The Josh McDaniels era in Denver got off to an incredible start, then came crashing down just as fast. After winning his first six games in 2009, McDaniels was fired near the end of a 4-12 season, which landed the Broncos in the second slot of the 2011 NFL Draft.
The Broncos offense was as potent as ever, but the defense was terrible. It did not help that Elvis Dumervil, who recorded 17 sacks in 2009, was sidelined the entire season due to injury. Dumervil is expected to return, and with the second overall selection in the draft Denver added the best pass rusher on the board in Von Miller, the outside linebacker from Texas A&M. Miller was rated as one of the three best prospects in the draft, and he will be a three down player who can defend against the run as well as get after the quarterback. With Miller coming from one side and Dumervil the other, the Broncos will have a formidable pass rush for new head coach John Fox.
The pass defense got help in Round 2 with the selection of Rahim Moore, a safety from UCLA. Moore was the top rated safety in the draft, and is an instinctive playmaker with a knack for getting to the ball. He will team with fourth round pick Quinton Carter to for a safety combo in Denver for many years.
The offensive line got an upgrade with the selection of Orlando Franklin, a tackle out of Miami. Ryan Clady has the left side anchored, and Franklin will work the right to protect either Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow, whoever winds up starting for Denver in 2011.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Virgil Green, a tight end selected in Round 7 out of Nevada. Green fought injuries throughout his career, but he is a talented receiver who will be a sure handed option for the Broncos offense.
Draft Grade: B+
Showing posts with label Von Miller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Von Miller. Show all posts
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Draft Day Trade Scenarios
Every year, the one thing that stirs up mock drafts of everyone who puts prospects to teams are draft day trade. But in 2011, with the uncertainty hanging over the game due to the lockout, trades may be few and far between.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Settling at the top
Trying to prognosticate the 2011 NFL Draft is like tossing a balloon into a tornado and trying to figure out where it's going to land. You can make a good guess, but that's about all it is. A guess. But by looking at the mock drafts that have been coming out lately, you can see quite a bit of settlement at the top of the draft.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 4.0
It's amazing how players can fall into and out of favor the closer the NFL Draft approaches. This year, the big mover up has been Marcell Dareus, and the faller has been Da'Quan Bowers. A month ago, Dareus was ranked 7th in the DSAs, with an average score of 6.00. In that same rankings, Bowers was 1st with an average of 1.70. Oh, how things have changed. Dareus is now #1, and Bowers has fallen all the way to 9th. And if questions concerning his knee are not answered soon, he is likely to fall even more.
Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.
I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011
Rank Player Average Plus/Minus
1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)
Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.
I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011
Rank Player Average Plus/Minus
1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)
Monday, January 31, 2011
Senior Bowl Movers
All Star games at the professional level are, for the most part, offensive exhibitions where the objective is not so much to win as not get hurt. Baseball is the one exception. Pitchers can control the game like no other, and there does seem to be more pride for each league to win the game. The Senior Bowl for college football players is not just a game but a working job interview. It is a chance to impress the pro scouts, and more importantly, the NFL coaches in charge of each team.
This year, I noticed some players whose stock looked to rise and fall with their play on the field. The highest rated player going into the game was Von Miller, the linebacker from Texas A&M, and he played that way in the game. He was all over the field, making one tackle after another and even playing special teams. He could very well end up like Rolando McClain going into the draft from last season. McClain was seen as mid first round pick, but he wound up going 8th overall to Oakland. He started from Day 1 and looks to be the anchor of the Raiders defense for years to come. Miller was slotted by some experts in the 10th to 15th range, but he could very well jump inot the top 10 if he impresses at the NFL Scouting Combine as well.
Ryan Kerrigan was nearly unstoppable at Purdue coming off the edge, and had many comparing him to Chris Long. I don't believe anyone has him going 2nd overall, but his play in the Senior Bowl looked very much like Brandon Graham in 2010. Similar style of play, with a non-stop motor. Graham dominated the 2010 Senior Bowl, and his stock went through the roof. Philadelphia traded up to take him with the 13th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Kerrigan could go that high as well.
There were questions about Leonard Hankerson and his speed on the outside. I do believe that the best scouts will see past that and find a receiver who will have a solid career in the NFL. You can have all the speed you want at the receiver position (Darrius Heyward-Bey), but there will always be a place for a big receiver who can run a good route, find his way to the ball, and catch it when it comes his way. Hankerson was seen as a middle round selection, but I can see him going late 2nd down to middle 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Nate Solder was seen as the best or second best offensive tackle going into the Senior Bowl, and he has all the physical tools. But I saw a raw talent who missed blocks and played a bit too stiff at left tackle. If he gets thrown in right away in the pros his confidence could take a hit right away. If he is getting beat in the Senior Bowl, what is going to happen against the elite pass rushers in the NFL?
Then there is Jake Locker. He was seen as a possible #1 Overall Pick if had had come out early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He decided to stay in school and it has been all downhill since. No one questions his athletic ability, but consistency and accuracy are seen as the strikes against his development as an elite pro quarterback. He did very little to change the minds of draft experts. Locker was seen by many as going as high as #10 to Washington, but I'm beginning to believe that he may not get picked in the first round at all. It could be argued that Colin Kaepernick from Nevada played a better Senior Bowl than Locker. With the Cincinnati Bengals coaching both players in the Senior Bowl, and not having the Carson Palmer situation settled as of yet, it would be interesting to see which one of the 2 quarterbacks the Bengals might take with the third pick of the 2nd Round. My guess would be Locker. There is too much talent to pass up.
The draft hopefuls now look forward to the NFL Scouting Combine at the end of February in Indianapolis. With the Super Bowl a week away, draft season will soon be kicking into high gear. It looks to be a very deep draft once again, an dwith no clear cut #1 overall pick, it will be interesting to see just how many experts will be changing their mock drafts. We shall see.
This year, I noticed some players whose stock looked to rise and fall with their play on the field. The highest rated player going into the game was Von Miller, the linebacker from Texas A&M, and he played that way in the game. He was all over the field, making one tackle after another and even playing special teams. He could very well end up like Rolando McClain going into the draft from last season. McClain was seen as mid first round pick, but he wound up going 8th overall to Oakland. He started from Day 1 and looks to be the anchor of the Raiders defense for years to come. Miller was slotted by some experts in the 10th to 15th range, but he could very well jump inot the top 10 if he impresses at the NFL Scouting Combine as well.
Ryan Kerrigan was nearly unstoppable at Purdue coming off the edge, and had many comparing him to Chris Long. I don't believe anyone has him going 2nd overall, but his play in the Senior Bowl looked very much like Brandon Graham in 2010. Similar style of play, with a non-stop motor. Graham dominated the 2010 Senior Bowl, and his stock went through the roof. Philadelphia traded up to take him with the 13th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Kerrigan could go that high as well.
There were questions about Leonard Hankerson and his speed on the outside. I do believe that the best scouts will see past that and find a receiver who will have a solid career in the NFL. You can have all the speed you want at the receiver position (Darrius Heyward-Bey), but there will always be a place for a big receiver who can run a good route, find his way to the ball, and catch it when it comes his way. Hankerson was seen as a middle round selection, but I can see him going late 2nd down to middle 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Nate Solder was seen as the best or second best offensive tackle going into the Senior Bowl, and he has all the physical tools. But I saw a raw talent who missed blocks and played a bit too stiff at left tackle. If he gets thrown in right away in the pros his confidence could take a hit right away. If he is getting beat in the Senior Bowl, what is going to happen against the elite pass rushers in the NFL?
Then there is Jake Locker. He was seen as a possible #1 Overall Pick if had had come out early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He decided to stay in school and it has been all downhill since. No one questions his athletic ability, but consistency and accuracy are seen as the strikes against his development as an elite pro quarterback. He did very little to change the minds of draft experts. Locker was seen by many as going as high as #10 to Washington, but I'm beginning to believe that he may not get picked in the first round at all. It could be argued that Colin Kaepernick from Nevada played a better Senior Bowl than Locker. With the Cincinnati Bengals coaching both players in the Senior Bowl, and not having the Carson Palmer situation settled as of yet, it would be interesting to see which one of the 2 quarterbacks the Bengals might take with the third pick of the 2nd Round. My guess would be Locker. There is too much talent to pass up.
The draft hopefuls now look forward to the NFL Scouting Combine at the end of February in Indianapolis. With the Super Bowl a week away, draft season will soon be kicking into high gear. It looks to be a very deep draft once again, an dwith no clear cut #1 overall pick, it will be interesting to see just how many experts will be changing their mock drafts. We shall see.
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