With the 1st pick of the 2013 NFL Draft

The Kansas City Chiefs select...well, if they could, the Chiefs would take any number of players (but that isn't going to happen). The 2012 season for Kansas City was bad enough. The the tragic events surrounding Javon Belcher made it a nightmare to forget. But the games went on, and now the Chiefs enter a new year with a new coach and a chance to make a fresh start. The first overall selection of the 2013 Draft will be an important part of that rebuilding project. New coaches coming in with the 1st pick have a tendency to take a quarterback that they see as the cornerstone they can build around. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. Cleveland and Houston were expansion teams, but the selection of Tim Couch and David Carr did not work out in either instance. Marvin Lewis brought in Carson Palmer to Cincinnati in 2003, and Year 3 brought a division title. But knee and elbow injuries to Palmer only led to one more division title the next five years. Jim Schwartz came to Detroit in 2009, drafted Matthew Stafford, and in their third year as well the Lions made the playoffs. But last year was a major setback in Detroit, and time will tell if coach and quarterback can get Detroit back on track. Perhaps the best new coach/high draft pick combinations to come in together with a team recently were Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia in 1999, and Mike Smith and Matt Ryan in Atlanta in 2008. Although McNabb went 2nd and Ryan went 3rd, I can guarantee you that the teams picking first both years wish they had those selections over to do again. Smith and Ryan are going to the NFC Championship game this weekend, and are in the playoffs for the 4th time in 5 years. Miami had the 1st pick in 2008, and even though Jake Long is one of the best left tackles in the game, the Dolphins have one playoff appearance since then and their quarterback carousel took until 2012 before it finally landed on Ryan Tannehill. McNabb wasn't even the Browns' second choice in 1999. That would have been Akili Smith, who went 3rd to Cincinnati. Cleveland and Cincinnati watched their picks flame out within four seasons, while Reid and McNabb went to 5 NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. Which brings us to 2013. Reid is now coaching Kansas City, and has the 1st Overall selection of the draft. The Chiefs need a quarterback. Matt Cassell and Brady Quinn are not going to cut it. It seems pretty clear cut. Take a quarterback. One problem. This isn't 2012. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are not in the draft this year. Neither is Ryan Tannehill or Russell Wilson. The problem is that the quarterback class of 2013 is about as weak as it has been in recent memory. But I still see Kansas City taking a quarterback #1, and that player is Geno Smith. Even though his final year at West Virginia stalled out at the end after a blazing start, I believe Smith is the quarterback Reid is looking for. Very good size. Mobile and able to move in the pocket and run out of it as well. Good arm strength and very accurate. Doesn't that sound a lot like Donovan McNabb? I write about this every year, and 2013 is no different. Panic in the Draft Room. Teams that need a qaurterback make a reach for someone they could get later in the draft. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But one reason I see Smith going to Kansas City and benig a success is the personnel already there. The Chiefs may have only been 2-14, but they sent 5 players to the Pro Bowl. One of those players is someone Reid never had in Philadelphia, and that is Jamaal Charles. All those great teams the Eagles had never once put out a running back that was the main focus of the offense. Charles can take the pressure off of Smith much the same way that Adrian Peterson has in Minnesota with Christian Ponder. But it doesn't always work that way. Jake Locker in Tennessee and Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville have star backs ni Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew, but a combination of injuries, holdouts, and just plain lack of production has hindered the developments of the young signal callers. The Chiefs could play the waiting game on draft weekend. Take Luke Joeckel, the massive left tackle and the best prospect in the draft, and wait until Round 2 or perhaps trade up to get a quarterback. Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon could still be around. But I don't see it happening. Barring an unforeseen disaster at the Scouting Combine or at his pro day, Geno Smith is going first in the 2013 NFL Draft to the Kansas City Chiefs. I say this because I don't see Andy Reid starting the year with Matt Cassell or Brady Quinn as his starting quarterback. Smith and Reid are a very good match, and I see it happening in April at the 2013 NFL Draft.