Saturday, April 30, 2011

The Draft Ends and The Lockout Begins (Again)

The 2011 NFL Draft has come to an end. Instead of heading to team facilities, the new draft picks are on hold, as are the veterans of every club. The lockout has been re-instated. For now. Which means that only the first round picks who were able to make it to their new clubs' offices were able to obtain playbooks. How crazy is it that A.J. Green has a playbook to study, but his new quarterback with the Bengals, Andy Dalton, does not. Perhaps they can share. I have no idea.

But what I do know is that this madness needs to end. From a fan's point of view, you have billionaire owners and millionaire players fighting over the crumbs of the pie. I know it is more complex than that. It just doesn't seem that way to fans who shell out their hard earned money and, perhaps more importantly, their loyalty.

So the action of the NFL now heads back to the courts. Draft picks will wait to workout and get signed. Free agents will wait to negotiate with teams before they can sign. Undrafted free agents will wait, and wait, and wait. I cannot picture a fall without NFL football. If the clubs and players have to revert to 2010 rules then so be it. Let's get back to work. The fans at the draft chanted at Commissioner Goddell 'We Want Football!' The commish replied 'So Do I.' OK, then. Prove it. End the lockout. Sign a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. And let's get back to football.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Day 2 In The Books

Day 2 of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books, and winners and losers are starting to surface among the teams. Some have been doing this for a long time. Some are getting better. Some have me scratching my head.

The New England Patriots always seem to own the draft. They have been accumulating top picks the last few years, and 2011 is no different. Even looking to next year, the Patriots have already picked up an additional first and second round pick. But for 2011, they have selected a left tackle in Nate Solder to pair with Sebastian Vollmer that could be called, with acknowledgements to Tom Clancy's Hunt For Red October, Thor's Twins. Both are 6'8, young and very athletic. Tom Brady is going to be well protected for a long time, and they even got his future replacement in Ryan Mallett, who fell all the way to Round 3. New England picked up a pair of running backs to fill a need in Round 2, but the pick who could turn out to be the most valuable might be Ras-I Dowling, a cornerback from Virginia. He has ideal size and speed to play corner in the NFL, but has battled injuries in college and could use some seasoning in the pros. But if he develops, New England will have a pair of top flight corners in Dowling and Devin McCourtey for years to come.

The New Orleans Saints for two elite players in Round 1, selecting Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram. But the third round brought two more impact players in Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick. Wilson may be a bit raw, but he is a talented, gifted linebacker and Patrick looks to be a solid cover corner who also plays the run very well. The Saints got an infusion of talent at the running back position, where they had injuries all of 2010, and in all three facets of the defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals had an excellent draft in 2010, and this year has gotten off to a good start. A.J. Green was a near unanimous choice as the best offensive player in the draft, and with Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco Johnson most likely not returning he fills a glaring need. Carson Palmer doesn't look to be returning either, and the Bengals picked up Andy Dalton with the third pick of Round 2. Many draftniks had Dalton moving up into the first round, and Cincinnati was able to select him without having to trade up and relinquishing any of their other picks. Jay Gruden is going to install the West Coast system, and they will need a mobile, accurate quarterback to run the offense. Dalton is that, and he is a leader and a winner. Even if Palmer returns to Cincy, I can see Dalton taking over the starting spot during the season. Then the Bengals addressed the defensive side by taking Dontay Moch in Round 3. Moch is a disruptive force, who spends a lot of time in the opponents backfield. The Bengals could use Moch as a backup to Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga on the outside, and could line the three of them up together with Rodderick Muckleroy in some 3-4 schemes.

The Detroit Lions got perhaps the biggest steal of the draft when Nick Fairley fell all the way to #13, then they got two more solid picks in Round 2. Titus Young is the speed receiver to compliment Calvin Johnson, and Mikel Leshoure is the between the tackles workhorse to compliment Jahvid Best. The Lions need to keep Matthew Stafford healthy, and if they can address that need in Day 3 they will easily be one of the biggest winners of the draft.

The Houston Texans needed help on defense. A lot of help. And they got it and then some. J.J. Watt is the ideal 3-4 end, and in Round 2 they got an outside linebacker in Brooks Reed who can rush the passer. But one of the biggest steals of the draft has to be Brandon Harris going to Houston in Round 3. He may lack the ideal size, but Harris has speed and plays more physical than his stature might indicate. Harris was a popular late first round selection of many mock drafts, and I had him going #32 to Green Bay. He can pair up with Kareem Jackson to solidify the Texans pass coverage.

Then there is the Minnesota Vikings. They went into the draft needing a quarterback. And they got one. A lot higher than everyone thought Christian Ponder would be taken in the draft. Ponder is a good fit for the Vikings West Coast offense, but he may have to play right away unless Minnesota can acquire a veteran to hold the fort until he is ready. They also need to shore up the middle of the defensive line, add a receiver with Sidney Rice being a free agent and Percy Harvin with migraine issues, and the secondary needs help as well. So with their second round pick, the Vikings select...Kyle Rudolph. While Rudolph has the skills to be a top tight end in the NFL, and the Vikings could use some youth at the position, Minnesota could have also drafted Rahim Moore, Marcus Gilchrist, Marvin Austin, or Greg Little. I believe that any of these players may make a more immediate impact with the Vikings. But if you look at the players Minnesota could have had, Nick Fairley and Ryan Mallett were available and if they Vikings had picked those two, I don't see anyone looking at their draft and wondering what they were doing.

Day 3 of the 2011 NFL Draft is tomorrow. What surprises await teams, players and fans alike? We shall see.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Picking My Jaw Up Off The Floor

The first round of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. All I can say is 'WOW.' As I posted previously, some teams had a bit of a panic attack and reached for quarterbacks. Cam Newton will most likely win more hearts and minds in Carolina than ballgames. Jake Locker has all the athletic ability in the world, and he is going to get thrown into the fire right away in Tennessee. Unless they go out and get a veteran quarterback when the lockout is officially lifted, Minnesota is going to have a competition for the starting spot between Joe Webb and Christian Ponder. Then there is Jacksonville. When I heard they had traded up to #10 with Washington, my first thought was 'they are going to get a premier pass rusher.' Instead, they drafted the backup to David Garrard with the selection of Blaine Gabbert.

Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.

Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.

If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.

The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.

As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

TMG Draft Zone Mock Draft--2011 Final

It's the day before the 2011 NFL Draft, and it's time to post my final mock draft for this year. I'm not a big fan of posting mock draft all the time and constantly making changes, but the uncertainty of the labor situation has dictated that this is going to be a different draft season. Looking back, I kept five players at the same spot I originally had them in February, and 28 of the original 32 picks I made are still in the first round. Changes, yes. But you need to shuffle the deck every now and then. So here is the final TMG DraftZone Mock Draft for 2011:

1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Von Miller LB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Robert Quinn DE
7) San Francisco Patrick Peterson CB
8) Tennessee Nick Fairley DT
9) Dallas Tyron Smith OT
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Prince Amukamara CB
12) Minnesota Cameron Jordan DE
13) Detroit Anthony Castonzo OT
14) St. Louis Corey Liuget DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England J.J. Watt DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Mike Pouncey OG
20) Tampa Bay Da'Quan Bowers DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Gabe Carimi OT
23) Philadelphia Jimmy Smith CB
24) New Orleans Cameron Heyward DE
25) Seattle Jake Locker QB
26) Baltimore Aaron Williams CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Phil Taylor DT
29) Chicago Nate Solder OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Brandon Harris CB

I look forward to seeing how well my picks pan out on Thursday night. For all of you that have made your own mocks drafts I wish you well, my fellow draftniks. Let's get the NFL Draft started!

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

DSA Player Rankings 6.0--2011 Final

It is two days until the 2011 NFL Draft, and today I am posting my final DSA Player Rankings for this year. It seems that the prospects at the top have pretty much been solidified in their draft slots, and that is due to the uncertainty of the lockout and labor negotiations. Teams still have not been able to sign free agents, even with the ruling that came down yesterday. So it looks like this is going to be the draft for needs, not just the draft for the best player available. So here is the final DSA Player Rankings for 2011:

DSA Rankings 6.0 4-28-11


1) Cam Newton 1.30
2) Marcel Dareus 1.90
3) Von Miller 3.60
4) A.J. Green 4.20
5) Blaine Gabbert 5.00
6) Patrick Peterson 6.40
7) Robert Quinn 7.00
8) Nick Fairley 7.40
9) Julio Jones 9.20
10) Tyron Smith 9.40
11) Prince Amukamara 12.20
12) Cameron Jordan 13.30
13) Aldon Smith 15.10
14) Corey Liuget 15.40
15) J.J, Watt 16.00
16) Ryan Kerrigan 16.70
17) Anthony Castanzo 17.10
18) Mike Pouncey 17.40
19) Da'Quan Bowers 18.20
20) Mark Ingram 21.00
21) Gabe Carimi 22.60
22) Jimmy Smith 24.50
23) Cameron Heyward 25.90
24) Derek Sherrod 26.60
25) Nate Solder 26.80
26) Muhammad Wilkerson 27.10
27) Akeem Ayers 28.30
28) Phil Taylor 28.50
29) Jake Locker 29.90
30) Danny Watkins 30.30
31) Adrian Clayborn 30.70
32) Aaron Williams 31.10


The biggest upward movers going into the final weeks of the draft has been Cameron Heyward, who moved up seven slots in the latest DSA's. Corey Liuget jumped up six positions, while Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan shot up five slots each. The players who travelled south the most were Adrian Clayborn, who for some reason dropped ten slots down to #31, and Da'Quan Bowers, who fell another eight spots to #19. Teams are getting nervous about Bowers and just how healthy his knee is, but Clayborn is a bit of a mystery. I believe he is more a victim of the numbers with a deep class at defensive end and could very well go in the mid-first round.

Looking back at the first DSA's I posted back in February compared to the final in late April, there are a number of players who saw their stock rise and fall in the eyes of draftniks during the past two months. Nick Fairley was a unanimous #1 Overall selection, then dropped to a near unanimous #8 pick for Tennessee. Akeem Ayers fell twelve spots to #27, and Adrian Clayborn went south thirteen positions to #31. Brandon Harris was #22 and Ryan Mallett was #23, and both are not anywhere near the top 32 in the final rankings.

Cam Newton started at #8, and moved all the way to the top before the draft. Corey Liuget shot up eleven slots to #14, and Mike Pouncey gained nine spots to #18. Muhammad Wilkerson and Danny Watkins both made the largest jump from outside the first 32 to the final, both moving up ten slots to #26 and #30, respectively.

But nothing compares to the draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers. I could do this for another hundred years and not see anything like it again. Bowers was second after the initial DSA Players Rankings, then moved up to the top spot for DSA 2.0. Then the NFL Scouting Combine came around. Bowers did not work out due to knee surgery. Then he had a poor showing at the Clemson Pro Day, mostly due to not being able to work out while rehabbing his knee. Then the rumors circulated. Out of shape. Knee not responding. Arthritic knee. And his stock began to drop. And drop. And drop. All the way to #19 of the final DSA Player Rankings. I'm hoping he proves all the naysayers wrong, is 100% healthy, and hits the field with a whole bags of chips on his shoulder. If that's the case, he will be the biggest bargain of the draft if he indeed falls to the mid-late first round. We will find out Thursday night and in the months ahead.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Filling Out The Depth Chart-Defense

Yesterday I posted a list of prospects that I believe will be solid pros in the NFL, but look to be taken after the first round of the upcoming. Today is for the defense. A number of these players have been placed in the first round of previous mock drafts, so there is talent and potential aplenty to go around. So here is my list of post-first round defensive prospects:

Defensive End: Allen Bailey
Defensive End: Sam Acho
Defensive Tackle: Drake Nevis
Defensive Tackle: Christian Ballard
Outside Linebacker: Bruce Carter
Outside Linebacker: Dontay Moch
Inside Linebacker: Colin McCarthy
Cornerback: Ras-I Dowling
Cornerback: Brandon Burton
Safety: Marcus Gilchrist
Safety: Quinton Carter

Bailey is a versatile lineman who can play inside or outside, and is seen as a better inside pass rusher. You are not going to find a better student-athlete than Acho, and his game on the field has drawn comparisons to fellow Longhorn Brian Orakpo. Nevis and Ballard both need to bulk up some to play in the middle but are athletic enough to play end as well. Carter is coming off of a knee injury late in 2010, but when healthy he showed good range against the run and pass. Moch has tremendous speed who is a disruptive force in the backfield. McCarthy can play inside and outside and has a nose for the football. Dowling has the size to cover bigger receivers and Burton has the speed to run with the fastest on the outside. Gilchrist and Carter are both physical presences in the secondary and should be instant contributors on special teams.

It is three days until the 2011 NFL Draft. The stars are at the top of everyone's draft boards, but it is the picks on days two and three that will determine whether a teams' draft is a success.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Filling Out The Depth Chart-Offense

With four days until the 2011 NFL Draft, everyone knows about the players who are going to be selected at the top of the draft. Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers and all the rest of the potential first rounders have been dissected more than a frog in a high school biology class. Although there isn't a Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh or Matthew Stafford at the top of the draft, there is more than enough depth to fill out the rosters of all 32 teams in the league.


Looking at the draft, I have targeted an offensive and defensive roster that I will be keeping an eye on to see where they are selected and what kind of an impact they make in 2011. Many have been listed as possible first rounders in a number of mock drafts, but for the most part these players look to go late second round, third or fourth round:

Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Running Back: Daniel Thomas
Running Back: DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver: Leonard Hankerson
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb
Tight End: Luke Stocker
Offensive Tackle: James Brewer
Offensive Tackle: Orlando Franklin
Offensive Guard: Clint Boling
Offensive Guard: Rodeny Hudson
Center: Stefan Wisniewski


Kaepernick has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, played in a non-pro style offense in college as did Newton, and looks to go in Round 3 where Newton will be a top 5 pick or first overall. He has his detractors who say that his game will take time to develop in the NFL, but as a later round pick he has that luxury where Newton will not. Thomas is Mr. Inside who can pound the ball between the tackles and Murray is Mr. Outside who looks to contribute as a third down specialist.

Hankerson showed his size and pass catching abilities at the Senior Bowl, and I believe he could sneak up into the early second round. Cobb is the versatile playmaker who has played quarterback, wide receiver and running back. A team looking for their Offensive Weapon similar to Dexter McCluster will find a place for Cobb. Stocker is a big target at 6'6" with very good hands.

Brewer is a man mountain who looks to fit in at right tackle or possibly guard, and Franklin looks to play the right side as well. Hudson and Boling both could use a little more size and strength to play the interior but have the talent needed to play in the NFL. Wisniewski is the top rated center with a very high football IQ who can play guard or center, but who could also use a little more size at this time.

I'll post my Defensive Depth Chart tomorrow. The 2011 NFL Draft is four days away. I'm looking forward to seeing who will be going where and how they fit into their new teams' systems. That's what the NFL Draft is all about.