How does your Mock Draft look now?

If it looks anything like my NCAA Tournament Bracket after Day 1, it's probably needs to find the nearest shredder. Free agency has been going full tilt for over a week now, and the moves that have been made are sure to have an impact on the first round of the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft. Kansas City looked to be in the market for a quarterback, wide reciever and tackle. But the Chiefs traded for Alex Smith to run the offense, re-signed Dwayne Bowe and picked up Donnie Avery to catch the ball, and placed the franchise tag on left tackle Brandon Albert. Kansas City is looking for a right tackle to bookend Albert, and to eventually replace him, and Luke Joeckel is still on their radar. One thing that Andy Reid might be looking for is a tradig partner for that top pick, since the Chiefs gave up their second rounder to San Francisco for Smith. But I don't see it happening. The draft is loaded with good players but not the superstars that past drafts have featured. Why would a team trade up to get a player and give up other picks when they can get another pick that is just as good? So for my money KC is still on the clock, and I see them selectnig from a group of Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Star Lotulelei and Sharif Floyd. It all depends on which side of the ball they want to upgrade at the top. Two teams that are looking for quarterbacks continue to be Arizona and Buffalo. Arizona signed Drew Stanton, but I don't think this is pleasing Larry Fitzgerald too terribly much. Now the Cardinals have Stanton, John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley to compete for the starting job. My suggestion: get rid of all 4, and draft either Geno Smith or Matt Barkley and start fresh, just the same way new coach Bruce Arians did last year in Indianapolis with Andrew Luck. Now I am not saying that Smith or Barkley is anywhere near the level of Luck, but putting four bald tires on your car is not going to improve the overall performance. Time for a complete overhaul, and you have to start at quarterback. Buffalo did the opposite of Arizona. They just cut their starting quarterback. After giving Ryan Fitzpatrick a huge contract in 2011, they parted ways with Fitzpatrick and now the Bills are faced with a bit of a dilemna. Do they stay put at #8 and take whoever the Cardinals do not select, or do they trade up and leapfrog Arizona and get their man. This is going to be a classic example of Panic in the Draft Room. I don't see a move up to the top with Kansas City, but I would nto be surprised to see Jacksonville move down. The Jags need defensive help, and they can get that at #8 as well as #2, and the prospect of acquiring picks that they gave away to select Justin Blackmon has to be appealing to the Jaguars. Minnesota traded Percy Harvin and then signed Greg Jennings, so their need for a receiver is still there. Miami was a popular landing spot for Cordarrelle Patterson, but with the signing of Mike Wallace look for the Dolphins to go defensive with Xavier Rhodes to take over at cornerback, or Lane Johnson to replace former #1 Overall Pick Jake Long. If Ryan Tannehill is your future quarterback, you better have his backside covered with a franchise tackle. Johnson can fill the bill. And just today the news came out that Tampa Bay will trade a 1st and 2nd Round pick in 2014 to the NY Jets for Darrelle Revis. I have had the Bucs going cornerback in the first round and targeting Xavier Rhodes as well. One might think that with Revis on board that corner would not be a priority. I see that is can still be for Tampa. Revis is still rehabbing a torn ACL, and his status is still up in the air. But I have always been an advocate of having 2 shutdown corners and turning the pass rush loose. Want to get to the quarterback? It's a lot easier if he can't find an open receiver to throw the ball to. Putting Rhodes opposite Revis would create the Florida Keys. One island in line with another. Much has been said about Baltimore losing so many players on defense. Ray Lewis retires. Ed Reed is on his way to Houston. Paul Kruger signed as a free agent with Cleveland. Bernard Pollard is now a member of the Titans. But the Ravens have one of the best GMs in the league with Ozzie Newsome, so I don't see too many holes on the roster come training camp. Now the team that really has my head needing a good scratch is Cincinnati. The Bengals went into free agnecy with over $40 million in cap space, and what have they done-not much of anything. The placed the franchise tag on defensive end Michael Johnson, and re-signed Wallace Gilberry, Rey Maualuga, Mike Nugent, Clark Harris and Adam Jones. They have yet to sign a player from the open market, and have not struck a deal with Andre Smith to bring him back to play right tackle. This is what happens when your owner is also the GM, and the owner is a tightwad. Just about everyone will agree that the Bengals are ready to get over the hurdle, win in the playoffs and make a run at the Super Bowl. But when you have the cap space to improve your team and you don't, you shouldn't expect your team to improve. The talent is there in Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Geno Atkins, but apparently Brown is happy picking 21st every year, since that is the pick which goes to the team that makes the playoffs and has the worst record of those that lose in the divisional round. 2013 is the 3rd time in 4 years that Cincinnati has picked in that particular slot. There is still time to make some moves in free agency. Now it will be seen if the Bengals can make the moves they need to make a run through the playoffs. I will be putting together the Post-Free Agency DSA Player Rankings, and it will be interesting to see who has who going where now that the veterans have found their landing spots. It's five week until the 2013 NFL Draft. Let the mock draft roll on in.

Prelude to Free Agent Feeding Frenzy

The start of the NFL's free agent signing period 'officially' starts tomorrow, and the frenzy to get players has already started. Agents have been able to talk to teams for three days now, so when 4 pm comes around and the deals can be made official, they should start to come fast and furious. But two trades today that were announced will have a huge impact on the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft. The Baltimore Ravens pretty much told Anquan Boldin to stick it, and agreed to trade the wide receiver for what could amount to a cup of coffee in a 6th Round pick. Boldin is entering his 11th season in the NFL, but he is still a very productive receiver who, when on the field with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore, is going to give Colin Kaepernick one of the best receiving corps in the game. San Francisco was sitting at #31 and #34, and if they had any thoughts of taking a receiver at that point it's pretty much out the window. What will be interesting to see is what will happen to last year's first round pick in A.J. Jenkins. Jenkins was a non-factor the entire season, and if the 49ers feel that they can sign Boldin for a couple of more seasons without breaking the bank, San Francisco may just try to trade Jenkins and get back that sixth rounder. But with their load of picks still remaining, Jenkins may just find himself a casualty when roster cuts come around. The other big trade that was announced has Percy Harvin going to Seattle for a first round and seventh round pick this year, and a pick next season. The deal is contingent on Harvin passing a physical, but if he gets the all clear the Seahawks will be getting a dynamic playmaker who is a significant upgrade to whoever they may have gotten at #25. Now Minnesota is most certainly going to be taking a wide receiver in the first round. The Vikings went into the off-season looking to add an outside threat to help quarterback Christian Ponder and take some of the load off of Adrian Peterson. Now Ponder doesn't have anyone his most dangerous weapon to throw to, and it will be seen if Minnesota takes not just one but maybe two receivers in Round 1. I believe that Cordarrelle Patterson and Keenan Allen will be off the board by the time Minnesota selects at #23, But if they could pick up the tandem of Tavon Austin and Justin Hunter it will be interesting to see how the Kiddie Korps develops over time for the Vikings. I will be releasing the Post-Start of Free Agency DSA Player Rankings later in the week, and the signings and trades that will be announced starting tomorrow will start to round in to shape what teams will be looking to draft what players in next months 2013 NFL Draft. Let the feeding frenzy begin.

2013 DSA Player Rankings 4.0--Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition

We are just over a week removed from the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine, and Pro Days are starting up at universities and colleges all across the nation. Free agancy begins in less than a week, and mock drafts are starting to reflect the moves already made and those that may be made. The players at the top of the mock drafts appear to be pretty much set, and those at the bottom half of Round 1 look like they could be listed in any order and no one would be surprised. I call this the Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, version 4.0. Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher are still in the top 2 slots, Dee Milliner and Dion Jordan are still #4 and #5 respectively, Ezekiel Ansah is #7 and Barkevious Mingo is #9. Geno Smith and Sharrif Floyd exchanged positions at #3 and #6, with Floyd moving up behind Joeckel and Fisher in the top three. The biggest move up in the top half was Jarvis Jones, now at #11, and the largest drop at the top was Bjoern Werner, falling six moer positions to #14. Looking at the top 18 players, there isn't that big of a talent gap among the group. A player like Kenny Vaccaro or Xavier Rhodes could easily move up to the top 10 if a team values their talent enough, and Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah could fall to the middle of Round 1 if they are seen as too raw or unpolished. But for now I do not see anyone making the jump up into the top group. The reason is that the gap between player ratings I mentioned in the previous DSA's is getting even larger. Vaccaro is stuck in the middle, but there is now a nearly 6 point gap between Jonathon Cooper at #17 and Keenan Allen at #19. The players at the bottom are bunched up ratings points wise. Less than 3 points separate six players from #20 to #25, and the last seven spots are less than 2 points apart. The biggest risers and fallers are found in the lower half. Sylvester Williams makes his first appearance at #27, and Sam Montgomery is back in at #34. Montgomery at the same position as the first DSA's this year, but his score is a full three points less. Arthur Brown also makes his first appearance, and he nearly surpassed Manti Te'o. If Te'o does not impress during his Pro Day at Notre Dame, look for the Heisman Trophy runner-up to start showing up in Round 2 of mock drafts everywhere. So here is the 2013 DSA Player Rankings 4.0--The Settling In/Bottoming Out Edition: 1) Luke Joeckel 1.40 2) Eric Fisher 4.30 3) Sharrif Floyd 4.70 4) Dee Milliner 5.00 5) Dion Jordan 5.10 6) Geno Smith 6.30 7) Ezekiel Ansah 8.40 8) Lane Johnson 10.60 9) Barkevious Mingo 10.70 10) Cordarrelle Patterson 11.90 11) Jarvis Jones 13.00 12) Star Lotulelei 13.10 13) Chance Warmack 13.30 14) Bjoern Werner 14.30 15) Xavier Rhodes 14.60 16) Sheldon Richardson 14.70 17) Jonathon Cooper 15.90 18) Kenny Vaccaro 18.30 19) Keenan Allen 21.40 20) Damontre Moore 22.70 21) Tyler Eifert 22.70 22) D.J. Fluker 23.80 23) Alec Ogletree 24.30 24) Desmond Trufant 25.40 25) Tavon Austin 25.50 26) Datone Jones 28.90 27) Sylvester Williams 29.30 28) Johnathon Hankins 30.40 29) DeAndre Hopkins 33.00 30) Kawann Short 33.40 31) Manti Te'o 33.50 32) Arthur Brown 33.90 33) Cornelius Carradine 34.30 34) Sam Montgomery 34.60 35) Matt Elam 34.90 In case you are wondering what has happened to Matt Barkley, of the ten mock drafts I compiled for this DSA, he was at #9 in one and out of the other 9. In fact, Tyler Wilson had a higher grade, as he was at #8 in one and out of the other 9 as well. The rumors coming out of the Scouting Combine about the Cardinals taking Barkley at #7 seem to be fading. I have made the bold prediction that 5 quarterbacks will be selected in the 1st Round, and right now I can say that there will need to be a severe case of Panic In The Draft Room for it to happen. Geno Smith looks to go in either the seventh, eighth, or ninth picks, and any other quarterbacks will most likely go at the bottom of Round 1 via teams trading up to get their quarterback of the future. Considering how deep and balanced this draft is, who goes where and when is not going to surprise me at all. So far, I have listed 56 players from various mock drafts that have gotten a first round grade. That is nearly enough to fill the first 2 rounds. I will say this: someone is really going to have to screw up their picks to get a draft grade below a C this year. Let the Pro Days commence, and let's see who is moving up and down for the next edition of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings.

Dealing From and To the Top

In the last week, the NFL Scouting Combine has come to an end, teams have designated their Franchise Players, trades and free agent signings that will become official on March 12th have been finalized. The one team that has done the most that is going to shake up the 2013 NFL Draft has been the Kansas City Chiefs. Many people (including myself) had Geno Smith tagged at the top of their mock drafts, even in a weak year for quarterbacks in the draft. But Andy Reid and the Chiefs shot down that thought when they agreed to acquire Alex Smith from the 49ers for the Chiefs second round pick this year and a comditional pick next year. After this deal, with the need to take a quarterback not a priority, everyone looked to Luke Joeckel as the presumtive 1st Overall Selection in the upcoming draft. Joeckel is seen as the best player in the draft. Big and can get bigger without losing effectiveness. Quick, agile and mobile to play left tackle from the get-go. Kansas City looked to have a need at tackle, as it appeared that they would not re-sign or franchise tag Brandon Albert, their starting left tackle. Joeckel seemed to be a no-brainer, unless the Chiefs fell in love with Eric Fisher to play the same position. But today, Kansas City placed the franchise tag on Brandon Albert, and agreed to a long term deal with wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. When this was announced, I can only imagine the smile on the face of Alex Smith. Smith excelled the past 2 seasons in San Francisco playing behind one of the best lines in the game, handing the ball off to a stud running back, and tossing the ball to a compliment of receivers and a star tight end that any signal caller in the NFL would love to have. Now Smith has Jamaal Charles to hand the ball off to, Bowe and Jonathon Baldwin to throw to on the outside, and Tony Moeaki at tight end. His offensive line could be very good with the addition of Joeckel, and there are a couple of scenarios involved with Joeckel and Albert. One would have Joeckel playing right tackle, and taking over the left side if Albert does not return next year. Another has Albert moving to left guard, where he played in college at Virginia and having Joeckel at left tackle from the start. But it the Chiefs are intent on keeping Albert long term, using the first pick on a left tackle may not come about. If that is the case, then Kansas City may look to the defensive line at the top of the draft. Playing a 3-4, and with a pair of outside pass rushers already in the fold with Tambi Hali and Justin Houston, the pick could either be Star Lotuleili or Sharrif Floyd for the defensive tackle slot, orDee Milliner at cornerback. If he checks out physically, I'm going to say that the Chiefs would take Lotuleili. He is a massive tackle who will plug up the middle in the run game, but he is also athletic, strong and quick enough to get through the line and pressure the quarterback. But however the Chiefs decide to go with the first pick, the last week has gone a long way towards driving draftniks crazy trying to figure out who is going where in the 2013 NFL Draft. Thanks, Kansas City. You have made my draft blog life that much more interesting.