I have put together my first Mock Draft for the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. The first DSA Player Rankings had Nick Fairley as the unanimous #1 Overall Selection. The data gathered for the second round of DSA's has Fairley sharing time at the top with Da'Quan Bowers. I have already made a case for Bowers to go first, and that is where I have him at this time. So here is the first TMG DraftZone Mock Draft for 2011:
1) Carolina Da'Quan Bowers DE
2) Denver Patrick Peterson CB
3) Buffalo Cam Newton QB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Nick Fairley DT
6) Cleveland Prince Amukamara CB
7) San Francisco Blaine Gabbert QB
8) Tennessee Marcell Dareus DT
9) Dallas Von Miller LB
10) Washington Jake Locker QB
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota J.J. Watt DE
13) Detroit Nate Solder OT
14) St. Louis Julio Jones WR
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England Cameron Heyward DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE
21) Kansas City Justin Houston LB
22) Indianapolis Mike Pouncey OG
23) Philadelphia Akeem Ayers LB
24) New Orleans Tyron Smith OT
25) Seattle Jimmy Smith CB
26) Baltimore Brandon Harris CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Mikel Leshoure RB
29) Chicago Jonathon Baldwin WR
30) NY Jets Cameron Jordan DE
31) Pittsburgh Phil Taylor DT
32) Green Bay Gabe Carimi OT
Any mock draft will place players based on two main criteria: team need and gut instinct. I can see Buffalo taking Cam Newton at #3, and a lot of other draftniks are going in that direction. An exceptional workout at the NFL Scouting Combine might very well move him up to the top of the draft. I also think that Jake Locker will be moving up as well after the combine, and with the premium placed on quarterbacks, I see Washington taking him at #10.
One player that may seem to be a stretch is Kyle Rudolph at #27 to Atlanta. But as good as Tony Gonzalez has been, he won't play forever. Rudolph would make an exceptional target for Matt Ryan, and would eventually take over for the future Hall of Famer Gonzalez. Another player who for now might be a reach is Nate Solder at #13 to Detroit. But the Lions would not need to put him in the starting lineup right away, and with more polishing and seasoning he would be the protector for Matthew Stafford's blind side for years. The Lions need to protect their most valuable asset, and Solder could be the long term answer.
One player that got lost in the shuffle of a deep position is Cameron Jordan. The defensive end position is loaded, and I have 8 players at that position going in the first round. You could easily shuffle those players around (with the possible exception of Bowers), and you won't get an argument from anyone. Jordan could easily go in the top 15, and if he does fall down into the 20's, the team that is able to select him will be one that the post-draft experts will say had one of the best drafts of 2011.
The NFL Scouting Combine is underway, and this weekend will go a long way to determining which players will be moving up or down the boards of mock drafters everywhere. To what extent we shall see.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Sunday, February 20, 2011
2011 DSA Player Rankings 1.0
With the 2011 NFL Draft approaching, it is time to release the first Draft Slot Average Players rankings. I have used the previous months to refine and rework the rankings system to better reflect players positions when they are not included in mock drafts.
Last year I used a score of 35 for any player who was not included in a mock draft, and discovered that the prospects were bunched up together in the rankings. This year I have made adjustments to the rankings system that I believe will better reflect the players positions. I will be releasing the DSA rankings after accumulating 10 mock drafts, and any player who is not included in any of those 10 will be given a score of 33 if left out of one, 34 if left out of 2, 35 if left out of 3, and so forth up to 41 for each of the nine drafts they are not listed in. So with the changes I have just outlined, here are the DSA Player Rankings 1.0 for 2011:
1) Nick Fairley 1.00
2) Da'Quan Bowers 2.70
3) Patrick Peterson 3.80
4) A.J. Green 4.60
5) Marcel Dareus 6.60
6) Von Miller 6.60
7) Blaine Gabbert 7.50
8) Cam Newton 8.50
9) Robert Quinn 8.60
10) Prince Amukamara 9.00
11) Cameron Jordan 12.80
12) Julio Jones 14.90
13) Aldon Smith 15.30
14) Nate Solder 16.20
15) Akeem Ayers 18.60
16) Ryan Kerrigan 19.10
17) Tyron Smith 20.60
18) Adrian Clayborn 21.20
19) J.J, Watt 21.40
20) Mark Ingram 21.50
21) Justin Houston 23.30
22) Brandon Harris 23.40
23) Ryan Mallett 24.50
24) Gabe Carimi 25.60
25) Corey Liuget 25.70
26) Anthony Castanzo 26.30
27) Mike Pouncey 26.30
28) Derek Sherrod 27.20
29) Jake Locker 29.10
30) Jimmy Smith 29.80
31) Cameron Heyward 31.10
32) Phil Taylor 31.90
33) Torrey Smith 32.00
34) Stephen Paea 32.20
35) Jonathon Baldwin 33.00
36) Muhammad Wilkerson 33.50
37) Titus Young 35.10
38) Mikel Leshoure 35.70
39) Aaron Williams 36.10
40) Danny Watkins 37.10
41) Christian Ballard 37.30
42) Allen Bailey 37.60
Nick Fairley has been a unanimous choice so far to be the #1 Overall Selection of the 2011 NFL Draft. Even last year there were many who couldn't decide between Sam Bradford, Ndamuknog Suh and Gerald McCoy. So in 2011 it looks like the Denver Broncos are the ones on the clock.
For me the two biggest surprises are Jake Locker and Cameron Heyward. Both players would have been easy Top 10 picks in 2010 if they had decided to come out early, with Locker possibly being the top pick of the draft. Of the ten mock drafts I have gathered so far, both Locker and Heyward were included in only 4 each. But with the NFL Scouting Combine coming up this week, a strong performance by Locker and Heyward could easily vault either player back in the good graces of draftniks everywhere.
Last year I used a score of 35 for any player who was not included in a mock draft, and discovered that the prospects were bunched up together in the rankings. This year I have made adjustments to the rankings system that I believe will better reflect the players positions. I will be releasing the DSA rankings after accumulating 10 mock drafts, and any player who is not included in any of those 10 will be given a score of 33 if left out of one, 34 if left out of 2, 35 if left out of 3, and so forth up to 41 for each of the nine drafts they are not listed in. So with the changes I have just outlined, here are the DSA Player Rankings 1.0 for 2011:
1) Nick Fairley 1.00
2) Da'Quan Bowers 2.70
3) Patrick Peterson 3.80
4) A.J. Green 4.60
5) Marcel Dareus 6.60
6) Von Miller 6.60
7) Blaine Gabbert 7.50
8) Cam Newton 8.50
9) Robert Quinn 8.60
10) Prince Amukamara 9.00
11) Cameron Jordan 12.80
12) Julio Jones 14.90
13) Aldon Smith 15.30
14) Nate Solder 16.20
15) Akeem Ayers 18.60
16) Ryan Kerrigan 19.10
17) Tyron Smith 20.60
18) Adrian Clayborn 21.20
19) J.J, Watt 21.40
20) Mark Ingram 21.50
21) Justin Houston 23.30
22) Brandon Harris 23.40
23) Ryan Mallett 24.50
24) Gabe Carimi 25.60
25) Corey Liuget 25.70
26) Anthony Castanzo 26.30
27) Mike Pouncey 26.30
28) Derek Sherrod 27.20
29) Jake Locker 29.10
30) Jimmy Smith 29.80
31) Cameron Heyward 31.10
32) Phil Taylor 31.90
33) Torrey Smith 32.00
34) Stephen Paea 32.20
35) Jonathon Baldwin 33.00
36) Muhammad Wilkerson 33.50
37) Titus Young 35.10
38) Mikel Leshoure 35.70
39) Aaron Williams 36.10
40) Danny Watkins 37.10
41) Christian Ballard 37.30
42) Allen Bailey 37.60
Nick Fairley has been a unanimous choice so far to be the #1 Overall Selection of the 2011 NFL Draft. Even last year there were many who couldn't decide between Sam Bradford, Ndamuknog Suh and Gerald McCoy. So in 2011 it looks like the Denver Broncos are the ones on the clock.
For me the two biggest surprises are Jake Locker and Cameron Heyward. Both players would have been easy Top 10 picks in 2010 if they had decided to come out early, with Locker possibly being the top pick of the draft. Of the ten mock drafts I have gathered so far, both Locker and Heyward were included in only 4 each. But with the NFL Scouting Combine coming up this week, a strong performance by Locker and Heyward could easily vault either player back in the good graces of draftniks everywhere.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Early Returns
The first wave of Post-Super Bowl 2011 NFL Mock Drafts are starting to roll in, and here are some early observations from the Mock Draft information I have gathered so far:
Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.
Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.
Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.
Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.
There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.
Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.
There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.
I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.
Nick Fairley is nearly a lock to go #1 Overall to Carolina.
Patrick Peterson, Da'Quan Bowers, and A.J. Green look to be going #2-4, but which order is up for grabs.
Blaine Gabbert looks to be the first quarterback taken, but Cam Newton is gaining ground fast.
Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker may not go in the first round at all.
There will be more defensive players taken in the first round than offensive.
Tight End and Safety are the two thinnest positions at the top of the draft.
There may not be an offensive lineman selected in the top 10. How rare is that? The last time it happened was in 2005.
I will soon be posting my first DSA Player Rankings of 2011, along with my own Mock Draft. With the ongoing labor negotiations, it will be interesting to see how it will effect the NFL Scouting Combine coming up at the end of February. The Combine has been the one venue where draft prospects can make a huge leap up the draft boards or a free fall downward. But regardless of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the show must go on. And it will in Indianapolis in less than two weeks.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Super Sunday
It's nearly 3 hours until kickoff, and I already have a visual image on how the Super Bowl will play out at the end.
I can see a 27-27 tie with about 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Green Bay will have the ball just short of midfield, and the Steelers defense forces a punt. The kick will be downed inside the 20, and Ben Roethlisberger will take over with a chance to win his 3rd Super Bowl.
Big Ben will lead the Steelers down to the 30 yard line, and with about 30 seconds left the Green Bay defense will hold and force a field goal attempt. On comes Shaun Suisham, the journeyman kicker who played in Dallas on two previous stints, and is returning to the scene of his past football lives.
Suisham comes in, the ball is snapped, the holder fields it clean, the spot is good, and in the equivalent of a bad acid flashback, Suisham hooks it farther left than Nancy Pelosi. Green Bay takes over around the 37 yard line with 25 seconds on the clock.
Aaron Rodgers comes in, and with 2 timeouts left, he quickly moves the ball down to the Pittsburgh 40 yard line. In comes Mason Crosby to attempt a 57 yard field goal to win the Super Bowl.
With the adreneline pumping, Crosby hits the kick of his life. It splits the uprights, with about 15 yards to spare. Green Bay wins Super Bowl XLV 30-27.
I can see a 27-27 tie with about 2 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Green Bay will have the ball just short of midfield, and the Steelers defense forces a punt. The kick will be downed inside the 20, and Ben Roethlisberger will take over with a chance to win his 3rd Super Bowl.
Big Ben will lead the Steelers down to the 30 yard line, and with about 30 seconds left the Green Bay defense will hold and force a field goal attempt. On comes Shaun Suisham, the journeyman kicker who played in Dallas on two previous stints, and is returning to the scene of his past football lives.
Suisham comes in, the ball is snapped, the holder fields it clean, the spot is good, and in the equivalent of a bad acid flashback, Suisham hooks it farther left than Nancy Pelosi. Green Bay takes over around the 37 yard line with 25 seconds on the clock.
Aaron Rodgers comes in, and with 2 timeouts left, he quickly moves the ball down to the Pittsburgh 40 yard line. In comes Mason Crosby to attempt a 57 yard field goal to win the Super Bowl.
With the adreneline pumping, Crosby hits the kick of his life. It splits the uprights, with about 15 yards to spare. Green Bay wins Super Bowl XLV 30-27.
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