2014 NFL Draft Grades: NFC South

2013 proved once again that the NFC South is the most topsy-turvy division in football. The Atlanta Falcons went from the best record in the NFC in 2012 to last in the South with a 4-12 record. The Carolina Panthers overcame a 1-3 start to win the division and get a first round bye in the playoffs. The New Orleans Saints still have the best quarterback in the division with Drew Brees, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the biggest splashes in the off season during free agency. It looks like things are going to keep flipping around in the NFC South once again. Atlanta Falcons: B+ Best Pick: Jake Matthews Late Round Sleeper: DeVonta Freeman The Falcons needed to shore up the offensive line and give Matt Ryan more time to pass and open holes to run through, and they did just that with the selection of Jake Matthews at #6 Overall. Matthews is a polished product and will step in right away. Ra'Shede Hageman could do the same on defense after falling out of Round 1. With the best years of Steven Jackson behind him, the running game got a hot in the arm with the selection of late round sleeper pick DeVonta Freeman, who played in a three back rotation at Florida State but he can be the go to back for the Falcons. Carolina Panthers: B Best Pick: Kelvin Benjamin Late Round Sleeper: Tyler Gaffney The Panthers came out of nowhere to win the division in 2013, but there are major holes everywhere, especially on the offensive line and wide receiver. The pick of Kelvin Benjamin addresses the need at receiver. The offensive line got help in Round 3 with the pick of Trai Turner, but he will play guard and tackle is still a need. Second rounder Kony Ealy adds depth to the pass rush. A late round sleeper looks to be Tyler Gaffney, running back who could get touches if injuries crop up again in the backfield. New Orleans Saints: B Best Pick: Brandin Cooks Late Round Sleeper: Vinnie Sunseri The Saints traded up to #20 and got the speed receiver they wanted in Brandin Cooks, who should take advantage of the fast turf in the Superdome in the high powered New Orleans offense. The Saints are hoping that second round pick Stanley Jean-Baptiste can become the cover corner that his size and speed could lead him to be, but he needs time to develop his overall game at corner. A late round sleeper looks to be Vinnie Sunseri, a tough safety who could pair with last years first rounder Kenny Vaccaro to give New Orleans a top tandem in the defensive secondary. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B+ Best Pick: Austin Sefarian-Jenkins Late Round Sleeper: Robert Herron The Buccaneers stood pat at #7 Overall and got the receiver they wanted in Mike Evans, then got the big tight end who will free up coverage in the middle with the selection of Sefarian-Jenkins in Round 2. Third Rounder Charles Sims will be able to share the load with Doug Martin and could eventually become a full-time back. A late round sleeper could be Robert Herron, a slot receiver who will benefit for all the attention given to Evans, Sefarian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson.

TMG DraftZone 2013 NFL Draft Grades: NFC South

The revolving door of NFC South Champions swung back to Atlanta, as the Falcons came up just short in the NFC title game against San Francisco. Their deal in 2011 to acquire Julio Jones for a truckload of draft picks is looking to be very wise. Jones has become one of the league's most dangerous deep threats, and the Falcons look to make another run at the Super Bowl with Matt Ryan at the helm. The New Orleans Saints are coming off of a lost season following the sactions imposed due to the bounty scandal. But coach Sean Payton returns, and he still has Drew Brees at quarterback. But the Saints defense fell flat on their face last year, and the hope is that first round pick Kenny Vaccaro can shore up the secondary. Tampa Bay made a move back last year, but I look for the Bucs to have a rebound season. They traded their first round pick for Darrelle Revis, and in Round 2 they selected Johnathon Banks to play corner as well. If Josh Freeman can work his way back to his 2011 form the Bucs will give the Falcons and Saints a run for the top spot in the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers are also looking to their young quarterback to lead them up the ladder. Cam Newton started slow, and there were issues with maturity, but the Panthers finished well in the last half of the season. A long term replacement for WR Steve Smith was not found in the draft, and Carolina could have trouble scoring unless the veteran wideout can keep playing as he has the last few years. So here is the TMG DraftZone 2013 NFL Draft Grades for the NFC South, with key selections and sleeper picks listed as well: Atlanta: B Desmond Trufant (CB) Zeke Motta (S) Atlanta traded up again, but not nearly as far this year as they did in 2011. They will be looking for Trufant to move into a starting corner spot right away, and if he can handle the responsibility then the Falcons will reap the rewards. Atlanta went defense for all but two picks, taking a tight end in Round 4 and a quarterback in Round 7, and with the focus on defense the Falcons may have found another impact player for the secondary in Zeke Motta. A physical safety, Motta will be able to help stop the run cover the middle for Atlanta. Carolina: B+ Star Lotulelei (DT) Kenjon Balmer (RB) The Panthers went defensive tackle in Round 1 and 2, and picked up Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short. Lotulelei was seen by many as perhaps the best player in the draft, and he fell all the way to #14 because of health concerns. But Lotulelei received a clean bill of health, and he will team with Short to build a formidable front wall for the Panthers. Balmer may be a bit undersized, but get him in the open field and he is a top flight playmaker. One scouting report stated that Balmer needs to work on his pass protection. He may, but if Balmer is in the game I don't see him in the backfield to block. If he is lined up in the backfield, he will be in space in no time at all to get his hands on the ball. New Orleans: B+ Terron Armstead (OT) Jon Jenkins (DT) The Saints had to forfeit their second round pick due to the bounty scandal, but they made their picks count. Vaccaro will be a starter right away, and the secondary will be better for it. But the Saints lost Jarrod Bushrod in free agency, and Armstead may be called on to play earlier than Nwe Orleans might like. He is physically gifted, but played against lower level competition in college. Can he meet the challenge of left tackle in the NFL? The Saints are hoping so. New Orleans got one of the steals of the draft in Jenkins, being able to select him in Round 3. His weight may have ballooned up, bu the has gotten back in better shape, and Jenkins is a prototype nose tackle in a 3-4 who can plug up the middle and snuff out the run game. Tampa Bay: B- Johnathon Banks (CB) William Gholston (DE) Banks didn't measure out well at the NFL Scouting Combine, but his play did on the field. Banks is a ball hawk who is always a threat to pick off a pass. The Bucs have invested a lot of high draft picks in defensive lineman the last three years, and Gholston may get a chance due to a lack of production and injury concerns. Josh Freeman is coming to the end of his contract, and if he does not produce this year, Mike Glennon may get his chance lat in the season if the Bucs are out of contention.

NFC South Draft Grades: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers held the first overall selection of the 2011 NFL Draft, and to no surprise they picked Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback out of Auburn. But even then, there was skepticism concerning the pick.

Newton has all the tools to be a top level quarterback in the NFL. He also has the liabilities that can hold him back. He has size, speed, arm strength and looks like he was chiseled by Michelangelo out of solid marble. But he comes to the pros out of a spread offense, where his accuracy was questionable at times and he was as dependent on his running as his passing to succeed. Running quarterbacks take a beating in the NFL, and with the holes in the Panthers line just how much will Newton be able to take.

The Panthers also have Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, and the second round pick from 2010, while he never did look comfortable on the field, didn't really get a chance either. He went into the season second on the depth chart behind Matt Moore. Which means he did not get the lion's share of reps during training camp or play with the first string in the preseason. It will be interesting to see who looks the best this coming season for the Panthers.

The Panthers did not have a pick in Round 2 due to a trade the previous draft, but they got help for the defense later in Round 3. Terrell McClain and Sione Fua are both defensive tackles and could have an opportunity to play right away.

A late round sleeper looks to be Lee Ziemba, an offensive tackle out of Auburn. Zeimba was a four year starter in college, and could move into the starting lineup as the Panthers line gave up 50 sacks in 2010.

Draft Grade: C

Draft Trade Regrets and the Binary Stars

I wonder how much regret the Carolina Panthers have now concerning the draft day trade they made with New England last season. You know they would not admit to it, but there has to be some in there somewhere.

Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.

Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.

We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.

In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.

Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.

Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.

The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.

If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.

Top of the Draft

Before the 2010 NFL Draft, there was a growing consensus as to who was going to be the Number One over all selection. After Sam Bradford worked out for scouts and was given the medical seal of approval, it was only a matter of waiting until draft day before the pick was made official. In 2011, the Carolina Panthers have the top choice, but it is far from certain who they will take.

I have already made the argument for Da'Quan Bowers, the defensive end from Clemson. If his game can translate to the professional level, he would make a devastating tandem of pass rushers with Charles Johnson. If a defense can put pressure on the quarterback and throw him off on his timing, it can help to cover up weaknesses in the back seven. Carolina is solid on defense, and a player such as Bowers will only make them better.

A pass rusher like Bowers can help stop a quarterback. A defensive tackle like Nick Fairley from Auburn is seen by many as being the key to stopping the running game and the anchor to the entire front seven. Ndamukong Suh showed how a tackle with tremendous athletic ability and a nasty streak can take over a defense. Suh will be one of the best in the league for a long time. Fairley is seen as having many of the same attributes. He is strong enough to stop the run up the middle and athletic enough to rush the quarterback. New Panthers head coach Ron Rivera was the defensive coordinator with the Chicago Bears and that defense was strong up the middle with Tommie Harris at tackle and Brian Urlacher. The Panthers could build a similar foundation with Fairley and Jon Beason.

But the majority of Carolina's problems lay on the offensive side of the ball. Injuries hit opening day quarterback Matt Moore, running backs Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and wide receiver Steve Smith. Jimmy Clausen didn't get the reps in pre-season that he would have needed, and it was very much a trial by fire. His main target is Smith, but he is developing the same problem that all receivers who rely on speed come down with. He is getting older. To take pressure off of Smith and to give Clausen a new primary target the Panthers could very well select A.J. Green from Georgia with the first pick. Green reminds many of Calvin Johnson, a talent of tremendous abilities and great hands. Green is the offensive playmaker that Carolina needs. But it remains to be seen if they will go that way on draft day.

#1 With A Bullet

After his performance in the Orange Bowl, Andrew Luck all but cemented his status as the first overall selection in the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. Now there are two big questions surrounding the selection of Luck. Will Carolina hold onto the pick, and will Luck enter the draft.

Carolina has a lot of needs, as most 2-14 teams have, and the big question is do they believe in either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. There are a lot of teams that need a quarterback, and with the depth at the position this year they may feel that their future franchise quarterback can be found later in the first round. But Luck is as good of a quarterback prospect since Troy Aikman. Accurate, smart, and pro ready. But with Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton in this draft, the Panthers may decide that if someone offers a Ricky Williams blockbuster deal that it would be too good to pass up with all of their needs on both sides of the ball.

But what may be the bigger question is whether Luck will enter the draft at all. And there are three words that may determine his entry: Collective Bargaining Agreement. Luck is a sophomore eligible, so he has 2 years remaining in college if he decides to stay. The NFL and it's players association appear to be heading for a standoff, and there is a very good chance that a long lockout will ensue. If it looks like there may not be pro football next season, Luck may stay in school, where he knows that Stanford will suit up in 2011. The deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th. Luck has eleven days to make up his mind. He is living his own version of an old country song. Heads Carolina. Tails California. We shall see.

Draft Grades: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers entered the 2010 NFL Draft without a first round selection, and came away with a top 10 talent. Without having to trade up, the Panthers were able to select Jimmy Clausen with the 48th overall selection. Matt Moore played well down the stretch in 2009, but I can't help but think of Derek Anderson with Cleveland in 2007. Came out of nowhere, played very well down the stretch, but never did play up to those lofty numbers again. Moore may be able to, but with Clausen in the mix Carolina has a valuable insurance policy.

Carolina was also able to take a highly regarded receiver in Brandon LaFell, who will help take pressure off of Stave Smith. Greg Hardy has potential, but he needs to play up to that potential. Too many hot and cold moments coming out of college. The two puzzling picks are Armanti Edwards and Tony Pike. Edwards played quarterback in college, and is seen as a receiver with wildcat capabilities. With Clausen in the fold taking Pike can only be seen as a luxury pick in case Moore does not pan out.

Eric Norwood is seen as a sleeper pick in the 4th round, with his abilities as a pass rusher and his overall football instincts. If he develops he can help offset the loss of Julius Peppers in free agency.

Draft Grade: B-