Movin' On Up

Every year, there is a player who starts out as perhaps a low 1st Round pick in mock drafts, but through his play in all-star games, the NFL Scouting Combine and draft workout Pro Days, as well as his play during his final college season, he moves up towards the top of the draft. Last year, Cleveland made sure they got Trent Richardson by trading up one spot to the 3rd pick, even though many were skeptical about drafting a running back that high in the draft. Luke Kuechly started out in the mocks in the middle of Round 1, then was taken #9 by Carolina. Both players proved their worth by producing outstanding seasons. In 2011, Tryon Smith was seen as the left tackle of the future by Dallas, and the Cowboys selected him #9, even though he was seen as a little raw. Von Miller moved all the way up to #2, and Denver now has one of the best outside linebackers in the game. In 2013, the one player who looks like he was going to be a mid to late first rounder but now he looks like a lock for the top 10 is Eric Fisher, the left tackle from Central Michigan. Fisher is working out this week for the Senior Bowl, and he has looked better than advertised. Big, strong, agile with very good footwork, if Fisher can keep his quarterbacks upright this weekend, has impressive workouts at the Combine and his pro day, Fisher will go in the top 10. But he also has three players to thank just a bit for his selection position. The first two are Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan. Matthews and Lewan were seen as the second and third best tackles behind Luke Joeckel, but both decided to stay in school for their senior seasons. As valuable as quarterbacks are, quality left tackles are just as much so. Adrian Peterson nearly broke the nearly 30 year old single season rushing record held by Eric Dickerson, and in the games I watched I saw a lot of Peterson running left. Right behind Matt Kalil, the Vikings first round pick from 2012 taken 4th overall. Chrisian Ponder may not be developing as quickly as some would like to see, but he made progress and Kalil protecting his blind side will help greatly. Fisher could be a target of Tennessee at #10 or Arizona at #7. Detroit might take a look at #5, but I have a hard time seeing the Lions passing on defensive help there, even at the cost of Matthew Stafford's protection. The third player who will help Fisher move up the draft boards is Joe Staley. Staley came from Central Michigan as well, and teams were leery of taking a smaller school tackle too high at that time. Staley fell all the way to #28 in 2007, but he now anchors the best offensive line in the NFL with San Francisco, is a consistent Pro Bowl pick, and is now getting ready to play in the Super Bowl. Because of his success, teams are more likely to take a look at the player and his ability, not where he played his college ball at. Now is the time for Eric Fisher to shine. The Senior Bowl is this weekend, and this is his opportunity to his move up to the top of the 2013 NFL Draft.

With the 1st pick of the 2013 NFL Draft

The Kansas City Chiefs select...well, if they could, the Chiefs would take any number of players (but that isn't going to happen). The 2012 season for Kansas City was bad enough. The the tragic events surrounding Javon Belcher made it a nightmare to forget. But the games went on, and now the Chiefs enter a new year with a new coach and a chance to make a fresh start. The first overall selection of the 2013 Draft will be an important part of that rebuilding project. New coaches coming in with the 1st pick have a tendency to take a quarterback that they see as the cornerstone they can build around. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. Cleveland and Houston were expansion teams, but the selection of Tim Couch and David Carr did not work out in either instance. Marvin Lewis brought in Carson Palmer to Cincinnati in 2003, and Year 3 brought a division title. But knee and elbow injuries to Palmer only led to one more division title the next five years. Jim Schwartz came to Detroit in 2009, drafted Matthew Stafford, and in their third year as well the Lions made the playoffs. But last year was a major setback in Detroit, and time will tell if coach and quarterback can get Detroit back on track. Perhaps the best new coach/high draft pick combinations to come in together with a team recently were Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia in 1999, and Mike Smith and Matt Ryan in Atlanta in 2008. Although McNabb went 2nd and Ryan went 3rd, I can guarantee you that the teams picking first both years wish they had those selections over to do again. Smith and Ryan are going to the NFC Championship game this weekend, and are in the playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years. Miami had the 1st pick in 2008, and even though Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, the Dolphins have one playoff appearance since then and their quarterback carousel took until 2012 before it finally landed on Ryan Tannehill. McNabb wasn't even the Browns' second choice in 1999. That would have been Akili Smith, who went 3rd to Cincinnati. Cleveland and Cincinnati watched their picks flame out within four seasons, while Reid and McNabb went to 5 NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. Which brings us to 2013. Reid is now coaching Kansas City, and has the 1st Overall selection of the draft. The Chiefs need a quarterback. Matt Cassell and Brady Quinn are not going to cut it. It seems pretty clear cut. Take a quarterback. One problem. This isn't 2012. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are not in the draft this year. Neither is Ryan Tannehill or Russell Wilson. The problem is that the quarterback class of 2013 is about as weak as it has been in recent memory. But I still see Kansas City taking a quarterback #1, and that player is Geno Smith. Even though his final year at West Virginia stalled out at the end after a blazing start, I believe Smith is the quarterback Reid is looking for. Very good size. Mobile and able to move in the pocket and run out of it as well. Good arm strength and very accurate. Doesn't that sound a lot like Donovan McNabb? I write about this every year, and 2013 is no different. Panic in the Draft Room. Teams that need a qaurterback make a reach for someone they could get later in the draft. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But one reason I see Smith going to Kansas City and benig a success is the personnel already there. The Chiefs may have only been 2-14, but they sent 5 players to the Pro Bowl. One of those players is someone Reid never had in Philadelphia, and that is Jamaal Charles. All those great teams the Eagles had never once put out a running back that was the main focus of the offense. Charles can take the pressure off of Smith much the same way that Adrian Peterson has in Minnesota with Christian Ponder. But it doesn't always work that way. Jake Locker in Tennessee and Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville have star backs ni Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew, but a combination of injuries, holdouts, and just plain lack of production has hindered the developments of the young signal callers. The Chiefs could play the waiting game on draft weekend. Take Luke Joeckel, the massive left tackle and the best prospect in the draft, and wait until Round 2 or perhaps trade up to get a quarterback. Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon could still be around. But I don't see it happening. Barring an unforeseen disaster at the Scouting Combine or at his pro day, Geno Smith is going first in the 2013 NFL Draft to the Kansas City Chiefs. I say this because I don't see Andy Reid starting the year with Matt Cassell or Brady Quinn as his starting quarterback. Smith and Reid are a very good match, and I see it happening in April at the 2013 NFL Draft.

The Quarterback Carousel Goes Round And Round

The 2012 NFL regular season ended two days ago. Seven coaches and five general managers got the ax yesterday. It's amazing how much the NFL has become a quarterback driven league. Taking a look at everyone who got a pink slip, with the exception of Lovie Smith in Chicago, they have one thing in common: inconsistent to bad play at the quarterback position. Normally, my blog centers on the NFL Draft. But with the lack of superstars at the quarterback position coming into the draft, and the annual Panic In The Draft Room that occurs every year, what happens to the veterans at the position will impact which signal callers entering the league end up where they get selected. Kansas City holds the first selection, and they need a quarterback perhaps more than any one. Matt Cassell has not been the player in KC that he showed in New England during his one season in place of Tom Brady. Then again, that year he took over a team that had just gone 18-1, and he had Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. Cassell led the Chiefs to the playoffs in 2010, but he was supported by a strong running game and a strong defense. The pieces are in place, but Cassell has not been able to put the puzzle together. Brady Quinn stepped in late in the season after Cassell was injured, but Quinn has been a bust for three teams now, and his future is that of Terry Hanratty. A clipboard holding backup. Jacksonville has the second pick, and I believe they will start the dominoes when they trade for Tim Tebow. Shahid Khan wants him in Jacksonville, and even though everyone is telling him that Tebow is not the answer Khan knows that he will put people in the seats. At least for a few games. Tim Tebow is a great competitor, a winner, and a bad passer of the football. He deserves a fair chance to succeed on a team that wants him. And no matter what you say about Tebow the quarterback, he is better than Blaine Gabbert. Blaine Gabbert shows that teams will take a chance on a quarterback high in the draft these days. With the rookie salary cap in place, the big money isn't going to the unproven rookies as it once did. Missing on a high pick can still set a team back, but now they can cast them off earlier then before because the financial hit is not what it once was. So even though the talent at the quarterback position going into the 2013 NFL Draft is not anywhere near the top tier of past drafts, some team will take a chance on Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, or Tyler Wilson. But when the quarterback carousel finally stops, and the veterans finally find new homes, that may change. Teams are going to be looking at Michael Vick and Alex Smith, perhaps Matt Cassell or Carson Palmer. I would not be at all surprised to see Tony Romo or Mark Sanchez find new homes. I would be surprised even less if they were traded for each other in a straight up swap. Give each player a new home and a fresh start. Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy both may be on the way out of Cleveland with new ownership and a new coach coming in. Matt Flynn most likely won't want to sit behind Russell Wilson in Seattle, and may want out. Joe Flacco is a free agent, and after turning down a contract from Baltimore in the offseason, if the Ravens do not put the franchise tag on him, Flacco will be looking for a new team. But I do not see Flacco going anywhere except the bank. But one quarterback who will get a lot of interest from teams is the one player who has the least amount of experience on field, and that is Ryan Mallett of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is not going to retire any time soon, and Mallett has two years left on his rookie contract. Mallett fell to the third round in 2011 due to off field issues, but he has kept his nose clean under the tuteledge of Bill Belichick, and New England could very easily get a higher draft pick for Mallett than what they selected him with. Mallett has the talent, has had the opportunity to learn from the best in New England, and someone will give him a chance if the Patriots want to part ways. Teams will be looking for the next Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Russell Wilson. But I don't see the talent in the deep end of the pool this year. But as I have posted the past drafts, Panic In The Draft Room will set in, and the quarterbacks in this years draft will shoot up the boards. Just as they do every year.