Mock Draft Mode

The TMG Draft Zone had to take a break as I have been in the process of moving, and finding the time to write has been a bit on the difficult side lately. But now that I have just about everything in place once again, and with a week before the Super Bowl, it is just about time to get back into Mock Draft Mode here in the Draft Zone. As you all know, I do not put out my first mock draft until after the Super Bowl. I believe in getting the draft order set (unless there is a coin flip to determine a spot in the order) before trying to figure out who will be going where come draft time. But publishing mock drafts is now a year round business, and they have been coming fast and furious lately. The latest one I read has caused me to want to reveal who is going to be at the top of my first mock draft, and he will be at the top of all the mocks I put forth unless the Houston Texans go out and pick up a quarterback somewhere. I have seen Johnny Manziel listed at #1, along with Jadaveon Clowney, and just today I looked at a mock draft that had Blake Bortles going first overall. Houston needs a quarterback, and I will put Teddy Bridgewater in the top spot until the Texans make a deal to get a new signal caller in this off season, if they do at all. I have lived in the Louisville area the last 6 years, but that is not the reason I am putting Bridgewater at the top. He is by far the most pro ready quarterback with the fewest question marks going in to the draft, and he will be the best of the group down the road. I listened to a number of Louisville games on the radio, and I cannot tell you the number of times I heard the announcers complain that the Cardinals were running a boring offense. It was the type of offense where the quarterback took snaps from under center, handed the ball off to the running backs, ran play action passes, passed the ball from the pocket, where he used his mobility to makes plays outside the pocket in space to find an open receiver, and could run for first downs when no one was open. Does this sound familiar? It should. It is called a PRO OFFENSE. Bridgewater is not going to need to be schooled in how the pros run their offenses when he gets to the NFL. He has been running that system already. His accuracy from the pocket and on the move is tremendous. Can he make plays in the open field? Take a look at the last two plays against Cincinnati this year. He scrambled out and got a first down running backwards, then threw a touchdown pass from more than 30 yards as he was being pulled down to the ground to win the game. Some will say he played against inferior competition in conference play? Take a look at what he did against Florida in the Sugar Bowl and Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Others will point out that he is slight of frame. I'm sure that he is already on a training regiment that will get him more muscle, and no one should question his toughness after playing with a broken wrist in 2012 to clinch the Big East title and a BCS Bowl bid. But what I am looking to see out of Bridgewater at the NFL Scouting Combine is what he scores on the Wonderlic test. People I have talked to in Louisville who know Bridgewater say that he is one of the smartest, most intelligent people they have met. He graduated in 2 1/2 years while playing football, and his athletic ability on the field might even be surpassed by his intelligence level off the gridiron. There have been a number of quarterbacks taken high in the draft who failed miserably in the NFL, and too many of them did not have the prowess above the neck to match what they had below it. I'll be putting out my first mock draft next week, and you will see Teddy Bridgewater at the top. And unless the Houston Texans make a bold move to trade out of the top spot of go out and get another quarterback, you will be seeing Teddy at the top until the 2014 NFL Draft commences in May.

The Big Question Going Forward

Looking at the top of the 2014 NFL Draft, there is already a consensus of opinion forming in the draftnik ranks. It has the Houston Texans selecting Teddy Bridgewater 1st Overall, and the St. Louis Rams beefing up their offensive line with Jake Matthews going second. Houston needs a quarterback, and I'm sure that there will be a lot of jockeying for the 2nd pick from other teams in need. The Rams have Sam Bradford at quarterback, and they believe as I do that he can be the franchise signal caller they envisioned him to be with the first pick of the 2010 NFL Draft. They also have a pair of outstanding pass rushers in Chris Long and Robert Quinn, so even though a pick of Jadaveon Clowney added to the defense could happen at #2, I believe it will be another team making that pick with a trade. But if the Bridgewater/Matthews scenario holds, and you are the Jacksonville Jaguars, what move do you make? I brought up this in my previous blog, and if it comes to play it will be discussed for a long, long time. The Jaguars need a quarterback, but they have needed a pass rush for what seems like forever. Jacksonville was last in the NFL in sacks in 2013, and getting to the quarterback is just as important in the NFL today as having a franchise quarterback. Al Davis put it best when he once said 'The other team's quarterback must go down, and he must go down hard.' Many mock drafts are already slotting Blake Bortles from nearby Central Florida to the Jaguars. And the pick makes a lot of sense. But keep in mind that the Head Coach of Jacksonville is Gus Bradley, and he cut his NFL teeth building a nasty defense in Seattle, all the while being led on offense at quarterback by first Matt Hassleback, a veteran nearing the end of his days as a starter, then by Russell Wilson, a special talent but one that was a third round draft pick. I wonder if Bradley believes that he can catch the Wilson lightning in a bottle again. But I can see Bradley looking to piece together a defense along the lines of the one he coached in Seattle. To do so, he will need to beef up the pass rush, and I cannot see Jacksonville passing on Clowney if he is still available. The Jaguars have Chad Henne right now, and though no one is going to consider him a franchise quarterback, he did lead Jacksonville to four wins in the second half of the season, and he can steer the ship until a quarterback such as Zach Mettenberger or Tajh Boyd is ready to take the reins. This is going to be The Big Question Going Forward: Do you go for the sexy pick of quarterback at the top of the draft, or do you go for the smart pick? One thing that the history of the NFL Draft has shown us is that there is no such thing as a sure thing, but it has also shown us that the smartest drafters always benefit the most in the long run. Jacksonville was smart in 2013 with a draft that brought in Luke Joeckel, Jonathon Cyprien, Ace Sanders, and Dwayne Gratz. They would be smart again to keep building on the 2013 finish by adding Jadaveon Clowney if he is there at #3 and then to add a quarterback they can build on in Round 2.

The Year of The Pretty Boys

It's getting to be that time of year. It's NFL Draft Season, and the TMG Draft Zone is back. If the 2013 NFL Draft was known for not having a sure fire star at the top, the 2014 Draft will be known for possibly having too many big names to choose from. Who will be going where, and who will be drafting them, will be discussed at length for the next 4 months. The 2013 NFL Draft will be known as The Year of The Big Uglies. The top seven selections were offensive or defensive lineman. The first skill player chosen was Tavon Austin by the St. Louis Rams, who engineered a trade with Buffalo to move up eight slots and take the dynamic playmaker. The New York Jets followed with cornerback Dee Milliner, then 4 of the next 5 players selected were lineman. Only one quarterback was selected in the first round, with Buffalo taking E.J. Manuel in the 16th slot with the pick they acquired from the Rams in the Austin trade. No running backs went in Round 1, though Giovanni Bernard and Eddie Lacy had big impacts for Cincinnati and Green Bay after going in Round 2. The 2014 NFL Draft will see no such dispersal of position players. It will be The Year of The Pretty Boys. The Quarterback Draft. I caught some grief for making a bold prediction last year that 5 quarterbacks would go in Round 1 of the draft, as the yearly Panic In The Draft Room would set in. Although only one was taken, 6 rookie quarterbacks wound up starting a game in 2013, so I do feel some vindication with my prediction. There was panic, it just waited to hit in season. This year the Panic In The Draft Room will hit long before draft night. It will hit a team hard and they are going to make a bold move up the boards to get the player they want. But this year, the teams that are truly in need of a quarterback are already at the top of the draft. It is going to come down to who REALLY WANTS their man. The quarterbacks in the 2014 NFL Draft are going to command much of the attention this year, and rightfully so. The top three at this time are Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Johnny Manziel. Bortles has the NFL prototype size and arm strentgh, Manziel can make plays all over the field, and Bridgewater combines the best of what NFL teams are looking for: accuracy, intelligence, leadership. It will not be a bold prediction to say that these three players will go in the top 5, and it would not be one either to add Derek Carr into the top 5 as well. The younger brother of former 1st Overall Pick David Carr matches up well with Bortles physically and many see him as having the best upside of all the top prospects. As good as these four players are looking right now, take a look at what you might call Tier 2 of the quarterbacks. A.J. McCarron, who won two national titles at Alabama. Tajh Boyd, who led Clemson to a Top 10 season and an Orange Bowl win. Zach Mettenberger and Aaron Murray are coming off of knee injuries, but both were considered Heisman candidates at the start of the season. both should be ready to go by the start of training camps. I have long said that teams picking at the top of the draft have just as important of a selection at the start of Round 2. There are first round talents there, and making the right choice can prove to be just as much of a windfall as the player taken in Round 1. Jacksonville did well in selecting Jonathon Cyprien, and Philadelphia got a steal at tight end with Zack Ertz. I wonder how many teams are going to look at the quarterbacks in the 2014 Draft, see a player who fits their needs and they can get in Round 2, and then take the player who is going to have the biggest impact right away in Round 1. Quarterbacks are going to rule the day in May, but if need a pass rusher or offensive line help as well as a quarterback, I wonder how many teams are going to make the bold move and take Jadaveon Clowney or Jake Matthews and then roll the dice on a quarterback later on in the draft. But in the NFL, you must have the right man at the quarterback position. So the Pretty Boys are going to fly off the draft board like never before. Can you imagine a talent like Clowney falling to Atlanta at #6, and then adding him to a team that fell hard last year due mostly to injuries on both sides of the ball but is just one year removed for the NFC Championship game? The Falcons can sit and wait, and like everyone else they are going to have four months to think it over.