Every year, the one thing that stirs up mock drafts of everyone who puts prospects to teams are draft day trade. But in 2011, with the uncertainty hanging over the game due to the lockout, trades may be few and far between.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Franchising in the 2nd Round
Going into the NFL Draft, teams that don't already their franchise quarterback are on the lookout for one. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and is also the face of the franchise. Selecting the right player can put a franchise on the path to greatness. The wrong pick can set a team back for years.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 5.0
The 2011 NFL Draft is now two weeks away. Mock drafts are coming fast and furious. And this is the point of the process where the draftniks need to be seen, and the best way is to make the shocking pick. Last year, it was Tim Tebow. Just about everyone had Tebow going in round 2 or later, then the Florida quarterback started creeping up the mock draft boards. Tebow had his highest mock draft slot at #9 to Buffalo, and eventually he went to Denver at #25.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Settling at the top
Trying to prognosticate the 2011 NFL Draft is like tossing a balloon into a tornado and trying to figure out where it's going to land. You can make a good guess, but that's about all it is. A guess. But by looking at the mock drafts that have been coming out lately, you can see quite a bit of settlement at the top of the draft.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 4.0
It's amazing how players can fall into and out of favor the closer the NFL Draft approaches. This year, the big mover up has been Marcell Dareus, and the faller has been Da'Quan Bowers. A month ago, Dareus was ranked 7th in the DSAs, with an average score of 6.00. In that same rankings, Bowers was 1st with an average of 1.70. Oh, how things have changed. Dareus is now #1, and Bowers has fallen all the way to 9th. And if questions concerning his knee are not answered soon, he is likely to fall even more.
Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.
I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011
Rank Player Average Plus/Minus
1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)
Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.
I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011
Rank Player Average Plus/Minus
1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)
Sunday, April 3, 2011
TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
I've been away for a while. Spring is here, work needs to be done and baseball is going full speed ahead. But I've been working on the next DSA Player Rankings for the 2011 NFL Draft, and I have also come out with my second mock draft. I know, I know. I said last year that you should make your picks and stick with them. But the research I've been putting into the draft this year has allowed me to come to the conclusion that because the draft is so deep, that teams have 5-10 players at the top of their boards.
In 2010, there were basically three players seen as having the potential to go #1 overall in the draft. They were Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy. Of all the mock drafts I accumulated leading up to the draft, they were the only 3 players that the draftniks had slotted at the top. This year, I have seen 7 players at the top of the mocks. And the player many see as the top prospect, Patrick Peterson, has not been placed at #1 overall. At least none that I have found.
So here is the TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, and I because of all the uncertainty, I will make one more mock draft the afternoon of Round 1. By then one might think the draft order would be a bit more settled. But you never know.
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Nick Fairley DT
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Patrick Peterson CB
7) San Francisco Prince Amukamara CB
8) Tennessee Von Miller LB
9) Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota Jake Locker QB
13) Detroit Tyron Smith OT
14) St. Louis J.J. Watt DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Cameron Jordan DE
17) New England Mike Pouncey OG
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Ryan Kerrigan DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Nate Solder OT
23) Philadelphia Brandon Harris CB
24) New Orleans Stephen Paea DT
25) Seattle Adrian Clayborn DE
26) Baltimore Cameron Heyward DE
27) Atlanta Torrey Smith WR
28) New England Corey Liuget DT
29) Chicago Gabe Carimi OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Martez Wilson LB
I believe a new regime in Carolina is going to bring a new quarterback. Cam Newton has one attribute in excess more so than Blaine Gabbert-Charisma. I have Da'Quan Bowers falling out of the top spot due to concerns or injuries. If he checks out and still falls down the first round, some team is going to reap the benefits greatly. If Patrick Peterson falls to Cleveland at #6, it is going to be very difficult to pass on the Browns defense for years to come, pairing Peterson with Joe Haden on the corners.
The biggest reach I have is Jake Locker at #12 to Minnesota, even though previously I had him going #10 to Washington. If the Vikings believe that Joe Webb or Tavaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback for the future, it could be bleak for the offense. Locker has the skill set to play in the NFL, and if he can get his accuracy under control, he will not be a reach at all at #12 for Minnesota.
One thing about this draft is certain. A team is really going to have to screw up in Round 1 to be labeled a loser. But you never know. There is always a team that believes a player such as Darrius Heyward-Bey is worthy of the seventh overall pick.
In 2010, there were basically three players seen as having the potential to go #1 overall in the draft. They were Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy. Of all the mock drafts I accumulated leading up to the draft, they were the only 3 players that the draftniks had slotted at the top. This year, I have seen 7 players at the top of the mocks. And the player many see as the top prospect, Patrick Peterson, has not been placed at #1 overall. At least none that I have found.
So here is the TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, and I because of all the uncertainty, I will make one more mock draft the afternoon of Round 1. By then one might think the draft order would be a bit more settled. But you never know.
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Nick Fairley DT
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Patrick Peterson CB
7) San Francisco Prince Amukamara CB
8) Tennessee Von Miller LB
9) Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota Jake Locker QB
13) Detroit Tyron Smith OT
14) St. Louis J.J. Watt DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Cameron Jordan DE
17) New England Mike Pouncey OG
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Ryan Kerrigan DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Nate Solder OT
23) Philadelphia Brandon Harris CB
24) New Orleans Stephen Paea DT
25) Seattle Adrian Clayborn DE
26) Baltimore Cameron Heyward DE
27) Atlanta Torrey Smith WR
28) New England Corey Liuget DT
29) Chicago Gabe Carimi OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Martez Wilson LB
I believe a new regime in Carolina is going to bring a new quarterback. Cam Newton has one attribute in excess more so than Blaine Gabbert-Charisma. I have Da'Quan Bowers falling out of the top spot due to concerns or injuries. If he checks out and still falls down the first round, some team is going to reap the benefits greatly. If Patrick Peterson falls to Cleveland at #6, it is going to be very difficult to pass on the Browns defense for years to come, pairing Peterson with Joe Haden on the corners.
The biggest reach I have is Jake Locker at #12 to Minnesota, even though previously I had him going #10 to Washington. If the Vikings believe that Joe Webb or Tavaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback for the future, it could be bleak for the offense. Locker has the skill set to play in the NFL, and if he can get his accuracy under control, he will not be a reach at all at #12 for Minnesota.
One thing about this draft is certain. A team is really going to have to screw up in Round 1 to be labeled a loser. But you never know. There is always a team that believes a player such as Darrius Heyward-Bey is worthy of the seventh overall pick.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 3.0
March Madness has arrived. I've been watching Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and the games are as exciting as ever. My brackets are shot to hell, but I'll keep rooting for my picks anyway.
The NFL Draft process could very well be described as madness, as witnessed by the newest DSA Player Rankings. As I blogged earlier, quarterbacks are moving up as teams put a premium on selecting their franchise signal caller. Cam Newton moved up five spots to take over the #1 position, and Blaine Gabbert also moved up 5 positions. Nick Fairley fell five spots to number 7, and he has done nothing to hurt his draft stock through his workouts. He was good at the NFL Scouting Combine, and even better at the Auburn Pro Day. What this might result in will be Fairley playing with a chip on his shoulder in the same way that Warren Sapp played after falling to #12 in the 1995 NFL Draft. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0:
DSA Rankings 3.0 Plus
Minus
1) Cam Newton 5
2) Da'Quan Bowers (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 5
4) Marcel Dareus 3
5) A.J. Green (2)
6) Patrick Peterson (2)
7) Nick Fairley (5)
8) Von Miller (3)
9) Prince Amukamara 0
10) Robert Quinn 0
11) Julio Jones 1
12) Cameron Jordan 2
13) Mark Ingram 3
14) Tyron Smith 4
15) J.J, Watt (4)
16) Aldon Smith 3
17) Ryan Kerrigan (4)
18) Nate Solder (3)
19) Anthony Castanzo 2
20) Gabe Carimi 3
21) Adrian Clayborn (4)
22) Jimmy Smith 5
23) Mike Pouncey 1
24) Justin Houston (2)
25) Corey Liuget 1
26) Jake Locker (1)
27) Derek Sherrod 7
28) Akeem Ayers (8)
29) Muhammad Wilkerson 11
30) Brandon Harris 0
31) Ryan Mallett 0
32) Cameron Heyward (4)
33) Phil Taylor 0
34) Stephen Paea 1
35) Torrey Smith 3
36) Aaron Williams 6
37) Jonathon Baldwin (5)
38) Danny Watkins 5
39) Mikel Leshoure (10)
40) Martez Wilson
41) Lance Kendricks
42) Orlando Franklin
43) Rahim Moore
44) Leonard Hankerson
45) Benjamin Ijalana (4)
46) Brooks Reed
Another gainer at the top is Marcell Dareus, who is being seen by many as a better pro prospect than Fairley, and it could very well be that these two become the Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy of 2011. One thing is certain though: it is a very deep draft, and with no lock for the #1 pick, the NFL Draft version of March Madness will most surely become April Madness in draft rooms everywhere.
The NFL Draft process could very well be described as madness, as witnessed by the newest DSA Player Rankings. As I blogged earlier, quarterbacks are moving up as teams put a premium on selecting their franchise signal caller. Cam Newton moved up five spots to take over the #1 position, and Blaine Gabbert also moved up 5 positions. Nick Fairley fell five spots to number 7, and he has done nothing to hurt his draft stock through his workouts. He was good at the NFL Scouting Combine, and even better at the Auburn Pro Day. What this might result in will be Fairley playing with a chip on his shoulder in the same way that Warren Sapp played after falling to #12 in the 1995 NFL Draft. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0:
DSA Rankings 3.0 Plus
Minus
1) Cam Newton 5
2) Da'Quan Bowers (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 5
4) Marcel Dareus 3
5) A.J. Green (2)
6) Patrick Peterson (2)
7) Nick Fairley (5)
8) Von Miller (3)
9) Prince Amukamara 0
10) Robert Quinn 0
11) Julio Jones 1
12) Cameron Jordan 2
13) Mark Ingram 3
14) Tyron Smith 4
15) J.J, Watt (4)
16) Aldon Smith 3
17) Ryan Kerrigan (4)
18) Nate Solder (3)
19) Anthony Castanzo 2
20) Gabe Carimi 3
21) Adrian Clayborn (4)
22) Jimmy Smith 5
23) Mike Pouncey 1
24) Justin Houston (2)
25) Corey Liuget 1
26) Jake Locker (1)
27) Derek Sherrod 7
28) Akeem Ayers (8)
29) Muhammad Wilkerson 11
30) Brandon Harris 0
31) Ryan Mallett 0
32) Cameron Heyward (4)
33) Phil Taylor 0
34) Stephen Paea 1
35) Torrey Smith 3
36) Aaron Williams 6
37) Jonathon Baldwin (5)
38) Danny Watkins 5
39) Mikel Leshoure (10)
40) Martez Wilson
41) Lance Kendricks
42) Orlando Franklin
43) Rahim Moore
44) Leonard Hankerson
45) Benjamin Ijalana (4)
46) Brooks Reed
Another gainer at the top is Marcell Dareus, who is being seen by many as a better pro prospect than Fairley, and it could very well be that these two become the Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy of 2011. One thing is certain though: it is a very deep draft, and with no lock for the #1 pick, the NFL Draft version of March Madness will most surely become April Madness in draft rooms everywhere.
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