Measuring the Combine

The 2014 NFL Scouting Combine is underway in Indianapolis. The prospects have been weighed and measures, and they are now going through their on-field workouts. And for the first time, the biggest discussion concerning the quarterbacks has been the hand measurements. I have already posted about why I feel the Houston Texans should take Teddy Bridgewater with the 1st Overall Pick of the draft. Now there are concerns about the size of his hands and whether he can hold onto the ball and make accurate passes in bad weather. I get the feeling that analysts are trying to raise the bar on nit-picking in leading up to the draft. Don't get me wrong. I understand the concerns. If a quarterback has a bigger hand, they can hold on to the ball better, especially in colder weather. But don't they make gloves to help a quarterback do just that? Jim McMahon wore gloves back in 1985 for the Chicago Bears, and he said it helped him throw a better pass. So much that he even wore them in the Super Bowl indoors at the Superdome. So to me that is less of a concern. But if you want to see how well Bridgewater can handle bad weather, go back and take a look at his game film from his sophomore season at Louisville. Having watched the Cardinals play that season on their way to the Sugar Bowl, Bridgewater played in rain and even more rain in over half of the games that season. Bridgewater played exceptionally all season, and I have no doubts that he can handle the weather in the NFL. What does worry me about Bridgewater is that he will not be participating in on-field drills at The Combine. I'm watching the wide receivers work out now, and they are catching passes from Blake Bortles and A.J. McCarron. I have always been a foremost advocate of quarterbacks throwing in the receiver drills, as it shows just how quickly a passer can adapt to changing instructions and how well they can adjust to different receivers. But Johnny Manziel and Derek Carr are not throwing in these drills either, for what it's worth. When I see a a quarterback not throw at The Combine, I think back to Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. Newton did throw, and didn't look very good. Gabbert didn't throw at all, on the advice of his agent, just like Bridgewater, Manziel and Carr this year. But the teams saw the ability and desire of Newton to work on his game, and he threw much better at his Pro Day. It almost looked like Gabbert was trying to hide his flaws, and those have been exposed in his time with the Jaguars. If I were giving advice to a quarterback, I'd tell him to go out and throw as much as possible at The Combine, show how much and how readily you are wanting to learn, and to have fun. Go out and show that the size of your hands have no bearing on how well you can throw the ball. But most of all have fun and enjoy yourself. It's a job interview. Show your potential employers how much you enjoy playing football, and how much your chosen path means to you. It's tough to do that standing on the sidelines.

2014 DSA Player Rankings 1.0

It is time to reveal the first DSA Player Rankings from the TMG Draft Zone for 2014. Apologies for the delay in bringing the rankings to you as work has delayed my research in the past week. But I have been putting together the mock drafts, and the first DSA's of the year have proved that this year is going to be all about star power at the top of the draft. The Houston Texans have yet to tip their hand as to who they may take with the 1st Overall Pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, and I do not suspect they will any time soon. So mock drafts everywhere have Houston taking any number of players at the top. The Texans need a quarterback, and you can find mocks with Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, or Johnny Manziel listed first. Or they could go for the best player in the draft, and you will also for Jadaveon Clowney rated at the top. But you will also find the three quarterbacks as far down as #8 to Minnesota, and Clowney no more then 5th to Oakland. Which is why Clowney leads the way in the first DSA Player Rankings of 2014. Sammy Watkins edged out Jake Matthews for the fifth slot, but they took very different paths to get there. Watkins can be found in just about any mock draft in the neighborhood of #5 to #7 for Tampa Bay. Matthews has as many postings at #2 to St. Louis as he does at #11 to Tennessee. The top 9 slots are rounded out by Greg Robinson, Khalil Mack, and Anthony Barr. It would not be much of a stretch to say, even this early in the process, that these nine players will be the first names called going down to Buffalo and their pick at #9. The one player would could easily find his way there is Derek Carr. Carr is #18, but 40% of the mock drafts I researched did not list him in the first round, and the others all had him at #8 to Minnesota. Carr certainly has to talent to compete with the top three QB's, and his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and pro day at Fresno State will go a long way to determining where he goes in the draft. I have already written about the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Clowney at #3, then getting their quarterback in Round 2. If Carr does get past the Vikings in Round 1, I wonder how frantic the phone lines will be in the Jags draft office to make a trade. I can picture the Cleveland Browns being a likely trading partner with the 26th Pick they acquired from Indianapolis. If the Browns take a QB at #4, they may want to add more draft picks to their already sizable stockpile this year. Jacksonville would be moving up nine spots, and sending their second rounder plus a couple of late round picks, or a higher pick next year, could very well net the Jaguars a top flight signal caller to build around this coming season. So here is the DSA Player Rankings 1.0, exclusive to the TMG Draft Zone, for the 2014 NFL Draft: 1) Jadaveon Clowney 2.60 2) Teddy Bridgewater 3.00 3) Blake Bortles 3.70 4) Johnny Manziel 3.70 5) Sammy Watkins 5.50 6) Jake Matthews 5.80 7) Greg Robinson 6.70 8) Khalil Mack 7.70 9) Anthony Barr 8.80 10) C.J. Mosley 13.00 11) Taylor Lewan 14.40 12) Darqueze Dennard 15.00 13) Mike Evans 15.70 14) Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 16.10 15) Eric Ebron 16.60 16) Marquise Lee 17.40 17) Justin Gilbert 18.90 18) Derek Carr 19.10 19) Cyrus Kouandijo 20.00 20) Ra'Shade Hageman 22.30 21) Louis Nix 22.80 22) Calvin Pryor 23.60 23) Zack Martin 24.60 24) Kony Ealy 24.80 25) Kelvin Benjamin 24.90 26) Tim Jernigan 26.60 27) Jace Amaro 28.90 28) Jason Varrett 29.40 29) Stephon Tuitt 30.10 30) Allen Robinson 30.60 31) Aaron Donald 30.60 32) Odell Beckham 31.50 Three players I want to keep an eye on up to and just past the NFL Scouting Combine, and where they start to find themselves in mock drafts everywhere, and Eric Ebron, Kelvin Benjamin, and Calvin Pryor. Ebron and Benjamin are both physical marvels, but Ebron has the polish and Benjamin is a work in progress. But teams love to have big targets such as these 2, and I can see both moving up draft boards everywhere. As for Pryor, teams are really starting to go with the physical safeties to play the middle of the field, and though Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix has long been seen as the top player at that position, there are many who see Pryor as one with just as much talent as Clinton-Dix, and the value placed at the position recently could move him up to the middle of the first round, possible to St. Louis at #13. The NFL Scouting Combine is coming up in less than 3 weeks, and it will be interesting to see who is getting some buzz talk going before, and then who will be the biggest winner coming out of Indianapolis later this month.

Defense Wins Championships

The Seattle Seahawks proved the old adage true tonight in putting a WWE-style smackdown on the Denver Broncos 43-8 to capture the Super Bowl. My prediction of a 3 point Denver win was off just a little (to say the least!), but I'm not sure too many people saw this coming. But I think it is safe to say that the rout was spotted about 12 seconds into the game when a botched snap led to a safety, and it was all downhill from there for Denver. I can't help but think what this win for Seattle will do for the draft stock of defensive players going into the upcoming 2014 NFL Draft. Yes, having a franchise quarterback is important, don't get me wrong, but if you have a defense that can go facemask to facemask with the best in the game and completely shut them down like the Seahawks did then there are going to be a lot of teams rethink their draft plan and who they might take in May. After all, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. It was pointed out during the broadcast that the Seahawks defense was built from the back forward, and that is very much against the norm. A front four can get pressure on the quarterback if he doesn't have any one to throw to, and with Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and friends in the secondary, it was nearly impossible all season for opponents of Seattle. Looking at the top draft prospects, I can easily see Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Calvin Pryor, Justin Gilbert, Darqueze Dennard, Jason Varrett and all of the top secondary prospects moving up the draft boards for the next three months. And if I were scouting for an NFL team, I'd take a look at corners that can physically match up with receivers even though they may not have the speed one has usually coveted. If a corner can win the battle off the line of scrimmage, it is easier to keep coverage throughout the play. Who needs catch up speed if you are already blanketing the target. With the season over, I'll start gathering my DSA Player Ranking data and putting out my own mock drafts. This is a time that I always look forward to, the time when hope springs eternal. Until that first bad draft pick for your team makes you yell out 'WHAT THE BLEEP WERE THEY THINKING!!!'

Super Sunday from New Jersey

The loyal readers of the TMG Draft Zone will remember the comments I made about the Super Bowl being held in an outdoor stadium at a cold weather location from back in May 2010, right after the announcement came down that the big game would be in New Jersey following the 2013 season. I said back then that the big weather concern would be the wind, and it looks like it may play a part after all. How much the wind swirls is going to directly affect how the ducks of Peyton Manning flutter around the yard, and in a close game as most seem to think we will have, I can see the outcome being determined by the kicking game. A little breeze here, a gust there, and the ball is wide right or left, and Super Dreams are lost. My prediction for the game: Denver 23, Seattle 20. Matt Prater makes the game winning kick, his third of the day, in spite of the conditions at the buzzer, and no one remembers because Manning will get all the press. Perhaps in time they will, as has happened with Adam Vinateri and his game winner for New England. But for now, the quarterbacks will be all the talk of the game. Just like they will be come draft day in May.