned and had a subpar senior season at Washington, and all the flaws that were overlooked by his physical gifts were exposed for all too see. The only team that was a possiblity for Locker in Round 1 for 2011 looked to be his hometown Seattle Seahawks. But the Titans did away with those plans very early. Gabbert did not play in a pro style system, and didn't work out at the Combine. Playing on a bad Jacksonville team didn't help, but he was not ready to play in the NFL. And no one had Ponder going in Round 1. But the Vikings made the reach, and though Ponder took the team to the playoffs, it can be attributed to the play of Adrian Peterson more than Ponder. Teams that didn't reach in round 1 hit paydirt in Round 2. The Bengals paired up Green with Andy Dalton, and the 49ers got Colin Kaepernick with the next pick. All they have done is win. Dalton has started from Day 1 and led the Bengals to three straight playoff appearances. Kaepernick came off the bench in Year 2 and led the 49ers to the Super Bowl, and was a batted pass away from returning last season. The 2012 NFL Draft was loaded at the quarterback position. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went #1 and #2. Ryan Tannehill went #8 and he is starting to settle in to the position with Miami. Cleveland missed out on Brandon Weeden, but Seattle hit it big with Russell Wilson in Round 3. Weeden was a reach for his age more than anything, and Tannehill was lacking in experience. But even though Washington made a huge trade to get Griffin, it paid off with a division win that season. As for Luck, he is going to be one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL for many years to come. But 2012 saw the beginning of a dormant period for Panic In The Draft Room. I had boldly predicted that 5 quarterbacks would go in Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft, and only E.J. Manuel was selected. Teams looked at the quarterbacks and thought 'there are better players available, and we can get them later if we need to.' That is what happened. Geno Smith went for an early choice for #1 Overall to the second round. Mike Glennon fell to Round 3 and Matt Barkley fell all the way to Round 4. The 2014 NFL Draft season started out with some mock drafts having four quarterbacks going in the first eight picks, and I remember seeing one that had 4 of the first 5 picks being quarterbacks. But look now. Johnny Manziel may be the only one to go in the top 8 picks, and Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derek Carr are seen as possible trade up picks late in Round 1. The cure for Panic In The Draft Room is a heavy dose of a Deep Draft washed down with a little patience. But can you imagine what this draft would look like if Locker, Gabbert and Ponder had really panned out and made a big impact? Last year, there would have been at least three quarterbacks in Round 1, and even though they may not have played well, the prevailing thought would have been 'Let's give them some time' and the quarterbacks would be flying off the board early and often this year. But the three players taken in a five pick span in 2011 have been less than spectacular, and more than anything that has led to a cure for Panic In The Draft Room. Until next spring, that is.

Defining the Draft Class Part 1

Every NFL Draft class seems to be defined by the performance of the quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft. The 2011 Draft should not be any different. There were seven quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds. Each of them will get a chance to shine, either right away or down the road. How they play will determine whether this years class was stellar or lackluster.

There were four quarterbacks taken in the first twelve picks. It could be said that each one was picked out of a combination of need, panic and desperation. Cam Newton went #1 Overall to Carolina. The Panthers have two quarterbacks on their roster that they picked just last year in Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike. Matt Moore started the season as the starter, but ineffective play and injuries put him on the sideline. Clausen moved into the starting role and fared little better. Can Newton turn the tide in Carolina? If he has to play behind the same line as Moore and Clausen it will be difficult. But it could be said that Newton was taken first as the Panthers need a new face for the franchise. He will sell tickets and jerseys. He will make a 2-14 team the talk of the league. But he will need a better supporting cast and a transitional period to adapt to the NFL. One thing that not many have been talking about in regards to Newton. He is a winner. He won the JUCO National Title and NCAA Title the last two seasons. How will he handle losing? Will it be his fault or someone else's? If he starts to throw his teammates under the bus he will find a lonely locker room in Carolina.

Blaine Gabbert was seen by many as the best of the quarterback class going into the draft. But one had to wonder where he would land when Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Francisco all passed on the Missouri signal caller. I'm not sure what was more surprising: who passed on Gabbert, or who selected him. Jacksonville traded up to the #10 spot to take Gabbert. But with David Garrard under contract for a few more years, Gabbert will get a chance to sit and learn. Unless the Jaguars decide that they have seen enough average play out of Garrard and move Gabbert into the lineup. What I can envision is a similar scenario that Phillip Rivers faced in San Diego. When he was selected in 2004, Drew Brees was not putting up big numbers. But with the hot rookie commodity on the bench, Brees took his game and the Chargers to new heights. Rivers sat for two seasons. It did help his case that Brees suffered what was seen as a major shoulder injury and was a free agent. Rivers got the call in San Diego. Brees moved on to New Orleans. Now they are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If Garrard picks his game up it may be a while before Gabbert sees the light of day. But after two seasons Jacksonville may have to decide: the proven veteran, or the untested youngster. When Gabbert gets his chance will ultimately be decided by Garrard.

The other two quarterbacks selected in Round One were Jake Locker, taken #8 by Tennessee, and Christian Ponder, selected #12 by Minnesota. There are reaches in the first round of any draft, but not many brought about gasps of disbelief as these two. Locker has the athletic ability. Ponder is well suited to adjust to the pro game. But Locker has issues with accuracy, and Ponder has injury concerns. If they had been selected in either the late first or early second round there wouldn't be much talk about the picks. But both are going to teams with serious quarterback issues. Tennessee is parting ways with Vince Young. Minnesota has seen the last of Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Locker and Ponder will be starting from Day One. Their teams drafted them too high not too and, for the most part, they don't have a better option. But both quarterbacks have one thing in common. They are moving into a backfield that has a stellar running back. Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Without having to carry the full burden of the offense, it will make it easier to succeed. But not much. Locker and Ponder are going to find out how brightly the spotlight shines on the quarterback position. it's like no other position in all of sports. It defines the sport and the teams. And it will define the 2011 NFL Draft Class.

AFC South Draft Grades: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a shot at the AFC South title in 2010, but finished the season with three straight losses that led to an 8-8 record. The pass rush was one of the worst in the league, and with the multitude of defensive lineman who can get to the quarterback, the Jaguars had a chance to address that situation right away.

Jacksonville traded with Washington to move into the 10th overall slot, and with that pick the Jags picked the top rated quarterback of the draft in Blaine Gabbert. J.J. Watt and Nick Fairley were still on the board, and I'm sure many Jaguars fans are still scratching their heads. Yes, Gabbert has the potential to be a top quarterback, but Jacksonville has David Garrard under contract that was extended a couple years ago, and Gabbert does not look to move into the lineup right away. Will it pay off down the road? Most likely. Does trading up and giving away picks this year help the Jaguars in 2011? Not likely.

Trades left Jacksonville with only five picks in the 2011 Draft, and their second pick was in Round 3 with the selection of Will Rackley, a guard out of Lehigh. Rackley is a small school project, but he has the ability to develop into a quality lineman.

A late round sleeper looks to be Chris Prosinsik, a defensive back out of Wyoming selected in the 4th Round. Prosinski is a strong run support safety, and he should contribute on special teams right away.

Draft Grade: C-

Picking My Jaw Up Off The Floor

The first round of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. All I can say is 'WOW.' As I posted previously, some teams had a bit of a panic attack and reached for quarterbacks. Cam Newton will most likely win more hearts and minds in Carolina than ballgames. Jake Locker has all the athletic ability in the world, and he is going to get thrown into the fire right away in Tennessee. Unless they go out and get a veteran quarterback when the lockout is officially lifted, Minnesota is going to have a competition for the starting spot between Joe Webb and Christian Ponder. Then there is Jacksonville. When I heard they had traded up to #10 with Washington, my first thought was 'they are going to get a premier pass rusher.' Instead, they drafted the backup to David Garrard with the selection of Blaine Gabbert.

Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.

Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.

If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.

The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.

As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!

Filling Out The Depth Chart-Offense

With four days until the 2011 NFL Draft, everyone knows about the players who are going to be selected at the top of the draft. Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers and all the rest of the potential first rounders have been dissected more than a frog in a high school biology class. Although there isn't a Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh or Matthew Stafford at the top of the draft, there is more than enough depth to fill out the rosters of all 32 teams in the league.


Looking at the draft, I have targeted an offensive and defensive roster that I will be keeping an eye on to see where they are selected and what kind of an impact they make in 2011. Many have been listed as possible first rounders in a number of mock drafts, but for the most part these players look to go late second round, third or fourth round:

Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Running Back: Daniel Thomas
Running Back: DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver: Leonard Hankerson
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb
Tight End: Luke Stocker
Offensive Tackle: James Brewer
Offensive Tackle: Orlando Franklin
Offensive Guard: Clint Boling
Offensive Guard: Rodeny Hudson
Center: Stefan Wisniewski


Kaepernick has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, played in a non-pro style offense in college as did Newton, and looks to go in Round 3 where Newton will be a top 5 pick or first overall. He has his detractors who say that his game will take time to develop in the NFL, but as a later round pick he has that luxury where Newton will not. Thomas is Mr. Inside who can pound the ball between the tackles and Murray is Mr. Outside who looks to contribute as a third down specialist.

Hankerson showed his size and pass catching abilities at the Senior Bowl, and I believe he could sneak up into the early second round. Cobb is the versatile playmaker who has played quarterback, wide receiver and running back. A team looking for their Offensive Weapon similar to Dexter McCluster will find a place for Cobb. Stocker is a big target at 6'6" with very good hands.

Brewer is a man mountain who looks to fit in at right tackle or possibly guard, and Franklin looks to play the right side as well. Hudson and Boling both could use a little more size and strength to play the interior but have the talent needed to play in the NFL. Wisniewski is the top rated center with a very high football IQ who can play guard or center, but who could also use a little more size at this time.

I'll post my Defensive Depth Chart tomorrow. The 2011 NFL Draft is four days away. I'm looking forward to seeing who will be going where and how they fit into their new teams' systems. That's what the NFL Draft is all about.

Franchising in the 2nd Round

Going into the NFL Draft, teams that don't already their franchise quarterback are on the lookout for one. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and is also the face of the franchise. Selecting the right player can put a franchise on the path to greatness. The wrong pick can set a team back for years.

The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.

There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.

Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.

Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.

The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.

The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.

Settling at the top

Trying to prognosticate the 2011 NFL Draft is like tossing a balloon into a tornado and trying to figure out where it's going to land. You can make a good guess, but that's about all it is. A guess. But by looking at the mock drafts that have been coming out lately, you can see quite a bit of settlement at the top of the draft.

Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.

It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.

At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.

Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.

Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.

Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.

It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.

DSA Player Rankings 3.0

March Madness has arrived. I've been watching Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and the games are as exciting as ever. My brackets are shot to hell, but I'll keep rooting for my picks anyway.

The NFL Draft process could very well be described as madness, as witnessed by the newest DSA Player Rankings. As I blogged earlier, quarterbacks are moving up as teams put a premium on selecting their franchise signal caller. Cam Newton moved up five spots to take over the #1 position, and Blaine Gabbert also moved up 5 positions. Nick Fairley fell five spots to number 7, and he has done nothing to hurt his draft stock through his workouts. He was good at the NFL Scouting Combine, and even better at the Auburn Pro Day. What this might result in will be Fairley playing with a chip on his shoulder in the same way that Warren Sapp played after falling to #12 in the 1995 NFL Draft. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0:

DSA Rankings 3.0 Plus
Minus

1) Cam Newton 5
2) Da'Quan Bowers (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 5
4) Marcel Dareus 3
5) A.J. Green (2)
6) Patrick Peterson (2)
7) Nick Fairley (5)
8) Von Miller (3)
9) Prince Amukamara 0
10) Robert Quinn 0
11) Julio Jones 1
12) Cameron Jordan 2
13) Mark Ingram 3
14) Tyron Smith 4
15) J.J, Watt (4)
16) Aldon Smith 3
17) Ryan Kerrigan (4)
18) Nate Solder (3)
19) Anthony Castanzo 2
20) Gabe Carimi 3
21) Adrian Clayborn (4)
22) Jimmy Smith 5
23) Mike Pouncey 1
24) Justin Houston (2)
25) Corey Liuget 1
26) Jake Locker (1)
27) Derek Sherrod 7
28) Akeem Ayers (8)
29) Muhammad Wilkerson 11
30) Brandon Harris 0
31) Ryan Mallett 0
32) Cameron Heyward (4)
33) Phil Taylor 0
34) Stephen Paea 1
35) Torrey Smith 3
36) Aaron Williams 6
37) Jonathon Baldwin (5)
38) Danny Watkins 5
39) Mikel Leshoure (10)
40) Martez Wilson
41) Lance Kendricks
42) Orlando Franklin
43) Rahim Moore
44) Leonard Hankerson
45) Benjamin Ijalana (4)
46) Brooks Reed


Another gainer at the top is Marcell Dareus, who is being seen by many as a better pro prospect than Fairley, and it could very well be that these two become the Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy of 2011. One thing is certain though: it is a very deep draft, and with no lock for the #1 pick, the NFL Draft version of March Madness will most surely become April Madness in draft rooms everywhere.

Panic in the Draft Rooms

Now that Pro Days have kicked into high gear on campuses across the land, it is also the time of year that one word starts to creep into draft rooms of NFL teams. Panic.

The panic comes from teams not having a franchise quarterback. Plain and simple. When mock drafts started to be released even before the Super Bowl, Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton were seen as potential #5-#15 picks, with Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett late first or even second round picks. Their performances at the combine, one would think, didn't endear the top quarterbacks to many teams. Gabbert didn't throw. Newton couldn't hit water if he were standing on a pier. Mallett answered questions at his media interviews as if he were running for office. Locker had the best overall workout, but there are accuracy questions from his senior season that still linger. After all, what top of the draft quarterback goes into the second half of his bowl game before completing a pass?

Now Pro Days have begun. Quarterbacks can show off their wares to teams under controlled and scripted workouts. Throw to receivers they are familiar with. Work with coaches that know them and their routine. And the biggest benefit of all-NFL teams start to panic and tell themselves 'We need a quarterback. We need a quarterback. We need a quarterback.'

So the Post-Combine mock drafts that are coming out are more and more putting either Gabbert or Newton at the first overall pick of the Carolina Panthers, third to Buffalo, and fourth to Cincinnati. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee and Washington are also looking for quarterbacks within the top ten. So when panic sets in at NFL Drafts Rooms, quarterbacks rise to the top of the boards.

The player who is going to benefit the most may be Ryan Mallett. Character issues are still following him, but there is no denying his talent. Of the four top quarterbacks, he is by far the most pro ready. Played in a pro style/non-spread offense, and has the best arm. A team that cannot draft Gabbert, Newton or Locker is going to trade up into the first round and grab Mallett. Which means the team that drafts Mallett is going to have a very solid piece of the puzzle in place from the top of the first round and then select their quarterback. The question is: Which team is going to panic the least and wait for the draft to unfold? We shall see.

Early Returns

The first wave of Post-Super Bowl 2011 NFL Mock Drafts are starting to roll in, and here are some early observations from the Mock Draft information I have gathered so far:

Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.

Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.

Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.

Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.

There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.

Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.

There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.


I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.

Shaking up the top of the draft

It has been reported today that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer plans to demand a trade or he will retire. The last time a star player on the Bengals demanded a trade was Chad Johnson in 2008, and Mike Brown did not budge. Even after the Washington Redskins offered 2 first round picks for the star receiver. Brown held firm to his belief that the player should honor the contract.

So if Palmer does end up retiring, what does this mean for the 2011 NFL Draft? It means that Cincinnati will be looking for a quarterback, and if they take one that high it will be a stretch. Their depth chart has Jordan Palmer as the backup, and Dan LeFevour at No. 3. If you are going to say that the Bengals can win with either one of those two leading the offense then you are the most eternal of optimists. Jordan Palmer may be Carson's brother, but there is a reason he has bounced around the league. Listing him as a backup is a stretch. LeFevour was drafted by Chicago in 2010, and was released. He was a spread offense quarterback in college, but has not taken a snap in the pros. He may eventually become a good NFL quarterback, but I don't think anyone sees it happening in 2011.

So the Bengals, who should have been targeting A.J. Green or Da'Quan Bowers with the 4th overall selection, now may be looking for a quarterback. Consensus of opinion has Blaine Gabbert as the most pro ready prospect, but he is not nearly the polished talent Palmer was coming out of USC. And the Bengals sat Palmer his entire rookie season after taking him first overall in 2003.

But I believe the player Cincinnati may need for the quarterback position for more than one reason is Cam Newton. The Bengals have an offensive line built for the run. Palmer has spent the last 3 seasons getting battered and bruised, and the most mobile option may be the best one. Also, Cincinnati has had trouble selling tickets. Getting the Heisman Trophy winner would be a PR coup that could help the small market Bengals attract more fans into the stands. Newton would benefit from the Bengals re-signing Cedric Benson, and with a solid running game and a stable of good young receivers, there might not be as much pressure right away on Newton.

As talented as Newton is, 4th overall might be too high. The answer would be to trade down. But Mike Brown has not been known to make many draft trades, and his last big draft trade was to move up to #1 and select Ki-Jana Carter in 1995. Carter then blew out his knee on his second preseason carry, and his career was effectively over. If Carson Palmer retires, they will need to get a quality quarterback to replace him. If they do not get one of the four top prospects by the time they make the 35th pick of the draft, it could be a long, long, long season in Cincinnati.

Mock Drafts starting to roll

Mock Drafts for the 2011 NFL Draft have been coming out for a while now. Even back in November and December. But I've always been one to wait. Wait for the underclassmen to declare and wait for the Super Bowl so that the draft order is finalized. But today was the day that mock drafts became somewhat official, as Mel Kiper, Jr on ESPN and Charles Davis on NFL Network put out their first mock drafts.

My exclusive Draft Slot Average is based on player draft positions accumulated from many mock drafts, but that information will not be collected until after the Super Bowl. But it is interesting to see just how varied the early mocks are at this time.

The three most popular 1st Overall picks are A.J. Green, Nick Fairley, and Da'Quan Bowers. But I've seen Blaine Gabbert going first overall as well. Ryan Mallett going anywhere from 5th all the way down to 27th. Robert Quinn at 3rd overall down to the 25th pick. Stephen Paea from 8th to not even in the first round. The variations from one mock draft to another is unbelieveable. Which goes to show just how deep the draft is again this year.

In 2010, Sam Bradford was the solid choice to go #1 after his workout, and he moved into the top spot of my DSA player rankings with Ndamukong Suh the choice for second overall and Gerald McCoy third off the board. These choices held true, but in 2011 there looks to be such wide divisions in who will go where in the top 10 that I can see my DSA's going all over the board. So let the mock draft season begin, and I'll have my own posted the week after the Super Bowl and my first DSA rankings soon thereafter.

Quarterbacks and more Quarterbacks

The NFL Playoffs are down to 4, with the New York Jets pulling off the upset at New England. If you look at the remaining teams, it shows how much teams value the quarterback position. Ben Roethlisberger is the old man of the group, coming into the league in 2004. He has won 2 Super Bowls, and is now making his fourth appearance in the AFC Championship Game. You can say what you want about his off-field problems, but Big Ben is the rock that the Steelers have built their foundation on. Remember all the talk at the beginning of the season about Pittsburgh trading Roethlisberger away because of all the problems and the bad light it put the franchise in? You don't hear much about that anymore, do you?

Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 with the thought that he would eventually replace Brett Favre. He sat and watched for three season, then Favre announced his retirement after the Packers loss in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers was made the starter, and when Favre announced he was coming back, the Packers did what many considered unthinkable and traded the Packer legend to the Jets. Rodgers has led the Packers to the playoffs the last two seasons, and was nearly perfect in a dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday. Packer fans may have felt the front office was out of their minds to trade Favre. I don't think too many feel that way now.

The Chicago Bears looked like they might be mortgaging their future a bit when they traded for Jay Cutler. The move left them with no picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft, and though he has ability to burn, Cutler had yet to prove himself a winner in Denver. His first season in Chicago saw Cutler getting intercepted at an alarming rate, and winding up on his backside just as often. But the arrival of Mike Martz has had a tremendous effect on Cutler, and this weekend he became the first quarterback to throw for 2 touchdowns and run for 2 in the same game since Otto Graham. He is now one game away from leading the Bears to the Super Bowl.

The New York Jets traded up with Cleveland to select Mark Sanchez with the 5th Overall selection of the 2009 NFL Draft. Combined with Coach Rex Ryan, they have given the Jets a swagger and confidence that the franchise has not had for years, and now they have won 4 road playoff games in their first two seasons. After getting handily beaten in December by the Patriots, the Jets went into Foxboro and knocked off the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. Now they are one game away from leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl since another quarterback with an excess of confidence, Joe Namath, led New York to victory in Super Bowl III.

Quarterback is the most important position in team sports. Next weekend, four quarterbacks that their teams have trusted with the keys to the franchise will try to drive them to the ultimate destination, the Super Bowl. With the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft, teams will be looking for find the quarterback that can lead their teams to the same destination. Will it be Ryan Mallett? Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, or Jake Locker? Or will it be a diamond in the rough like Tom Brady? Only time, and Lombardi Trophies, will tell the whole story.

Carolina has no Luck at all

Andrew Luck has made his decision, and he is remaining at Stanford. The 2011 NFL Draft has lost it's brightest star, but there is still plenty of talented players on the board and yet to declare. Now the Carolina Panthers have a franchise altering decision to make. Do they use the 1st Overall Selection of the draft on a quarterback, or do they believe that Jimmy Clausen or Matt Moore is the answer and go in another direction.

The top four quarterbacks are Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. I believe that Carolina will see their two incumbents and say that they are better off with Clausen and Moore. So it looks like they may be headed to shoring up the defense.

When Carolina came off of a 1-15 season in 2001, their first draft pick the next year was Julius Peppers. Peppers was a freak at the defensive end position. Tall enough to play basketball in college, and strong and fast enough to consistently pressure quarterbacks in the NFL. He was the cornerstone of the Panthers defense that made it to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and earned the #2 Seed in the NFC after the 2008 season. But Peppers left for Chicago via free agency, and though Charles Johnson emerged as a pass rushing threat, the Panthers defense still ranked near the bottom of the league.

The NFL is a quarterback driven league. You need one to lead the offense, and you need to get to the other teams' quarterback to stop the opposition. If the Panthers do not get Johnson help on at the other end, he will face more and more double teams and his production will drop. So with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers select...Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end fro Clemson.

Bowers was all but unblockable last season at Clemson. 24 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. If he were paired with Johnson the Panthers would have a pass rushing duo that compares favorably to a younger version of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in Indianapolis. If Bowers can translate his success at Clemson to the NFL he coudl very easily be the taken at the top of the draft.

Carolina has 3 and a half months to determine if they player they are going to select will have the impact that Julius Peppers had 9 years ago. The right decision get them out of the cellar. The wrong decision keeps them on the clock for the 2012 NFL Draft. We shall see.

#1 With A Bullet

After his performance in the Orange Bowl, Andrew Luck all but cemented his status as the first overall selection in the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. Now there are two big questions surrounding the selection of Luck. Will Carolina hold onto the pick, and will Luck enter the draft.

Carolina has a lot of needs, as most 2-14 teams have, and the big question is do they believe in either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. There are a lot of teams that need a quarterback, and with the depth at the position this year they may feel that their future franchise quarterback can be found later in the first round. But Luck is as good of a quarterback prospect since Troy Aikman. Accurate, smart, and pro ready. But with Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton in this draft, the Panthers may decide that if someone offers a Ricky Williams blockbuster deal that it would be too good to pass up with all of their needs on both sides of the ball.

But what may be the bigger question is whether Luck will enter the draft at all. And there are three words that may determine his entry: Collective Bargaining Agreement. Luck is a sophomore eligible, so he has 2 years remaining in college if he decides to stay. The NFL and it's players association appear to be heading for a standoff, and there is a very good chance that a long lockout will ensue. If it looks like there may not be pro football next season, Luck may stay in school, where he knows that Stanford will suit up in 2011. The deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th. Luck has eleven days to make up his mind. He is living his own version of an old country song. Heads Carolina. Tails California. We shall see.