The 2011 NFL Draft has come to an end. Instead of heading to team facilities, the new draft picks are on hold, as are the veterans of every club. The lockout has been re-instated. For now. Which means that only the first round picks who were able to make it to their new clubs' offices were able to obtain playbooks. How crazy is it that A.J. Green has a playbook to study, but his new quarterback with the Bengals, Andy Dalton, does not. Perhaps they can share. I have no idea.
But what I do know is that this madness needs to end. From a fan's point of view, you have billionaire owners and millionaire players fighting over the crumbs of the pie. I know it is more complex than that. It just doesn't seem that way to fans who shell out their hard earned money and, perhaps more importantly, their loyalty.
So the action of the NFL now heads back to the courts. Draft picks will wait to workout and get signed. Free agents will wait to negotiate with teams before they can sign. Undrafted free agents will wait, and wait, and wait. I cannot picture a fall without NFL football. If the clubs and players have to revert to 2010 rules then so be it. Let's get back to work. The fans at the draft chanted at Commissioner Goddell 'We Want Football!' The commish replied 'So Do I.' OK, then. Prove it. End the lockout. Sign a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. And let's get back to football.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Friday, April 29, 2011
Day 2 In The Books
Day 2 of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books, and winners and losers are starting to surface among the teams. Some have been doing this for a long time. Some are getting better. Some have me scratching my head.
The New England Patriots always seem to own the draft. They have been accumulating top picks the last few years, and 2011 is no different. Even looking to next year, the Patriots have already picked up an additional first and second round pick. But for 2011, they have selected a left tackle in Nate Solder to pair with Sebastian Vollmer that could be called, with acknowledgements to Tom Clancy's Hunt For Red October, Thor's Twins. Both are 6'8, young and very athletic. Tom Brady is going to be well protected for a long time, and they even got his future replacement in Ryan Mallett, who fell all the way to Round 3. New England picked up a pair of running backs to fill a need in Round 2, but the pick who could turn out to be the most valuable might be Ras-I Dowling, a cornerback from Virginia. He has ideal size and speed to play corner in the NFL, but has battled injuries in college and could use some seasoning in the pros. But if he develops, New England will have a pair of top flight corners in Dowling and Devin McCourtey for years to come.
The New Orleans Saints for two elite players in Round 1, selecting Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram. But the third round brought two more impact players in Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick. Wilson may be a bit raw, but he is a talented, gifted linebacker and Patrick looks to be a solid cover corner who also plays the run very well. The Saints got an infusion of talent at the running back position, where they had injuries all of 2010, and in all three facets of the defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals had an excellent draft in 2010, and this year has gotten off to a good start. A.J. Green was a near unanimous choice as the best offensive player in the draft, and with Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco Johnson most likely not returning he fills a glaring need. Carson Palmer doesn't look to be returning either, and the Bengals picked up Andy Dalton with the third pick of Round 2. Many draftniks had Dalton moving up into the first round, and Cincinnati was able to select him without having to trade up and relinquishing any of their other picks. Jay Gruden is going to install the West Coast system, and they will need a mobile, accurate quarterback to run the offense. Dalton is that, and he is a leader and a winner. Even if Palmer returns to Cincy, I can see Dalton taking over the starting spot during the season. Then the Bengals addressed the defensive side by taking Dontay Moch in Round 3. Moch is a disruptive force, who spends a lot of time in the opponents backfield. The Bengals could use Moch as a backup to Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga on the outside, and could line the three of them up together with Rodderick Muckleroy in some 3-4 schemes.
The Detroit Lions got perhaps the biggest steal of the draft when Nick Fairley fell all the way to #13, then they got two more solid picks in Round 2. Titus Young is the speed receiver to compliment Calvin Johnson, and Mikel Leshoure is the between the tackles workhorse to compliment Jahvid Best. The Lions need to keep Matthew Stafford healthy, and if they can address that need in Day 3 they will easily be one of the biggest winners of the draft.
The Houston Texans needed help on defense. A lot of help. And they got it and then some. J.J. Watt is the ideal 3-4 end, and in Round 2 they got an outside linebacker in Brooks Reed who can rush the passer. But one of the biggest steals of the draft has to be Brandon Harris going to Houston in Round 3. He may lack the ideal size, but Harris has speed and plays more physical than his stature might indicate. Harris was a popular late first round selection of many mock drafts, and I had him going #32 to Green Bay. He can pair up with Kareem Jackson to solidify the Texans pass coverage.
Then there is the Minnesota Vikings. They went into the draft needing a quarterback. And they got one. A lot higher than everyone thought Christian Ponder would be taken in the draft. Ponder is a good fit for the Vikings West Coast offense, but he may have to play right away unless Minnesota can acquire a veteran to hold the fort until he is ready. They also need to shore up the middle of the defensive line, add a receiver with Sidney Rice being a free agent and Percy Harvin with migraine issues, and the secondary needs help as well. So with their second round pick, the Vikings select...Kyle Rudolph. While Rudolph has the skills to be a top tight end in the NFL, and the Vikings could use some youth at the position, Minnesota could have also drafted Rahim Moore, Marcus Gilchrist, Marvin Austin, or Greg Little. I believe that any of these players may make a more immediate impact with the Vikings. But if you look at the players Minnesota could have had, Nick Fairley and Ryan Mallett were available and if they Vikings had picked those two, I don't see anyone looking at their draft and wondering what they were doing.
Day 3 of the 2011 NFL Draft is tomorrow. What surprises await teams, players and fans alike? We shall see.
The New England Patriots always seem to own the draft. They have been accumulating top picks the last few years, and 2011 is no different. Even looking to next year, the Patriots have already picked up an additional first and second round pick. But for 2011, they have selected a left tackle in Nate Solder to pair with Sebastian Vollmer that could be called, with acknowledgements to Tom Clancy's Hunt For Red October, Thor's Twins. Both are 6'8, young and very athletic. Tom Brady is going to be well protected for a long time, and they even got his future replacement in Ryan Mallett, who fell all the way to Round 3. New England picked up a pair of running backs to fill a need in Round 2, but the pick who could turn out to be the most valuable might be Ras-I Dowling, a cornerback from Virginia. He has ideal size and speed to play corner in the NFL, but has battled injuries in college and could use some seasoning in the pros. But if he develops, New England will have a pair of top flight corners in Dowling and Devin McCourtey for years to come.
The New Orleans Saints for two elite players in Round 1, selecting Cameron Jordan and Mark Ingram. But the third round brought two more impact players in Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick. Wilson may be a bit raw, but he is a talented, gifted linebacker and Patrick looks to be a solid cover corner who also plays the run very well. The Saints got an infusion of talent at the running back position, where they had injuries all of 2010, and in all three facets of the defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals had an excellent draft in 2010, and this year has gotten off to a good start. A.J. Green was a near unanimous choice as the best offensive player in the draft, and with Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco Johnson most likely not returning he fills a glaring need. Carson Palmer doesn't look to be returning either, and the Bengals picked up Andy Dalton with the third pick of Round 2. Many draftniks had Dalton moving up into the first round, and Cincinnati was able to select him without having to trade up and relinquishing any of their other picks. Jay Gruden is going to install the West Coast system, and they will need a mobile, accurate quarterback to run the offense. Dalton is that, and he is a leader and a winner. Even if Palmer returns to Cincy, I can see Dalton taking over the starting spot during the season. Then the Bengals addressed the defensive side by taking Dontay Moch in Round 3. Moch is a disruptive force, who spends a lot of time in the opponents backfield. The Bengals could use Moch as a backup to Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga on the outside, and could line the three of them up together with Rodderick Muckleroy in some 3-4 schemes.
The Detroit Lions got perhaps the biggest steal of the draft when Nick Fairley fell all the way to #13, then they got two more solid picks in Round 2. Titus Young is the speed receiver to compliment Calvin Johnson, and Mikel Leshoure is the between the tackles workhorse to compliment Jahvid Best. The Lions need to keep Matthew Stafford healthy, and if they can address that need in Day 3 they will easily be one of the biggest winners of the draft.
The Houston Texans needed help on defense. A lot of help. And they got it and then some. J.J. Watt is the ideal 3-4 end, and in Round 2 they got an outside linebacker in Brooks Reed who can rush the passer. But one of the biggest steals of the draft has to be Brandon Harris going to Houston in Round 3. He may lack the ideal size, but Harris has speed and plays more physical than his stature might indicate. Harris was a popular late first round selection of many mock drafts, and I had him going #32 to Green Bay. He can pair up with Kareem Jackson to solidify the Texans pass coverage.
Then there is the Minnesota Vikings. They went into the draft needing a quarterback. And they got one. A lot higher than everyone thought Christian Ponder would be taken in the draft. Ponder is a good fit for the Vikings West Coast offense, but he may have to play right away unless Minnesota can acquire a veteran to hold the fort until he is ready. They also need to shore up the middle of the defensive line, add a receiver with Sidney Rice being a free agent and Percy Harvin with migraine issues, and the secondary needs help as well. So with their second round pick, the Vikings select...Kyle Rudolph. While Rudolph has the skills to be a top tight end in the NFL, and the Vikings could use some youth at the position, Minnesota could have also drafted Rahim Moore, Marcus Gilchrist, Marvin Austin, or Greg Little. I believe that any of these players may make a more immediate impact with the Vikings. But if you look at the players Minnesota could have had, Nick Fairley and Ryan Mallett were available and if they Vikings had picked those two, I don't see anyone looking at their draft and wondering what they were doing.
Day 3 of the 2011 NFL Draft is tomorrow. What surprises await teams, players and fans alike? We shall see.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Picking My Jaw Up Off The Floor
The first round of the 2011 NFL Draft is in the books. All I can say is 'WOW.' As I posted previously, some teams had a bit of a panic attack and reached for quarterbacks. Cam Newton will most likely win more hearts and minds in Carolina than ballgames. Jake Locker has all the athletic ability in the world, and he is going to get thrown into the fire right away in Tennessee. Unless they go out and get a veteran quarterback when the lockout is officially lifted, Minnesota is going to have a competition for the starting spot between Joe Webb and Christian Ponder. Then there is Jacksonville. When I heard they had traded up to #10 with Washington, my first thought was 'they are going to get a premier pass rusher.' Instead, they drafted the backup to David Garrard with the selection of Blaine Gabbert.
Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.
Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.
If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.
The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.
As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!
Outside of the quarterbacks, the biggest reach seemed to be San Francisco selecting Aldon Smith at #7. Talented, yes. Could they have picked him later, most likely. Or they could have had J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, or Robert Quinn. Seattle's selection of James Carpenter at #25 was also a surprise, considering Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were also on the board.
Every year, there are players who fall through the first round, and this year is no exception. Detroit will be able to line up Nick Fairley next to Ndamukong Suh after selection the Auburn star at #13. Robert Quinn went next to St. Louis, and now coach Steve Spagnola has a pair of outside pass rushers in Quinn and Chris Long, which he had in New York with the Giants and Mike Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Speaking of the Giants, they got a gem when Prince Amukamara fell all the way to them at #19. And the strange draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers continues. He has gone from a potential first overall pick to out of Round 1 completely. If he is healthy, Bowers is going to have something to prove, and the team that selects him will be able to sit back and smile. It will be interesting to see who picks him on Day 2.
If you wonder why some teams keep winning every year, look at how they draft. Pittsburgh got a prototype 3-4 defensive end with Cameron Heyward, and Green Bay got even more protection for Derek Sherrod with the final pick of the first round. But the biggest impacts were made via the trade route by the top two teams in the NFC South. Atlanta may have mortgaged quite a bit of it's future by handing Cleveland three picks this season and two in 2012, but they got the player they wanted in Julio Jones. Matt Ryan now has Jones and Roddy White on the outside, Tony Gonzalez at tight end, and Michael Turner in the backfield. Their defense got lit up for 48 points in the playoffs by Green Bay. I imagine Falcon fans are hoping they can get a sleeper pick or two late in the draft to shore up the defense.
The New Orleans Saints got help on both sides of the ball. Cameron Jordan fell all the way to #24, and they traded up with New England to get Mark Ingram at #28. They gave up a second round pick in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012. But their road back to the playoffs is going to be smoother with Ingram taking some of the load off of Drew Brees and Jordan getting after the quarterback on defense.
As for my mock draft and DSA Rankings, it's how you look at success. Getting players in the right spot, or in the first round. My mock got 5 picks in the correct spot, and 27 out of 32 in the first round. The DSA's got 3 picks correct, and 29 out of 32 in the first round. I consider that a success. All I can is if anyone had James Carpenter going to Seattle at #25 and you got every pick right, you deserve the $10,000,000 prize from the Bud Light Best Round Ever contest. Have a cold one for me!
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
TMG Draft Zone Mock Draft--2011 Final
It's the day before the 2011 NFL Draft, and it's time to post my final mock draft for this year. I'm not a big fan of posting mock draft all the time and constantly making changes, but the uncertainty of the labor situation has dictated that this is going to be a different draft season. Looking back, I kept five players at the same spot I originally had them in February, and 28 of the original 32 picks I made are still in the first round. Changes, yes. But you need to shuffle the deck every now and then. So here is the final TMG DraftZone Mock Draft for 2011:
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Von Miller LB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Robert Quinn DE
7) San Francisco Patrick Peterson CB
8) Tennessee Nick Fairley DT
9) Dallas Tyron Smith OT
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Prince Amukamara CB
12) Minnesota Cameron Jordan DE
13) Detroit Anthony Castonzo OT
14) St. Louis Corey Liuget DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England J.J. Watt DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Mike Pouncey OG
20) Tampa Bay Da'Quan Bowers DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Gabe Carimi OT
23) Philadelphia Jimmy Smith CB
24) New Orleans Cameron Heyward DE
25) Seattle Jake Locker QB
26) Baltimore Aaron Williams CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Phil Taylor DT
29) Chicago Nate Solder OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Brandon Harris CB
I look forward to seeing how well my picks pan out on Thursday night. For all of you that have made your own mocks drafts I wish you well, my fellow draftniks. Let's get the NFL Draft started!
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Von Miller LB
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Robert Quinn DE
7) San Francisco Patrick Peterson CB
8) Tennessee Nick Fairley DT
9) Dallas Tyron Smith OT
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Prince Amukamara CB
12) Minnesota Cameron Jordan DE
13) Detroit Anthony Castonzo OT
14) St. Louis Corey Liuget DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Ryan Kerrigan DE
17) New England J.J. Watt DE
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Mike Pouncey OG
20) Tampa Bay Da'Quan Bowers DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Gabe Carimi OT
23) Philadelphia Jimmy Smith CB
24) New Orleans Cameron Heyward DE
25) Seattle Jake Locker QB
26) Baltimore Aaron Williams CB
27) Atlanta Kyle Rudolph TE
28) New England Phil Taylor DT
29) Chicago Nate Solder OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Brandon Harris CB
I look forward to seeing how well my picks pan out on Thursday night. For all of you that have made your own mocks drafts I wish you well, my fellow draftniks. Let's get the NFL Draft started!
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 6.0--2011 Final
It is two days until the 2011 NFL Draft, and today I am posting my final DSA Player Rankings for this year. It seems that the prospects at the top have pretty much been solidified in their draft slots, and that is due to the uncertainty of the lockout and labor negotiations. Teams still have not been able to sign free agents, even with the ruling that came down yesterday. So it looks like this is going to be the draft for needs, not just the draft for the best player available. So here is the final DSA Player Rankings for 2011:
DSA Rankings 6.0 4-28-11
1) Cam Newton 1.30
2) Marcel Dareus 1.90
3) Von Miller 3.60
4) A.J. Green 4.20
5) Blaine Gabbert 5.00
6) Patrick Peterson 6.40
7) Robert Quinn 7.00
8) Nick Fairley 7.40
9) Julio Jones 9.20
10) Tyron Smith 9.40
11) Prince Amukamara 12.20
12) Cameron Jordan 13.30
13) Aldon Smith 15.10
14) Corey Liuget 15.40
15) J.J, Watt 16.00
16) Ryan Kerrigan 16.70
17) Anthony Castanzo 17.10
18) Mike Pouncey 17.40
19) Da'Quan Bowers 18.20
20) Mark Ingram 21.00
21) Gabe Carimi 22.60
22) Jimmy Smith 24.50
23) Cameron Heyward 25.90
24) Derek Sherrod 26.60
25) Nate Solder 26.80
26) Muhammad Wilkerson 27.10
27) Akeem Ayers 28.30
28) Phil Taylor 28.50
29) Jake Locker 29.90
30) Danny Watkins 30.30
31) Adrian Clayborn 30.70
32) Aaron Williams 31.10
The biggest upward movers going into the final weeks of the draft has been Cameron Heyward, who moved up seven slots in the latest DSA's. Corey Liuget jumped up six positions, while Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan shot up five slots each. The players who travelled south the most were Adrian Clayborn, who for some reason dropped ten slots down to #31, and Da'Quan Bowers, who fell another eight spots to #19. Teams are getting nervous about Bowers and just how healthy his knee is, but Clayborn is a bit of a mystery. I believe he is more a victim of the numbers with a deep class at defensive end and could very well go in the mid-first round.
Looking back at the first DSA's I posted back in February compared to the final in late April, there are a number of players who saw their stock rise and fall in the eyes of draftniks during the past two months. Nick Fairley was a unanimous #1 Overall selection, then dropped to a near unanimous #8 pick for Tennessee. Akeem Ayers fell twelve spots to #27, and Adrian Clayborn went south thirteen positions to #31. Brandon Harris was #22 and Ryan Mallett was #23, and both are not anywhere near the top 32 in the final rankings.
Cam Newton started at #8, and moved all the way to the top before the draft. Corey Liuget shot up eleven slots to #14, and Mike Pouncey gained nine spots to #18. Muhammad Wilkerson and Danny Watkins both made the largest jump from outside the first 32 to the final, both moving up ten slots to #26 and #30, respectively.
But nothing compares to the draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers. I could do this for another hundred years and not see anything like it again. Bowers was second after the initial DSA Players Rankings, then moved up to the top spot for DSA 2.0. Then the NFL Scouting Combine came around. Bowers did not work out due to knee surgery. Then he had a poor showing at the Clemson Pro Day, mostly due to not being able to work out while rehabbing his knee. Then the rumors circulated. Out of shape. Knee not responding. Arthritic knee. And his stock began to drop. And drop. And drop. All the way to #19 of the final DSA Player Rankings. I'm hoping he proves all the naysayers wrong, is 100% healthy, and hits the field with a whole bags of chips on his shoulder. If that's the case, he will be the biggest bargain of the draft if he indeed falls to the mid-late first round. We will find out Thursday night and in the months ahead.
DSA Rankings 6.0 4-28-11
1) Cam Newton 1.30
2) Marcel Dareus 1.90
3) Von Miller 3.60
4) A.J. Green 4.20
5) Blaine Gabbert 5.00
6) Patrick Peterson 6.40
7) Robert Quinn 7.00
8) Nick Fairley 7.40
9) Julio Jones 9.20
10) Tyron Smith 9.40
11) Prince Amukamara 12.20
12) Cameron Jordan 13.30
13) Aldon Smith 15.10
14) Corey Liuget 15.40
15) J.J, Watt 16.00
16) Ryan Kerrigan 16.70
17) Anthony Castanzo 17.10
18) Mike Pouncey 17.40
19) Da'Quan Bowers 18.20
20) Mark Ingram 21.00
21) Gabe Carimi 22.60
22) Jimmy Smith 24.50
23) Cameron Heyward 25.90
24) Derek Sherrod 26.60
25) Nate Solder 26.80
26) Muhammad Wilkerson 27.10
27) Akeem Ayers 28.30
28) Phil Taylor 28.50
29) Jake Locker 29.90
30) Danny Watkins 30.30
31) Adrian Clayborn 30.70
32) Aaron Williams 31.10
The biggest upward movers going into the final weeks of the draft has been Cameron Heyward, who moved up seven slots in the latest DSA's. Corey Liuget jumped up six positions, while Tyron Smith and Cameron Jordan shot up five slots each. The players who travelled south the most were Adrian Clayborn, who for some reason dropped ten slots down to #31, and Da'Quan Bowers, who fell another eight spots to #19. Teams are getting nervous about Bowers and just how healthy his knee is, but Clayborn is a bit of a mystery. I believe he is more a victim of the numbers with a deep class at defensive end and could very well go in the mid-first round.
Looking back at the first DSA's I posted back in February compared to the final in late April, there are a number of players who saw their stock rise and fall in the eyes of draftniks during the past two months. Nick Fairley was a unanimous #1 Overall selection, then dropped to a near unanimous #8 pick for Tennessee. Akeem Ayers fell twelve spots to #27, and Adrian Clayborn went south thirteen positions to #31. Brandon Harris was #22 and Ryan Mallett was #23, and both are not anywhere near the top 32 in the final rankings.
Cam Newton started at #8, and moved all the way to the top before the draft. Corey Liuget shot up eleven slots to #14, and Mike Pouncey gained nine spots to #18. Muhammad Wilkerson and Danny Watkins both made the largest jump from outside the first 32 to the final, both moving up ten slots to #26 and #30, respectively.
But nothing compares to the draft odyssey of Da'Quan Bowers. I could do this for another hundred years and not see anything like it again. Bowers was second after the initial DSA Players Rankings, then moved up to the top spot for DSA 2.0. Then the NFL Scouting Combine came around. Bowers did not work out due to knee surgery. Then he had a poor showing at the Clemson Pro Day, mostly due to not being able to work out while rehabbing his knee. Then the rumors circulated. Out of shape. Knee not responding. Arthritic knee. And his stock began to drop. And drop. And drop. All the way to #19 of the final DSA Player Rankings. I'm hoping he proves all the naysayers wrong, is 100% healthy, and hits the field with a whole bags of chips on his shoulder. If that's the case, he will be the biggest bargain of the draft if he indeed falls to the mid-late first round. We will find out Thursday night and in the months ahead.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Filling Out The Depth Chart-Defense
Yesterday I posted a list of prospects that I believe will be solid pros in the NFL, but look to be taken after the first round of the upcoming. Today is for the defense. A number of these players have been placed in the first round of previous mock drafts, so there is talent and potential aplenty to go around. So here is my list of post-first round defensive prospects:
Defensive End: Allen Bailey
Defensive End: Sam Acho
Defensive Tackle: Drake Nevis
Defensive Tackle: Christian Ballard
Outside Linebacker: Bruce Carter
Outside Linebacker: Dontay Moch
Inside Linebacker: Colin McCarthy
Cornerback: Ras-I Dowling
Cornerback: Brandon Burton
Safety: Marcus Gilchrist
Safety: Quinton Carter
Bailey is a versatile lineman who can play inside or outside, and is seen as a better inside pass rusher. You are not going to find a better student-athlete than Acho, and his game on the field has drawn comparisons to fellow Longhorn Brian Orakpo. Nevis and Ballard both need to bulk up some to play in the middle but are athletic enough to play end as well. Carter is coming off of a knee injury late in 2010, but when healthy he showed good range against the run and pass. Moch has tremendous speed who is a disruptive force in the backfield. McCarthy can play inside and outside and has a nose for the football. Dowling has the size to cover bigger receivers and Burton has the speed to run with the fastest on the outside. Gilchrist and Carter are both physical presences in the secondary and should be instant contributors on special teams.
It is three days until the 2011 NFL Draft. The stars are at the top of everyone's draft boards, but it is the picks on days two and three that will determine whether a teams' draft is a success.
Defensive End: Allen Bailey
Defensive End: Sam Acho
Defensive Tackle: Drake Nevis
Defensive Tackle: Christian Ballard
Outside Linebacker: Bruce Carter
Outside Linebacker: Dontay Moch
Inside Linebacker: Colin McCarthy
Cornerback: Ras-I Dowling
Cornerback: Brandon Burton
Safety: Marcus Gilchrist
Safety: Quinton Carter
Bailey is a versatile lineman who can play inside or outside, and is seen as a better inside pass rusher. You are not going to find a better student-athlete than Acho, and his game on the field has drawn comparisons to fellow Longhorn Brian Orakpo. Nevis and Ballard both need to bulk up some to play in the middle but are athletic enough to play end as well. Carter is coming off of a knee injury late in 2010, but when healthy he showed good range against the run and pass. Moch has tremendous speed who is a disruptive force in the backfield. McCarthy can play inside and outside and has a nose for the football. Dowling has the size to cover bigger receivers and Burton has the speed to run with the fastest on the outside. Gilchrist and Carter are both physical presences in the secondary and should be instant contributors on special teams.
It is three days until the 2011 NFL Draft. The stars are at the top of everyone's draft boards, but it is the picks on days two and three that will determine whether a teams' draft is a success.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Filling Out The Depth Chart-Offense
With four days until the 2011 NFL Draft, everyone knows about the players who are going to be selected at the top of the draft. Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers and all the rest of the potential first rounders have been dissected more than a frog in a high school biology class. Although there isn't a Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh or Matthew Stafford at the top of the draft, there is more than enough depth to fill out the rosters of all 32 teams in the league.
Looking at the draft, I have targeted an offensive and defensive roster that I will be keeping an eye on to see where they are selected and what kind of an impact they make in 2011. Many have been listed as possible first rounders in a number of mock drafts, but for the most part these players look to go late second round, third or fourth round:
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Running Back: Daniel Thomas
Running Back: DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver: Leonard Hankerson
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb
Tight End: Luke Stocker
Offensive Tackle: James Brewer
Offensive Tackle: Orlando Franklin
Offensive Guard: Clint Boling
Offensive Guard: Rodeny Hudson
Center: Stefan Wisniewski
Kaepernick has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, played in a non-pro style offense in college as did Newton, and looks to go in Round 3 where Newton will be a top 5 pick or first overall. He has his detractors who say that his game will take time to develop in the NFL, but as a later round pick he has that luxury where Newton will not. Thomas is Mr. Inside who can pound the ball between the tackles and Murray is Mr. Outside who looks to contribute as a third down specialist.
Hankerson showed his size and pass catching abilities at the Senior Bowl, and I believe he could sneak up into the early second round. Cobb is the versatile playmaker who has played quarterback, wide receiver and running back. A team looking for their Offensive Weapon similar to Dexter McCluster will find a place for Cobb. Stocker is a big target at 6'6" with very good hands.
Brewer is a man mountain who looks to fit in at right tackle or possibly guard, and Franklin looks to play the right side as well. Hudson and Boling both could use a little more size and strength to play the interior but have the talent needed to play in the NFL. Wisniewski is the top rated center with a very high football IQ who can play guard or center, but who could also use a little more size at this time.
I'll post my Defensive Depth Chart tomorrow. The 2011 NFL Draft is four days away. I'm looking forward to seeing who will be going where and how they fit into their new teams' systems. That's what the NFL Draft is all about.
Looking at the draft, I have targeted an offensive and defensive roster that I will be keeping an eye on to see where they are selected and what kind of an impact they make in 2011. Many have been listed as possible first rounders in a number of mock drafts, but for the most part these players look to go late second round, third or fourth round:
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick
Running Back: Daniel Thomas
Running Back: DeMarco Murray
Wide Receiver: Leonard Hankerson
Wide Receiver: Randall Cobb
Tight End: Luke Stocker
Offensive Tackle: James Brewer
Offensive Tackle: Orlando Franklin
Offensive Guard: Clint Boling
Offensive Guard: Rodeny Hudson
Center: Stefan Wisniewski
Kaepernick has all the athletic ability of Cam Newton, played in a non-pro style offense in college as did Newton, and looks to go in Round 3 where Newton will be a top 5 pick or first overall. He has his detractors who say that his game will take time to develop in the NFL, but as a later round pick he has that luxury where Newton will not. Thomas is Mr. Inside who can pound the ball between the tackles and Murray is Mr. Outside who looks to contribute as a third down specialist.
Hankerson showed his size and pass catching abilities at the Senior Bowl, and I believe he could sneak up into the early second round. Cobb is the versatile playmaker who has played quarterback, wide receiver and running back. A team looking for their Offensive Weapon similar to Dexter McCluster will find a place for Cobb. Stocker is a big target at 6'6" with very good hands.
Brewer is a man mountain who looks to fit in at right tackle or possibly guard, and Franklin looks to play the right side as well. Hudson and Boling both could use a little more size and strength to play the interior but have the talent needed to play in the NFL. Wisniewski is the top rated center with a very high football IQ who can play guard or center, but who could also use a little more size at this time.
I'll post my Defensive Depth Chart tomorrow. The 2011 NFL Draft is four days away. I'm looking forward to seeing who will be going where and how they fit into their new teams' systems. That's what the NFL Draft is all about.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Draft Trade Regrets and the Binary Stars
I wonder how much regret the Carolina Panthers have now concerning the draft day trade they made with New England last season. You know they would not admit to it, but there has to be some in there somewhere.
Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.
Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.
We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.
In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.
Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.
Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.
The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.
If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.
Last year, Carolina traded a 2011 second round pick with the Patriots for a third round selection. With that pick, the Panthers took Armanti Edwards. I still scratch my head as the the why this pick occurred. Carolina already had Matt Moore at quarterback, and had just drafted Jimmy Clausen. The next day, they picked Tony Pike, the quarterback from Cincinnati. Did they plan to involve Edwards in a wildcat system, or perhaps move him to another position? They did play him at receiver, but he recorded zero catches and was listed as the third quarterback after Moore's season came to an early end. It seems to me that Carlina could have used the selection on an actual receiver such as Mardy Gilyard or Mike Williams, or a tight end, as Tony Moeaki and Jimmy Graham went five and seven picks after Edwards, respectively.
Now it appears the Panthers are going to use the #1 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft on Cam Newton. There has even been talk that they could take A.J. Green, the wide receiver from Georgia. In either case, where does Edwards fit in the long term plans for Carolina? I'm sure they have something in mind, and I can't wait to see it. I've pretty much scratched my scalp away.
We'll never know if another player taken in place of Edwards would have improved the fortunes of Carolina, and the result of the trade is that this year they will not have the first pick of the second round to pair up with their #1 and use the tandem to rebuild the franchise. Since 2003, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that teams selecting in the top 3 of both the first and second rounds can get a pair of stars and use them as building blocks for the future. I call them the Binary Stars.
In 2010, St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall, then got Rodger Saffold at the top of Round 2. Saffold started all 16 games at left tackle and looks to be a fixture there for a long time. The two seasons previous, the Rams selected Jason Smith and James Laurinatis in 2009 along with Chris Long and Donnie Avery in 2008. You have a quarterback, speed receiver, two bookend tackles, a pass rushing end and the leader of the defense at middle linebacker. The Rams were one game away from the playoffs in 2010, and look to be a force in the NFC West for years to come.
Detroit has also use the binary star system to their advantage the last two seasons. The 2010 NFL Draft brought Ndamukong Suh at #2 overall, then they traded up four spots to select Jahvid Best. In 2009, the Lions got the hat trick by picking Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew and Louis Delmas. Injuries have limited the effectiveness of Stafford, Pettigrew and Best, but when they have been on the field they have shown Lions fans that there is plenty of hope for the future. The only pick I have had some disagreement on was taking Pettigrew instead of Michael Oher. You have to protect your franchise quarterback, and Oher has been very good with Baltimore, but Pettigrew has only gotten better and should see plenty of openings on the field as long as teams are focusing on Calvin Johnson.
Atlanta struck gold with their binary stars in 2008 with the selection of Matt Ryan at #3 overall, then trading up to take Sam Baker to play left tackle. The New York Giants did as well in 2004, acquiring Eli Manning then picking Chris Snee in Round 2. What is really interesting is that the Giants traded Phillip Rivers for a number of picks for Manning, and many saw the pick of Snee as paternal more than anything because the Boston College guard was engaged to coach Tom Coughlin's daughter. A Super Bowl win over the undefeated New England Patriots and a number of Pro Bowl appearances later has vindicated the picks.
The Marvin Lewis era in Cincinnati began with the selection of quarterback Carson Palmer first overall in 2003, followed by taking Eric Steinbach at the top of Round 2. Palmer sat his rookie season, while Steinbach started from Day 1. In their third season, the Bengals won the AFC North, their first winning season in 15 years. Steinbach left after the 2006 season, signing a free agent contract with Cleveland, where he has been one of the best guards in the league. Palmer has taken a beating since Steinbach left. He led Cincinnati to another division title in 2009, but now he wants out of town and has threatened to retire. But in the time Palmer was passing behind the protection of Steinbach, he was one of the brightest stars in the league.
If Carolina still had the first pick of the second round, it would be interesting to see how their draft day strategy would play out. Would they still take a quarterback #1 overall and an offensive lineman to protect him in Round 2, or perhaps take Green, Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson first, then go for Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder with their next pick. We'll never know, because the New England Patriots have that pick, and the Carolnia Panthers are still working on where to play Armanti Edwards. Edwards still has a chance to be an impact player for the Panthers, but most likely not this year. We shall see.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Trench Warfare
It is a long held belief that games in the NFL are won and lost in the trenches. You can say what you want about quarterbacks, and don't get me wrong, it is the most important position in all of team sports, but the guys up front I call The Big Uglies are going to rule the 2011 NFL Draft.
Looking at the mock drafts I have been gathering information from for my DSA Player Rankings, there could very easily be up to 20 offensive and defensive lineman selected in the first round. The skill players get the press, but the coaches and general managers know what side their bread is buttered on. And it's never buttered when their own quarterback is on his backside and when the opponent's is not on his.
Protect the quarterback. You hear it all the time. You can't win if your quarterback is getting hit and does not have time to throw the ball. Offensive lineman, and particularly tackles, are always in high demand. All I've been hearing is how there isn't a franchise left tackle in the draft. There may not be, but there are six offensive lineman who appear to be solidly in the first round. Anthony Castonzo, Tyron Smith, Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, and Mike Pouncey look to be safe bets to have their names called on Day One. Danny Watkins is moving up a lot of draft boards and has an excellent chance to be a first rounder. Solder is the biggest project of the bunch but may have the most upside with his size and athletic ability. The others could start right away, and with the lockout still in effect teams will be drafting for need, they most likely will line up from the start.
The defensive line is as deep as it ever has been. The tackles that are almost certain to go in the first round include Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, and Corey Liuget, with Marvin Austin and Phil Taylor strong possibilities as well. As much as teams rely on the pass, if you can't stop the run you are in a world of trouble. All five tackles can clog up the middle, with Dareus and Fairley the best at putting pressure up the middle and getting to the quarterback.
The defensive ends are the reason the 2011 NFL Draft is as deep as it is. There are nine ends that teams are looking at to rush the quarterback and put him down. Da'Quan Bowers was long considered the best of the class until injury concerns started to creep up. Even so, he is still considered a top 25 pick, and it is possible that he will be the last of the nine selected. Robert Quinn, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers. Quarterbacks are going to be watching the draft and cringing with the thought that a division rival has taken a pass rusher and that he will have to face him twice a year. Now all the defensive lineman have to figure out is how to get by the offensive lineman selected in the first round as well. The chess match is about to begin. Chess played on a gridiron with The Big Uglies.
Looking at the mock drafts I have been gathering information from for my DSA Player Rankings, there could very easily be up to 20 offensive and defensive lineman selected in the first round. The skill players get the press, but the coaches and general managers know what side their bread is buttered on. And it's never buttered when their own quarterback is on his backside and when the opponent's is not on his.
Protect the quarterback. You hear it all the time. You can't win if your quarterback is getting hit and does not have time to throw the ball. Offensive lineman, and particularly tackles, are always in high demand. All I've been hearing is how there isn't a franchise left tackle in the draft. There may not be, but there are six offensive lineman who appear to be solidly in the first round. Anthony Castonzo, Tyron Smith, Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, and Mike Pouncey look to be safe bets to have their names called on Day One. Danny Watkins is moving up a lot of draft boards and has an excellent chance to be a first rounder. Solder is the biggest project of the bunch but may have the most upside with his size and athletic ability. The others could start right away, and with the lockout still in effect teams will be drafting for need, they most likely will line up from the start.
The defensive line is as deep as it ever has been. The tackles that are almost certain to go in the first round include Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, and Corey Liuget, with Marvin Austin and Phil Taylor strong possibilities as well. As much as teams rely on the pass, if you can't stop the run you are in a world of trouble. All five tackles can clog up the middle, with Dareus and Fairley the best at putting pressure up the middle and getting to the quarterback.
The defensive ends are the reason the 2011 NFL Draft is as deep as it is. There are nine ends that teams are looking at to rush the quarterback and put him down. Da'Quan Bowers was long considered the best of the class until injury concerns started to creep up. Even so, he is still considered a top 25 pick, and it is possible that he will be the last of the nine selected. Robert Quinn, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers. Quarterbacks are going to be watching the draft and cringing with the thought that a division rival has taken a pass rusher and that he will have to face him twice a year. Now all the defensive lineman have to figure out is how to get by the offensive lineman selected in the first round as well. The chess match is about to begin. Chess played on a gridiron with The Big Uglies.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Draft Day Trade Scenarios
Every year, the one thing that stirs up mock drafts of everyone who puts prospects to teams are draft day trade. But in 2011, with the uncertainty hanging over the game due to the lockout, trades may be few and far between.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
If the lockout is still in effect when the draft opens, teams can swap picks but not players. But when you look at past draft trades, most of them involve only picks. And after looking at the teams that may be looking to move up or down, I have come up with some scenarios that could be very interesting:
Seattle trading out of the #25 spot.
This possibility has been bandied about or a week or so now. I have the Seahawks selecting Jake Locker at #25, and if he is available, one way or another, he is going at that spot. Matt Hasslebeck is a free agent with his best years behind him, and Charlie Whitehurst is still an unproven commodity. But he was also a costly one. Seattle dealt a number of picks to San Diego for Whitehurst, and I believe Pete Carroll is going to give him the chance to lead the team in 2011. But Locker would be a valuable insurance policy, and the hometown quarterback would be very popular. Perhaps too popular. If Whitehurst is not up to the pressure of starting in the NFL and dealing with Locker as his backup with fans screaming to get him in the game, the trade to get Whitehurst would be seen as a failure.
So Seattle may be looking to trade down, and I don't believe there will be a shortage of suitors if Locker is available. I'm sure Minnesota would love to move up, but I don't see being able to package together enough picks for Seattle to bite. Minnesota does not select again until #43, then again at #106. Any trade with the Vikings would involve future picks, but Seattle would most likely want a pick early in Round 2. If that is the case, look for Buffalo or Cincinnati to make a deal. Two other possibilities are Arizona and San Francisco, but that is not likely since Seattle would not have anything to do with trading inside the division.
St. Louis trading with Dallas to get the #9 selection
I have a sneaking feeling on this. St. Louis needs an offensive playmaker, and it is not likely that Julio Jones will not be there at #14. Washington has been looking at Jones as well for the same reasons, and Dallas would make an excellent trading partner with the Rams. It moves them up to the spot before Washington, and Dallas could still get the player they need at #14. Their needs are offensive tackle and pass rushing end. I have them selecting Tyron Smith at #9, and it is possible he would be there at #14. If not, Anthony Castanzo might be there as well, and Gabe Carimi will most likely be available. If they look to a defensive end, J.J. Watt, Aldon Smith and Cameron Jordan should still be on the board. St. Louis selects at #47 in Round 2, and if the Cowboys could get that pick as well, it would give them three of the first 47 picks in a very deep draft, and the chance to fill in hole son both side of the ball in a hurry.
New England trading UP in Round 1
The Patriots are the masters of the draft day trade. Because of this, they have 2 picks in each of the first three rounds. But the Pats are not getting any younger, loading up on middle round picks has not helped them win a playoff game since their undefeated run to the Super Bowl in 2007. I see New England holding onto the #17 pick, but they could put together a package of picks that could very easily move them up to the top 10. How highly does Bill Bellichick value Nick Fairley to play in his 3-4, or what about pairing up Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with Devin McCourty in the secondary? What about giving Tom Brady a top target along the lines of Julio Jones or even A.J. Green? If Von Miller or Robert Quinn are available, would the Pats make the deal to get one of the prized 3-4 pass rushers of the 2011 NFL Draft? If they do, don't be surprised. No one works the draft better, and any deal the Patriots make will be to their advantage. Nine days until the draft. I can't wait.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Franchising in the 2nd Round
Going into the NFL Draft, teams that don't already their franchise quarterback are on the lookout for one. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and is also the face of the franchise. Selecting the right player can put a franchise on the path to greatness. The wrong pick can set a team back for years.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.
There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.
Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.
The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.
The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 5.0
The 2011 NFL Draft is now two weeks away. Mock drafts are coming fast and furious. And this is the point of the process where the draftniks need to be seen, and the best way is to make the shocking pick. Last year, it was Tim Tebow. Just about everyone had Tebow going in round 2 or later, then the Florida quarterback started creeping up the mock draft boards. Tebow had his highest mock draft slot at #9 to Buffalo, and eventually he went to Denver at #25.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
This year, with the lockout preventing the onset of free agency, teams will not be able to fill needs with free agents and then select the best player available. The draft is going to be the need filler this year, and it will be tough to envision a shocking draft pick. Perhaps Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker could move into the Top 10, going to San Francisco or Tennessee, or even Julio Jones going as high as #4 to Cincinnati if A.J. Green is no longer available. But the player I see moving up mock draft boards in the next two weeks is Marvin Austin, the defensive tackle from North Carolina.
Austin had to sit out the 2010 season because of NCAA violations. But he had a good workout at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his pro day workout was even better. There are questions about his motor at times, but the ability is there, and he could very easily move into Round 1. Another issue that has dogged Austin was that he didn't play last year, but that has not hampered his college teammate, Robert Quinn, and it will be interesting to see how high he rises on mock drafts in the next two weeks. For now, Austin is not on the Top 32 in the latest DSA Player Rankings, but when the final list is published before the draft, I would not be surprised to see his name moving up. So here are the DSA Player Rankings 5.0 for the 2011 NFL Draft:
DSA Rankings 5.0 Plus/
4-14-11 Minus
1) Cam Newton +1
2) Marcel Dareus -1
3) Von Miller +2
4) A.J. Green +2
5) Blaine Gabbert -2
6) Patrick Peterson -2
7) Nick Fairley 0
8) Robert Quinn +3
9) Julio Jones +1
10) Prince Amukamara -2
11) Da'Quan Bowers -2
12) J.J, Watt 0
13) Anthony Castanzo +5
14) Aldon Smith +1
15) Tyron Smith -1
16) Ryan Kerrigan +1
17) Cameron Jordan -1
18) Mike Pouncey +1
19) Mark Ingram -6
20) Corey Liuget +5
21) Adrian Clayborn -1
22) Jimmy Smith +5
23) Nate Solder -1
24) Gabe Carimi -1
25) Akeem Ayers +4
26) Muhammad Wilkerson +5
27) Derek Sherrod -1
28) Justin Houston -4
29) Phil Taylor +3
30) Cameron Heyward -2
31) Jake Locker -10
32) Brandon Harris +2
The biggest movers up the DSA Player Rankings have been Anthony Castanzo, Muhammad Wilkerson, Coery Liuget, and Jimmy Smith. All four players moved up 5 spots each. But the biggest mover of all was Jake Locker, who fell 10 spots from #21 to #31. Btu I can see one of two scenarios on the opening day of the draft concerning Locker: he is going to go in the top 15, or a team will trade up to the end of the round and select the athletic signal caller. Many see Seattle as a team that would take Locker with the 25th pick, but Pete Carroll didn't trade away pick for Charlie Whitehurst for nothing. New England has a history of trading picks, and with the 33rd selection as well, the Patriots could be a trading partner. But Seattle could get a very nice package of picks at #25 if someone is high enough on Locker. The 2011 NFL Draft is in two weeks. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out in prime time at Radio City Music Hall.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Settling at the top
Trying to prognosticate the 2011 NFL Draft is like tossing a balloon into a tornado and trying to figure out where it's going to land. You can make a good guess, but that's about all it is. A guess. But by looking at the mock drafts that have been coming out lately, you can see quite a bit of settlement at the top of the draft.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Carolina seems to be sold on Cam Newton. His ability appears to be limitless, and his charisma will do just as much to revitalize the franchise. I have put Newton at the top of my mock draft, and I will be keeping him there.
It appears that Denver has their eyes on Marcell Dareus, the defensive tackle from Alabama. John Fox is a defensive minded coach, and he knows that to rebuild a defense you have to do it from the inside out. Dareus will be the building block he needs, and the return of Elvis Dumervil gives him a first rate pass rusher who will only be helped by the presence of Dareus.
At #4, Cincinnati has been looking at A.J. Green to rebuild their passing attack. The status of Carson Palmer is still up in the air, but is the Bengals take the talented receiver it may be what Palmer is looking for in an offensive upgrade to keep him around at least one more season. If Palmer decides to carry out with his threat to retire, look for the Bengals to make a serious move to get Kevin Kolb once the lockout is over.
Buffalo and Arizona seem to be joined at the hip at the top of the first round. The two choices that are bandied about the most are Von Miller and Blaine Gabbert. If the Bills are sold on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, look for them to take Miller. This leaves the Cardinals to select Gabbert, and the happiest person with that pick would be Larry Fitzgerald. If Buffalo takes Gabbert, and if Cam Newton is already gone as well, Arizona will be looking at Miller. For me, Buffalo is convinced that Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, so I look for them to select Miller, with Gabbert going #5 to the Cardinals.
Picks 6 to 10 seems to be as set as they have been at any time during the draft process. Cleveland looks to be choosing between Robert Quinn and Patrick Peterson. I see Mike Holmgren taking the best player in the draft and pairing up Peterson with Joe Haden to form one of the best shutdown corner pairings in the league. Quinn would then go to San Francisco, and give the 49ers perhaps the most athletic pass rusher in the draft. If the Browns select Quinn, I can see San Francisco handing the card with Peterson's name on it before Quinn is off the stage.
Picks 8, 9, and 10 also seems to be falling into place. Look for Nick Fairley to go to Tennessee at #8, Tyron Smith to Dallas at #9, and Julio Jones to Washington at #10. The Titans get the defensive tackle that was once seen as a unanimous first overall selection, the Cowboys get their offensive line anchor, and the Redskins get the offensive playmaker they need.
It will be interesting to see how the draft winds blow in the next three weeks. Player stocks rise and fall very quickly, and in 2011, if something looks to be a certainty, just wait a minute and you are likely to find your mock draft looking like a math test you didn't study for with crossed out names all over the board.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
DSA Player Rankings 4.0
It's amazing how players can fall into and out of favor the closer the NFL Draft approaches. This year, the big mover up has been Marcell Dareus, and the faller has been Da'Quan Bowers. A month ago, Dareus was ranked 7th in the DSAs, with an average score of 6.00. In that same rankings, Bowers was 1st with an average of 1.70. Oh, how things have changed. Dareus is now #1, and Bowers has fallen all the way to 9th. And if questions concerning his knee are not answered soon, he is likely to fall even more.
Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.
I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011
Rank Player Average Plus/Minus
1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)
Von Miller and J.J. Watt have also moved up in the latest rankings, both climbing three spots. Miller is now 5th, and many are seeing him as one of the safest picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, along with Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green. Watt has been the workout wonder this offseason, but his play on the field has matched his performance in front of the scouts. He is now 12th, and could very easily move into the top 10 in the nest three weeks.
I have only listed players that have scored a first round grade, with an average of 32 or better. So far, I have tracked 56 players that someone has placed in a mock draft. Teams are going to be selecting players in the second and third round that a draftnik somewhere has seen as a first round pick. As I have stated before, it is going to take a serious screw-up for a team to be seen as a loser in the early rounds of the 2011 NFL Draft.
DSA Players Rankings 4.0 04-05-2011
Rank Player Average Plus/Minus
1) Marcel Dareus 2.70 3
2) Cam Newton 3.70 (1)
3) Blaine Gabbert 3.80 0
4) Patrick Peterson 3.90 2
5) Von Miller 4.80 3
6) A.J. Green 4.90 (1)
7) Nick Fairley 7.60 0
8) Prince Amukamara 7.80 1
9) Da'Quan Bowers 8.20 (7)
10) Julio Jones 10.20 1
11) Robert Quinn 11.90 (1)
12) J.J, Watt 13.40 3
13) Mark Ingram 15.40 0
14) Tyron Smith 15.70 0
15) Aldon Smith 16.80 1
16) Cameron Jordan 16.80 (4)
17) Ryan Kerrigan 17.50 0
18) Anthony Castanzo 17.90 1
19) Mike Pouncey 21.80 4
20) Adrian Clayborn 22.00 1
21) Jake Locker 22.90 5
22) Nate Solder 23.40 (4)
23) Gabe Carimi 23.70 (3)
24) Justin Houston 26.60 0
25) Corey Liuget 27.40 0
26) Derek Sherrod 27.60 1
27) Jimmy Smith 28.80 (5)
28) Cameron Heyward 29.30 4
29) Akeem Ayers 29.40 (1)
30) Aaron Williams 30.20 6
31) Muhammad Wilkerson 30.30 (2)
32) Phil Taylor 30.80 1
33) Stephen Paea 31.50 1
34) Brandon Harris 32.70 (4)
Sunday, April 3, 2011
TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
I've been away for a while. Spring is here, work needs to be done and baseball is going full speed ahead. But I've been working on the next DSA Player Rankings for the 2011 NFL Draft, and I have also come out with my second mock draft. I know, I know. I said last year that you should make your picks and stick with them. But the research I've been putting into the draft this year has allowed me to come to the conclusion that because the draft is so deep, that teams have 5-10 players at the top of their boards.
In 2010, there were basically three players seen as having the potential to go #1 overall in the draft. They were Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy. Of all the mock drafts I accumulated leading up to the draft, they were the only 3 players that the draftniks had slotted at the top. This year, I have seen 7 players at the top of the mocks. And the player many see as the top prospect, Patrick Peterson, has not been placed at #1 overall. At least none that I have found.
So here is the TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, and I because of all the uncertainty, I will make one more mock draft the afternoon of Round 1. By then one might think the draft order would be a bit more settled. But you never know.
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Nick Fairley DT
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Patrick Peterson CB
7) San Francisco Prince Amukamara CB
8) Tennessee Von Miller LB
9) Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota Jake Locker QB
13) Detroit Tyron Smith OT
14) St. Louis J.J. Watt DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Cameron Jordan DE
17) New England Mike Pouncey OG
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Ryan Kerrigan DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Nate Solder OT
23) Philadelphia Brandon Harris CB
24) New Orleans Stephen Paea DT
25) Seattle Adrian Clayborn DE
26) Baltimore Cameron Heyward DE
27) Atlanta Torrey Smith WR
28) New England Corey Liuget DT
29) Chicago Gabe Carimi OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Martez Wilson LB
I believe a new regime in Carolina is going to bring a new quarterback. Cam Newton has one attribute in excess more so than Blaine Gabbert-Charisma. I have Da'Quan Bowers falling out of the top spot due to concerns or injuries. If he checks out and still falls down the first round, some team is going to reap the benefits greatly. If Patrick Peterson falls to Cleveland at #6, it is going to be very difficult to pass on the Browns defense for years to come, pairing Peterson with Joe Haden on the corners.
The biggest reach I have is Jake Locker at #12 to Minnesota, even though previously I had him going #10 to Washington. If the Vikings believe that Joe Webb or Tavaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback for the future, it could be bleak for the offense. Locker has the skill set to play in the NFL, and if he can get his accuracy under control, he will not be a reach at all at #12 for Minnesota.
One thing about this draft is certain. A team is really going to have to screw up in Round 1 to be labeled a loser. But you never know. There is always a team that believes a player such as Darrius Heyward-Bey is worthy of the seventh overall pick.
In 2010, there were basically three players seen as having the potential to go #1 overall in the draft. They were Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy. Of all the mock drafts I accumulated leading up to the draft, they were the only 3 players that the draftniks had slotted at the top. This year, I have seen 7 players at the top of the mocks. And the player many see as the top prospect, Patrick Peterson, has not been placed at #1 overall. At least none that I have found.
So here is the TMG DraftZone 2011 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, and I because of all the uncertainty, I will make one more mock draft the afternoon of Round 1. By then one might think the draft order would be a bit more settled. But you never know.
1) Carolina Cam Newton QB
2) Denver Marcell Dareus DT
3) Buffalo Nick Fairley DT
4) Cincinnati A.J. Green WR
5) Arizona Blaine Gabbert QB
6) Cleveland Patrick Peterson CB
7) San Francisco Prince Amukamara CB
8) Tennessee Von Miller LB
9) Dallas Da'Quan Bowers DE
10) Washington Julio Jones WR
11) Houston Robert Quinn DE
12) Minnesota Jake Locker QB
13) Detroit Tyron Smith OT
14) St. Louis J.J. Watt DE
15) Miami Mark Ingram RB
16) Jacksonville Cameron Jordan DE
17) New England Mike Pouncey OG
18) San Diego Aldon Smith DE
19) NY Giants Anthony Castanzo OT
20) Tampa Bay Ryan Kerrigan DE
21) Kansas City Akeem Ayers LB
22) Indianapolis Nate Solder OT
23) Philadelphia Brandon Harris CB
24) New Orleans Stephen Paea DT
25) Seattle Adrian Clayborn DE
26) Baltimore Cameron Heyward DE
27) Atlanta Torrey Smith WR
28) New England Corey Liuget DT
29) Chicago Gabe Carimi OT
30) NY Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DE
31) Pittsburgh Derek Sherrod OT
32) Green Bay Martez Wilson LB
I believe a new regime in Carolina is going to bring a new quarterback. Cam Newton has one attribute in excess more so than Blaine Gabbert-Charisma. I have Da'Quan Bowers falling out of the top spot due to concerns or injuries. If he checks out and still falls down the first round, some team is going to reap the benefits greatly. If Patrick Peterson falls to Cleveland at #6, it is going to be very difficult to pass on the Browns defense for years to come, pairing Peterson with Joe Haden on the corners.
The biggest reach I have is Jake Locker at #12 to Minnesota, even though previously I had him going #10 to Washington. If the Vikings believe that Joe Webb or Tavaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback for the future, it could be bleak for the offense. Locker has the skill set to play in the NFL, and if he can get his accuracy under control, he will not be a reach at all at #12 for Minnesota.
One thing about this draft is certain. A team is really going to have to screw up in Round 1 to be labeled a loser. But you never know. There is always a team that believes a player such as Darrius Heyward-Bey is worthy of the seventh overall pick.
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