Sunday, January 9, 2011

Depths of the Draft (Or lack thereof)

The 2011 NFL Draft is starting to take shape. Mock Drafts have been rolling out for a month now, even though underclassmen have until the 15th to declare. I have started accumulating data on prospects for my Draft Slot Average rankings and I have noticed a severe lack of depth at one position. Tight End.

In the 2010 NFL Draft, there were 10 tight ends taken in the first 132 selections. Many of these players had a significant impact on their team. Jermaine Gresham was the first off the board, and he became a favorite target for Carson Palmer late in the year. Jimmy Graham developed very nicely for Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints, even with his lack of experience at the collegiate level. Tony Moeaki made significant contributions for the Kansas City Chiefs in their run to the AFC West title, and Michael Hoomanawanui did as well for the resurgent St. Louis Rams.

But there is no denying the impact that Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had with the New England Patriots. With a sulking Randy Moss shipped out in midseason, Tom Brady looked towards his two young targets and they put up numbers that no one could have expected. They combined for 87 receptions for 1109 yards and 16 touchdowns. It can be argued that Brady had a better season than his record setting year in 2007, and you won't get any argument from me. Two tight end sets have been popular with power running teams for many years, but the Patriots used the formation to operate a dominant passing game. The NFL has always been known as a copycat league, so you can expect many teams to follow suit on what the Patriots had success with this season.

But the 2011 NFL Draft appears to be lacking at depth for the tight end position. Extremely lacking. From the data I've gathered so far on the top prospects, of the 107 players I have listed for the DSAs the only tight end at the top of the draft is Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame.

Rudolph looks to have all the physical tools to play in the NFL, and he looks to be a late first or early second round pick. A good fit of Rudolph looks to be Atlanta, where he can learn from the great Tony Gonzalez and provide the second option at the position for Matt Ryan. But if teams are looking to expand their passing games with a two tight end set, and if they are looking for help from the draft, they may be looking to Day 3 to find the help they are want at the position.

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