My last entry took a look at the quarterbacks selected in Round 1 of the 2011 NFL Draft. Now I'll focus on the signal callers picked in Round 2 and 3. Other quarterbacks were selected in later rounds, but the three from Day 2 were seen as potential first round picks, and should have an impact from the start in one way or another.
The Cincinnati Bengals held the third pick of Round 2, and were in desperate need of a quarterback. Desperate because Carson Palmer has come out and said 'trade me or I retire.' Threats like this fall on deaf ears to Mike Brown, the Bengals owner. Cincinnati went into the draft with Jordan Palmer and Dan Lefevour as their quarterbacks, who have a combined 15 pass attempts in the NFL. They stuck to their guns and picked A.J. Green in Round 1, and though they could have had Blaine Gabbert, the Bengals got the best offensive player in the draft. What Cincinnati didn't do was panic and trade up into the bottom of the first round. The player they were looking at was Andy Dalton, and he was there with the 35th overall pick. Dalton rated out good on the measureables, and very good with the intangibles. He is the leader the Bengals need, and a proven winner. The Bengals have had way too much drama than they have had success, and the additions of Green and Dalton will go a long way to reshaping the franchise.
San Francisco traded up in Round 2, and were able to pick the quarterback they had targeted in Colin Kaepernick from Nevada. Kaepernick has the athletic ability to be a spectacular quarterback in the NFL, and he also has plenty working against him. He worked in the Pistol offense at Nevada, taking snaps out of the shotgun and relying on his legs as well as his arm. It could be argued that Kaepernick is the second rounds' version of Cam Newton. Kaepernick entered the draft with perhaps the best arm other than Ryan Mallett, but he will need polishing as he enters the NFL. He will get a chance in San Francisco. Alex Smith is a free agent, and though the 49ers have shown an interest in re-signing the former #1 Overall selection from 2005, it looks like Smith will finish his career as a backup. Kaepernick is in a situation where he gets to work with a new coach in Jim Harbaugh, and the success of each is going to be tied together.
Ryan Mallett entered the draft with possibly the best NFL potential and the most red flags. He could throw the ball half way to tomorrow, but his bed side manner left a lot to be desired. Mallett was projected in some mock drafts as high as #12, but his fall through the ranks was quite a surprise. What was even more surprising was who did select him. The New England Patriots do not need a quarterback. Tom Brady is #1 or #2 in the game, depending on who you talk to. He does not go any further down the list. If the Patriots are in need of insurance, they already have Brian Hoyer on the roster. The drafting of Mallett could be a case of Matt Cassel revisited. Cassel got his chance when Brady went down with a knee injury in 2008. At the end of the season he was traded to Kansas City for a second round pick. Not a bad deal considering that Cassel was originally a seventh round pick. Could it be that New England, who have been hoarding draft picks like they are going out of style lately, have it in mind to hold on to Mallett with the intention of getting a higher pick for him. It would not surprise me. It would also not surprise me that a team in need of a quarterback would trade a first rounder for Mallett. Think about it. Bill Belichick keeps him out of trouble, plays him enough to show off his skills, and finds a trading partner. One thing is certain. Tom Brady isn't going to the bench any time soon. Which keeps Mallett on the bench. For now.
The seven quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft will go a long way to determining whether this draft is a boom or a bust. Just take a look at the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft. As bad as it turned out, it's better now that Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl win. The quarterback position is that important.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Defining the Draft Class Part 1
Every NFL Draft class seems to be defined by the performance of the quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft. The 2011 Draft should not be any different. There were seven quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds. Each of them will get a chance to shine, either right away or down the road. How they play will determine whether this years class was stellar or lackluster.
There were four quarterbacks taken in the first twelve picks. It could be said that each one was picked out of a combination of need, panic and desperation. Cam Newton went #1 Overall to Carolina. The Panthers have two quarterbacks on their roster that they picked just last year in Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike. Matt Moore started the season as the starter, but ineffective play and injuries put him on the sideline. Clausen moved into the starting role and fared little better. Can Newton turn the tide in Carolina? If he has to play behind the same line as Moore and Clausen it will be difficult. But it could be said that Newton was taken first as the Panthers need a new face for the franchise. He will sell tickets and jerseys. He will make a 2-14 team the talk of the league. But he will need a better supporting cast and a transitional period to adapt to the NFL. One thing that not many have been talking about in regards to Newton. He is a winner. He won the JUCO National Title and NCAA Title the last two seasons. How will he handle losing? Will it be his fault or someone else's? If he starts to throw his teammates under the bus he will find a lonely locker room in Carolina.
Blaine Gabbert was seen by many as the best of the quarterback class going into the draft. But one had to wonder where he would land when Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Francisco all passed on the Missouri signal caller. I'm not sure what was more surprising: who passed on Gabbert, or who selected him. Jacksonville traded up to the #10 spot to take Gabbert. But with David Garrard under contract for a few more years, Gabbert will get a chance to sit and learn. Unless the Jaguars decide that they have seen enough average play out of Garrard and move Gabbert into the lineup. What I can envision is a similar scenario that Phillip Rivers faced in San Diego. When he was selected in 2004, Drew Brees was not putting up big numbers. But with the hot rookie commodity on the bench, Brees took his game and the Chargers to new heights. Rivers sat for two seasons. It did help his case that Brees suffered what was seen as a major shoulder injury and was a free agent. Rivers got the call in San Diego. Brees moved on to New Orleans. Now they are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If Garrard picks his game up it may be a while before Gabbert sees the light of day. But after two seasons Jacksonville may have to decide: the proven veteran, or the untested youngster. When Gabbert gets his chance will ultimately be decided by Garrard.
The other two quarterbacks selected in Round One were Jake Locker, taken #8 by Tennessee, and Christian Ponder, selected #12 by Minnesota. There are reaches in the first round of any draft, but not many brought about gasps of disbelief as these two. Locker has the athletic ability. Ponder is well suited to adjust to the pro game. But Locker has issues with accuracy, and Ponder has injury concerns. If they had been selected in either the late first or early second round there wouldn't be much talk about the picks. But both are going to teams with serious quarterback issues. Tennessee is parting ways with Vince Young. Minnesota has seen the last of Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Locker and Ponder will be starting from Day One. Their teams drafted them too high not too and, for the most part, they don't have a better option. But both quarterbacks have one thing in common. They are moving into a backfield that has a stellar running back. Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Without having to carry the full burden of the offense, it will make it easier to succeed. But not much. Locker and Ponder are going to find out how brightly the spotlight shines on the quarterback position. it's like no other position in all of sports. It defines the sport and the teams. And it will define the 2011 NFL Draft Class.
There were four quarterbacks taken in the first twelve picks. It could be said that each one was picked out of a combination of need, panic and desperation. Cam Newton went #1 Overall to Carolina. The Panthers have two quarterbacks on their roster that they picked just last year in Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike. Matt Moore started the season as the starter, but ineffective play and injuries put him on the sideline. Clausen moved into the starting role and fared little better. Can Newton turn the tide in Carolina? If he has to play behind the same line as Moore and Clausen it will be difficult. But it could be said that Newton was taken first as the Panthers need a new face for the franchise. He will sell tickets and jerseys. He will make a 2-14 team the talk of the league. But he will need a better supporting cast and a transitional period to adapt to the NFL. One thing that not many have been talking about in regards to Newton. He is a winner. He won the JUCO National Title and NCAA Title the last two seasons. How will he handle losing? Will it be his fault or someone else's? If he starts to throw his teammates under the bus he will find a lonely locker room in Carolina.
Blaine Gabbert was seen by many as the best of the quarterback class going into the draft. But one had to wonder where he would land when Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and San Francisco all passed on the Missouri signal caller. I'm not sure what was more surprising: who passed on Gabbert, or who selected him. Jacksonville traded up to the #10 spot to take Gabbert. But with David Garrard under contract for a few more years, Gabbert will get a chance to sit and learn. Unless the Jaguars decide that they have seen enough average play out of Garrard and move Gabbert into the lineup. What I can envision is a similar scenario that Phillip Rivers faced in San Diego. When he was selected in 2004, Drew Brees was not putting up big numbers. But with the hot rookie commodity on the bench, Brees took his game and the Chargers to new heights. Rivers sat for two seasons. It did help his case that Brees suffered what was seen as a major shoulder injury and was a free agent. Rivers got the call in San Diego. Brees moved on to New Orleans. Now they are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If Garrard picks his game up it may be a while before Gabbert sees the light of day. But after two seasons Jacksonville may have to decide: the proven veteran, or the untested youngster. When Gabbert gets his chance will ultimately be decided by Garrard.
The other two quarterbacks selected in Round One were Jake Locker, taken #8 by Tennessee, and Christian Ponder, selected #12 by Minnesota. There are reaches in the first round of any draft, but not many brought about gasps of disbelief as these two. Locker has the athletic ability. Ponder is well suited to adjust to the pro game. But Locker has issues with accuracy, and Ponder has injury concerns. If they had been selected in either the late first or early second round there wouldn't be much talk about the picks. But both are going to teams with serious quarterback issues. Tennessee is parting ways with Vince Young. Minnesota has seen the last of Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Locker and Ponder will be starting from Day One. Their teams drafted them too high not too and, for the most part, they don't have a better option. But both quarterbacks have one thing in common. They are moving into a backfield that has a stellar running back. Chris Johnson in Tennessee. Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Without having to carry the full burden of the offense, it will make it easier to succeed. But not much. Locker and Ponder are going to find out how brightly the spotlight shines on the quarterback position. it's like no other position in all of sports. It defines the sport and the teams. And it will define the 2011 NFL Draft Class.
Monday, May 9, 2011
NFC West Draft Grades: Seattle Seahawks
In his first season as head coach, Pete Carroll led the Seattle Seahawks to the NFC West title. Some saw this as a hollow championship, as the Seahawks became the first team to make the playoffs with a losing record. But a win against the defending Super Bowl champions New Orleans Saints led to some vindication for their regular season record.
A strong draft in 2010 looks to be a nucleus for the Seahawks to build upon, but the 2011 Draft looks to be filled with players who may have been reaches at many positions.
The 25th Overall selection brought James Carpenter, an offensive tackle out of Alabama. Carpenter plays on the right side, and with last years #1 pick Russell Okung on the left, they should form bookends for the line for a long time. But Carpenter was a player the Seahawks could have gotten later in the draft, and the possibility of trading down could have brought additional picks.
Seattle did not have a second round pick, and in Round 3 selected John Moffitt, a guard from Wisconsin. Moffitt will add depth to the offensive line, and could start right away. Fourth round picks K.J. Wright and Kris Durham should be able to find a place on special teams right away, but Seattle could have gotten both players later in the draft.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Mark Legree, a defensive back from Appalachian State selected in Round 5. Legree is a ball hawking safety, and should be a contributor on special teams for the Seahawks.
Draft Grade: C
A strong draft in 2010 looks to be a nucleus for the Seahawks to build upon, but the 2011 Draft looks to be filled with players who may have been reaches at many positions.
The 25th Overall selection brought James Carpenter, an offensive tackle out of Alabama. Carpenter plays on the right side, and with last years #1 pick Russell Okung on the left, they should form bookends for the line for a long time. But Carpenter was a player the Seahawks could have gotten later in the draft, and the possibility of trading down could have brought additional picks.
Seattle did not have a second round pick, and in Round 3 selected John Moffitt, a guard from Wisconsin. Moffitt will add depth to the offensive line, and could start right away. Fourth round picks K.J. Wright and Kris Durham should be able to find a place on special teams right away, but Seattle could have gotten both players later in the draft.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Mark Legree, a defensive back from Appalachian State selected in Round 5. Legree is a ball hawking safety, and should be a contributor on special teams for the Seahawks.
Draft Grade: C
NFC West Draft Grades: St. Louis Rams
Years of disappointing play on the field came to a head at the end of the 2009 season when the St. Louis Rams finished with a 1-15 record. The worst record in the league brought the #1 Overall selection of 2010 Draft, and that pick was Sam Bradford. Bradford entered the season with question marks about his health and ability to transition from a spread offense to the pro game. Bradford answered all the doubts with a Rookie of the Year season, and led the Rams to a 7-9 season. A loss in the season finale kept the Rams out of the playoffs, and St. Louis looks to build upon that improvement in 2011.
The need to find weapons for Bradford was a pressing concern, but when Robert Quinn fell to the 14th Overall selection, it was not a pick the Rams would pass up. Quinn may have been a top 3 pick in 2010 if he had come out out early, but he stayed at North Carolina, only to miss the season due to NCAA violations. Concerns over a brain tumor that was diagnosed four years ago scared off some teams, but Quinn has gotten the go ahead to play, and now he gets to line up opposite Chris Long to for a dynamic pass rushing duo for St. Louis.
Rounds 2 and 3 brought Bradford the help he needs to propel the offense along. Tight end Lance Kendricks is a big target with sure hands, and a good enough blocker to help in the run game for Steven Jackson. Austin Pettis is a wide receiver with great size and speed to compliment Donnie Avery, who missed most of the 2010 season due to injuries.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Greg Salas, a wide receiver from Hawaii selected in Round 4. He should line up in the slot, and has one of the best set of hands of any receiver entering the draft.
Draft Grade: B+
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The need to find weapons for Bradford was a pressing concern, but when Robert Quinn fell to the 14th Overall selection, it was not a pick the Rams would pass up. Quinn may have been a top 3 pick in 2010 if he had come out out early, but he stayed at North Carolina, only to miss the season due to NCAA violations. Concerns over a brain tumor that was diagnosed four years ago scared off some teams, but Quinn has gotten the go ahead to play, and now he gets to line up opposite Chris Long to for a dynamic pass rushing duo for St. Louis.
Rounds 2 and 3 brought Bradford the help he needs to propel the offense along. Tight end Lance Kendricks is a big target with sure hands, and a good enough blocker to help in the run game for Steven Jackson. Austin Pettis is a wide receiver with great size and speed to compliment Donnie Avery, who missed most of the 2010 season due to injuries.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Greg Salas, a wide receiver from Hawaii selected in Round 4. He should line up in the slot, and has one of the best set of hands of any receiver entering the draft.
Draft Grade: B+
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NFC West Draft Grades: San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers entered the 2010 NFL Season as the favorite to win the NFC West, but a slow start led to a mid season coaching change, and the result was a 6-10 record. But in the worst division in the NFL, the 49ers missed out of a three way tie for the division title by just one game.
Going into the 2011 NFL Draft, the 49ers were looking to get help on both sides of the ball, with interest at pass rusher and quarterback. They got both. The first round brought Aldon Smith, the talented defensive end from Missouri. He is a better fit for outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, but with some additional strength he could transition to a 4-3 end. But wherever he plays, Smith looks to get to the quarterback with great regularity.
The quarterback situation in San Francisco is as unsettled as any in the league. Alex Smith never did pan out, and though the 49ers may bring back the former #1 Overall selection, he has the makings to be a career backup. So in Round 2, the 49ers traded up to select Colin Kaepernick from Nevada. Kaepernick has all the talent to be a top NFL quarterback. Strong arm, quick release, and elusive runner. But coming from The Pistol system that Nevada used, it will take time for Kaepernick to transition to the pro game.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Daniel Kilgore, an offensive lineman from Appalachian State. Kilgore was dominant on the FCS level, and should be able to make the transition to guard in the pros. The 2010 Draft brought the 49ers Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, and with Kilgore the offensive line looks to be a strength for San Francisco in the years ahead.
Draft Grade: B
Going into the 2011 NFL Draft, the 49ers were looking to get help on both sides of the ball, with interest at pass rusher and quarterback. They got both. The first round brought Aldon Smith, the talented defensive end from Missouri. He is a better fit for outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, but with some additional strength he could transition to a 4-3 end. But wherever he plays, Smith looks to get to the quarterback with great regularity.
The quarterback situation in San Francisco is as unsettled as any in the league. Alex Smith never did pan out, and though the 49ers may bring back the former #1 Overall selection, he has the makings to be a career backup. So in Round 2, the 49ers traded up to select Colin Kaepernick from Nevada. Kaepernick has all the talent to be a top NFL quarterback. Strong arm, quick release, and elusive runner. But coming from The Pistol system that Nevada used, it will take time for Kaepernick to transition to the pro game.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Daniel Kilgore, an offensive lineman from Appalachian State. Kilgore was dominant on the FCS level, and should be able to make the transition to guard in the pros. The 2010 Draft brought the 49ers Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, and with Kilgore the offensive line looks to be a strength for San Francisco in the years ahead.
Draft Grade: B
NFC West Draft Grades: Arizona Cardinals
The Kurt Warner era came to an end with a playoff loss against the Saints at the end of the 2009 season, and the uncertainty as to who would be the quarterback for 2010 led to a disappointing 5-11 record. Concerns as to who would be the leader on the field still linger, but the 5th Overall pick of the NFL Draft was one the Cardinals could not pass up.
Patrick Peterson was seen by many as the best player in the draft. A shutdown cornerback with exceptional size and speed, and one of the premier punt returners in the college game. Peterson has drawn comparisons to Rod Woodson, who was a dominant corner before moving to safety. Peterson could very easily follow the same career path, and if he turns out to be half as good as Woodson then the Cardinals would have picked one of the best players in the draft.
The offense got a boost in Round 2 with the selection of Ryan Williams, a running back from Virginia Tech. Williams is a strong back with a quick burst who can get through the line and make plays in the open field. But injuries limited his play in 2010, or he would have surely been a first round pick. But the position that did not get addressed was quarterback. The Cardinals go into 2011 with the same quarterback rotation that they finished last season with: Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton. Arizona seems content to proceed with these three signal callers, and it will be seen if not drafting Ryan Mallett in Round 3 will come back to haunt them in the long run.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Sam Acho, a defensive end from Texas selected in Round 4. Acho reminds many of his former Longhorn teammate Brian Orakpo, and there was no prospect who could measure up to Acho off the field and in the classroom.
Draft Grade: B+
Patrick Peterson was seen by many as the best player in the draft. A shutdown cornerback with exceptional size and speed, and one of the premier punt returners in the college game. Peterson has drawn comparisons to Rod Woodson, who was a dominant corner before moving to safety. Peterson could very easily follow the same career path, and if he turns out to be half as good as Woodson then the Cardinals would have picked one of the best players in the draft.
The offense got a boost in Round 2 with the selection of Ryan Williams, a running back from Virginia Tech. Williams is a strong back with a quick burst who can get through the line and make plays in the open field. But injuries limited his play in 2010, or he would have surely been a first round pick. But the position that did not get addressed was quarterback. The Cardinals go into 2011 with the same quarterback rotation that they finished last season with: Derek Anderson, Max Hall and John Skelton. Arizona seems content to proceed with these three signal callers, and it will be seen if not drafting Ryan Mallett in Round 3 will come back to haunt them in the long run.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Sam Acho, a defensive end from Texas selected in Round 4. Acho reminds many of his former Longhorn teammate Brian Orakpo, and there was no prospect who could measure up to Acho off the field and in the classroom.
Draft Grade: B+
Sunday, May 8, 2011
AFC West Draft Grades: San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers found themselves in unfamiliar territory at the end of the 2010 season. Out of the playoffs. The Chargers had a statistical anomaly in the fact that they led the league in both offense and defense, but only finished 8-8.
The defense got help in the first two rounds of the 2011 Draft. Corey Liuget, a defensive tackle fro Illinois, was the pick in Round 1. Liuget is strong against the run and quick to penetrate into the backfield. He looks to be an anchor at the center of the defense for San Diego for years.
The second round got help for the secondary and linebacking corps with the selection of Marcus Gilchrist, a safety out of Clemson, and Jonas Mouton, an outside linebacker from Michigan. Both players can defend against the pass and run, and should be a help immediately for a special teams unit that was the cause of so much heartache in San Diego last season.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Jordan Todman, a running back out of Connecticut selected in Round 6. Todman is a versatile runner/receiver, who fits in the mold of Darren Sproles, who has been a valuable asset to the Chargers offense.
Draft Grade: B
The defense got help in the first two rounds of the 2011 Draft. Corey Liuget, a defensive tackle fro Illinois, was the pick in Round 1. Liuget is strong against the run and quick to penetrate into the backfield. He looks to be an anchor at the center of the defense for San Diego for years.
The second round got help for the secondary and linebacking corps with the selection of Marcus Gilchrist, a safety out of Clemson, and Jonas Mouton, an outside linebacker from Michigan. Both players can defend against the pass and run, and should be a help immediately for a special teams unit that was the cause of so much heartache in San Diego last season.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Jordan Todman, a running back out of Connecticut selected in Round 6. Todman is a versatile runner/receiver, who fits in the mold of Darren Sproles, who has been a valuable asset to the Chargers offense.
Draft Grade: B
AFC West Draft Grades: Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders had their best season since appearing in the Super Bowl after the 2002 season, and a good part of that success was a strong draft class that was able to make an impact right away. It was a draft that went against the grain of what the Raiders had been doing on draft day, but in 2011 they went back to their old ways.
The Raiders were the only team not to have a first round selection because of the trade to acquire Richard Seymour from New England. With their first pick coming in Round 2, the Raiders selected Stefan Wisniewski, a center out of Penn State. Wisniewski can play center or guard, and he will be looked upon to anchor the line for quarterback Jason Campbell and running back Darren McFadden.
The rest of the draft was typical Raiders-how much speed can we get. DeMarcus Van Dyke and Taiwan Jones were the fastest players at their positions in the draft, but Van Dyke was a reach for the third round and Jones is an undersized third down back. They seemed to be selected for their speed only, and it will be seen if they can contribute more than what Darrius Heyward-Bey has so far for the Silver and Black.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be David Ausberry, a wide receiver out of USC. Ausberry is a big target, and he can find a place on the Raiders as he can catch the ball, which many Raiders speed receivers have had a bit of trouble doing lately.
Draft Grade: C-
The Raiders were the only team not to have a first round selection because of the trade to acquire Richard Seymour from New England. With their first pick coming in Round 2, the Raiders selected Stefan Wisniewski, a center out of Penn State. Wisniewski can play center or guard, and he will be looked upon to anchor the line for quarterback Jason Campbell and running back Darren McFadden.
The rest of the draft was typical Raiders-how much speed can we get. DeMarcus Van Dyke and Taiwan Jones were the fastest players at their positions in the draft, but Van Dyke was a reach for the third round and Jones is an undersized third down back. They seemed to be selected for their speed only, and it will be seen if they can contribute more than what Darrius Heyward-Bey has so far for the Silver and Black.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be David Ausberry, a wide receiver out of USC. Ausberry is a big target, and he can find a place on the Raiders as he can catch the ball, which many Raiders speed receivers have had a bit of trouble doing lately.
Draft Grade: C-
AFC West Draft Grades: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the big surprises of the 2010 NFL season. They started fast and wound up winning the AFC West with a 10-6 record. Their season came to an end with a loss to Baltimore in the playoffs, and the Chiefs are looking to build upon their successes going into 2011.
The Chiefs had a very strong draft in 2010, and followed up with another this year. In Round 1, they were able to add a playmaking receiver to team with Dwayne Bowe with the addition of Jonathon Baldwin from Pittsburgh. He is a tall target and very athletic for his size, and if he shows a work ethic and professionalism that Todd Haley has brought to Kansas City then quarterback Matt Cassell will have another dangerous target on the outside which will help to open up the running game for Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
The offensive line got some much needed help in Round 2 with the selection of Rodney Hudson, a center out of Florida State. Hudson can play either guard and center, and will help to open holes for the Chiefs ground game. The third round brought depth to the defensive line in Allen Bailey from Miami. Bailey can play either tackle or end, and can play the positions in both a 3-4 and 4-3 defense.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Jalil Brown, a defensive back from Colorado picked in Round 4. Brown played in the shadow of Jimmy Smith at Colorado, but has the ability to be a contributing nickel back and eventually a starter down the road.
Draft Grade: A
The Chiefs had a very strong draft in 2010, and followed up with another this year. In Round 1, they were able to add a playmaking receiver to team with Dwayne Bowe with the addition of Jonathon Baldwin from Pittsburgh. He is a tall target and very athletic for his size, and if he shows a work ethic and professionalism that Todd Haley has brought to Kansas City then quarterback Matt Cassell will have another dangerous target on the outside which will help to open up the running game for Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
The offensive line got some much needed help in Round 2 with the selection of Rodney Hudson, a center out of Florida State. Hudson can play either guard and center, and will help to open holes for the Chiefs ground game. The third round brought depth to the defensive line in Allen Bailey from Miami. Bailey can play either tackle or end, and can play the positions in both a 3-4 and 4-3 defense.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Jalil Brown, a defensive back from Colorado picked in Round 4. Brown played in the shadow of Jimmy Smith at Colorado, but has the ability to be a contributing nickel back and eventually a starter down the road.
Draft Grade: A
AFC West Draft Grades: Denver Broncos
The Josh McDaniels era in Denver got off to an incredible start, then came crashing down just as fast. After winning his first six games in 2009, McDaniels was fired near the end of a 4-12 season, which landed the Broncos in the second slot of the 2011 NFL Draft.
The Broncos offense was as potent as ever, but the defense was terrible. It did not help that Elvis Dumervil, who recorded 17 sacks in 2009, was sidelined the entire season due to injury. Dumervil is expected to return, and with the second overall selection in the draft Denver added the best pass rusher on the board in Von Miller, the outside linebacker from Texas A&M. Miller was rated as one of the three best prospects in the draft, and he will be a three down player who can defend against the run as well as get after the quarterback. With Miller coming from one side and Dumervil the other, the Broncos will have a formidable pass rush for new head coach John Fox.
The pass defense got help in Round 2 with the selection of Rahim Moore, a safety from UCLA. Moore was the top rated safety in the draft, and is an instinctive playmaker with a knack for getting to the ball. He will team with fourth round pick Quinton Carter to for a safety combo in Denver for many years.
The offensive line got an upgrade with the selection of Orlando Franklin, a tackle out of Miami. Ryan Clady has the left side anchored, and Franklin will work the right to protect either Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow, whoever winds up starting for Denver in 2011.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Virgil Green, a tight end selected in Round 7 out of Nevada. Green fought injuries throughout his career, but he is a talented receiver who will be a sure handed option for the Broncos offense.
Draft Grade: B+
The Broncos offense was as potent as ever, but the defense was terrible. It did not help that Elvis Dumervil, who recorded 17 sacks in 2009, was sidelined the entire season due to injury. Dumervil is expected to return, and with the second overall selection in the draft Denver added the best pass rusher on the board in Von Miller, the outside linebacker from Texas A&M. Miller was rated as one of the three best prospects in the draft, and he will be a three down player who can defend against the run as well as get after the quarterback. With Miller coming from one side and Dumervil the other, the Broncos will have a formidable pass rush for new head coach John Fox.
The pass defense got help in Round 2 with the selection of Rahim Moore, a safety from UCLA. Moore was the top rated safety in the draft, and is an instinctive playmaker with a knack for getting to the ball. He will team with fourth round pick Quinton Carter to for a safety combo in Denver for many years.
The offensive line got an upgrade with the selection of Orlando Franklin, a tackle out of Miami. Ryan Clady has the left side anchored, and Franklin will work the right to protect either Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow, whoever winds up starting for Denver in 2011.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Virgil Green, a tight end selected in Round 7 out of Nevada. Green fought injuries throughout his career, but he is a talented receiver who will be a sure handed option for the Broncos offense.
Draft Grade: B+
Saturday, May 7, 2011
NFC South Draft Grades: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the most surprising teams in the NFL during the 2010 season. They improved by seven victories and nearly made the playoffs, with only a late season loss at home against Detroit keeping them out. Tampa Bay went into the draft looking for the pieces to get them into the playoffs this season.
In 2010, the Bucs got the interior of their defensive line with the selection of Gerald McCoy in Round 1 and Brian Price in Round 2. This year, they got the ends with Adrian Clayborn being taken in the first round, and Da'Quan Bowers falling all the way to them with the 51st overall selection in the bottom half of the second round. But there are health concerns everywhere. McCoy tore a biceps last season, and Price suffered a pelvic fracture. The injury concerns with Bowers and his knee are well chronicled. It looks as if Clayborn, with Erb's Palsy in his right shoulder and arm, looks to be the rick of the defense. If the four young stars can stay healthy and perform to their expectations, the Bucs will have one of the best young defensive lines the league has seen in a long time.
The defense also got help later in the draft with the selection of Mason Foster in Round 3 and Ahmad Black in round 5. Foster brings a high football IQ along with playmaking ability to a young defense, and Black, though he is undersized for safety, is another sure tackler and has excellent coverage skills.
A late round sleeper looks to be Luke Stocker, a tight end out of Tennessee selected in Round 4. Stocker is a big target who can line up in tight or out wide, and has great hands and athletic ability. Kellen Winslow has battled injuries throughout his career, and Stocker gives Josh Freeman yet another target for the Bucs offense.
Draft Grade: B+
In 2010, the Bucs got the interior of their defensive line with the selection of Gerald McCoy in Round 1 and Brian Price in Round 2. This year, they got the ends with Adrian Clayborn being taken in the first round, and Da'Quan Bowers falling all the way to them with the 51st overall selection in the bottom half of the second round. But there are health concerns everywhere. McCoy tore a biceps last season, and Price suffered a pelvic fracture. The injury concerns with Bowers and his knee are well chronicled. It looks as if Clayborn, with Erb's Palsy in his right shoulder and arm, looks to be the rick of the defense. If the four young stars can stay healthy and perform to their expectations, the Bucs will have one of the best young defensive lines the league has seen in a long time.
The defense also got help later in the draft with the selection of Mason Foster in Round 3 and Ahmad Black in round 5. Foster brings a high football IQ along with playmaking ability to a young defense, and Black, though he is undersized for safety, is another sure tackler and has excellent coverage skills.
A late round sleeper looks to be Luke Stocker, a tight end out of Tennessee selected in Round 4. Stocker is a big target who can line up in tight or out wide, and has great hands and athletic ability. Kellen Winslow has battled injuries throughout his career, and Stocker gives Josh Freeman yet another target for the Bucs offense.
Draft Grade: B+
NFC South Draft Grades: New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints entered the 2010 NFL Season as the defending Super Bowl Champions, and even though they posted a 12-4 record, a string of key injuries led to a wild card berth, then a surprising loss at Seattle in the playoffs. The Saints went into the draft with intentions of getting back to the Super Bowl, and they had one of the best drafts of any team in the NFL.
The defense got an early gift when Cameron Jordan fell all the way to the Saints and the 24th overall selection. Jordan is an athletic defensive end, and many saw him going in the first third of Round 1. Then the Saints made a trade with New England to acquire a second pick in the first round, and hit again with Mark Ingram, the running back from Alabama who won the Heisman Trophy in 2009. Injuries decimated the Saints backfield, and though Ingram suffered his own injury last season, he looks to be the long term answer behind Drew Brees in the backfield.
New Orleans had two picks in Round 3, and the defense got even more help. Martez Wilson was one of the highest rated middle linebackers going into the draft. Fast, athletic, and a sure tackler, Wilson should be able to find ample playing time right away. Later in Round 3, the Saints selected Johnny Patrick, a cornerback out of Louisville. Patrick has all the skills needed to succeed at corner, and should also be able to find a spot in a defensive secondary that is in need of a playmaker.
A late round sleeper looks to be Greg Romeus, a defensive end from Pittsburgh selected in Round 7. Romeus was injured much of 2010, but many saw him with talent to go on Day 2 of the draft. If he can stay healthy, Romeus should be a valuable contributor for the Saints.
Draft Grade: A
The defense got an early gift when Cameron Jordan fell all the way to the Saints and the 24th overall selection. Jordan is an athletic defensive end, and many saw him going in the first third of Round 1. Then the Saints made a trade with New England to acquire a second pick in the first round, and hit again with Mark Ingram, the running back from Alabama who won the Heisman Trophy in 2009. Injuries decimated the Saints backfield, and though Ingram suffered his own injury last season, he looks to be the long term answer behind Drew Brees in the backfield.
New Orleans had two picks in Round 3, and the defense got even more help. Martez Wilson was one of the highest rated middle linebackers going into the draft. Fast, athletic, and a sure tackler, Wilson should be able to find ample playing time right away. Later in Round 3, the Saints selected Johnny Patrick, a cornerback out of Louisville. Patrick has all the skills needed to succeed at corner, and should also be able to find a spot in a defensive secondary that is in need of a playmaker.
A late round sleeper looks to be Greg Romeus, a defensive end from Pittsburgh selected in Round 7. Romeus was injured much of 2010, but many saw him with talent to go on Day 2 of the draft. If he can stay healthy, Romeus should be a valuable contributor for the Saints.
Draft Grade: A
NFC South Draft Grades: Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers held the first overall selection of the 2011 NFL Draft, and to no surprise they picked Cam Newton, the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback out of Auburn. But even then, there was skepticism concerning the pick.
Newton has all the tools to be a top level quarterback in the NFL. He also has the liabilities that can hold him back. He has size, speed, arm strength and looks like he was chiseled by Michelangelo out of solid marble. But he comes to the pros out of a spread offense, where his accuracy was questionable at times and he was as dependent on his running as his passing to succeed. Running quarterbacks take a beating in the NFL, and with the holes in the Panthers line just how much will Newton be able to take.
The Panthers also have Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, and the second round pick from 2010, while he never did look comfortable on the field, didn't really get a chance either. He went into the season second on the depth chart behind Matt Moore. Which means he did not get the lion's share of reps during training camp or play with the first string in the preseason. It will be interesting to see who looks the best this coming season for the Panthers.
The Panthers did not have a pick in Round 2 due to a trade the previous draft, but they got help for the defense later in Round 3. Terrell McClain and Sione Fua are both defensive tackles and could have an opportunity to play right away.
A late round sleeper looks to be Lee Ziemba, an offensive tackle out of Auburn. Zeimba was a four year starter in college, and could move into the starting lineup as the Panthers line gave up 50 sacks in 2010.
Draft Grade: C
Newton has all the tools to be a top level quarterback in the NFL. He also has the liabilities that can hold him back. He has size, speed, arm strength and looks like he was chiseled by Michelangelo out of solid marble. But he comes to the pros out of a spread offense, where his accuracy was questionable at times and he was as dependent on his running as his passing to succeed. Running quarterbacks take a beating in the NFL, and with the holes in the Panthers line just how much will Newton be able to take.
The Panthers also have Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, and the second round pick from 2010, while he never did look comfortable on the field, didn't really get a chance either. He went into the season second on the depth chart behind Matt Moore. Which means he did not get the lion's share of reps during training camp or play with the first string in the preseason. It will be interesting to see who looks the best this coming season for the Panthers.
The Panthers did not have a pick in Round 2 due to a trade the previous draft, but they got help for the defense later in Round 3. Terrell McClain and Sione Fua are both defensive tackles and could have an opportunity to play right away.
A late round sleeper looks to be Lee Ziemba, an offensive tackle out of Auburn. Zeimba was a four year starter in college, and could move into the starting lineup as the Panthers line gave up 50 sacks in 2010.
Draft Grade: C
NFC South Draft Grades: Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of a season where they finished with the best record in the NFC, but were blown out in the Divisional Playoff Round by Green Bay. The Falcons entered the 2011 NFL Draft with the 27th Overall Selection, but made the trade that shows they are going all in for the championship next season.
With Matt Ryan at the top of his game, Michael Turner in the backfield, Roddy White becoming one of the best wideouts in the game, and Tony Gonzalez on his way to the Hall of Fame, Atlanta traded five draft picks to Cleveland to move into the 6th slot and select Julio Jones, the playmaking wide receiver out of Alabama. Jones has the size, and ran the 40 in under 4.40 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine with a fractured foot. The Falcons are hoping he is the missing piece on offense to get them over the top.
But the downside of the Jones trade was the loss of draft picks. But Atlanta got another weapon for it's offense in Round 5 with the selection of Jacquizz Rodgers out of Oregon State. Rodgers was the ultimate change of pace back going into the draft, and he will be the speedy and elusive playmaker out of the backfield that teams will have trouble gameplanning for down the road.
A late round sleeper looks to be Andrew Jackson, a guard out of Fresno State selected in the sixth round. Jackson provides depth to the offensive line and could emerge as a starter down the road.
Draft Grade: B
With Matt Ryan at the top of his game, Michael Turner in the backfield, Roddy White becoming one of the best wideouts in the game, and Tony Gonzalez on his way to the Hall of Fame, Atlanta traded five draft picks to Cleveland to move into the 6th slot and select Julio Jones, the playmaking wide receiver out of Alabama. Jones has the size, and ran the 40 in under 4.40 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine with a fractured foot. The Falcons are hoping he is the missing piece on offense to get them over the top.
But the downside of the Jones trade was the loss of draft picks. But Atlanta got another weapon for it's offense in Round 5 with the selection of Jacquizz Rodgers out of Oregon State. Rodgers was the ultimate change of pace back going into the draft, and he will be the speedy and elusive playmaker out of the backfield that teams will have trouble gameplanning for down the road.
A late round sleeper looks to be Andrew Jackson, a guard out of Fresno State selected in the sixth round. Jackson provides depth to the offensive line and could emerge as a starter down the road.
Draft Grade: B
Friday, May 6, 2011
AFC South Draft Grades: Tennessee Titans
The Vince Young era has come to an end in Tennessee, and the Titans made the first truly surprising move of the draft with the selection of Jake Locker at #8 overall. There is no doubting Locker's athletic ability, but his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. But he was the quarterback the Titans targeted, and they rolled the dice on the signal caller out of Washington.
Round Two brought a steal in Akeem Ayers, the linebacker from UCLA. Ayers was looked at being a mid to late first round pick by most draftniks, and to get him where they did was a boon for the Titans. Ayers should start right away at the outside linebacker position for Tennessee.
The third round brought Jurrell Casey, a defensive tackle from USC. Casey is a one gap penetrator who can work his way into the offensive backfield. He will need to bulk up to stop the run, but Tennessee has had a long line of quality defensive tackles and they should be able to develop his talent.
A late round sleeper looks to be Colin McCarthy, a middle linebacker from Miami. McCarthy is a physical, instinctive player who is versatile enough to play inside and outside.
Draft Grade: B+
Round Two brought a steal in Akeem Ayers, the linebacker from UCLA. Ayers was looked at being a mid to late first round pick by most draftniks, and to get him where they did was a boon for the Titans. Ayers should start right away at the outside linebacker position for Tennessee.
The third round brought Jurrell Casey, a defensive tackle from USC. Casey is a one gap penetrator who can work his way into the offensive backfield. He will need to bulk up to stop the run, but Tennessee has had a long line of quality defensive tackles and they should be able to develop his talent.
A late round sleeper looks to be Colin McCarthy, a middle linebacker from Miami. McCarthy is a physical, instinctive player who is versatile enough to play inside and outside.
Draft Grade: B+
AFC South Draft Grades: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars had a shot at the AFC South title in 2010, but finished the season with three straight losses that led to an 8-8 record. The pass rush was one of the worst in the league, and with the multitude of defensive lineman who can get to the quarterback, the Jaguars had a chance to address that situation right away.
Jacksonville traded with Washington to move into the 10th overall slot, and with that pick the Jags picked the top rated quarterback of the draft in Blaine Gabbert. J.J. Watt and Nick Fairley were still on the board, and I'm sure many Jaguars fans are still scratching their heads. Yes, Gabbert has the potential to be a top quarterback, but Jacksonville has David Garrard under contract that was extended a couple years ago, and Gabbert does not look to move into the lineup right away. Will it pay off down the road? Most likely. Does trading up and giving away picks this year help the Jaguars in 2011? Not likely.
Trades left Jacksonville with only five picks in the 2011 Draft, and their second pick was in Round 3 with the selection of Will Rackley, a guard out of Lehigh. Rackley is a small school project, but he has the ability to develop into a quality lineman.
A late round sleeper looks to be Chris Prosinsik, a defensive back out of Wyoming selected in the 4th Round. Prosinski is a strong run support safety, and he should contribute on special teams right away.
Draft Grade: C-
Jacksonville traded with Washington to move into the 10th overall slot, and with that pick the Jags picked the top rated quarterback of the draft in Blaine Gabbert. J.J. Watt and Nick Fairley were still on the board, and I'm sure many Jaguars fans are still scratching their heads. Yes, Gabbert has the potential to be a top quarterback, but Jacksonville has David Garrard under contract that was extended a couple years ago, and Gabbert does not look to move into the lineup right away. Will it pay off down the road? Most likely. Does trading up and giving away picks this year help the Jaguars in 2011? Not likely.
Trades left Jacksonville with only five picks in the 2011 Draft, and their second pick was in Round 3 with the selection of Will Rackley, a guard out of Lehigh. Rackley is a small school project, but he has the ability to develop into a quality lineman.
A late round sleeper looks to be Chris Prosinsik, a defensive back out of Wyoming selected in the 4th Round. Prosinski is a strong run support safety, and he should contribute on special teams right away.
Draft Grade: C-
AFC South Draft Grades: Indianapolis Colts
For many teams, a 10-6 season and division title would be a success. Not in Indianapolis. The Colts were coming off of an AFC Conference title, and a streak of seven straight seasons with 12 or more victories. But injuries caught up with the Colts, and even Peyton Manning couldn't get them past the Jets in the playoffs.
The Colts went into the draft looking to protect it's most valuable asset, and Manning now has two young lineman to protect him. Anthony Castonzo was perhaps the most pro ready tackle entering the draft, and Benjamin Ijalana is a mauler who will line up at guard. The two lineman give the Colts an infusion of youth, and should keep Manning upright and able to pick apart defenses for a long time.
The interior of the defensive line got help with the selection of Drake Nevis in the third round out of LSU. Nevis is an explosive penetrator who can get into the backfield, and with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the outside, he gives the opponents offense another weapon to worry about on both runs and passes.
A late round sleeper looks to be Delone Carter, a running back out of Syracuse. Carter is a power back who should flourish running behind his fellow rookies up front, and the Colts running game has been a revolving door leading to the injured list with Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart. Carter could get his chance sooner rather than later.
Draft Grade: B+
The Colts went into the draft looking to protect it's most valuable asset, and Manning now has two young lineman to protect him. Anthony Castonzo was perhaps the most pro ready tackle entering the draft, and Benjamin Ijalana is a mauler who will line up at guard. The two lineman give the Colts an infusion of youth, and should keep Manning upright and able to pick apart defenses for a long time.
The interior of the defensive line got help with the selection of Drake Nevis in the third round out of LSU. Nevis is an explosive penetrator who can get into the backfield, and with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the outside, he gives the opponents offense another weapon to worry about on both runs and passes.
A late round sleeper looks to be Delone Carter, a running back out of Syracuse. Carter is a power back who should flourish running behind his fellow rookies up front, and the Colts running game has been a revolving door leading to the injured list with Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart. Carter could get his chance sooner rather than later.
Draft Grade: B+
AFC South Draft Grades: Houston Texans
The Houston Texans come off of a season where their offense was even more productive than ever, with the development of Arian Foster into the league rushing champion. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson continued to shine, but once again the defense let them down, and the result was a 6-10 finish.
The defense was the focus going into the 2011 NFL Draft, and the Texans hit on all three levels. The first round brought J.J. Watt, the defensive end from Wisconsin. Watt has the size, speed, strength and motor to excel in Houston's new 3-4 scheme, and along with Mario Williams he should be an anchor on the defense for years.
Round 2 brought a pass rushing linebacker in Brooks Reed from Arizona. Reed is an outside speed rusher that many saw as a late first round pick. Reed should move into an outside linebacker position, and it looks as if Williams may line up on the opposite side. With one of the leagues premier pass rushers on the opposite side of the field, opportunities to rush the quarterback should present themselves for Reed.
The defensive secondary got help in Round 3 with the selection of Brandon Harris, a cornerback out of Miami. Harris may be a bit undersized by NFL standards, but he is a big hitter and tackler, and has the speed to cover down the field. Harris was seen as a 1st Round pick on many mock drafts, and the Texans got a steal in the third round.
Two late round sleepers look to be Rashad Carmichael and Shiloh Keo, defensive backs selected in rounds 4 and 5, respectively. The Texans secondary was one of the worst in the NFL, and along with Harris both players have a chance to rebuild the defensive backfield.
Draft Grade: B+
The defense was the focus going into the 2011 NFL Draft, and the Texans hit on all three levels. The first round brought J.J. Watt, the defensive end from Wisconsin. Watt has the size, speed, strength and motor to excel in Houston's new 3-4 scheme, and along with Mario Williams he should be an anchor on the defense for years.
Round 2 brought a pass rushing linebacker in Brooks Reed from Arizona. Reed is an outside speed rusher that many saw as a late first round pick. Reed should move into an outside linebacker position, and it looks as if Williams may line up on the opposite side. With one of the leagues premier pass rushers on the opposite side of the field, opportunities to rush the quarterback should present themselves for Reed.
The defensive secondary got help in Round 3 with the selection of Brandon Harris, a cornerback out of Miami. Harris may be a bit undersized by NFL standards, but he is a big hitter and tackler, and has the speed to cover down the field. Harris was seen as a 1st Round pick on many mock drafts, and the Texans got a steal in the third round.
Two late round sleepers look to be Rashad Carmichael and Shiloh Keo, defensive backs selected in rounds 4 and 5, respectively. The Texans secondary was one of the worst in the NFL, and along with Harris both players have a chance to rebuild the defensive backfield.
Draft Grade: B+
Thursday, May 5, 2011
NFC North Draft Grades: Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings were looking to build on the 2009 season when the made it an interception away from the Super Bowl. Then things got strange, weird and bad all at the same time.
Brett Favre finally had age catch up with him and his incredible consecutive games played streak came to an end at 297. Percy Harvin suffered from migraines all season, and Sidney Rice suffered a severe hip injury. Then the roof caved in. Literally. A snowstorm of epic proportions, even for Minnesota, caved in the roof of the Metrodome. The Vikings final two home games were played in Detroit and outside at the University of Minnesota.
Going into the draft, the Vikings starting quarterback who was actually under contract was Joe Webb. There was no doubt that Minnesota would draft a quarterback, but they got gasps from a lot of observers when they called the name of Christian Ponder at #12 overall. It may have been a case of the Vikings not being able to find a trading partner and panicking that the quarterback they wanted may not be there in Round 2. Ponder was seen as a reach, but he fits the offense that Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave is going to install, and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield the transition should be made easier.
In Round 2, many thought the Vikings would look to upgrade the offensive line, defensive line, or defensive secondary. The pick turned out to be Kyle Rudolph, the tight end out of Notre Dame. Rudolph was the top rated tight end in the draft, and he will eventually be the successor to Visanthe Shiancoe. In Round 4, the Vikings got help on the defensive line with the selection of Christian Ballard out of Iowa. Ballard saw his draft stock fall when word of a possible failed drug test at the NFL Combine started to make the rounds. Ballard has first round talent and should move into the lineup if he can stay out of trouble.
A late round sleeper looks to be Demarcus Love, an offensive lineman selected in Round 6 out of Arkansas. Love looks to move into the interior of the line and is seen as a developmental project but with the athletic upside to make the move.
Draft Grade: C+
Brett Favre finally had age catch up with him and his incredible consecutive games played streak came to an end at 297. Percy Harvin suffered from migraines all season, and Sidney Rice suffered a severe hip injury. Then the roof caved in. Literally. A snowstorm of epic proportions, even for Minnesota, caved in the roof of the Metrodome. The Vikings final two home games were played in Detroit and outside at the University of Minnesota.
Going into the draft, the Vikings starting quarterback who was actually under contract was Joe Webb. There was no doubt that Minnesota would draft a quarterback, but they got gasps from a lot of observers when they called the name of Christian Ponder at #12 overall. It may have been a case of the Vikings not being able to find a trading partner and panicking that the quarterback they wanted may not be there in Round 2. Ponder was seen as a reach, but he fits the offense that Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave is going to install, and with Adrian Peterson in the backfield the transition should be made easier.
In Round 2, many thought the Vikings would look to upgrade the offensive line, defensive line, or defensive secondary. The pick turned out to be Kyle Rudolph, the tight end out of Notre Dame. Rudolph was the top rated tight end in the draft, and he will eventually be the successor to Visanthe Shiancoe. In Round 4, the Vikings got help on the defensive line with the selection of Christian Ballard out of Iowa. Ballard saw his draft stock fall when word of a possible failed drug test at the NFL Combine started to make the rounds. Ballard has first round talent and should move into the lineup if he can stay out of trouble.
A late round sleeper looks to be Demarcus Love, an offensive lineman selected in Round 6 out of Arkansas. Love looks to move into the interior of the line and is seen as a developmental project but with the athletic upside to make the move.
Draft Grade: C+
NFC North Draft Grades: Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers made the NFC Playoffs as a 6th seed, and made it because of a loss by the Giants to Philadelphia on a punt return and by a Tampa Bay loss at home late in the season to Detroit. But once they got in, they showed just how well they played during the 2010 NFL season. They rode the hot hand of Aaron Rodgers and the aggressive defensive play of Clay Matthews all the way to a Super Bowl victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Packers have always been very good at the draft, and this year is no exception.
The first round brought Derek Sherrod, the offensive tackle from Mississippi State. Sherrod was seen by some as a mid first round pick, and now the Packers can pair him up with last years first round pick Bryan Bulaga to protect Rodgers for years to come.
Rounds 2 and 3 brought more playmakers for the offense. Randall Cobb is a versatile offensive weapon, who has played quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Alex Green gives the backfield more depth after they were hit hard by injuries last season.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be D.J. Williams, a tight end out of Arkansas selected in Round 5. Williams was the John Mackey Award winner last season as the best collegiate tight end, and Jermichael Finley was injured for much of the stretch drive towards the Super Bowl.
Draft Grade: B+
The first round brought Derek Sherrod, the offensive tackle from Mississippi State. Sherrod was seen by some as a mid first round pick, and now the Packers can pair him up with last years first round pick Bryan Bulaga to protect Rodgers for years to come.
Rounds 2 and 3 brought more playmakers for the offense. Randall Cobb is a versatile offensive weapon, who has played quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Alex Green gives the backfield more depth after they were hit hard by injuries last season.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be D.J. Williams, a tight end out of Arkansas selected in Round 5. Williams was the John Mackey Award winner last season as the best collegiate tight end, and Jermichael Finley was injured for much of the stretch drive towards the Super Bowl.
Draft Grade: B+
NFC North Draft Grades: Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have had very good drafts the previous two seasons, and this year was just as good. Selecting 13th, the Lions were hoping that Prince Amukamara would still be there so they could select the Nebraska star to shore up a porous defensive backfield. Amukamara was there, but so was a player they could not pass up.
Nick Fairley, seen by many as the unanimous #1 Overall selection when the Mock Draft season started, was on the board at #13. As much as Detroit wanted Amukamara, they could not pass on Fairley. They now have perhaps the best defensive tackle combination in the NFL, with Fairley lining up next to Pro Bowler Ndamukong Suh. Two athletic, disruptive tackles with a serious mean streak. There are centers and guards looking at their schedules next season to see if they are going to face this new dynamic duo. The Lions pass defense got better because they will be putting so much pressure up the middle that the quarterbacks will not have nearly as much time to get the ball away.
In Round 2, Detroit got two more playmakers for their ever improving offense. Titus Young is the quick wide receiver who should line up opposite Calvin Johnson, and later in the round brought Mikel Leshoure, the power running back from Illinois. Leshoure will bring the north-south between the tackles game that will compliment Jahvid Best and his quickness on the outside.
A late round sleeper looks to be Douglas Houge, a linebacker selected in Round 5 out of Syracuse. He will contribute on special teams and could move into the starting lineup down the road.
Draft Grade: A
Nick Fairley, seen by many as the unanimous #1 Overall selection when the Mock Draft season started, was on the board at #13. As much as Detroit wanted Amukamara, they could not pass on Fairley. They now have perhaps the best defensive tackle combination in the NFL, with Fairley lining up next to Pro Bowler Ndamukong Suh. Two athletic, disruptive tackles with a serious mean streak. There are centers and guards looking at their schedules next season to see if they are going to face this new dynamic duo. The Lions pass defense got better because they will be putting so much pressure up the middle that the quarterbacks will not have nearly as much time to get the ball away.
In Round 2, Detroit got two more playmakers for their ever improving offense. Titus Young is the quick wide receiver who should line up opposite Calvin Johnson, and later in the round brought Mikel Leshoure, the power running back from Illinois. Leshoure will bring the north-south between the tackles game that will compliment Jahvid Best and his quickness on the outside.
A late round sleeper looks to be Douglas Houge, a linebacker selected in Round 5 out of Syracuse. He will contribute on special teams and could move into the starting lineup down the road.
Draft Grade: A
NFC North Draft Grades: Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears made a significant leap in the second season of the Jay Cutler era, making it to the NFC Championship game before falling to the Green Bay Packers. The defense was as stout as ever, but the offense was lacking depth on the offensive line and big plays on the outside. One area was fixed, the other ignored.
After a failed trade with the Baltimore Ravens, the Bears were still able to select the player they wanted in Round 1 when they were picked Gabe Carimi, the offensive tackle out of Wisconsin. Many had Carimi rated at either the best or second best tackle, and he will step in right away to open holes for Matt Forte and protect Cutler, who has spent way too much time in his two seasons on his backside.
The second round brought Chicago Stephen Paea, the defensive tackle out of Oregon State. Paea set the record for bench press reps at the NFL Scouting Combine, and he should move into the line in place of Tommie Harris, who is unlikely to return. But the receiving corps is still woefully thin. Cutler has the talent to be a top flight quarterback, but his top target is still Devin Hester, who is a kick returner who started out at cornerback and was converted to wideout. The Bears may look to add a receiver in free agency, but there was talent on the outside to be found and they didn't use a single pick on the position.
A late round sleeper looks to be James Thomas, a linebacker out of West Virginia selected in Round 6. Thomas will be a fixture on special teams, but he is a very good fit for the Tampa-2 defense the Bears employ, and that could help him move into the starting lineup eventually.
Draft Grade: C+
After a failed trade with the Baltimore Ravens, the Bears were still able to select the player they wanted in Round 1 when they were picked Gabe Carimi, the offensive tackle out of Wisconsin. Many had Carimi rated at either the best or second best tackle, and he will step in right away to open holes for Matt Forte and protect Cutler, who has spent way too much time in his two seasons on his backside.
The second round brought Chicago Stephen Paea, the defensive tackle out of Oregon State. Paea set the record for bench press reps at the NFL Scouting Combine, and he should move into the line in place of Tommie Harris, who is unlikely to return. But the receiving corps is still woefully thin. Cutler has the talent to be a top flight quarterback, but his top target is still Devin Hester, who is a kick returner who started out at cornerback and was converted to wideout. The Bears may look to add a receiver in free agency, but there was talent on the outside to be found and they didn't use a single pick on the position.
A late round sleeper looks to be James Thomas, a linebacker out of West Virginia selected in Round 6. Thomas will be a fixture on special teams, but he is a very good fit for the Tampa-2 defense the Bears employ, and that could help him move into the starting lineup eventually.
Draft Grade: C+
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
AFC North Draft Grades: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2011 NFL Season as the reigning AFC Champions, but after the Green Bay Packers offense did a number on them in the Super Bowl, they were looking to upgrade and add depth to the defense.
The Steelers selection of Cameron Heyward will be a valuable addition to the defensive line. Heyward is a prototype 3-4 end, and his ability to rush the passer will help free up the Steelers vaunted linebacking corps get to the quarterback.
The selection of Marcus Gilbert will help shore up the offensive line, bu the may have been a bit of a reach in Round 2. The defensive secondary was an area of concern, but the Steelers didn't go for a defensive back until Round 3 with Curtis Brown out of Texas, and also again in Round 4 with the selection of Cortez Allen out of The Citadel. The Steelers went for depth in the secondary, and it will need to be seen if they may have been better served to go for the bigger impact player at that position.
A late round sleeper looks to be Keith Williams, an offensive lineman out of Nebraska selected in Round 6. Williams is seen as a project, but he is very athletic and has tremendous work ethic.
The Steelers selection of Cameron Heyward will be a valuable addition to the defensive line. Heyward is a prototype 3-4 end, and his ability to rush the passer will help free up the Steelers vaunted linebacking corps get to the quarterback.
The selection of Marcus Gilbert will help shore up the offensive line, bu the may have been a bit of a reach in Round 2. The defensive secondary was an area of concern, but the Steelers didn't go for a defensive back until Round 3 with Curtis Brown out of Texas, and also again in Round 4 with the selection of Cortez Allen out of The Citadel. The Steelers went for depth in the secondary, and it will need to be seen if they may have been better served to go for the bigger impact player at that position.
A late round sleeper looks to be Keith Williams, an offensive lineman out of Nebraska selected in Round 6. Williams is seen as a project, but he is very athletic and has tremendous work ethic.
AFC North Draft Grades: Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns entered the 2011 NFL Draft with the sixth overall selection, but the package offered by the Atlanta Falcons was too tempting to pass up. They moved down to #27, then back up to #21, and wound up with two picks in rounds 2, 4 and 5 each.
In Round 1, the Browns selected Phil Taylor, and big defensive tackle out of Baylor. But Taylor is seen as a prototype 3-4 nose tackle, and Cleveland is switching to a base 4-3 defense. But Taylor is the run stuffer the Browns need to plug up the middle against the rest of the AFC North.
In Round 2, Cleveland selected Jabaal Sheard, a pass rushing end out of Pittsburgh, and Greg Little, a wide receiver out of North Carolina. Sheard should be able to step in right away in the 4-3 defense, and Little provides Colt McCoy with a huge target on the outside.
In Round 4, Cleveland landed Jordan Cameron, the athletic tight end from USC, after first apparently calling Cameron Jordan to inform them they had selected him with their pick. Jordan was nice enough to inform the Browns that he has already been selected by New Orleans, and that they needed to contact Jordan Cameron instead.
Also in the fourth round, the Browns got the ultimate throwback player of the draft in Owen Marecic, who played fullback and linebacker at Stanford. Marecic looks to be a full time back blocking for Peyton Hillis from now on.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Jason Pinkston, an offensive tackle out of Pittsburgh. Pinkston is a straight ahead run blocker, and Cleveland will want to establish the run game with Hillis to take the pressure off of McCoy next season.
Draft Grade: B+
In Round 1, the Browns selected Phil Taylor, and big defensive tackle out of Baylor. But Taylor is seen as a prototype 3-4 nose tackle, and Cleveland is switching to a base 4-3 defense. But Taylor is the run stuffer the Browns need to plug up the middle against the rest of the AFC North.
In Round 2, Cleveland selected Jabaal Sheard, a pass rushing end out of Pittsburgh, and Greg Little, a wide receiver out of North Carolina. Sheard should be able to step in right away in the 4-3 defense, and Little provides Colt McCoy with a huge target on the outside.
In Round 4, Cleveland landed Jordan Cameron, the athletic tight end from USC, after first apparently calling Cameron Jordan to inform them they had selected him with their pick. Jordan was nice enough to inform the Browns that he has already been selected by New Orleans, and that they needed to contact Jordan Cameron instead.
Also in the fourth round, the Browns got the ultimate throwback player of the draft in Owen Marecic, who played fullback and linebacker at Stanford. Marecic looks to be a full time back blocking for Peyton Hillis from now on.
A late round sleeper pick looks to be Jason Pinkston, an offensive tackle out of Pittsburgh. Pinkston is a straight ahead run blocker, and Cleveland will want to establish the run game with Hillis to take the pressure off of McCoy next season.
Draft Grade: B+
AFC North Draft Grades: Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals entered the 2010 NFL Season with hopes and dreams of reaching the Super Bowl after winning the AFC North in 2009. A 2-1 start was followed by ten straight losses and even more fingers being pointed at who was to blame. This offseason has been just as problematic. Terrell Owens is not coming back. Chad Ochocinco Johnson may or may not be back. Carson Palmer has threatened to retire if he is not traded. Mike Brown isn't going to budge on that matter, so you may as well consider Palmer gone from Cincy. The Bengals entered the draft with questions at quarterback and receiver, and hit the mark at both positions.
Cincinnati could have drafted Blaine Gabbert with the 4th Overall pick, but they opted to go with the best offensive player in the draft with A.J. Green, the wide receiver out of Georgia. In Round 2, Cincinnati was able to get the quarterback they wanted all along in Andy Dalton. Unless Palmer somehow ends up back in a Bengals jersey, or unless they can pick up a veteran free agent quarterback, Dalton will be the Day 1 starter, and his job will be much easier with Green lining up on the outside.
The Bengals selected Dontay Moch, the outside linebacker/defensive end out of Nevada. Moch will have to adjust to playing linebacker, but he has all the physical tools to be a disruptive pass rusher. Cincinnati also got two more potential starters in fourth round pick Cling Boling and fifth round selection Robert Sands. Boling was seen by some as having late first round/early second round talent, and he should start at left guard. Sands will have the opportunity to move into the strong safety position, with Roy Williams and Chris Crocker both getting hit by age and injuries.
A late round sleeper looks to be Korey Lindsey, a cornerback taken in the seventh round out of Southern Illinois. Lindsey was seen as the best corner in FCS, and with Jonathon Joseph potentially heading to free agency he could get a chance right away.
Draft Grade: A
Cincinnati could have drafted Blaine Gabbert with the 4th Overall pick, but they opted to go with the best offensive player in the draft with A.J. Green, the wide receiver out of Georgia. In Round 2, Cincinnati was able to get the quarterback they wanted all along in Andy Dalton. Unless Palmer somehow ends up back in a Bengals jersey, or unless they can pick up a veteran free agent quarterback, Dalton will be the Day 1 starter, and his job will be much easier with Green lining up on the outside.
The Bengals selected Dontay Moch, the outside linebacker/defensive end out of Nevada. Moch will have to adjust to playing linebacker, but he has all the physical tools to be a disruptive pass rusher. Cincinnati also got two more potential starters in fourth round pick Cling Boling and fifth round selection Robert Sands. Boling was seen by some as having late first round/early second round talent, and he should start at left guard. Sands will have the opportunity to move into the strong safety position, with Roy Williams and Chris Crocker both getting hit by age and injuries.
A late round sleeper looks to be Korey Lindsey, a cornerback taken in the seventh round out of Southern Illinois. Lindsey was seen as the best corner in FCS, and with Jonathon Joseph potentially heading to free agency he could get a chance right away.
Draft Grade: A
AFC North Draft Grades: Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have built a reputation as being one franchise that gets the NFL Draft right, consistently making the right picks to reload a strong team. This year was no different. The Ravens finished 12-4 last season, and look as strong as ever.
The defensive secondary was an area of concern, and as good as their front seven has been, if receivers are getting open early and often then it is very difficult to get pressure on the quarterback. The selection of Jimmy Smith, the cornerback out of Colorado, looks to solidify the secondary right away. The concern with Smith is not his talent. Many saw him as good as both Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, but how is he going to handle life in the NFL off the field. The hope is that being in the locker room with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will be a positive influence. But right now no one is in the locker room. So if Smith can stay out of trouble until the lockout ends then he will have the chance to fulfill his potential.
Wide receiver is another area where the Ravens were looking to get better, and Baltimore got a player with first round talent late in the second round with the selection of Torrey Smith from Maryland. Smith gives the receiver corps an immediate upgrade with his speed, and he should be able to stretch the field for quarterback Joe Flacco. The Ravens also got an upgrade on the offensive line in the third round by selecting Jah Reid out of Central Florida. Reid may be in need of experience and seasoning, but he has the athletic ability to contribute for a long time.
A late round sleeper looks to be Tandon Doss, a wide receiver selected in the fourth round. Doss is a tall, rangy possession receiver with great hands and should team with Torrey Smith on the outside for many years.
Draft Grade: B+
The defensive secondary was an area of concern, and as good as their front seven has been, if receivers are getting open early and often then it is very difficult to get pressure on the quarterback. The selection of Jimmy Smith, the cornerback out of Colorado, looks to solidify the secondary right away. The concern with Smith is not his talent. Many saw him as good as both Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, but how is he going to handle life in the NFL off the field. The hope is that being in the locker room with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will be a positive influence. But right now no one is in the locker room. So if Smith can stay out of trouble until the lockout ends then he will have the chance to fulfill his potential.
Wide receiver is another area where the Ravens were looking to get better, and Baltimore got a player with first round talent late in the second round with the selection of Torrey Smith from Maryland. Smith gives the receiver corps an immediate upgrade with his speed, and he should be able to stretch the field for quarterback Joe Flacco. The Ravens also got an upgrade on the offensive line in the third round by selecting Jah Reid out of Central Florida. Reid may be in need of experience and seasoning, but he has the athletic ability to contribute for a long time.
A late round sleeper looks to be Tandon Doss, a wide receiver selected in the fourth round. Doss is a tall, rangy possession receiver with great hands and should team with Torrey Smith on the outside for many years.
Draft Grade: B+
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
NFC East Draft Grades: Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins are heading into the second year of the Mike Shanahan tenure looking to settle down the drama that seemed to take over the locker room in 2010. The addition of Donovan McNabb didn't work out too well, and bringing in Albert Haynesworth was even worse. The Redskins finished 6-10, and were looking to fill in holes on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback was an area of concern, and Washington had a chance to select Blaine Gabbert, but traded down with Jacksonville and wound up seelcting Ryan Kerrigan, the defensive end from Purdue. Kerrigan will look to line up opposite Brian Orakpo, and the defense will now have two high motor outside pass rushers.
The defensive secondary was the choice in Round 2 with the pick of Jarvis Jenkins out of Clemson. But a steal may have been Leonard Hankerson, the wide receiver out of Miami taken in Round 3. Hankerson had an excellent Senior Bowl, and was a highly rated receiver with good size and the hands to excel in the NFL. Washington did not select a quarterback, so as of now Hankerson looks to be catching passes from Rex Grossman.
A late round sleeper looks to be Roy Helu, a running back out of Nebraska selected in Round 4. Helu is a between the tackles runner, but he should fit in well with Shanahan's offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Draft Grade: B-
Quarterback was an area of concern, and Washington had a chance to select Blaine Gabbert, but traded down with Jacksonville and wound up seelcting Ryan Kerrigan, the defensive end from Purdue. Kerrigan will look to line up opposite Brian Orakpo, and the defense will now have two high motor outside pass rushers.
The defensive secondary was the choice in Round 2 with the pick of Jarvis Jenkins out of Clemson. But a steal may have been Leonard Hankerson, the wide receiver out of Miami taken in Round 3. Hankerson had an excellent Senior Bowl, and was a highly rated receiver with good size and the hands to excel in the NFL. Washington did not select a quarterback, so as of now Hankerson looks to be catching passes from Rex Grossman.
A late round sleeper looks to be Roy Helu, a running back out of Nebraska selected in Round 4. Helu is a between the tackles runner, but he should fit in well with Shanahan's offense with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Draft Grade: B-
NFC East Draft Grades: Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East at 10-6 during the 2010 NFL Season, and the sensational play of Michael Vick led the way. Two areas of concern for the Eagles was the offensive line and defensive secondary, and Philadelphia hit on picks at both slots.
Danny Watkins have may been the most popular player at Radio City Music Hall on Draft Day, as the former firefighter got a standing ovation from a group of New York firefighters. But Watkins can play. He can play tackle and guard, and he should be able to shore up the line right away.
The secondary was addressed in Rounds 2 and 3, with the selection of Jaiquawn Jarrett, a safety out of Temple in the second round, and Curtis Marsh, a cornerback out of Utah State in the third round. Both players have have been drafted higher than many experts had them pegged, but they both fit the Eagles system, and should play an important role in shoring up the defensive backfield.
Two late round sleeper picks for the Eagles look to be Casey Matthews, a middle linebacker out of Oregon, and Alex Henery, a kicker out of Nebraska, both selected in the fourth round of the draft. Matthews is the brother of Clay Matthews of the Packers, and he has the football IQ that Coach Andy Reid loves. Henery was the highest rated kicker in the draft, and he could be the eventual replacement for David Akers.
Draft Grade: B-
Danny Watkins have may been the most popular player at Radio City Music Hall on Draft Day, as the former firefighter got a standing ovation from a group of New York firefighters. But Watkins can play. He can play tackle and guard, and he should be able to shore up the line right away.
The secondary was addressed in Rounds 2 and 3, with the selection of Jaiquawn Jarrett, a safety out of Temple in the second round, and Curtis Marsh, a cornerback out of Utah State in the third round. Both players have have been drafted higher than many experts had them pegged, but they both fit the Eagles system, and should play an important role in shoring up the defensive backfield.
Two late round sleeper picks for the Eagles look to be Casey Matthews, a middle linebacker out of Oregon, and Alex Henery, a kicker out of Nebraska, both selected in the fourth round of the draft. Matthews is the brother of Clay Matthews of the Packers, and he has the football IQ that Coach Andy Reid loves. Henery was the highest rated kicker in the draft, and he could be the eventual replacement for David Akers.
Draft Grade: B-
NFC East Draft Grades: New York Giants
The New York Giants missed out on the 2010 NFL Playoffs by the slimmest of margins. Looking back, if they had punted away from DeSean Jackson and defeated the Eagles, they would have had the sixth and final playoff spot in the NFC. The team that claimed that spot-Green Bay.
With the 19th pick, the Giants were looking to upgrade the running game or offensive line. But one of the top players in the draft fell to them, so it was a no-brainer to select Prince Amukamara in the first round. With the emphasis on the passing game, you can't have enough good cover corners. Amukamara was seen as a Top 10 talent, and the Giants got a gift in the first round.
Then New York got another in Round 2, when Marvin Austin was sitting there for the taking. Despite not playing at North Carolina in 2010 due to NCAA Violations, Austin was seen as a late first round pick, and I think more people were surprised that he was the 52nd pick than what would have been if he had been the 25th pick. Austin is a great fit for the Giants defensive scheme, and I can see him moving into the starting lineup by the end of the season.
The Giants got a speed receiver in Round 3 by selecting Jerrel Jernigan out of Troy. Small but very quick, Jernigan looks to be an excellent complimentary receiver to line up with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith.
Two late round sleepers for the Giants look to be James Brewer, a tackle selected in the fourth round out of Indiana, and Greg Jones, a middle linebacker taken in Round 6 out of Michigan State. Brewer is an athletic giant of a right tackle, standing 6'8 and weighing 330 pounds. Jones is a productive player in the middle of the defense, and his leadership qualities can not be overlooked.
Draft Grade: A
With the 19th pick, the Giants were looking to upgrade the running game or offensive line. But one of the top players in the draft fell to them, so it was a no-brainer to select Prince Amukamara in the first round. With the emphasis on the passing game, you can't have enough good cover corners. Amukamara was seen as a Top 10 talent, and the Giants got a gift in the first round.
Then New York got another in Round 2, when Marvin Austin was sitting there for the taking. Despite not playing at North Carolina in 2010 due to NCAA Violations, Austin was seen as a late first round pick, and I think more people were surprised that he was the 52nd pick than what would have been if he had been the 25th pick. Austin is a great fit for the Giants defensive scheme, and I can see him moving into the starting lineup by the end of the season.
The Giants got a speed receiver in Round 3 by selecting Jerrel Jernigan out of Troy. Small but very quick, Jernigan looks to be an excellent complimentary receiver to line up with Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith.
Two late round sleepers for the Giants look to be James Brewer, a tackle selected in the fourth round out of Indiana, and Greg Jones, a middle linebacker taken in Round 6 out of Michigan State. Brewer is an athletic giant of a right tackle, standing 6'8 and weighing 330 pounds. Jones is a productive player in the middle of the defense, and his leadership qualities can not be overlooked.
Draft Grade: A
NFC East Draft Grades: Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2010 NFL season with the highest of expectations, looking to be the first team to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium, and finished with the bitterest of disappointments. A 1-7 start led to a coaching change, and with Jason Garrett at the helm, the Cowboys finished 5-3 down the stretch and 6-10 overall.
Two areas of concern for Dallas was the offensive and defensive lines. The selection of Tyron Smith, the tackle out of USC, makes the offensive line stronger from the start. Smith may start at right tackle, then eventually move to the left side. But the defensive line did not get addressed on draft weekend, and that may come back to haunt the Cowboys.
Bruce Carter is coming off of knee surgery late in 2010, and he may not be ready to play right away. Once he is healthy, Carter will be a valuable addition to the Cowboys defense.
A late round sleeper pick for Dallas looks to be David Arkin, an interior offensive lineman selected in the fourth round out of Missouri State. Arkin dominated in the small college ranks, and with some seasoning and adjustments to the NFL talent level, Arkin will provide depth to the offensive line.
Draft grade: B
Two areas of concern for Dallas was the offensive and defensive lines. The selection of Tyron Smith, the tackle out of USC, makes the offensive line stronger from the start. Smith may start at right tackle, then eventually move to the left side. But the defensive line did not get addressed on draft weekend, and that may come back to haunt the Cowboys.
Bruce Carter is coming off of knee surgery late in 2010, and he may not be ready to play right away. Once he is healthy, Carter will be a valuable addition to the Cowboys defense.
A late round sleeper pick for Dallas looks to be David Arkin, an interior offensive lineman selected in the fourth round out of Missouri State. Arkin dominated in the small college ranks, and with some seasoning and adjustments to the NFL talent level, Arkin will provide depth to the offensive line.
Draft grade: B
Monday, May 2, 2011
AFC East Draft Grades: New York Jets
The New York Jets are coming off of their second straight season playing in the AFC Title Game, and many people feel the clock is ticking on whether or not they can get over the hump and make it to the Super Bowl. The biggest need was defensive line, and the Jets hit the mark on their first two picks.
Muhammad Wilkerson is an athletic end for their 3-4 defense, and Jets fans everywhere are hoping he isn't the second coming of Vernon Gholston. They also got the prototype 3-4 nose tackle in Kenrick Ellis from Hampton. But off the field issues scared away a few teams, but the Jets were willing to take a chance and select him in the third round.
A sleeper pick for the Jets was their highest pick on the offensive side of the ball, running back Bilal Powell from Louisville, selected in the fourth round. Powell is a between the tackles back, who looks to be a complimentary back to Shonn Greene and an eventual replacement for LaDanian Tomlinson for the Jets.
Draft Grade: B
Muhammad Wilkerson is an athletic end for their 3-4 defense, and Jets fans everywhere are hoping he isn't the second coming of Vernon Gholston. They also got the prototype 3-4 nose tackle in Kenrick Ellis from Hampton. But off the field issues scared away a few teams, but the Jets were willing to take a chance and select him in the third round.
A sleeper pick for the Jets was their highest pick on the offensive side of the ball, running back Bilal Powell from Louisville, selected in the fourth round. Powell is a between the tackles back, who looks to be a complimentary back to Shonn Greene and an eventual replacement for LaDanian Tomlinson for the Jets.
Draft Grade: B
AFC East Draft Grades: New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are coming off of yet another AFC East title following a 14-2 regular season. But disappointment hit the Patriots once again after getting knocked out of the playoffs by division rival New York Jets at home. Bu New England went into the draft with three of the first 33 picks, and they were looking to reload. Their first selection at #17 was Nate Solder, the athletic 6'8 tackle from Colorado, who will team up with fellow man mountain Sebastian Vollmer to protect the edges for Tom Brady for years to come. New England traded their second pick in Round 1, and continued their philosophy of accumulating picks in later rounds.
New England got a cornerback at the top of Round 2 in Ras-I Dowling to pair up with last year's number one pick Devin McCourtey. Then the Patriots went for running back with a second round and third round pick in Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, respectively. But their second pick in Round 3 was the attention getter. Ryan Mallett was sitting there, and New England snared the strong armed quarterback. He will be groomed to be Tom Brady's replacement, or he will be the next Matt Cassel and be shipped out to a team in need of a quarterback who is willing to pay a high price.
New England didn't address their needs of rushing the passer or wide receiver. But it is futile to argue about the picks Bill Belichick makes. He makes them work out in the long run.
A late round sleeper pick for the Patriots looks to be Marcus Cannon, the mammoth guard from TCU selected in the fifth round. Cannon was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma, and will undergo chemotherapy treatments. He may sit out 2011 while he recuperates, but if he can come back either this year or next with a clean bill of health he could be a fixture at guard for a long time.
Draft Grade: B+
New England got a cornerback at the top of Round 2 in Ras-I Dowling to pair up with last year's number one pick Devin McCourtey. Then the Patriots went for running back with a second round and third round pick in Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, respectively. But their second pick in Round 3 was the attention getter. Ryan Mallett was sitting there, and New England snared the strong armed quarterback. He will be groomed to be Tom Brady's replacement, or he will be the next Matt Cassel and be shipped out to a team in need of a quarterback who is willing to pay a high price.
New England didn't address their needs of rushing the passer or wide receiver. But it is futile to argue about the picks Bill Belichick makes. He makes them work out in the long run.
A late round sleeper pick for the Patriots looks to be Marcus Cannon, the mammoth guard from TCU selected in the fifth round. Cannon was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma, and will undergo chemotherapy treatments. He may sit out 2011 while he recuperates, but if he can come back either this year or next with a clean bill of health he could be a fixture at guard for a long time.
Draft Grade: B+
AFC East Draft Grades: Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins come off of a 7-9 season, and their division title in 2008 seems to be a long time ago. There were issues all over the field that needed to be addressed, and the Dolphins got 2 of them right off the bat. Mike Pouncey will help solidify the offensive line, which outside of Jake Long has not performed up to snuff. Poincey can play guard and center, and it looks like Miami will have him anchoring the middle. Another area of concern was running back. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are free agents, and Miami got a solid power back in Daniel Thomas. Thomas is a north-south runner who should thrive going through holes opened by Long and Pouncey.
With only six picks, the defense wasn't addressed until Round 7. But the quarterback position wasn't addressed at all. It looks like the Dolphins are either going to hand the keys of the offense back to Chad Henne, of go after a veteran in free agency.
A late round sleeper looks to be Edmond Gates, a wide receiver from Abilene Christian selected in the fourth round. Gates is a burner, but transitioning to the NFL may be difficult.
Draft Grade: B-
With only six picks, the defense wasn't addressed until Round 7. But the quarterback position wasn't addressed at all. It looks like the Dolphins are either going to hand the keys of the offense back to Chad Henne, of go after a veteran in free agency.
A late round sleeper looks to be Edmond Gates, a wide receiver from Abilene Christian selected in the fourth round. Gates is a burner, but transitioning to the NFL may be difficult.
Draft Grade: B-
AFC East Draft Grades: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills come off of a 4-12 season in 2010, and held the third overall selection of the 2011 NFL Draft. The offense was good last season, but the defense needed the most help. And the Bills hit the mark with their first two picks. Marcell Dareus is an athletic defensive tackle who can both stop the run and pressure the passer effectively. But their second round pick may turn out to be just as valuable. Aaron Williams is a solid corner who can also play safety. The Buffalo secondary got lit up way too much last season, and Williams looks to be a solid piece to the defensive puzzle. Third round pick Kelvin Sheppard is an athletic linebacker who can play inside and outside.
Buffalo helped the defense through the draft, but quarterback was a position that they should have addressed at some time. Ryan Mallett was available when the Bills picked Sheppard, but Arizona also passed on the Arkansas quarterback in the third round. Both teams need help at the position and passed. That may say what you need to know about Mallett. Buffalo has said that Ryan Fitzpatrick is their guy at quarterback, and they will go into 2011 with the Harvard grad calling the shots under center.
A late round sleeper for the Bills looks to be Chris Hairston, an offensive lineman selected in the fourth round. Buffalo's offensive line has had issues since Jason Peter went to Philadelphia, and it may not be long before Hairston her a chance. He has the size, strength and athletic ability to make an impact on an offensive line that has been thin at times.
Draft Grade: B
Buffalo helped the defense through the draft, but quarterback was a position that they should have addressed at some time. Ryan Mallett was available when the Bills picked Sheppard, but Arizona also passed on the Arkansas quarterback in the third round. Both teams need help at the position and passed. That may say what you need to know about Mallett. Buffalo has said that Ryan Fitzpatrick is their guy at quarterback, and they will go into 2011 with the Harvard grad calling the shots under center.
A late round sleeper for the Bills looks to be Chris Hairston, an offensive lineman selected in the fourth round. Buffalo's offensive line has had issues since Jason Peter went to Philadelphia, and it may not be long before Hairston her a chance. He has the size, strength and athletic ability to make an impact on an offensive line that has been thin at times.
Draft Grade: B
Saturday, April 30, 2011
The Draft Ends and The Lockout Begins (Again)
The 2011 NFL Draft has come to an end. Instead of heading to team facilities, the new draft picks are on hold, as are the veterans of every club. The lockout has been re-instated. For now. Which means that only the first round picks who were able to make it to their new clubs' offices were able to obtain playbooks. How crazy is it that A.J. Green has a playbook to study, but his new quarterback with the Bengals, Andy Dalton, does not. Perhaps they can share. I have no idea.
But what I do know is that this madness needs to end. From a fan's point of view, you have billionaire owners and millionaire players fighting over the crumbs of the pie. I know it is more complex than that. It just doesn't seem that way to fans who shell out their hard earned money and, perhaps more importantly, their loyalty.
So the action of the NFL now heads back to the courts. Draft picks will wait to workout and get signed. Free agents will wait to negotiate with teams before they can sign. Undrafted free agents will wait, and wait, and wait. I cannot picture a fall without NFL football. If the clubs and players have to revert to 2010 rules then so be it. Let's get back to work. The fans at the draft chanted at Commissioner Goddell 'We Want Football!' The commish replied 'So Do I.' OK, then. Prove it. End the lockout. Sign a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. And let's get back to football.
But what I do know is that this madness needs to end. From a fan's point of view, you have billionaire owners and millionaire players fighting over the crumbs of the pie. I know it is more complex than that. It just doesn't seem that way to fans who shell out their hard earned money and, perhaps more importantly, their loyalty.
So the action of the NFL now heads back to the courts. Draft picks will wait to workout and get signed. Free agents will wait to negotiate with teams before they can sign. Undrafted free agents will wait, and wait, and wait. I cannot picture a fall without NFL football. If the clubs and players have to revert to 2010 rules then so be it. Let's get back to work. The fans at the draft chanted at Commissioner Goddell 'We Want Football!' The commish replied 'So Do I.' OK, then. Prove it. End the lockout. Sign a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. And let's get back to football.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Day 2 In The Books
Day 2 of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books, and winners and losers are starting to surface among the teams. Some have been doing this for a long time. Some are getting better. Some have me scratching my head.
The New England Patriots always seem to own the draft. They have been accumulating top picks the last few years, and 2011 is no different. Even looking to next year, the Patriots have already picked up an additional first and second round pick. But for 2011, they have selected a left tackle in Nate Solder to pair with Sebastian Vollmer that could be called, with acknowledgements to Tom Clancy's Hunt For Red October, Thor's Twins. Both are 6'8, young and very athletic. Tom Brady is going to be well protected for a long time, and they even got his future replacement in Ryan Mallett, who fell all the way to Round 3. New England picked up a pair of running backs to fill a need in Round 2, but the pick who could turn out to be the most valuable might be Ras-I Dowling, a cornerback from Virginia. He has ideal size and speed to play corner in the NFL, but has battled injuries in college and could use some seasoning in the pros. But if he develops, New England will have a pair of top flight corners in Dowling and Devin McCourtey for years to come.
The New Orleans Saints for two elite players in Round 1, selecting Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram. But the third round brought two more impact players in Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick. Wilson may be a bit raw, but he is a talented, gifted linebacker and Patrick looks to be a solid cover corner who also plays the run very well. The Saints got an infusion of talent at the running back position, where they had injuries all of 2010, and in all three facets of the defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals had an excellent draft in 2010, and this year has gotten off to a good start. A.J. Green was a near unanimous choice as the best offensive player in the draft, and with Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco Johnson most likely not returning he fills a glaring need. Carson Palmer doesn't look to be returning either, and the Bengals picked up Andy Dalton with the third pick of Round 2. Many draftniks had Dalton moving up into the first round, and Cincinnati was able to select him without having to trade up and relinquishing any of their other picks. Jay Gruden is going to install the West Coast system, and they will need a mobile, accurate quarterback to run the offense. Dalton is that, and he is a leader and a winner. Even if Palmer returns to Cincy, I can see Dalton taking over the starting spot during the season. Then the Bengals addressed the defensive side by taking Dontay Moch in Round 3. Moch is a disruptive force, who spends a lot of time in the opponents backfield. The Bengals could use Moch as a backup to Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga on the outside, and could line the three of them up together with Rodderick Muckleroy in some 3-4 schemes.
The Detroit Lions got perhaps the biggest steal of the draft when Nick Fairley fell all the way to #13, then they got two more solid picks in Round 2. Titus Young is the speed receiver to compliment Calvin Johnson, and Mikel Leshoure is the between the tackles workhorse to compliment Jahvid Best. The Lions need to keep Matthew Stafford healthy, and if they can address that need in Day 3 they will easily be one of the biggest winners of the draft.
The Houston Texans needed help on defense. A lot of help. And they got it and then some. J.J. Watt is the ideal 3-4 end, and in Round 2 they got an outside linebacker in Brooks Reed who can rush the passer. But one of the biggest steals of the draft has to be Brandon Harris going to Houston in Round 3. He may lack the ideal size, but Harris has speed and plays more physical than his stature might indicate. Harris was a popular late first round selection of many mock drafts, and I had him going #32 to Green Bay. He can pair up with Kareem Jackson to solidify the Texans pass coverage.
Then there is the Minnesota Vikings. They went into the draft needing a quarterback. And they got one. A lot higher than everyone thought Christian Ponder would be taken in the draft. Ponder is a good fit for the Vikings West Coast offense, but he may have to play right away unless Minnesota can acquire a veteran to hold the fort until he is ready. They also need to shore up the middle of the defensive line, add a receiver with Sidney Rice being a free agent and Percy Harvin with migraine issues, and the secondary needs help as well. So with their second round pick, the Vikings select...Kyle Rudolph. While Rudolph has the skills to be a top tight end in the NFL, and the Vikings could use some youth at the position, Minnesota could have also drafted Rahim Moore, Marcus Gilchrist, Marvin Austin, or Greg Little. I believe that any of these players may make a more immediate impact with the Vikings. But if you look at the players Minnesota could have had, Nick Fairley and Ryan Mallett were available and if they Vikings had picked those two, I don't see anyone looking at their draft and wondering what they were doing.
Day 3 of the 2011 NFL Draft is tomorrow. What surprises await teams, players and fans alike? We shall see.
The New England Patriots always seem to own the draft. They have been accumulating top picks the last few years, and 2011 is no different. Even looking to next year, the Patriots have already picked up an additional first and second round pick. But for 2011, they have selected a left tackle in Nate Solder to pair with Sebastian Vollmer that could be called, with acknowledgements to Tom Clancy's Hunt For Red October, Thor's Twins. Both are 6'8, young and very athletic. Tom Brady is going to be well protected for a long time, and they even got his future replacement in Ryan Mallett, who fell all the way to Round 3. New England picked up a pair of running backs to fill a need in Round 2, but the pick who could turn out to be the most valuable might be Ras-I Dowling, a cornerback from Virginia. He has ideal size and speed to play corner in the NFL, but has battled injuries in college and could use some seasoning in the pros. But if he develops, New England will have a pair of top flight corners in Dowling and Devin McCourtey for years to come.
The New Orleans Saints for two elite players in Round 1, selecting Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram. But the third round brought two more impact players in Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick. Wilson may be a bit raw, but he is a talented, gifted linebacker and Patrick looks to be a solid cover corner who also plays the run very well. The Saints got an infusion of talent at the running back position, where they had injuries all of 2010, and in all three facets of the defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals had an excellent draft in 2010, and this year has gotten off to a good start. A.J. Green was a near unanimous choice as the best offensive player in the draft, and with Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco Johnson most likely not returning he fills a glaring need. Carson Palmer doesn't look to be returning either, and the Bengals picked up Andy Dalton with the third pick of Round 2. Many draftniks had Dalton moving up into the first round, and Cincinnati was able to select him without having to trade up and relinquishing any of their other picks. Jay Gruden is going to install the West Coast system, and they will need a mobile, accurate quarterback to run the offense. Dalton is that, and he is a leader and a winner. Even if Palmer returns to Cincy, I can see Dalton taking over the starting spot during the season. Then the Bengals addressed the defensive side by taking Dontay Moch in Round 3. Moch is a disruptive force, who spends a lot of time in the opponents backfield. The Bengals could use Moch as a backup to Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga on the outside, and could line the three of them up together with Rodderick Muckleroy in some 3-4 schemes.
The Detroit Lions got perhaps the biggest steal of the draft when Nick Fairley fell all the way to #13, then they got two more solid picks in Round 2. Titus Young is the speed receiver to compliment Calvin Johnson, and Mikel Leshoure is the between the tackles workhorse to compliment Jahvid Best. The Lions need to keep Matthew Stafford healthy, and if they can address that need in Day 3 they will easily be one of the biggest winners of the draft.
The Houston Texans needed help on defense. A lot of help. And they got it and then some. J.J. Watt is the ideal 3-4 end, and in Round 2 they got an outside linebacker in Brooks Reed who can rush the passer. But one of the biggest steals of the draft has to be Brandon Harris going to Houston in Round 3. He may lack the ideal size, but Harris has speed and plays more physical than his stature might indicate. Harris was a popular late first round selection of many mock drafts, and I had him going #32 to Green Bay. He can pair up with Kareem Jackson to solidify the Texans pass coverage.
Then there is the Minnesota Vikings. They went into the draft needing a quarterback. And they got one. A lot higher than everyone thought Christian Ponder would be taken in the draft. Ponder is a good fit for the Vikings West Coast offense, but he may have to play right away unless Minnesota can acquire a veteran to hold the fort until he is ready. They also need to shore up the middle of the defensive line, add a receiver with Sidney Rice being a free agent and Percy Harvin with migraine issues, and the secondary needs help as well. So with their second round pick, the Vikings select...Kyle Rudolph. While Rudolph has the skills to be a top tight end in the NFL, and the Vikings could use some youth at the position, Minnesota could have also drafted Rahim Moore, Marcus Gilchrist, Marvin Austin, or Greg Little. I believe that any of these players may make a more immediate impact with the Vikings. But if you look at the players Minnesota could have had, Nick Fairley and Ryan Mallett were available and if they Vikings had picked those two, I don't see anyone looking at their draft and wondering what they were doing.
Day 3 of the 2011 NFL Draft is tomorrow. What surprises await teams, players and fans alike? We shall see.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Picking My Jaw Up Off The Floor
The first round of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. All I can say is 'WOW.' As I posted previously, some teams had a bit of a panic attack and reached for quarterbacks. Cam Newton will most likely win more hearts and minds in Carolina than ballgames. Jake Locker has all the athletic ability in the world, and he is going to get thrown into the fire right away in Tennessee. Unless they go out and get a veteran quarterback when the lockout is officially lifted, Minnesota is going to have a competition for the starting spot between Joe Webb and Christian Ponder. Then there is Jacksonville. When I heard they had traded up to #10 with Washington, my first thought was 'they are going to get a premier pass rusher.' Instead, they drafted the backup to David Garrard with the selection of Blaine Gabbert.
Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.
Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.
If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.
The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.
As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!
Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.
Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.
If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.
The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.
As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
TMG Draft Zone Mock Draft--2011 Final
It's the day before the 2011 NFL Draft, and it's time to post my final mock draft for this year. I'm not a big fan of posting mock draft all the time and constantly making changes, but the uncertainty of the labor situation has dictated that this is going to be a different draft season. Looking back, I kept five players at the same spot I originally had them in February, and 28 of the original 32 picks I made are still in the first round. Changes, yes. But you need to shuffle the deck every now and then. So here is the final TMG DraftZone Mock Draft for 2011:
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Von Miller LB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Robert Quinn DE
7) San Francisco Patrick Peterson CB
8) Tennessee Nick Fairley DT
9) Dallas Tyron Smith OT
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Prince Amukamara CB
12) Minnesota Cameron Jordan DE
13) Detroit Anthony Castonzo OT
14) St. Louis Corey Liuget DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England J.J. Watt DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Mike Pouncey OG
20) Tampa Bay Da'Quan Bowers DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Gabe Carimi OT
23) Philadelphia Jimmy Smith CB
24) New Orleans Cameron Heyward DE
25) Seattle Jake Locker QB
26) Baltimore Aaron Williams CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Phil Taylor DT
29) Chicago Nate Solder OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Brandon Harris CB
I look forward to seeing how well my picks pan out on Thursday night. For all of you that have made your own mocks drafts I wish you well, my fellow draftniks. Let's get the NFL Draft started!
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Von Miller LB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Robert Quinn DE
7) San Francisco Patrick Peterson CB
8) Tennessee Nick Fairley DT
9) Dallas Tyron Smith OT
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Prince Amukamara CB
12) Minnesota Cameron Jordan DE
13) Detroit Anthony Castonzo OT
14) St. Louis Corey Liuget DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England J.J. Watt DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Mike Pouncey OG
20) Tampa Bay Da'Quan Bowers DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Gabe Carimi OT
23) Philadelphia Jimmy Smith CB
24) New Orleans Cameron Heyward DE
25) Seattle Jake Locker QB
26) Baltimore Aaron Williams CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Phil Taylor DT
29) Chicago Nate Solder OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Brandon Harris CB
I look forward to seeing how well my picks pan out on Thursday night. For all of you that have made your own mocks drafts I wish you well, my fellow draftniks. Let's get the NFL Draft started!
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 6.0--2011 Final
It is two days until the 2011 NFL Draft, and today I am posting my final DSA Player Rankings for this year. It seems that the prospects at the top have pretty much been solidified in their draft slots, and that is due to the uncertainty of the lockout and labor negotiations. Teams still have not been able to sign free agents, even with the ruling that came down yesterday. So it looks like this is going to be the draft for needs, not just the draft for the best player available. So here is the final DSA Player Rankings for 2011:
DSA Rankings 6.0 4-28-11
1) Cam Newton 1.30
2) Marcel Dareus 1.90
3) Von Miller 3.60
4) A.J. Green 4.20
5) Blaine Gabbert 5.00
6) Patrick Peterson 6.40
7) Robert Quinn 7.00
8) Nick Fairley 7.40
9) Julio Jones 9.20
10) Tyron Smith 9.40
11) Prince Amukamara 12.20
12) Cameron Jordan 13.30
13) Aldon Smith 15.10
14) Corey Liuget 15.40
15) J.J, Watt 16.00
16) Ryan Kerrigan 16.70
17) Anthony Castanzo 17.10
18) Mike Pouncey 17.40
19) Da'Quan Bowers 18.20
20) Mark Ingram 21.00
21) Gabe Carimi 22.60
22) Jimmy Smith 24.50
23) Cameron Heyward 25.90
24) Derek Sherrod 26.60
25) Nate Solder 26.80
26) Muhammad Wilkerson 27.10
27) Akeem Ayers 28.30
28) Phil Taylor 28.50
29) Jake Locker 29.90
30) Danny Watkins 30.30
31) Adrian Clayborn 30.70
32) Aaron Williams 31.10
The biggest upward movers going into the final weeks of the draft has been Cameron Heyward, who moved up seven slots in the latest DSA's. Corey Liuget jumped up six positions, while Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan shot up five slots each. The players who travelled south the most were Adrian Clayborn, who for some reason dropped ten slots down to #31, and Da'Quan Bowers, who fell another eight spots to #19. Teams are getting nervous about Bowers and just how healthy his knee is, but Clayborn is a bit of a mystery. I believe he is more a victim of the numbers with a deep class at defensive end and could very well go in the mid-first round.
Looking back at the first DSA's I posted back in February compared to the final in late April, there are a number of players who saw their stock rise and fall in the eyes of draftniks during the past two months. Nick Fairley was a unanimous #1 Overall selection, then dropped to a near unanimous #8 pick for Tennessee. Akeem Ayers fell twelve spots to #27, and Adrian Clayborn went south thirteen positions to #31. Brandon Harris was #22 and Ryan Mallett was #23, and both are not anywhere near the top 32 in the final rankings.
Cam Newton started at #8, and moved all the way to the top before the draft. Corey Liuget shot up eleven slots to #14, and Mike Pouncey gained nine spots to #18. Muhammad Wilkerson and Danny Watkins both made the largest jump from outside the first 32 to the final, both moving up ten slots to #26 and #30, respectively.
But nothing compares to the draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers. I could do this for another hundred years and not see anything like it again. Bowers was second after the initial DSA Players Rankings, then moved up to the top spot for DSA 2.0. Then the NFL Scouting Combine came around. Bowers did not work out due to knee surgery. Then he had a poor showing at the Clemson Pro Day, mostly due to not being able to work out while rehabbing his knee. Then the rumors circulated. Out of shape. Knee not responding. Arthritic knee. And his stock began to drop. And drop. And drop. All the way to #19 of the final DSA Player Rankings. I'm hoping he proves all the naysayers wrong, is 100% healthy, and hits the field with a whole bags of chips on his shoulder. If that's the case, he will be the biggest bargain of the draft if he indeed falls to the mid-late first round. We will find out Thursday night and in the months ahead.
DSA Rankings 6.0 4-28-11
1) Cam Newton 1.30
2) Marcel Dareus 1.90
3) Von Miller 3.60
4) A.J. Green 4.20
5) Blaine Gabbert 5.00
6) Patrick Peterson 6.40
7) Robert Quinn 7.00
8) Nick Fairley 7.40
9) Julio Jones 9.20
10) Tyron Smith 9.40
11) Prince Amukamara 12.20
12) Cameron Jordan 13.30
13) Aldon Smith 15.10
14) Corey Liuget 15.40
15) J.J, Watt 16.00
16) Ryan Kerrigan 16.70
17) Anthony Castanzo 17.10
18) Mike Pouncey 17.40
19) Da'Quan Bowers 18.20
20) Mark Ingram 21.00
21) Gabe Carimi 22.60
22) Jimmy Smith 24.50
23) Cameron Heyward 25.90
24) Derek Sherrod 26.60
25) Nate Solder 26.80
26) Muhammad Wilkerson 27.10
27) Akeem Ayers 28.30
28) Phil Taylor 28.50
29) Jake Locker 29.90
30) Danny Watkins 30.30
31) Adrian Clayborn 30.70
32) Aaron Williams 31.10
The biggest upward movers going into the final weeks of the draft has been Cameron Heyward, who moved up seven slots in the latest DSA's. Corey Liuget jumped up six positions, while Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan shot up five slots each. The players who travelled south the most were Adrian Clayborn, who for some reason dropped ten slots down to #31, and Da'Quan Bowers, who fell another eight spots to #19. Teams are getting nervous about Bowers and just how healthy his knee is, but Clayborn is a bit of a mystery. I believe he is more a victim of the numbers with a deep class at defensive end and could very well go in the mid-first round.
Looking back at the first DSA's I posted back in February compared to the final in late April, there are a number of players who saw their stock rise and fall in the eyes of draftniks during the past two months. Nick Fairley was a unanimous #1 Overall selection, then dropped to a near unanimous #8 pick for Tennessee. Akeem Ayers fell twelve spots to #27, and Adrian Clayborn went south thirteen positions to #31. Brandon Harris was #22 and Ryan Mallett was #23, and both are not anywhere near the top 32 in the final rankings.
Cam Newton started at #8, and moved all the way to the top before the draft. Corey Liuget shot up eleven slots to #14, and Mike Pouncey gained nine spots to #18. Muhammad Wilkerson and Danny Watkins both made the largest jump from outside the first 32 to the final, both moving up ten slots to #26 and #30, respectively.
But nothing compares to the draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers. I could do this for another hundred years and not see anything like it again. Bowers was second after the initial DSA Players Rankings, then moved up to the top spot for DSA 2.0. Then the NFL Scouting Combine came around. Bowers did not work out due to knee surgery. Then he had a poor showing at the Clemson Pro Day, mostly due to not being able to work out while rehabbing his knee. Then the rumors circulated. Out of shape. Knee not responding. Arthritic knee. And his stock began to drop. And drop. And drop. All the way to #19 of the final DSA Player Rankings. I'm hoping he proves all the naysayers wrong, is 100% healthy, and hits the field with a whole bags of chips on his shoulder. If that's the case, he will be the biggest bargain of the draft if he indeed falls to the mid-late first round. We will find out Thursday night and in the months ahead.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Filling Out The Depth Chart-Defense
Yesterday I posted a list of prospects that I believe will be solid pros in the NFL, but look to be taken after the first round of the upcoming. Today is for the defense. A number of these players have been placed in the first round of previous mock drafts, so there is talent and potential aplenty to go around. So here is my list of post-first round defensive prospects:
Defensive End: Allen Bailey
Defensive End: Sam Acho
Defensive Tackle: Drake Nevis
Defensive Tackle: Christian Ballard
Outside Linebacker: Bruce Carter
Outside Linebacker: Dontay Moch
Inside Linebacker: Colin McCarthy
Cornerback: Ras-I Dowling
Cornerback: Brandon Burton
Safety: Marcus Gilchrist
Safety: Quinton Carter
Bailey is a versatile lineman who can play inside or outside, and is seen as a better inside pass rusher. You are not going to find a better student-athlete than Acho, and his game on the field has drawn comparisons to fellow Longhorn Brian Orakpo. Nevis and Ballard both need to bulk up some to play in the middle but are athletic enough to play end as well. Carter is coming off of a knee injury late in 2010, but when healthy he showed good range against the run and pass. Moch has tremendous speed who is a disruptive force in the backfield. McCarthy can play inside and outside and has a nose for the football. Dowling has the size to cover bigger receivers and Burton has the speed to run with the fastest on the outside. Gilchrist and Carter are both physical presences in the secondary and should be instant contributors on special teams.
It is three days until the 2011 NFL Draft. The stars are at the top of everyone's draft boards, but it is the picks on days two and three that will determine whether a teams' draft is a success.
Defensive End: Allen Bailey
Defensive End: Sam Acho
Defensive Tackle: Drake Nevis
Defensive Tackle: Christian Ballard
Outside Linebacker: Bruce Carter
Outside Linebacker: Dontay Moch
Inside Linebacker: Colin McCarthy
Cornerback: Ras-I Dowling
Cornerback: Brandon Burton
Safety: Marcus Gilchrist
Safety: Quinton Carter
Bailey is a versatile lineman who can play inside or outside, and is seen as a better inside pass rusher. You are not going to find a better student-athlete than Acho, and his game on the field has drawn comparisons to fellow Longhorn Brian Orakpo. Nevis and Ballard both need to bulk up some to play in the middle but are athletic enough to play end as well. Carter is coming off of a knee injury late in 2010, but when healthy he showed good range against the run and pass. Moch has tremendous speed who is a disruptive force in the backfield. McCarthy can play inside and outside and has a nose for the football. Dowling has the size to cover bigger receivers and Burton has the speed to run with the fastest on the outside. Gilchrist and Carter are both physical presences in the secondary and should be instant contributors on special teams.
It is three days until the 2011 NFL Draft. The stars are at the top of everyone's draft boards, but it is the picks on days two and three that will determine whether a teams' draft is a success.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Filling Out The Depth Chart-Offense
With four days until the 2011 NFL Draft, everyone knows about the players who are going to be selected at the top of the draft. Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers and all the rest of the potential first rounders have been dissected more than a frog in a high school biology class. Although there isn't a Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh or Matthew Stafford at the top of the draft, there is more than enough depth to fill out the rosters of all 32 teams in the league.
Looking at the draft, I have targeted an offensive and defensive roster that I will be keeping an eye on to see where they are selected and what kind of an impact they make in 2011. Many have been listed as possible first rounders in a number of mock drafts, but for the most part these players look to go late second round, third or fourth round:
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Running Back: Daniel Thomas
Running Back: DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver: Leonard Hankerson
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb
Tight End: Luke Stocker
Offensive Tackle: James Brewer
Offensive Tackle: Orlando Franklin
Offensive Guard: Clint Boling
Offensive Guard: Rodeny Hudson
Center: Stefan Wisniewski
Kaepernick has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, played in a non-pro style offense in college as did Newton, and looks to go in Round 3 where Newton will be a top 5 pick or first overall. He has his detractors who say that his game will take time to develop in the NFL, but as a later round pick he has that luxury where Newton will not. Thomas is Mr. Inside who can pound the ball between the tackles and Murray is Mr. Outside who looks to contribute as a third down specialist.
Hankerson showed his size and pass catching abilities at the Senior Bowl, and I believe he could sneak up into the early second round. Cobb is the versatile playmaker who has played quarterback, wide receiver and running back. A team looking for their Offensive Weapon similar to Dexter McCluster will find a place for Cobb. Stocker is a big target at 6'6" with very good hands.
Brewer is a man mountain who looks to fit in at right tackle or possibly guard, and Franklin looks to play the right side as well. Hudson and Boling both could use a little more size and strength to play the interior but have the talent needed to play in the NFL. Wisniewski is the top rated center with a very high football IQ who can play guard or center, but who could also use a little more size at this time.
I'll post my Defensive Depth Chart tomorrow. The 2011 NFL Draft is four days away. I'm looking forward to seeing who will be going where and how they fit into their new teams' systems. That's what the NFL Draft is all about.
Looking at the draft, I have targeted an offensive and defensive roster that I will be keeping an eye on to see where they are selected and what kind of an impact they make in 2011. Many have been listed as possible first rounders in a number of mock drafts, but for the most part these players look to go late second round, third or fourth round:
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Running Back: Daniel Thomas
Running Back: DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver: Leonard Hankerson
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb
Tight End: Luke Stocker
Offensive Tackle: James Brewer
Offensive Tackle: Orlando Franklin
Offensive Guard: Clint Boling
Offensive Guard: Rodeny Hudson
Center: Stefan Wisniewski
Kaepernick has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, played in a non-pro style offense in college as did Newton, and looks to go in Round 3 where Newton will be a top 5 pick or first overall. He has his detractors who say that his game will take time to develop in the NFL, but as a later round pick he has that luxury where Newton will not. Thomas is Mr. Inside who can pound the ball between the tackles and Murray is Mr. Outside who looks to contribute as a third down specialist.
Hankerson showed his size and pass catching abilities at the Senior Bowl, and I believe he could sneak up into the early second round. Cobb is the versatile playmaker who has played quarterback, wide receiver and running back. A team looking for their Offensive Weapon similar to Dexter McCluster will find a place for Cobb. Stocker is a big target at 6'6" with very good hands.
Brewer is a man mountain who looks to fit in at right tackle or possibly guard, and Franklin looks to play the right side as well. Hudson and Boling both could use a little more size and strength to play the interior but have the talent needed to play in the NFL. Wisniewski is the top rated center with a very high football IQ who can play guard or center, but who could also use a little more size at this time.
I'll post my Defensive Depth Chart tomorrow. The 2011 NFL Draft is four days away. I'm looking forward to seeing who will be going where and how they fit into their new teams' systems. That's what the NFL Draft is all about.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Draft Trade Regrets and the Binary Stars
I wonder how much regret the Carolina Panthers have now concerning the draft day trade they made with New England last season. You know they would not admit to it, but there has to be some in there somewhere.
Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.
Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.
We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.
In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.
Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.
Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.
The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.
If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.
Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.
Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.
We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.
In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.
Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.
Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.
The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.
If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Trench Warfare
It is a long held belief that games in the NFL are won and lost in the trenches. You can say what you want about quarterbacks, and don't get me wrong, it is the most important position in all of team sports, but the guys up front I call The Big Uglies are going to rule the 2011 NFL Draft.
Looking at the mock drafts I have been gathering information from for my DSA Player Rankings, there could very easily be up to 20 offensive and defensive lineman selected in the first round. The skill players get the press, but the coaches and general managers know what side their bread is buttered on. And it's never buttered when their own quarterback is on his backside and when the opponent's is not on his.
Protect the quarterback. You hear it all the time. You can't win if your quarterback is getting hit and does not have time to throw the ball. Offensive lineman, and particularly tackles, are always in high demand. All I've been hearing is how there isn't a franchise left tackle in the draft. There may not be, but there are six offensive lineman who appear to be solidly in the first round. Anthony Castonzo, Tyron Smith, Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, and Mike Pouncey look to be safe bets to have their names called on Day One. Danny Watkins is moving up a lot of draft boards and has an excellent chance to be a first rounder. Solder is the biggest project of the bunch but may have the most upside with his size and athletic ability. The others could start right away, and with the lockout still in effect teams will be drafting for need, they most likely will line up from the start.
The defensive line is as deep as it ever has been. The tackles that are almost certain to go in the first round include Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, and Corey Liuget, with Marvin Austin and Phil Taylor strong possibilities as well. As much as teams rely on the pass, if you can't stop the run you are in a world of trouble. All five tackles can clog up the middle, with Dareus and Fairley the best at putting pressure up the middle and getting to the quarterback.
The defensive ends are the reason the 2011 NFL Draft is as deep as it is. There are nine ends that teams are looking at to rush the quarterback and put him down. Da'Quan Bowers was long considered the best of the class until injury concerns started to creep up. Even so, he is still considered a top 25 pick, and it is possible that he will be the last of the nine selected. Robert Quinn, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers. Quarterbacks are going to be watching the draft and cringing with the thought that a division rival has taken a pass rusher and that he will have to face him twice a year. Now all the defensive lineman have to figure out is how to get by the offensive lineman selected in the first round as well. The chess match is about to begin. Chess played on a gridiron with The Big Uglies.
Looking at the mock drafts I have been gathering information from for my DSA Player Rankings, there could very easily be up to 20 offensive and defensive lineman selected in the first round. The skill players get the press, but the coaches and general managers know what side their bread is buttered on. And it's never buttered when their own quarterback is on his backside and when the opponent's is not on his.
Protect the quarterback. You hear it all the time. You can't win if your quarterback is getting hit and does not have time to throw the ball. Offensive lineman, and particularly tackles, are always in high demand. All I've been hearing is how there isn't a franchise left tackle in the draft. There may not be, but there are six offensive lineman who appear to be solidly in the first round. Anthony Castonzo, Tyron Smith, Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, and Mike Pouncey look to be safe bets to have their names called on Day One. Danny Watkins is moving up a lot of draft boards and has an excellent chance to be a first rounder. Solder is the biggest project of the bunch but may have the most upside with his size and athletic ability. The others could start right away, and with the lockout still in effect teams will be drafting for need, they most likely will line up from the start.
The defensive line is as deep as it ever has been. The tackles that are almost certain to go in the first round include Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, and Corey Liuget, with Marvin Austin and Phil Taylor strong possibilities as well. As much as teams rely on the pass, if you can't stop the run you are in a world of trouble. All five tackles can clog up the middle, with Dareus and Fairley the best at putting pressure up the middle and getting to the quarterback.
The defensive ends are the reason the 2011 NFL Draft is as deep as it is. There are nine ends that teams are looking at to rush the quarterback and put him down. Da'Quan Bowers was long considered the best of the class until injury concerns started to creep up. Even so, he is still considered a top 25 pick, and it is possible that he will be the last of the nine selected. Robert Quinn, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers. Quarterbacks are going to be watching the draft and cringing with the thought that a division rival has taken a pass rusher and that he will have to face him twice a year. Now all the defensive lineman have to figure out is how to get by the offensive lineman selected in the first round as well. The chess match is about to begin. Chess played on a gridiron with The Big Uglies.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Draft Day Trade Scenarios
Every year, the one thing that stirs up mock drafts of everyone who puts prospects to teams are draft day trade. But in 2011, with the uncertainty hanging over the game due to the lockout, trades may be few and far between.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Franchising in the 2nd Round
Going into the NFL Draft, teams that don't already their franchise quarterback are on the lookout for one. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and is also the face of the franchise. Selecting the right player can put a franchise on the path to greatness. The wrong pick can set a team back for years.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 5.0
The 2011 NFL Draft is now two weeks away. Mock drafts are coming fast and furious. And this is the point of the process where the draftniks need to be seen, and the best way is to make the shocking pick. Last year, it was Tim Tebow. Just about everyone had Tebow going in round 2 or later, then the Florida quarterback started creeping up the mock draft boards. Tebow had his highest mock draft slot at #9 to Buffalo, and eventually he went to Denver at #25.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Settling at the top
Trying to prognosticate the 2011 NFL Draft is like tossing a balloon into a tornado and trying to figure out where it's going to land. You can make a good guess, but that's about all it is. A guess. But by looking at the mock drafts that have been coming out lately, you can see quite a bit of settlement at the top of the draft.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
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