All Star games at the professional level are, for the most part, offensive exhibitions where the objective is not so much to win as not get hurt. Baseball is the one exception. Pitchers can control the game like no other, and there does seem to be more pride for each league to win the game. The Senior Bowl for college football players is not just a game but a working job interview. It is a chance to impress the pro scouts, and more importantly, the NFL coaches in charge of each team.
This year, I noticed some players whose stock looked to rise and fall with their play on the field. The highest rated player going into the game was Von Miller, the linebacker from Texas A&M, and he played that way in the game. He was all over the field, making one tackle after another and even playing special teams. He could very well end up like Rolando McClain going into the draft from last season. McClain was seen as mid first round pick, but he wound up going 8th overall to Oakland. He started from Day 1 and looks to be the anchor of the Raiders defense for years to come. Miller was slotted by some experts in the 10th to 15th range, but he could very well jump inot the top 10 if he impresses at the NFL Scouting Combine as well.
Ryan Kerrigan was nearly unstoppable at Purdue coming off the edge, and had many comparing him to Chris Long. I don't believe anyone has him going 2nd overall, but his play in the Senior Bowl looked very much like Brandon Graham in 2010. Similar style of play, with a non-stop motor. Graham dominated the 2010 Senior Bowl, and his stock went through the roof. Philadelphia traded up to take him with the 13th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Kerrigan could go that high as well.
There were questions about Leonard Hankerson and his speed on the outside. I do believe that the best scouts will see past that and find a receiver who will have a solid career in the NFL. You can have all the speed you want at the receiver position (Darrius Heyward-Bey), but there will always be a place for a big receiver who can run a good route, find his way to the ball, and catch it when it comes his way. Hankerson was seen as a middle round selection, but I can see him going late 2nd down to middle 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Nate Solder was seen as the best or second best offensive tackle going into the Senior Bowl, and he has all the physical tools. But I saw a raw talent who missed blocks and played a bit too stiff at left tackle. If he gets thrown in right away in the pros his confidence could take a hit right away. If he is getting beat in the Senior Bowl, what is going to happen against the elite pass rushers in the NFL?
Then there is Jake Locker. He was seen as a possible #1 Overall Pick if had had come out early for the 2010 NFL Draft. He decided to stay in school and it has been all downhill since. No one questions his athletic ability, but consistency and accuracy are seen as the strikes against his development as an elite pro quarterback. He did very little to change the minds of draft experts. Locker was seen by many as going as high as #10 to Washington, but I'm beginning to believe that he may not get picked in the first round at all. It could be argued that Colin Kaepernick from Nevada played a better Senior Bowl than Locker. With the Cincinnati Bengals coaching both players in the Senior Bowl, and not having the Carson Palmer situation settled as of yet, it would be interesting to see which one of the 2 quarterbacks the Bengals might take with the third pick of the 2nd Round. My guess would be Locker. There is too much talent to pass up.
The draft hopefuls now look forward to the NFL Scouting Combine at the end of February in Indianapolis. With the Super Bowl a week away, draft season will soon be kicking into high gear. It looks to be a very deep draft once again, an dwith no clear cut #1 overall pick, it will be interesting to see just how many experts will be changing their mock drafts. We shall see.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Shaking up the top of the draft
It has been reported today that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer plans to demand a trade or he will retire. The last time a star player on the Bengals demanded a trade was Chad Johnson in 2008, and Mike Brown did not budge. Even after the Washington Redskins offered 2 first round picks for the star receiver. Brown held firm to his belief that the player should honor the contract.
So if Palmer does end up retiring, what does this mean for the 2011 NFL Draft? It means that Cincinnati will be looking for a quarterback, and if they take one that high it will be a stretch. Their depth chart has Jordan Palmer as the backup, and Dan LeFevour at No. 3. If you are going to say that the Bengals can win with either one of those two leading the offense then you are the most eternal of optimists. Jordan Palmer may be Carson's brother, but there is a reason he has bounced around the league. Listing him as a backup is a stretch. LeFevour was drafted by Chicago in 2010, and was released. He was a spread offense quarterback in college, but has not taken a snap in the pros. He may eventually become a good NFL quarterback, but I don't think anyone sees it happening in 2011.
So the Bengals, who should have been targeting A.J. Green or Da'Quan Bowers with the 4th overall selection, now may be looking for a quarterback. Consensus of opinion has Blaine Gabbert as the most pro ready prospect, but he is not nearly the polished talent Palmer was coming out of USC. And the Bengals sat Palmer his entire rookie season after taking him first overall in 2003.
But I believe the player Cincinnati may need for the quarterback position for more than one reason is Cam Newton. The Bengals have an offensive line built for the run. Palmer has spent the last 3 seasons getting battered and bruised, and the most mobile option may be the best one. Also, Cincinnati has had trouble selling tickets. Getting the Heisman Trophy winner would be a PR coup that could help the small market Bengals attract more fans into the stands. Newton would benefit from the Bengals re-signing Cedric Benson, and with a solid running game and a stable of good young receivers, there might not be as much pressure right away on Newton.
As talented as Newton is, 4th overall might be too high. The answer would be to trade down. But Mike Brown has not been known to make many draft trades, and his last big draft trade was to move up to #1 and select Ki-Jana Carter in 1995. Carter then blew out his knee on his second preseason carry, and his career was effectively over. If Carson Palmer retires, they will need to get a quality quarterback to replace him. If they do not get one of the four top prospects by the time they make the 35th pick of the draft, it could be a long, long, long season in Cincinnati.
So if Palmer does end up retiring, what does this mean for the 2011 NFL Draft? It means that Cincinnati will be looking for a quarterback, and if they take one that high it will be a stretch. Their depth chart has Jordan Palmer as the backup, and Dan LeFevour at No. 3. If you are going to say that the Bengals can win with either one of those two leading the offense then you are the most eternal of optimists. Jordan Palmer may be Carson's brother, but there is a reason he has bounced around the league. Listing him as a backup is a stretch. LeFevour was drafted by Chicago in 2010, and was released. He was a spread offense quarterback in college, but has not taken a snap in the pros. He may eventually become a good NFL quarterback, but I don't think anyone sees it happening in 2011.
So the Bengals, who should have been targeting A.J. Green or Da'Quan Bowers with the 4th overall selection, now may be looking for a quarterback. Consensus of opinion has Blaine Gabbert as the most pro ready prospect, but he is not nearly the polished talent Palmer was coming out of USC. And the Bengals sat Palmer his entire rookie season after taking him first overall in 2003.
But I believe the player Cincinnati may need for the quarterback position for more than one reason is Cam Newton. The Bengals have an offensive line built for the run. Palmer has spent the last 3 seasons getting battered and bruised, and the most mobile option may be the best one. Also, Cincinnati has had trouble selling tickets. Getting the Heisman Trophy winner would be a PR coup that could help the small market Bengals attract more fans into the stands. Newton would benefit from the Bengals re-signing Cedric Benson, and with a solid running game and a stable of good young receivers, there might not be as much pressure right away on Newton.
As talented as Newton is, 4th overall might be too high. The answer would be to trade down. But Mike Brown has not been known to make many draft trades, and his last big draft trade was to move up to #1 and select Ki-Jana Carter in 1995. Carter then blew out his knee on his second preseason carry, and his career was effectively over. If Carson Palmer retires, they will need to get a quality quarterback to replace him. If they do not get one of the four top prospects by the time they make the 35th pick of the draft, it could be a long, long, long season in Cincinnati.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Mock Drafts starting to roll
Mock Drafts for the 2011 NFL Draft have been coming out for a while now. Even back in November and December. But I've always been one to wait. Wait for the underclassmen to declare and wait for the Super Bowl so that the draft order is finalized. But today was the day that mock drafts became somewhat official, as Mel Kiper, Jr on ESPN and Charles Davis on NFL Network put out their first mock drafts.
My exclusive Draft Slot Average is based on player draft positions accumulated from many mock drafts, but that information will not be collected until after the Super Bowl. But it is interesting to see just how varied the early mocks are at this time.
The three most popular 1st Overall picks are A.J. Green, Nick Fairley, and Da'Quan Bowers. But I've seen Blaine Gabbert going first overall as well. Ryan Mallett going anywhere from 5th all the way down to 27th. Robert Quinn at 3rd overall down to the 25th pick. Stephen Paea from 8th to not even in the first round. The variations from one mock draft to another is unbelieveable. Which goes to show just how deep the draft is again this year.
In 2010, Sam Bradford was the solid choice to go #1 after his workout, and he moved into the top spot of my DSA player rankings with Ndamukong Suh the choice for second overall and Gerald McCoy third off the board. These choices held true, but in 2011 there looks to be such wide divisions in who will go where in the top 10 that I can see my DSA's going all over the board. So let the mock draft season begin, and I'll have my own posted the week after the Super Bowl and my first DSA rankings soon thereafter.
My exclusive Draft Slot Average is based on player draft positions accumulated from many mock drafts, but that information will not be collected until after the Super Bowl. But it is interesting to see just how varied the early mocks are at this time.
The three most popular 1st Overall picks are A.J. Green, Nick Fairley, and Da'Quan Bowers. But I've seen Blaine Gabbert going first overall as well. Ryan Mallett going anywhere from 5th all the way down to 27th. Robert Quinn at 3rd overall down to the 25th pick. Stephen Paea from 8th to not even in the first round. The variations from one mock draft to another is unbelieveable. Which goes to show just how deep the draft is again this year.
In 2010, Sam Bradford was the solid choice to go #1 after his workout, and he moved into the top spot of my DSA player rankings with Ndamukong Suh the choice for second overall and Gerald McCoy third off the board. These choices held true, but in 2011 there looks to be such wide divisions in who will go where in the top 10 that I can see my DSA's going all over the board. So let the mock draft season begin, and I'll have my own posted the week after the Super Bowl and my first DSA rankings soon thereafter.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Top of the Draft
Before the 2010 NFL Draft, there was a growing consensus as to who was going to be the Number One over all selection. After Sam Bradford worked out for scouts and was given the medical seal of approval, it was only a matter of waiting until draft day before the pick was made official. In 2011, the Carolina Panthers have the top choice, but it is far from certain who they will take.
I have already made the argument for Da'Quan Bowers, the defensive end from Clemson. If his game can translate to the professional level, he would make a devastating tandem of pass rushers with Charles Johnson. If a defense can put pressure on the quarterback and throw him off on his timing, it can help to cover up weaknesses in the back seven. Carolina is solid on defense, and a player such as Bowers will only make them better.
A pass rusher like Bowers can help stop a quarterback. A defensive tackle like Nick Fairley from Auburn is seen by many as being the key to stopping the running game and the anchor to the entire front seven. Ndamukong Suh showed how a tackle with tremendous athletic ability and a nasty streak can take over a defense. Suh will be one of the best in the league for a long time. Fairley is seen as having many of the same attributes. He is strong enough to stop the run up the middle and athletic enough to rush the quarterback. New Panthers head coach Ron Rivera was the defensive coordinator with the Chicago Bears and that defense was strong up the middle with Tommie Harris at tackle and Brian Urlacher. The Panthers could build a similar foundation with Fairley and Jon Beason.
But the majority of Carolina's problems lay on the offensive side of the ball. Injuries hit opening day quarterback Matt Moore, running backs Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and wide receiver Steve Smith. Jimmy Clausen didn't get the reps in pre-season that he would have needed, and it was very much a trial by fire. His main target is Smith, but he is developing the same problem that all receivers who rely on speed come down with. He is getting older. To take pressure off of Smith and to give Clausen a new primary target the Panthers could very well select A.J. Green from Georgia with the first pick. Green reminds many of Calvin Johnson, a talent of tremendous abilities and great hands. Green is the offensive playmaker that Carolina needs. But it remains to be seen if they will go that way on draft day.
I have already made the argument for Da'Quan Bowers, the defensive end from Clemson. If his game can translate to the professional level, he would make a devastating tandem of pass rushers with Charles Johnson. If a defense can put pressure on the quarterback and throw him off on his timing, it can help to cover up weaknesses in the back seven. Carolina is solid on defense, and a player such as Bowers will only make them better.
A pass rusher like Bowers can help stop a quarterback. A defensive tackle like Nick Fairley from Auburn is seen by many as being the key to stopping the running game and the anchor to the entire front seven. Ndamukong Suh showed how a tackle with tremendous athletic ability and a nasty streak can take over a defense. Suh will be one of the best in the league for a long time. Fairley is seen as having many of the same attributes. He is strong enough to stop the run up the middle and athletic enough to rush the quarterback. New Panthers head coach Ron Rivera was the defensive coordinator with the Chicago Bears and that defense was strong up the middle with Tommie Harris at tackle and Brian Urlacher. The Panthers could build a similar foundation with Fairley and Jon Beason.
But the majority of Carolina's problems lay on the offensive side of the ball. Injuries hit opening day quarterback Matt Moore, running backs Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and wide receiver Steve Smith. Jimmy Clausen didn't get the reps in pre-season that he would have needed, and it was very much a trial by fire. His main target is Smith, but he is developing the same problem that all receivers who rely on speed come down with. He is getting older. To take pressure off of Smith and to give Clausen a new primary target the Panthers could very well select A.J. Green from Georgia with the first pick. Green reminds many of Calvin Johnson, a talent of tremendous abilities and great hands. Green is the offensive playmaker that Carolina needs. But it remains to be seen if they will go that way on draft day.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Quarterbacks and more Quarterbacks
The NFL Playoffs are down to 4, with the New York Jets pulling off the upset at New England. If you look at the remaining teams, it shows how much teams value the quarterback position. Ben Roethlisberger is the old man of the group, coming into the league in 2004. He has won 2 Super Bowls, and is now making his fourth appearance in the AFC Championship Game. You can say what you want about his off-field problems, but Big Ben is the rock that the Steelers have built their foundation on. Remember all the talk at the beginning of the season about Pittsburgh trading Roethlisberger away because of all the problems and the bad light it put the franchise in? You don't hear much about that anymore, do you?
Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 with the thought that he would eventually replace Brett Favre. He sat and watched for three season, then Favre announced his retirement after the Packers loss in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers was made the starter, and when Favre announced he was coming back, the Packers did what many considered unthinkable and traded the Packer legend to the Jets. Rodgers has led the Packers to the playoffs the last two seasons, and was nearly perfect in a dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday. Packer fans may have felt the front office was out of their minds to trade Favre. I don't think too many feel that way now.
The Chicago Bears looked like they might be mortgaging their future a bit when they traded for Jay Cutler. The move left them with no picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft, and though he has ability to burn, Cutler had yet to prove himself a winner in Denver. His first season in Chicago saw Cutler getting intercepted at an alarming rate, and winding up on his backside just as often. But the arrival of Mike Martz has had a tremendous effect on Cutler, and this weekend he became the first quarterback to throw for 2 touchdowns and run for 2 in the same game since Otto Graham. He is now one game away from leading the Bears to the Super Bowl.
The New York Jets traded up with Cleveland to select Mark Sanchez with the 5th Overall selection of the 2009 NFL Draft. Combined with Coach Rex Ryan, they have given the Jets a swagger and confidence that the franchise has not had for years, and now they have won 4 road playoff games in their first two seasons. After getting handily beaten in December by the Patriots, the Jets went into Foxboro and knocked off the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. Now they are one game away from leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl since another quarterback with an excess of confidence, Joe Namath, led New York to victory in Super Bowl III.
Quarterback is the most important position in team sports. Next weekend, four quarterbacks that their teams have trusted with the keys to the franchise will try to drive them to the ultimate destination, the Super Bowl. With the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft, teams will be looking for find the quarterback that can lead their teams to the same destination. Will it be Ryan Mallett? Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, or Jake Locker? Or will it be a diamond in the rough like Tom Brady? Only time, and Lombardi Trophies, will tell the whole story.
Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 with the thought that he would eventually replace Brett Favre. He sat and watched for three season, then Favre announced his retirement after the Packers loss in the 2007 NFC Championship game. Rodgers was made the starter, and when Favre announced he was coming back, the Packers did what many considered unthinkable and traded the Packer legend to the Jets. Rodgers has led the Packers to the playoffs the last two seasons, and was nearly perfect in a dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday. Packer fans may have felt the front office was out of their minds to trade Favre. I don't think too many feel that way now.
The Chicago Bears looked like they might be mortgaging their future a bit when they traded for Jay Cutler. The move left them with no picks in the first 2 rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft, and though he has ability to burn, Cutler had yet to prove himself a winner in Denver. His first season in Chicago saw Cutler getting intercepted at an alarming rate, and winding up on his backside just as often. But the arrival of Mike Martz has had a tremendous effect on Cutler, and this weekend he became the first quarterback to throw for 2 touchdowns and run for 2 in the same game since Otto Graham. He is now one game away from leading the Bears to the Super Bowl.
The New York Jets traded up with Cleveland to select Mark Sanchez with the 5th Overall selection of the 2009 NFL Draft. Combined with Coach Rex Ryan, they have given the Jets a swagger and confidence that the franchise has not had for years, and now they have won 4 road playoff games in their first two seasons. After getting handily beaten in December by the Patriots, the Jets went into Foxboro and knocked off the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. Now they are one game away from leading the Jets to their first Super Bowl since another quarterback with an excess of confidence, Joe Namath, led New York to victory in Super Bowl III.
Quarterback is the most important position in team sports. Next weekend, four quarterbacks that their teams have trusted with the keys to the franchise will try to drive them to the ultimate destination, the Super Bowl. With the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft, teams will be looking for find the quarterback that can lead their teams to the same destination. Will it be Ryan Mallett? Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, or Jake Locker? Or will it be a diamond in the rough like Tom Brady? Only time, and Lombardi Trophies, will tell the whole story.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
To Enter the Draft or Not Enter the Draft...
...That is the question. And it seems that there are more underclassmen with NFL level talent deciding to stay in school. Andrew Luck has been the biggest name, but two players who could have an impact on the draft decided to stay in college today.
Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd were considered two of the best wide receiver prospects for the 2011 NFL Draft. A.J. Green is at the top of the list. Blackmon was widely regarded as the number two choice, and Floyd perhaps 4th or 5th. A rookie wide receiver can be a dynamic playmaker from the start, and Blackmon was seen as going anywhere from 6th to Cleveland down to 14th and the St. Louis Rams. Floyd has been projected as a late first round but more likely a second round selection. A team needing a solid receiving threat could go for defense in the first round and pick up Floyd early in the 2nd. A team looking for that scenario could very easily have been the Cincinnati Bengals.
You can say all you want about players wanting to stay in school, get their degrees, and wanting to play for championships, and I'll be the first to applaud any player who does just that. But with the uncertainty of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, a player who stays in school will get to play NCAA football next season. Coming out early this year may lead to a year of inactivity. Let's all hope that the powers that be have enough sense to slice the money pie so that everyone gets a taste.
Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd were considered two of the best wide receiver prospects for the 2011 NFL Draft. A.J. Green is at the top of the list. Blackmon was widely regarded as the number two choice, and Floyd perhaps 4th or 5th. A rookie wide receiver can be a dynamic playmaker from the start, and Blackmon was seen as going anywhere from 6th to Cleveland down to 14th and the St. Louis Rams. Floyd has been projected as a late first round but more likely a second round selection. A team needing a solid receiving threat could go for defense in the first round and pick up Floyd early in the 2nd. A team looking for that scenario could very easily have been the Cincinnati Bengals.
You can say all you want about players wanting to stay in school, get their degrees, and wanting to play for championships, and I'll be the first to applaud any player who does just that. But with the uncertainty of the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, a player who stays in school will get to play NCAA football next season. Coming out early this year may lead to a year of inactivity. Let's all hope that the powers that be have enough sense to slice the money pie so that everyone gets a taste.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
End of the season
With their victory in the BCS Championship Game, Auburn claimed the National Title and capped an exciting season of college football. Now with 4 days until the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the 2011 NFL Draft the season for analyzing players and their draft prospects has begun.
For me, there are two players that dramatically increased their draft stock with their performance in the post-season bowl games. They are Nick Fairley, defensive tackle from Auburn, and Cameron Heyward, defensive end from Ohio State.
Fairley was seen as a top 5 pick if he decides to enter the draft, and after his performance against Oregon he is now seen as a possible 1st Overall selection. In the championship game he spent most of his time in the Ducks backfield. The best players bring their best games to the biggest stages, and Fairley was an unstoppable force. Now he is drawing comparisons to Ndamukong Suh, but I believe that is a bit premature. Suh was dominant enough in the 2009 season to be named the AP Player of the Year. He showed in his rookie season with the Detroit Lions that he will be one of the best defensive players for years to come in the NFL. Fairley can attain that same status if he can bring his best game to the next biggest stage, that being the NFL. But as of now he has not declared for the draft, so we will wait and see what his decision will be.
Whatever team Ryan Mallett winds up on, I imagine he is hoping that Heyward does not end up on a division rival. Heyward showed the speed and strength that coaches in the NFL covet greatly for a defensive end, and he was a disruptive force the entire game for the Buckeyes in their win against Arkansas. NFL offensive tackles are getting quicker and more mobile all the time, and a defensive end cannot rely on speed alone to get to the quarterback. Undersized defensive ends like Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey and Aaron Maybin have been top 11 draft picks in recent drafts, and can't make it on the field. I see Heyward as having the combination of size, speed and strength needed to play both end and tackle in the NFL, and his showing in the Sugar Bowl should help his draft stock rise. Many early mock drafts have Heyward gong in the mid to late 1st Round, but it would not be a stretch for him to jump up towards the top 10 if he has an excellent workout at the February NFL Scouting Combine.
I labeled the 2010 NFL Draft as The Year of The Big Uglies, due to the prominence of offensive and defensive lineman at the top of the draft. With the committment of Andrew Luck to stay at Stanford, and no quarterback looking to go higher than 7th to San Francisco, the 2011 NFL Draft is shaping up to be Big Uglies Part 2.
For me, there are two players that dramatically increased their draft stock with their performance in the post-season bowl games. They are Nick Fairley, defensive tackle from Auburn, and Cameron Heyward, defensive end from Ohio State.
Fairley was seen as a top 5 pick if he decides to enter the draft, and after his performance against Oregon he is now seen as a possible 1st Overall selection. In the championship game he spent most of his time in the Ducks backfield. The best players bring their best games to the biggest stages, and Fairley was an unstoppable force. Now he is drawing comparisons to Ndamukong Suh, but I believe that is a bit premature. Suh was dominant enough in the 2009 season to be named the AP Player of the Year. He showed in his rookie season with the Detroit Lions that he will be one of the best defensive players for years to come in the NFL. Fairley can attain that same status if he can bring his best game to the next biggest stage, that being the NFL. But as of now he has not declared for the draft, so we will wait and see what his decision will be.
Whatever team Ryan Mallett winds up on, I imagine he is hoping that Heyward does not end up on a division rival. Heyward showed the speed and strength that coaches in the NFL covet greatly for a defensive end, and he was a disruptive force the entire game for the Buckeyes in their win against Arkansas. NFL offensive tackles are getting quicker and more mobile all the time, and a defensive end cannot rely on speed alone to get to the quarterback. Undersized defensive ends like Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey and Aaron Maybin have been top 11 draft picks in recent drafts, and can't make it on the field. I see Heyward as having the combination of size, speed and strength needed to play both end and tackle in the NFL, and his showing in the Sugar Bowl should help his draft stock rise. Many early mock drafts have Heyward gong in the mid to late 1st Round, but it would not be a stretch for him to jump up towards the top 10 if he has an excellent workout at the February NFL Scouting Combine.
I labeled the 2010 NFL Draft as The Year of The Big Uglies, due to the prominence of offensive and defensive lineman at the top of the draft. With the committment of Andrew Luck to stay at Stanford, and no quarterback looking to go higher than 7th to San Francisco, the 2011 NFL Draft is shaping up to be Big Uglies Part 2.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Depths of the Draft (Or lack thereof)
The 2011 NFL Draft is starting to take shape. Mock Drafts have been rolling out for a month now, even though underclassmen have until the 15th to declare. I have started accumulating data on prospects for my Draft Slot Average rankings and I have noticed a severe lack of depth at one position. Tight End.
In the 2010 NFL Draft, there were 10 tight ends taken in the first 132 selections. Many of these players had a significant impact on their team. Jermaine Gresham was the first off the board, and he became a favorite target for Carson Palmer late in the year. Jimmy Graham developed very nicely for Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints, even with his lack of experience at the collegiate level. Tony Moeaki made significant contributions for the Kansas City Chiefs in their run to the AFC West title, and Michael Hoomanawanui did as well for the resurgent St. Louis Rams.
But there is no denying the impact that Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had with the New England Patriots. With a sulking Randy Moss shipped out in midseason, Tom Brady looked towards his two young targets and they put up numbers that no one could have expected. They combined for 87 receptions for 1109 yards and 16 touchdowns. It can be argued that Brady had a better season than his record setting year in 2007, and you won't get any argument from me. Two tight end sets have been popular with power running teams for many years, but the Patriots used the formation to operate a dominant passing game. The NFL has always been known as a copycat league, so you can expect many teams to follow suit on what the Patriots had success with this season.
But the 2011 NFL Draft appears to be lacking at depth for the tight end position. Extremely lacking. From the data I've gathered so far on the top prospects, of the 107 players I have listed for the DSAs the only tight end at the top of the draft is Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame.
Rudolph looks to have all the physical tools to play in the NFL, and he looks to be a late first or early second round pick. A good fit of Rudolph looks to be Atlanta, where he can learn from the great Tony Gonzalez and provide the second option at the position for Matt Ryan. But if teams are looking to expand their passing games with a two tight end set, and if they are looking for help from the draft, they may be looking to Day 3 to find the help they are want at the position.
In the 2010 NFL Draft, there were 10 tight ends taken in the first 132 selections. Many of these players had a significant impact on their team. Jermaine Gresham was the first off the board, and he became a favorite target for Carson Palmer late in the year. Jimmy Graham developed very nicely for Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints, even with his lack of experience at the collegiate level. Tony Moeaki made significant contributions for the Kansas City Chiefs in their run to the AFC West title, and Michael Hoomanawanui did as well for the resurgent St. Louis Rams.
But there is no denying the impact that Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had with the New England Patriots. With a sulking Randy Moss shipped out in midseason, Tom Brady looked towards his two young targets and they put up numbers that no one could have expected. They combined for 87 receptions for 1109 yards and 16 touchdowns. It can be argued that Brady had a better season than his record setting year in 2007, and you won't get any argument from me. Two tight end sets have been popular with power running teams for many years, but the Patriots used the formation to operate a dominant passing game. The NFL has always been known as a copycat league, so you can expect many teams to follow suit on what the Patriots had success with this season.
But the 2011 NFL Draft appears to be lacking at depth for the tight end position. Extremely lacking. From the data I've gathered so far on the top prospects, of the 107 players I have listed for the DSAs the only tight end at the top of the draft is Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame.
Rudolph looks to have all the physical tools to play in the NFL, and he looks to be a late first or early second round pick. A good fit of Rudolph looks to be Atlanta, where he can learn from the great Tony Gonzalez and provide the second option at the position for Matt Ryan. But if teams are looking to expand their passing games with a two tight end set, and if they are looking for help from the draft, they may be looking to Day 3 to find the help they are want at the position.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Carolina has no Luck at all
Andrew Luck has made his decision, and he is remaining at Stanford. The 2011 NFL Draft has lost it's brightest star, but there is still plenty of talented players on the board and yet to declare. Now the Carolina Panthers have a franchise altering decision to make. Do they use the 1st Overall Selection of the draft on a quarterback, or do they believe that Jimmy Clausen or Matt Moore is the answer and go in another direction.
The top four quarterbacks are Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. I believe that Carolina will see their two incumbents and say that they are better off with Clausen and Moore. So it looks like they may be headed to shoring up the defense.
When Carolina came off of a 1-15 season in 2001, their first draft pick the next year was Julius Peppers. Peppers was a freak at the defensive end position. Tall enough to play basketball in college, and strong and fast enough to consistently pressure quarterbacks in the NFL. He was the cornerstone of the Panthers defense that made it to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and earned the #2 Seed in the NFC after the 2008 season. But Peppers left for Chicago via free agency, and though Charles Johnson emerged as a pass rushing threat, the Panthers defense still ranked near the bottom of the league.
The NFL is a quarterback driven league. You need one to lead the offense, and you need to get to the other teams' quarterback to stop the opposition. If the Panthers do not get Johnson help on at the other end, he will face more and more double teams and his production will drop. So with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers select...Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end fro Clemson.
Bowers was all but unblockable last season at Clemson. 24 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. If he were paired with Johnson the Panthers would have a pass rushing duo that compares favorably to a younger version of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in Indianapolis. If Bowers can translate his success at Clemson to the NFL he coudl very easily be the taken at the top of the draft.
Carolina has 3 and a half months to determine if they player they are going to select will have the impact that Julius Peppers had 9 years ago. The right decision get them out of the cellar. The wrong decision keeps them on the clock for the 2012 NFL Draft. We shall see.
The top four quarterbacks are Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. I believe that Carolina will see their two incumbents and say that they are better off with Clausen and Moore. So it looks like they may be headed to shoring up the defense.
When Carolina came off of a 1-15 season in 2001, their first draft pick the next year was Julius Peppers. Peppers was a freak at the defensive end position. Tall enough to play basketball in college, and strong and fast enough to consistently pressure quarterbacks in the NFL. He was the cornerstone of the Panthers defense that made it to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and earned the #2 Seed in the NFC after the 2008 season. But Peppers left for Chicago via free agency, and though Charles Johnson emerged as a pass rushing threat, the Panthers defense still ranked near the bottom of the league.
The NFL is a quarterback driven league. You need one to lead the offense, and you need to get to the other teams' quarterback to stop the opposition. If the Panthers do not get Johnson help on at the other end, he will face more and more double teams and his production will drop. So with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Carolina Panthers select...Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end fro Clemson.
Bowers was all but unblockable last season at Clemson. 24 tackles for loss and 15 sacks. If he were paired with Johnson the Panthers would have a pass rushing duo that compares favorably to a younger version of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in Indianapolis. If Bowers can translate his success at Clemson to the NFL he coudl very easily be the taken at the top of the draft.
Carolina has 3 and a half months to determine if they player they are going to select will have the impact that Julius Peppers had 9 years ago. The right decision get them out of the cellar. The wrong decision keeps them on the clock for the 2012 NFL Draft. We shall see.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
#1 With A Bullet
After his performance in the Orange Bowl, Andrew Luck all but cemented his status as the first overall selection in the upcoming 2011 NFL Draft. Now there are two big questions surrounding the selection of Luck. Will Carolina hold onto the pick, and will Luck enter the draft.
Carolina has a lot of needs, as most 2-14 teams have, and the big question is do they believe in either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. There are a lot of teams that need a quarterback, and with the depth at the position this year they may feel that their future franchise quarterback can be found later in the first round. But Luck is as good of a quarterback prospect since Troy Aikman. Accurate, smart, and pro ready. But with Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton in this draft, the Panthers may decide that if someone offers a Ricky Williams blockbuster deal that it would be too good to pass up with all of their needs on both sides of the ball.
But what may be the bigger question is whether Luck will enter the draft at all. And there are three words that may determine his entry: Collective Bargaining Agreement. Luck is a sophomore eligible, so he has 2 years remaining in college if he decides to stay. The NFL and it's players association appear to be heading for a standoff, and there is a very good chance that a long lockout will ensue. If it looks like there may not be pro football next season, Luck may stay in school, where he knows that Stanford will suit up in 2011. The deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th. Luck has eleven days to make up his mind. He is living his own version of an old country song. Heads Carolina. Tails California. We shall see.
Carolina has a lot of needs, as most 2-14 teams have, and the big question is do they believe in either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. There are a lot of teams that need a quarterback, and with the depth at the position this year they may feel that their future franchise quarterback can be found later in the first round. But Luck is as good of a quarterback prospect since Troy Aikman. Accurate, smart, and pro ready. But with Ryan Mallet, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker and Cam Newton in this draft, the Panthers may decide that if someone offers a Ricky Williams blockbuster deal that it would be too good to pass up with all of their needs on both sides of the ball.
But what may be the bigger question is whether Luck will enter the draft at all. And there are three words that may determine his entry: Collective Bargaining Agreement. Luck is a sophomore eligible, so he has 2 years remaining in college if he decides to stay. The NFL and it's players association appear to be heading for a standoff, and there is a very good chance that a long lockout will ensue. If it looks like there may not be pro football next season, Luck may stay in school, where he knows that Stanford will suit up in 2011. The deadline for underclassmen to declare is January 15th. Luck has eleven days to make up his mind. He is living his own version of an old country song. Heads Carolina. Tails California. We shall see.
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