Saturday, April 16, 2011

Franchising in the 2nd Round

Going into the NFL Draft, teams that don't already their franchise quarterback are on the lookout for one. Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and is also the face of the franchise. Selecting the right player can put a franchise on the path to greatness. The wrong pick can set a team back for years.

The last three years, there has been at least one quarterback seen as the franchise quarterback of the draft. Sam Bradford in 2010, Matthew Stafford in 2009, and Matt Ryan in 2008. The Jets saw Mark Sanchez as their guy in 2009, and traded up to the #5 spot to select him. Bradford, Ryan and Sanchez have lived up to their lofty billing, while Stafford is still trying to overcome the injury bug that has plagued him so far. In 2011, the two players seen as the franchise quarterbacks of the future are Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton, and both will be gone early in the first round.

There has been a lot of talk lately about as many as 6 quarterbacks going in the first round, with Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and even Ricky Stanzi moving into the first round. Conventional wisdom would suggest that if someone sees six signal callers as first round talents, that a team can still select them in the second round and get a franchise quarterback. But in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.

Going back to the 2000 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 12 quarterbacks selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft. Yes, only twelve. Currently, there are eleven quarterbacks that are starters in the NFL that were selected in the third round or later, or not at all. Of the 12 selected since 2000, the only one that you could consider as a franchise quarterback would be Drew Brees. Kevin Kolb was a second round pick in 2007, but as of now he is a backup to Michael Vick, although once the lockout is lifted he will most likely become a franchise quarterback for another team.

Of the 12, only Jimmy Clausen and Chad Henne are starters other than Brees. And it could be argued that neither one is going to be starting in 2011. Quincy Carter and Marques Tuiasosopo were selected after Brees in 2001. Kellen Clemens and Tavaris Jackson in 2006. John Beck and Drew Stanton along with Kolb in 2007. Brian Brohm with Henne in 2009, and Pat White in 2009. But what caught my eye was that in 2000, and 2002-2005 there were no quarterbacks selected in the second round.

The second round seems to be a no man's land for quarterbacks. Not as much pressure on them as there are on the first rounders, but also not as much talent and potential. Good enough to play right away and drafted high enough that there isn't as much patience afforded to a later round draft pick. If you look at the second tier quarterbacks in 2011, Mallett and Locker have the talent to go in the first round and perform to that level. The rest would be better served going after round 2. They are all talented quarterbacks, but franchise quarterbacks they are not. All of them will need time and patience, and if they are selected early in the draft they may not get the opportunity they truly need to shine in the NFL.

The NFL Draft has been and always will be part scientific evaluation of talent, part crap shoot. The quarterback position only magnifies this situation. Only time will tell how these prospects handle the position. It will also be interesting to see just how much or how little patience they are afforded. As everyone knows, time is a luxury not allowed to a non-winning franchise.

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