Friday, April 22, 2011

Draft Trade Regrets and the Binary Stars

I wonder how much regret the Carolina Panthers have now concerning the draft day trade they made with New England last season. You know they would not admit to it, but there has to be some in there somewhere.

Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.

Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.

We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.

In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.

Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.

Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.

The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.

If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.

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