Showing posts with label Marcell Dareus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marcell Dareus. Show all posts

Monday, May 2, 2011

AFC East Draft Grades: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills come off of a 4-12 season in 2010, and held the third overall selection of the 2011 NFL Draft. The offense was good last season, but the defense needed the most help. And the Bills hit the mark with their first two picks. Marcell Dareus is an athletic defensive tackle who can both stop the run and pressure the passer effectively. But their second round pick may turn out to be just as valuable. Aaron Williams is a solid corner who can also play safety. The Buffalo secondary got lit up way too much last season, and Williams looks to be a solid piece to the defensive puzzle. Third round pick Kelvin Sheppard is an athletic linebacker who can play inside and outside.

Buffalo helped the defense through the draft, but quarterback was a position that they should have addressed at some time. Ryan Mallett was available when the Bills picked Sheppard, but Arizona also passed on the Arkansas quarterback in the third round. Both teams need help at the position and passed. That may say what you need to know about Mallett. Buffalo has said that Ryan Fitzpatrick is their guy at quarterback, and they will go into 2011 with the Harvard grad calling the shots under center.

A late round sleeper for the Bills looks to be Chris Hairston, an offensive lineman selected in the fourth round. Buffalo's offensive line has had issues since Jason Peter went to Philadelphia, and it may not be long before Hairston her a chance. He has the size, strength and athletic ability to make an impact on an offensive line that has been thin at times.

Draft Grade: B

Friday, April 22, 2011

Draft Trade Regrets and the Binary Stars

I wonder how much regret the Carolina Panthers have now concerning the draft day trade they made with New England last season. You know they would not admit to it, but there has to be some in there somewhere.

Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.

Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.

We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.

In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.

Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.

Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.

The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.

If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Trench Warfare

It is a long held belief that games in the NFL are won and lost in the trenches. You can say what you want about quarterbacks, and don't get me wrong, it is the most important position in all of team sports, but the guys up front I call The Big Uglies are going to rule the 2011 NFL Draft.

Looking at the mock drafts I have been gathering information from for my DSA Player Rankings, there could very easily be up to 20 offensive and defensive lineman selected in the first round. The skill players get the press, but the coaches and general managers know what side their bread is buttered on. And it's never buttered when their own quarterback is on his backside and when the opponent's is not on his.

Protect the quarterback. You hear it all the time. You can't win if your quarterback is getting hit and does not have time to throw the ball. Offensive lineman, and particularly tackles, are always in high demand. All I've been hearing is how there isn't a franchise left tackle in the draft. There may not be, but there are six offensive lineman who appear to be solidly in the first round. Anthony Castonzo, Tyron Smith, Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, and Mike Pouncey look to be safe bets to have their names called on Day One. Danny Watkins is moving up a lot of draft boards and has an excellent chance to be a first rounder. Solder is the biggest project of the bunch but may have the most upside with his size and athletic ability. The others could start right away, and with the lockout still in effect teams will be drafting for need, they most likely will line up from the start.

The defensive line is as deep as it ever has been. The tackles that are almost certain to go in the first round include Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, and Corey Liuget, with Marvin Austin and Phil Taylor strong possibilities as well. As much as teams rely on the pass, if you can't stop the run you are in a world of trouble. All five tackles can clog up the middle, with Dareus and Fairley the best at putting pressure up the middle and getting to the quarterback.

The defensive ends are the reason the 2011 NFL Draft is as deep as it is. There are nine ends that teams are looking at to rush the quarterback and put him down. Da'Quan Bowers was long considered the best of the class until injury concerns started to creep up. Even so, he is still considered a top 25 pick, and it is possible that he will be the last of the nine selected. Robert Quinn, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers. Quarterbacks are going to be watching the draft and cringing with the thought that a division rival has taken a pass rusher and that he will have to face him twice a year. Now all the defensive lineman have to figure out is how to get by the offensive lineman selected in the first round as well. The chess match is about to begin. Chess played on a gridiron with The Big Uglies.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Settling at the top

Trying to prognosticate the 2011 NFL Draft is like tossing a balloon into a tornado and trying to figure out where it's going to land. You can make a good guess, but that's about all it is. A guess. But by looking at the mock drafts that have been coming out lately, you can see quite a bit of settlement at the top of the draft.

Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.

It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.

At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.

Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.

Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.

Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.

It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

DSA Player Rankings 4.0

It's amazing how players can fall into and out of favor the closer the NFL Draft approaches. This year, the big mover up has been Marcell Dareus, and the faller has been Da'Quan Bowers. A month ago, Dareus was ranked 7th in the DSAs, with an average score of 6.00. In that same rankings, Bowers was 1st with an average of 1.70. Oh, how things have changed. Dareus is now #1, and Bowers has fallen all the way to 9th. And if questions concerning his knee are not answered soon, he is likely to fall even more.

Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.

I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.

DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011

Rank Player Average Plus/Minus

1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)

Thursday, March 17, 2011

DSA Player Rankings 3.0

March Madness has arrived. I've been watching Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and the games are as exciting as ever. My brackets are shot to hell, but I'll keep rooting for my picks anyway.

The NFL Draft process could very well be described as madness, as witnessed by the newest DSA Player Rankings. As I blogged earlier, quarterbacks are moving up as teams put a premium on selecting their franchise signal caller. Cam Newton moved up five spots to take over the #1 position, and Blaine Gabbert also moved up 5 positions. Nick Fairley fell five spots to number 7, and he has done nothing to hurt his draft stock through his workouts. He was good at the NFL Scouting Combine, and even better at the Auburn Pro Day. What this might result in will be Fairley playing with a chip on his shoulder in the same way that Warren Sapp played after falling to #12 in the 1995 NFL Draft. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0:

DSA Rankings 3.0 Plus
Minus

1) Cam Newton 5
2) Da'Quan Bowers (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 5
4) Marcel Dareus 3
5) A.J. Green (2)
6) Patrick Peterson (2)
7) Nick Fairley (5)
8) Von Miller (3)
9) Prince Amukamara 0
10) Robert Quinn 0
11) Julio Jones 1
12) Cameron Jordan 2
13) Mark Ingram 3
14) Tyron Smith 4
15) J.J, Watt (4)
16) Aldon Smith 3
17) Ryan Kerrigan (4)
18) Nate Solder (3)
19) Anthony Castanzo 2
20) Gabe Carimi 3
21) Adrian Clayborn (4)
22) Jimmy Smith 5
23) Mike Pouncey 1
24) Justin Houston (2)
25) Corey Liuget 1
26) Jake Locker (1)
27) Derek Sherrod 7
28) Akeem Ayers (8)
29) Muhammad Wilkerson 11
30) Brandon Harris 0
31) Ryan Mallett 0
32) Cameron Heyward (4)
33) Phil Taylor 0
34) Stephen Paea 1
35) Torrey Smith 3
36) Aaron Williams 6
37) Jonathon Baldwin (5)
38) Danny Watkins 5
39) Mikel Leshoure (10)
40) Martez Wilson
41) Lance Kendricks
42) Orlando Franklin
43) Rahim Moore
44) Leonard Hankerson
45) Benjamin Ijalana (4)
46) Brooks Reed


Another gainer at the top is Marcell Dareus, who is being seen by many as a better pro prospect than Fairley, and it could very well be that these two become the Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy of 2011. One thing is certain though: it is a very deep draft, and with no lock for the #1 pick, the NFL Draft version of March Madness will most surely become April Madness in draft rooms everywhere.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

DSA Rankings 2.0

After the last round of pre-scouting combine Mock Drafts, I have put together the second Draft Slot Average Player Rankings for the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. The information was accumulated from Mock Drafts leading up to the NFL Scouting Combine, and does not reflect the workouts from this past week in Indianapolis. Considering the outstanding performances of Julio Jones, Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara and others, as well as the less than stellar workouts of Cam Newton, Cameron Heyward, Torrey Smith, and the evasive answers from Ryan Mallett (whose on-field workouts though may have been the best of any quarterback), Mock Drafts everywhere are sure to have a major shakeup. But here are the DSA Player Rankings 2.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:

DSA Rankings 2.0 3-1-11


Da'Quan Bowers 1.70
Nick Fairley 3.50
A.J. Green 4.20
Patrick Peterson 4.30
Von Miller 5.60
Cam Newton 5.80
Marcel Dareus 6.00
Blaine Gabbert 7.00
Prince Amukamara 8.30
Robert Quinn 12.70
J.J, Watt 12.90
Julio Jones 14.00
Ryan Kerrigan 16.50
Cameron Jordan 17.10
Nate Solder 17.20
Mark Ingram 18.60
Adrian Clayborn 19.10
Tyron Smith 20.30
Aldon Smith 20.30
Akeem Ayers 20.30
Anthony Castanzo 21.90
Justin Houston 23.30
Gabe Carimi 24.40
Mike Pouncey 24.50
Jake Locker 25.10
Corey Liuget 25.10
Jimmy Smith 25.60
Cameron Heyward 27.10
Mikel Leshoure 30.50
Brandon Harris 30.80
Ryan Mallett 32.80
Jonathon Baldwin 32.90
Phil Taylor 34.00
Derek Sherrod 34.20
Stephen Paea 34.80
Allen Bailey 34.90
Titus Young 35.20
Torrey Smith 35.40
Kyle Rudolph 35.40
Muhammad Wilkerson 35.70
Benjamin Ijalana 36.70
Aaron Williams 37.20
Danny Watkins 37.80
Stefan Wisniewski 39.80

The biggest gainers were Mikel Leshoure and J.J. Watt, who moved up 9 and 8 places, respectively. The players who fell the most were Brandon Harris and Ryan Mallett, who dropped 8 spots each. Da'Quan Bowers took over the top spot from Nick Fairley, who had been a unanimous choice for the #1 overall selection. But after the Scouting Combine, there is sure to be an even bigger shuffling of players up and down the DSA Player Ranking boards. We shall see.