2013 DSA Player Rankings 3.0 Post-Combine Edition

The 2013 NFL Scouting Combine has come and gone, and it is time for the DSA Palyer Rankings 3.0, the Post-Combine Edition. The players have done the drills, taken the tests, and interviewed until they are blue in the face. Now it is time to analyze the results of last weekend in Indianapolis. The players that have stood out the most, for better or worse, are also the ones that are taking the biggest hits on their mock draft ratings, and in the DSA Player Rankings. The biggest drop was from Johnathon Hankins, who many see as a player who should have stayed in college another year. Hankins is talented, and can be a premier run stopper, but he still needs some polishing. Hankins fell 12 spots, but he still looks to be a late first/early second round pick. The next three biggest drops came from players who either underperformed or didn't perform at all. In the previous DSA Player Rankings, Damontre Moore dropped from #3 to #9. Now Moore has dropped another 10 spots to #19. His on-field workouts were lackluster, and his showing in the weight room was less than stellar. Moore could still be a top 10 selection in the upcoming draft, but his pro day workout had better be impressive. Two players that did not work out and who are taking hits on their draft stack are Jarvis Jones and Star Lotulelei. Jones chose not to work out, but questions concerning his spinal stenosis have thrown up red flags about his long term health. But the biggest health concern came from Lotulelei. He was shown to have a circulation problem with a heart ventricle, and he did not get a chance to show teams that he is the dominant defensive tackle on the draft boards. Lotulelei fell 10 spots, and Jones fell nine. The biggest sideshow of the combine was Manti Te'o. He answered all the questions concerning his alleged girlfriend and the whole catfish hoax, but he failed to impress on the field. His 40 time of 4.82 was slower than expected, and he did not stand out from the pack. Coupled with his poor showing in the BCS Championship Game, his draft stock is going even further down. Te'o fell another 8 spots in the latest DSA Player Rankings. Perhaps the oddest drop belongs to Bjoern Werner. But his fall in the DSA's is indicitive of how wide open this draft is going to be. Werner fell 6 spots, but in 4 of the 10 mock drafts I used for this DSA Rankings he was listed at #2 on the boards to Jacksonville, and on antoher Werner was 3rd. But Werner was also placed at #18 three times and #19 once. The draft is loaded with a lot of very good players that could go anywhere in Round 1 or Round 2. This is very much a 15/35/55 Draft. The player that goes at #55 is going to be as good as the one at #35, and that player is going to be as good as the one at #15. The biggest movers up are, for the most part, at the top of the DSA's. Ezekiel Ansah gained 10 spots, and Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd gained 6 each. Eric Fisher moved up three spots to take over the 2nd slot, and Dee Milliner gained four spots to #4. Both players had excellent workouts, and it has shown in their placements at the top of mock drafts everywhere. Cornelius Carradine made the biggest jump of all, moving up into the top of the class to #27. His physical ability has teams intrigued, and between Carradine and Margus Hunt it will be fun to watch which one moves up the charts the fastest. Hunt looks to be the second coming of J.J. Watt-tall, athletic, with the ability to swat down passes and kicks with the greatest of ease. But he is a raw talent and teams see the potential. Hunt will be the biggest mover up the draft boards in the coming weeks. Luke Joeckel remains at the top of the DSA's, and with Alex Smith on his way to Kansas City, he looks to stay there a while. If the Chiefs re-sign Brandon Albert, they may look to a pass rusher. But for now the #1 pick of the draft looks to be the player who has been rated at the top of everyone's draft boards since Day 1, and Joeckel is the pick. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 3.0, the Post Combine Edition: 1) Luke Joeckel 2.10 2) Eric Fisher 5.50 3) Geno Smith 5.50 4) Dee Milliner 5.80 5) Dion Jordan 7.60 6) Sharrif Floyd 8.10 7) Ezekiel Ansah 9.30 8) Bjoern Werner 9.60 9) Barkevious Mingo 9.60 10) Chance Warmack 11.30 11) Lane Johnson 12.00 12) Sheldon Richardson 13.10 13) Cordarrelle Patterson 13.60 14) Star Lotulelei 15.00 15) Jarvis Jones 16.00 16) Xavier Rhodes 17.20 17) Kenny Vaccaro 17.20 18) Jonathon Cooper 17.90 19) Damontre Moore 18.20 20) Keenan Allen 22.20 21) Tavon Austin 25.50 22) Matt Barkley 26.00 23) Tyler Eifert 26.10 24) D.J. Fluker 27.10 25) Desmond Trufant 28.00 26) Datone Jones 28.80 27) Cornelius Carradine 29.40 28) DeAndre Hopkins 29.90 29) Alec Ogletree 30.00 30) Kawann Short 30.20 31) Manti Te'o 31.20 32) Jesse Williams 31.30 33) Johnathon Hankins 32.00 34) Eddie Lacy 32.40 35) Johnathon Cyprien 32.50 36) Alex Okafor 33.70 37) Jonathon Banks 34.00 38) Matt Elam 34.40 One strange anomoly of this DSA is the big score gap in the middle of the rankings. Normally, a difference of 3 points between spots is a big gap. But from Damontre Moore at #19 to Tavon Austin at #21, there is a difference of nearly 8 points. Players are finding their way to spots all over the mock drafts. The rumors have Matt Barkley going to Arizona at #7, and there are those who say he won't go in the first round at all. Barkley has made his way up to #22, but the fact he was not in six of the 10 mock drafts that make up this DSA shows that there is a great difference of opinion concerning the draft. We are going to see a lot more in the weeks to come. The question now is 'Who is going to separate themselves at their Pro Day workouts?' In the next seven weeks before the 2013 NFL Draft, we are going to find out.

DSA Player Rankings 2.0

You can call this version of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings the Pre-Draft Combine Edition. The Annual NFL Draft Combine started today, and for many players it is wonderful opportunity to impress coaches and front office personnel as to why they should be selected by their teams and how high in the draft they should go. I was very interested to see who the movers are in the latest DSA Player Rankings. Those who are getting to love from the mock drafters and those who are seen as being on the outs. The three biggest advances were Sharrif Floyd, who moved up nine spots to #12, and Floyd can very easily move up even more. He is getting very high draft slots, and quite a few are projecting the defensive tackle to go as high as #3 overall to Oakland. The next two players who made the biggest gains were Datone Jones and Kawann Short, both of whom were not even listed on the first DSA Player Rankings of 2013, but a little research showed that they each improved eight positions. I can see both moving up along with Floyd, and I can see Jones maknig a move into the top half of the first round. The biggest drops came from two different players for different reasons. Big Drop #2 came from Manti Te'o, as questions concerning his off field behavior in his catfishing episode and, most importantly, his on field performance against Alabama in the BCS Championship Game, have many wondering how effective he will be as a pro. But the biggest drop came for Damontre Moore. Even though Moore was listed as the #3 overall pick in half of the mock drafts I sampled, he was listed at #21 in one and not in the first round in another. Moore is still in the top 10, but a drop of six spots came about due to those low draft slots. I can see Moore making his way back up to the top 5 in no time. But the players who are not getting any love at all are the quarterbacks. Geno Smith fell one spot to #3, and not as many people are convinced that Kansas City will take the signal caller at the top. But Smith was the only quarterback in the top 32. I'm still convinced there will be a run on quarterbacks in Round 1, but it looks more and more it will be at the bottom of the draft through trades and teams moving up. So here is the 2013 DSA Player Rankings 2.0, the Pre-Draft Combine Edition: 1) Luke Joeckel 2.50 2) Bjoern Werner 3.70 3) Geno Smith 4.80 4) Star Lotuleili 6.50 5) Eric Fisher 7.50 6) Jarvis Jones 7.60 7) Barkevious Mingo 8.60 8) Dee Milliner 9.30 9) Damontre Moore 10.20 10) Chance Warmack 10.40 11) Dion Jordan 11.80 12) Sharrif Floyd 13.50 13) Lane Johnson 14.70 14) Cordarrelle Patterson 15.10 15) Kenny Vaccaro 16.50 16) Sheldon Richardson 17.60 17) Ezekiel Ansah 18.20 18) Keenan Allen 18.50 19) Jonathon Cooper 22.90 20) Xavier Rhodes 23.00 21) Johnathon Hankins 23.90 22) Alec Ogletree 24.20 23) Manti Te'o 25.60 24) Kevin Minter 26.00 25) Desmond Trufant 27.50 26) Tavon Austin 28.00 27) D.J. Fluker 29.50 28) Johnathon Banks 30.40 29) Datone Jones 30.70 30) Kawann Short 31.00 31) Zach Ertz 31.70 32) Tyler Eifert 33.30 The NFL Draft Combine concludes on Sunday. I'll put up my Post-Draft Combine Edition of the DSA Player Rankings right afterwards. It will be interesting to see who has made the biggest and best impressions on the mock drafters with their performance this weekend ni Indianapolis.

TMG DraftZone 2013 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

My first DSA Player Rankings showed a nearly even result as to who the #1 pick in the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft will be. Will Kansas City go with a quarterback, presumeably Geno Smith, or the top rated player in most eyes with tackle Luke Joeckel? With my first mock draft for 2013, and as I have stated previously, I believe that the player the Chiefs will take #1 is going to be Geno Smith. If that is the case, then Joeckel should go off the board next, but Jacksonville and Oakland need help on the defensive side of the ball, especially getting to the quarterback. So Philadelphia looks to get a gift and the left tackle they need with the 4th overall selection. Normally, I would only be releasing one or two mock drafts a year, but this isn't a normal year. No true standouts at the top of the draft and a host of good, solid talent that could very easily go anywhere in Round 1. I have also posted before that I believe 5 quarterbacks will go in the first round, and you will notice that I only have two listed. I look for the bottom of Round 1 to be dominated by trades on draft day, and since there is no way of guessing who will be trading with who I'll hold off guessing where the quarterbacks will be drafted. So here is the first TMG DraftZone mock draft for 2013: 1) Kansas City--Geno Smith (Quarterback) 2) Jacksonville--Jarvis Jones (Outside Linebacker) 3) Oakland--Damontre Moore (Defensive End) 4) Philadelphia--Luke Joeckel (Tackle) 5) Detroit--Dee Milliner (Cornerback) 6) Cleveland--Bjoern Werner (Defensive End) 7) Arizona--Eric Fisher (Tackle) 8) Buffalo--Tyler Wilson (Quarterback) 9) NY Jets--Barkevious Mingo (Defensive End) 10) Tennessee--Star Lotulelei (Defensive Tackle) 11) San Diego--Dion Jordan (Defensive End) 12) Miami--Cordarrelle Patterson (Wide Receiver) 13) Tampa Bay--Xavier Rhodes (Cornerback) 14) Carolina--Sheldon Richardson (Defensive Tackle) 15) New Orleans--Ezekiel Ansah (Defensive End) 16) St. Louis--Chance Warmack (Guard) 17) Pittsburgh--Kenny Vaccaro (Safety) 18) Dallas--Manti Te'o (Middle Linebacker) 19) NY Giants--Lane Johnson (Tackle) 20) Chicago--Jonathon Cooper (Guard) 21) Cincinnati--Sam Montgomery (Defensive End) 22) St. Louis--Keenan Allen (Wide Receiver) 23) Minnesota--Sharrif Floyd (Defensive Tackle) 24) Indianapolis--Johnathon Hankins (Defensive Tackle) 25) Seattle--Tavon Austin (Wide Receiver) 26) Green Bay--Eddie Lacy (Running Back) 27) Houston--Kevin Minter (Middle Linebacker) 28) Denver--Tyler Eifert (Tight End) 29) New England--Robert Woods (Wide Receiver) 30) Atlanta--Kawann Short (Defensive Tackle) 31) San Francisco--Matt Elam (Safety) 32) Baltimore--Barrett Jones (Center) One player I did not have in my mock draft was Alec Ogletree, the talented middle linebacker. His off the field problems continue this weekend, and a player with the talent to go in the top 10 looks to be falling a long way down the draft boards. A lot of people will tell you that to succeed in the NFL you need a quarterback and to get to the quarterback. I can see defense ruling the day at the draft. My mock draft has 18 defensive players going in Round 1, and of those 12 are lineman or linebackers whose job it is to get the quarterback and put him on the ground. Last year Seattle made quite a reach in Round 1 to get Bruce Irvin to do just that, and we will have to wait and see if a team will risk doing that this year. But there is a lot of talent to go around, and I for one will not be surprised to see a player that gets overlooked suddenly pop up out of nowhere to go in the first round. With the NFL Scouting Combine next week, the stage is there for a player to shine and move his way up. We shall see.

2013 DSA Player Rankings 1.0

I missed writing my TMG DraftZone blog, and it's time to make up for lost time, so to speak. I've been compiling mock draft data, and the information shows what I mentioned in my last entry. There are a lot of good, solid players, and it shows with the sheer number of players that people see as first round worthy. In the 10 mock drafts I used for the first installment of the 2013 DSA Player Rankings, there were 55 players that were put in at least 1 mock draft. Somewhere along the line, there are going to be others that also get mentioned. Which means that the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft is going to be filled with players that have first round grades. What this year's draft lacks in star power it makes up for in volume. That lack of star power is revealed with only 15 players being mentioned in all 10 mock drafts I researched. Outside of Luke Joeckel, I'd have to classify the rest as a Safe Bet to Succeed rather than a Sure Fire Lock to Star in the NFL. But for me the most interesting mock draft picks concern the quarterbacks. Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon were only mentioned in 3 mocks, and Matt Barkley in just 1. But all three were put in the Top 10 of those mock drafts. That may be the strangest thing I've seen in all the years I've been doing this. Teams that seem to need a quarterback lead people to say that they need a quarterback, then the teams start believing that they really need a quarterback and they reach when they should be patient. It's going to be a fun draft season. Without me rambling on much more (I'll save that for later in this blog), here is the first installment of the TMG DraftZone DSA Player Rankings: 1) Luke Joeckel 3.10 2) Geno Smith 3.30 3) Damontre Moore 5.10 4) Bjoern Werner 5.60 5) Star Lotulelei 6.90 6) Dee Milliner 7.60 7) Jarvis Jones 7.90 8) Eric Fisher 9.00 9) Barkevious Mingo 9.90 10) Dion Jordan 11.60 11) Chance Warmack 13.50 12) Sheldon Richardson 15.50 13) Ezekiel Ansah 16.30 14) Lane Johnson 17.90 15) Kenny Vaccaro 18.20 16) Keenan Allen 19.40 17) Cordarrelle Patterson 20.60 18) Manti Te'o 21.30 19) Jonathon Cooper 21.60 20) Alec Ogletree 22.50 21) Sharrif Floyd 23.30 22) Xavier Rhodes 23.60 23) Johnathon Hankins 24.10 24) D.J. Fluker 26.90 25) Kevin Minter 27.20 26) Johnathon Banks 28.00 27) John Jenkins 28.40 28) Tyler Wilson 28.90 29) Tyler Eifert 29.00 30) Mike Glennon 29.80 31) Zack Ertz 30.00 32) Jesse Williams 30.30 33) Tavon Austin 31.40 34) Sam Montgomery 31.60 35) Eric Reid 31.60 It is going to be a draft heavily weighted to the defense. Of the 35 players I have listed with a first round DSA Player Ranking average, 21 are on the defensive side of the ball. The lack of pretty boy offensive skill players is also very evident. Three wide receivers, two tight ends and three quarterbacks. No running backs. The Big Uglies up front are going to be the featured players in 2013. Can the Pretty Boy Quarterbacks make inroads at the top of the draft? I get the feeling that come draft weekend in April, the quarterbacks are all that we will be hearing about. When I post the next DSA Player Rankings, let's see who the movers are and how much. It's going to be a fun draft season in 2013.

Round and Round the Mock Drafts Go

The TMG DraftZone is back after a brief hiatus. As much as I love writing about the NFL Draft and the mock draft industry that surrounds it, family and work have taken precedence lately. But after compiling my initial data for the 2013 NFL Draft there are a number of trends starting to emerge. It is pretty clear that the best player, the one with the most upside, and the one with the best chance at success in the NFL is the same player: Luke Joeckel. The top offensive tackle prospect out of Texas A&M looks to be the only player certain to go in the top 5 at this time. Kansas City needs him to anchor it's line, Jacksonville and Oakland could really use him to protect their quarterbacks, whoever they may end up playing at the position, and Philadelphia should thank the football gods if Joeckel falls to them at #4 overall. If for some reason Joeckel goes to #5, either Detroit will take him or someone will trade up to get him. I'll take that to the bank now. From what I have seen so far, the rest of the first round is up for grabs. I believe that Kansas City will take Geno Smith with the #1 overall pick. I've seen mock drafts with Joeckel there as well. I've also seen a mock draft with Tyler Wilson going #1. That is also the only mock draft that even has Wilson going in the first round. I've seen people put Mike Glennon in the top 10 to either Buffalo or the New York Jets. Or not in the first round at all. But Panic in the Draft Room will set in, and both will end up going in the first round. If they do not go early, the trade frenzy at the end of Round 1 will be off the charts. Teams like Arizona, Jacksonville, and the aforementioned Jets and Bills should be looking to get the best player available at the top of Round 1, then trading back up to get a quarterback. and I'm sure there will be a number of trading partners available. Can you picture the New England Patriots NOT making a deal? Or Baltimore. Teams that have a history of making deals and still getting the players they want. It's going to happen. I'm going to make my February Bold Prediction: Even though there are no superstar quarterbacks coming into the 2013 NFL Draft, there will be 5 quarterbacks taken in the First Round. Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib. I see two of them going in the Top 10, and the other three going in the last 10 picks of the First Round. The reason teams will be making deals is that there is a depth of good, solid players throughout the draft. Players that the right team can pick in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds, sit for a while, get them acclimated to the NFL, and then become productive starters. I have started to see players projected to go in the top 5 in some Mock Drafts and in the second half of Round 1 as well. Players are all over the board, even more than usual. I'm sure there will be some settling in the mock draft process. There always is. The NFL Scouting Combine is less than 2 weeks away, followed by Pro Days at campuses all across the nation. The process should sort itself out, but this year is crazy enough that anything can happen. Welcome to the 2013 NFL Draft. Let the fun begin.